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* It’s no big news that Barack Obama is crushing Hillary Clinton in the Tribune’s new statewide poll of Illinois. It’s probably also no surprise that Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is surging here, because he seems to be surging just about everywhere.
So, let’s look at some of the other poll questions, which, upon reflection, probably aren’t a huge surprise, either. For instance…
Reflecting the optimism of Democrats heading into the election year, 82 percent said they viewed the party’s chances of retaking the White House after eight years as very good to excellent. Republicans were much more pessimistic. Among GOP voters, only 45 percent viewed their chances of holding onto the presidency as very good to excellent.
* GOP voters are also pessimistic about their own candidates…
Only 20 percent of Republicans said they were “very satisfied” with their field of candidates, compared with 45 percent of Democrats.
* And this result shows just how difficult it will be for a Republican to win in November…
Despite months of national polls showing low ratings for President Bush, particularly over the issues of the progress of the Iraq War and the state of the economy, 63 percent of Illinois Republicans approve of the job he is doing. At least 70 percent of Huckabee, Romney and Thompson voters give Bush high approval ratings, while the president receives the highest disapproval rating — 38 percent — from supporters of McCain, the man Bush defeated in the race for the Republican nomination nearly eight years ago.
It’s gonna be tough for the Republican nominee to distance himself from the hugely unpopular incumbent and still hold the base, which still likes the man.
* The survey found Obama leading among Democrats with 50 percent, to 25 percent for Clinton and 7 percent for Edwards. There was this, however…
When Democratic voters were asked, regardless of their personal choice for president, which candidate would have the best chance of defeating a Republican next November, 39 percent said Clinton and 37 percent said Obama. Among those believing the New York senator and former first lady would win out were a quarter of those who said they are backing Obama. In contrast, only 7 percent of those backing Clinton said they thought Obama was the most electable Democrat.
* Among Republicans…
The survey of 500 likely Republican voters, who were polled Dec. 9 to 13, found Giuliani with the support of 23 percent, Huckabee with 21 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 14 percent, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona with 12 percent and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee with 11 percent. The poll also found U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 3 percent and U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado with 1 percent. Other candidates had 1 percent backing while 14 percent of those polled were undecided.
* More national stuff, compiled by Paul…
* Plenty of opportunity in state GOP
* Word on the Street: State Rep. Aaron Schock won’t permit his two congressional primary opponents to videotape him at any forums or debates. Well, it’s not that he’s not allowing it, he just won’t attend events if taping is allowed. So the net result is the same.
* Shimkus backs Schock’s bid for Congress
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:17 am
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yesss! experience trumps vision folks
Comment by Anonymous45 Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:19 am
The poll is great news for Huckabee. The poll
proves that many IL Republicans are learning about Huckabee and deciding that he’s the best candidate. I’m running for convention delegate, for him, in the 10th District.
Comment by PhilCollins Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:26 am
If Schock’s primary opponents have any sense at all they’ll make sure that anyone, somehow is taping all their forums and debates. They’ll either shut him out or force him to go back on his silly ultimatum.
Comment by Sacks Romana Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:29 am
“Well, it’s not that he’s not allowing it, he just won’t attend events if taping is allowed. So the net result is the same.”
This seems like a reasonable way to win a Congressional campaign in the 21st Century. What a moron. So if some campaign lackey shows up at Schock’s own event with a camera, Schock is just going to leave? This has to be a misunderstanding. That can’t actually be a successful politician’s strategy in this day and age.
Schock needs to take notice of what happened to Clinton’s primary campaign where she is trying to run as the incumbent. This has ‘FAIL’ written all over it.
Comment by Technophobe Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:30 am
Is Aaron Schock that much of a coward? Really?
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 10:42 am
Rick Pearson wrote in the Trib, “When Democratic voters were asked, regardless of their personal choice for president, which candidate would have the best chance of defeating a Republican next November, 39 percent said Clinton and 37 percent said Obama.”
Actually, they were statistically tied which makes perfect sense given the Dems’ apparent collective feeling both could likely win in November. If there is a statistical difference it may stem from HRC’s name recognition and knowledge of her bio as First Lady and Senator.
I’m somewhat surprised Pearson chose to spin it this way given the MOE (it was about 4 or 4.5%).
Take the same poll tomorrow and those numbers may be flipped.
Comment by Rob_N Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:07 am
What exactly is causing Republicans to back Huckabee all of a sudden? What’s his defining issue? I don’t see it. And I haven’t found THE Reagan-like candidate in the field yet.
Schock - He’s barring any debates being televised too? Yep, I’m NOT voting for him.
Comment by Crimefighter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:30 am
Hey Phil, Nice choice.
By the way, NIE stands for “National Intelligence Estimate.” You may want to pass that info up within the campaign.
The shocker for me on this is that McCain is down with Thompson. Nationwide he’s trending up but apparently not in Illinois. I thought his views were a good fit for Illinois.
The Schock thing isn’t shocking. He’s clearly not ready for prime time. He is the GOP version of Blago. We all know Schock is going to end up screwing up some office badly. As such, I’m glad he wants to be in Congress where’s he’s 1 of 435, rather than gov. or something where he can do some real damage.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:39 am
But Skeeter, those numbers would only be so comforting were the other 434 sane, rational and mature. Alas…
Comment by JonShibleyFan Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:48 am
Boy, Obama sure is being built up in Iowa.
Anything other than a crushing defeating of her at Obama’s hands is going to throw Obama on the defensive.
Comment by Johnny USA Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 11:59 am
Obama will take 75% of the D primary vote in Illinois (at least). Don’t trust polls. McCain would do much better here if he were to propose a timed, phased withdrawal from Iraq. His views on the war are well-intentioned; he’s a product of his experiences in Vietnam. But, anything less than full withdrawal within a year won’t go over well here. Giuliani will take Illinois with at least 40%, I’d say. But remember, there’s still plenty of time for the mud to be slung, and we don’t yet know whom it’ll stick to.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:38 pm
Hillary is self-destructing in Iowa…she’s not answering questions then gets mad when she’s told she’s not wanting to answer questions on camera.
Comment by Crimefighter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:38 pm
I think Dems will experience some remorse with Obama next spring should he look like he’s getting the nomination.
A combination of dirt from the Rezko trial and gaffs from him suggesting he may not be ready for the job reflected in declining polls vs a McCain/Lieberman, or Giuliani/Huckabee, or Romney.
Then there will be heck in the party trying to switch him for Gore.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:42 pm
Johnny USA I agree and I think Mrs. Obama would like a close win by Barack. She looks/acts like she’s ready to go back to Hyde Park anytime now.
Anyhow as it is said, Presidential campaigning is a marathon, not a sprint.
Comment by anon38 Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:45 pm
Get real, Baar.
What “gaffe” of Sen. Obama has come close the following:
1. Huckabee: Admitted that he hadn’t heard of the Iran NIE and was convinced that Iran was in fact still building nukes;
2. Guiliani: Claimed that he spent more time at ground zero than many of the first responders when in fact his records showed that he spent more time either at, or traveling to and from, Yankees games than at ground zero. In addition, had NY pay for his security when he traveled to meet his mistress
3. Romney: He’s been hunting less often than Rudy’s been married. He knows his solid right views very well, since he just came up with them lasty year.
4. McCain, Tancredo, Paul: I don’t follow candidates who can’t poll 20% in any state so I can’t comment much on them.
Obama is Mt. Rushmore material compared to that group.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 12:49 pm
Carl Davidson, who organized that 2002 anti-war ralley Obama spoke at, called him triangulator par excellence.
He’s going to move right and want to sound tough. That’s why we’ve had the talk from him on Pakistan. And he’s really going to seem the triangulator.
It’s a situation that invites gaffes and given Obama’s tendency towards nuance, it’s going to be a problem.
If looks like he’ll be opposed by more experienced GOPers (and especially McCain), I think they’ll be a lot of buyer’s-remorse, so to speak, among Democrats.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:21 pm
The Davidson link if the previous doesn’t work,
http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20070115/001422.html
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:24 pm
…and SecState Rice could easily be #2 on a GOP ticket which would be an interesting line up against any combination of Dems.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:30 pm
The solution to avoid being caught saying something stupid on videotape is to not say anything stupid.
Schock comes off as a spoiled control freak by making this demand.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:33 pm
Baar,
Carl Davidson -and this is in no way intended as a slur on him- is much more in the Kucinich camp and much less like mainstream America or even Mainstream Democrats.
A Giuliani/Huckabee ticket? I’m not sure I’ve lived a good enough life for the Lord to permit me to live to witness such a train wreck.
And I suspect Johnny USA and anon who agreed with him are; a) Republicans or b) Clinton supporters.
No one…NO ONE has predicted a landslide by anyone in IA, so why, all of the sudden, would you suggest Obama needs one unless you were, in your own small way, trying to build unmanageable expectations.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:35 pm
I have a fond memory of Eugene Sawyer answering the question of what did he learn from old-man Daley, after pausing for reflection, you never have to take back things you don’t say.
Eugene Sawyer sort of an underrated Chicago Pol in my book.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:37 pm
Baar,
Initially, when you referenced “more experienced GOP”, who in the world were you talking about? None of that crew (other than McCain) has any experience, and McCain is polling under 15%.
Further, Sec. of State Rice?
She would be my first choice for the GOP. Of course, I admit that I would like to see the GOP lose.
Let’s count her virtues:
1. Prior to 9/11, didn’t think the “suicidal Islamic extremists taking flying lessons” memo was something her boss should bother with;
2. Another architect of the well-planned efforts in Iraq;
3. Part of the team that allowed Hamas to take control.
Nice work, Ms. Rice. That’s the kind of experience that the GOP ticket needs.
Just as Iraq starts to fade as an issue, Rice would do wonders to bring it to the front burner.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:37 pm
I don’t know if I’m projecting an Obama landslide. My mom, who puts great stock in Oprah though, thinks Oprah’s endorsement gives it to him.
I think Edwards has to pull enough to make the outcome ambigous enough that Dems turn to Gore…
… I’m expecting more buyers-remorse from Dems with Obama than an Obama landslide…
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:48 pm
Just as Iraq starts to fade as an issue, Rice would do wonders to bring it to the front burner.
The GOP will play Pelosi and Reid from last year endlessly.
The Dems will, as Jon Meyers wrote in Roll Call,
This presents a unique opportunity for Democrats. Having used the Iraq War to win over millions of Americans who were previously disposed to support the other side, they can now build on that momentum by turning to other issues to seal the deal with voters who remain on the fence.
To borrow a phrase, it’s the economy, stupid…
I’m betting American voters will be appalled at the having used the war… strategy, and 2008 sees another Republican administration.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 1:58 pm
Good point Baar.
Some guy from “Roll Call” said “used the war.”
That beat the heck out of “For Rudy, a sentence includes a noun, verb, and 9/11″ or Huckabee and his lack of knowledge of NIEs or Romney having no foreign policy experience at all and no firm views on any issue at all or Rice having personally screwed up much of the war planning.
Keep up that line of thought, Bill.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 2:07 pm
OBAMA is the most qualified candidate. Never in the history of the World has there been a candidate with as much experience and long record of accomplishment. Obama will cure cancer, heart disease, and will save the world.
Comment by Golly Ggee Wilakers Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 2:25 pm
I think the only major Democratic candidate who has any chance of losing is Hillary Clinton because of her high negatives. I want a landslide, so I prefer someone other than Clinton
to carry our banner. The failure of the Republican saviour, Thompson,and the emergence of Huckabee suggest that Republicans have almost no chance of winning in 2008.
Obama will be prove to be a Teflon candidate. No dirt thrown by Clinton surrogates and Republicans is going to stick to him, much to the frustration of Swiftboaters.
If Obama wins the nomination, or if Gore emerges
as a nominee as a result of political brokering, 2008 will be a realignment election. Democrats are unlikely to experience any buyers remorse after 8 years of Bush. The nation collectively will breathe a a sigh of relief on innauguration dat 2009, since Cheney-Bush will be unable to do any further damage to the country or the world.
Comment by Captain America Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:02 pm
Don’t count Edwards out of anything. Success for Obama in Iowa may well drive a lot of Dems out of Hillary’s camp and to Edwards.
Comment by gulag Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:10 pm
Bill Baar,
The only buyers’ remorse will be that leftover from the 2004 Bush election when folks who were cajoled to voting GOP by their local precinct captains continue to realize the damage that has been done nationwide and vote to change it.
The only thing that may disrupt that scenario is the Republicans and their partisan conservative allies (527s and the like) muddying the waters and hurling so much negativity that voters get disgruntled with the whole process and sit at home. Watch for Swiftboating on Steroids for the next year.
PS: Despite repeated efforts by the Clinton campaign, New York Times, WaPo, David Yepsen in Iowa, etc. nothing is sticking to Obama. And the more ridiculous the mudslinging the less likely anything will ever stick.
Comment by Rob_N Monday, Dec 17, 07 @ 4:12 pm
hey Rob N wait until the Rezko trial starts–maybe then something will stick to Saint Obama
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Dec 18, 07 @ 7:41 am
I don’t agree with the Schock “no-tape or no-show” strategy. But I disagree more with the “I’m married and have two kids” strategy of the other repubs in that race. Congress is full of married middle or upper aged folks with two (or more kids) and they don’t seem to be getting it right most of the time either. Somebody needs a new strategy in that race!
Comment by Still thinkin' Tuesday, Dec 18, 07 @ 7:52 am