Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Hendon; RAW; Link; Franks; Fritchey (Use all caps in password)
Next Post: Morning shorts
Posted in:
* A friend of mine and I were talking last night about Mike Huckabee’s surge in Illinois. The Tribune poll showed him essentially tied with Rudy Giuliani here, but the former Arkansas governor has no real presence here. No staff, no advertising, no media coverage. Nothing. The only explanation we could come up with is that some voters are paying very close attention to the Iowa contest and are basing their decisions on that. Imagine.
* Meanwhile, some very far right fringe candidates have so far been running Mike Huckabee’s campaign in Illinois, such as it is…
[Jonathan Wright] was an assistant prosecutor in the Logan County state’s attorney’s office when he was appointed to fill an unexpired term in the Illinois House in 2001.
During his short stint in the House, he backed legislation that would have allowed student-led prayer in public schools. Wright did not seek re-election in 2002 but re-emerged on the political scene during the 2004 election when he made a long-shot bid for the U.S. Senate, running to the right of just about everybody on the ballot. […]
Also on board the Huckabee bandwagon is David McAloon of Bourbannais, who is running for a seat in the Illinois House against incumbent state Rep. Careen Gordon, D-Morris. McAloon is listed as chairman of the Slot/Values in Religion to Unite Everyone political action committee, which has funneled money to social conservative candidates over the years.
McAloon lost the GOP primary in that district last year. Wright’s Senate bid was pretty pathetic.
* Joe Wiegand, who ran Jim Oberweis’ 2006 gubernatorial primary campaign, told me today via e-mail that Huckabee is “days away from announcing Illinois Co-chairs.” We’ll see if they move up to a more A-List crowd, but almost all of those people are already on board with other candidates.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 11:45 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Hendon; RAW; Link; Franks; Fritchey (Use all caps in password)
Next Post: Morning shorts
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
I don’t know what to make of Gov. Huckabee. His background as a Baptist minister bothers me. That may not be fair but I guess it’s my own bias against ministers or former ministers in politics. He certainly could represent the Christian right, but he might turn off a lot of people too.
Comment by Levois Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:09 pm
On the one hand, I can’t see the Huckaboom lasting because of the lack of money and organization.
On the other hand, the religious/social conservatives don’t trust Romney as a former pro-choice Massachusetts flip-flopper, never liked McCain much, sure as hell aren’t Giuliani’s supporters. That just leaves Fred Thompson, whose campaign turned into the inadvertent comedy event of the year.
Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:10 pm
Most voters are likely so annoyed at the huge failings of our elected representatives of both parties, at the local, state, and national level, that they will ignore some of Huckabee’s more troubling aspects and vote for him out of annoyance.
As the national media have already pointed out, both Huckabee and Obama are carrying the change mantle. Even though, respectively, they’re pretty mainstream…mainstream enough not to make change-oriented voters too nervous.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:19 pm
I found Huckabee running as the Christian leader pretty offensive. It was a slick slap at Romney’s Mormenism and exactly the kind of thing the GOP and the country don’t need.
Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:24 pm
A good local example of why the smart money is still not on the Huckster. Huckabee seems to be almost entirely banking on a media-momentum campaign, which traditionally has not worked well, especially not for Republicans. This provokes another question: who IS the best-organized primary Republican in Illinois these days? Giuliani would be my guess, but no idea.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:45 pm
Giuliani is the best organized prez campaign in Illinois. But organization ain’t enough.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:50 pm
Organized… Republicans… Illinois… ?
?
?
Comment by GoBearsss Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 12:58 pm
Watching the shift in polls, it looks to me like Huckabee is taking votes directly from Giuliani, meaning that Conservatives who backed Giuliani as the only “winnable” candidate feel that Huckabee fits the category as well.
It remains to be seen if that lasts, especially after the media rakes him over, a process that is ongoing. Will this country will elect an ordained Southern Baptist minister, who openly comes with all the precepts of that Church, such as biblical inerrancy, rejection of evolution, etc. ?
I for one cannot see it. A couple of years ago Bush said that “Intelligent Design” should be taught alongside evolution, and a sharp backlash resulted. He has not said a word since.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 1:06 pm
I’ll give you the reason: Chuck Norris.
I was thinking that maybe Giuliani could counter this by getting Jack Bauer fans, but that might be tough now that Kiefer Sutherland’s in jail.
Comment by Kiyoshi Martinez Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 1:16 pm
I am ready to order my Huckabee t-shirt. He has been on the air constantly the last 2 days. No need to spend money in IL. when you are getting national coverage like this.
He is even getting coverage about his commercial (Christmas tree and book shelf that looks like a cross in the background).
You can’t count a candidate from Hope out of the race.
Comment by Shelbyville Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 1:20 pm
E List players for Huckabee I guess Thompson already snatched up the D list ones.
Comment by prophet Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 1:22 pm
Reminds me of the debate about the medias effect on voting, the whole polling and calling FL while the elction was going thing. It would be interesting to know how much voters are influenced by polls and news stories. This scenerio antecdotaly implies there is a substantial effect on voters opinions just from a few headlines and poll numbers.
its a kind of does the dog wag the tail or the tail the dog thing. It upports heavy capaigning in a few early States and raises the question of whetehr we would be better off with a fixed primary date for all states on the same date.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 1:25 pm
The thing I’ve found interesting about Huckabee is he doesn’t seem to have learned the fronting technique, so now that he’s surged, there’s a lot of low-hanging fruit about him that could be considered troublesome.
I see Huckabee and Guiliani as heads and tails of the same coin. Both are agents that could split the traditional alliance of so-cons and law-and-order-cons.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:17 pm
“No need to spend money in IL. when you are getting national coverage like this.”
Yeah, but how will this media coverage last? A backlash sets in eventually, and the campaign has no money or organization.
Reminds me of when Ross Perot lept ahead in the national polls in May ‘92. Sure he made his impact, but once the initial excitement wore off, he fell backwards. Even before the drop-out & return to the race his numbers had fallen to 20%. And Huck doesn’t have $2 billion in the bank.
Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:20 pm
I hear Aaron Schock’s endorsement is available.
Huck’s rise isn’t too surprising. He’s just populist and “charming” enough to distinguish himself from the crowd. His “surge” came in the weeks following Sam Brownback’s departure and the numbers are almost identical (implying Huckabee alone almost completely picked up Brownback’s supporters).
As for Levois’ comment that Huck’s being a Baptist minister bothers him it doesn’t bother me one bit. Anyone of any profession or experience ought to be able to run for office.
What matters more is a person’s record and past actions — and Huck is worrisome on both counts. The Trib recently noted his role as a spokesperson in one of those vast right-wing conspiracy groups. Even in that, my bone isn’t so much with him speaking up for his opinions, but that he is so secretive about who funded him and his rationale for seeking out (literally) a huckster’s income in the first place.
Add in his varying statements on everything from gay Americans to his version of Christianity and the guy seems more and more like an out of touch arch-conservative in populist’s clothing.
Which (to bring this back on topic) is likely precisely why he’s got a gaggle of similarly-minded hard rightist D listers supporting him.
Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:20 pm
Some of us GOP are just looking for someone to support.
Comment by Shelbyville Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:31 pm
Rob, the numbers I’ve seen for Brownback show he was getting between one and five percent. I can’t see how that accounts for anything with Huckabee.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:38 pm
II agree with Rob_N in that Huck’s appeal is obviously to the hard Christian right. In my opinion going after Huck with all of these allegations is actually beneficial to his campaign. I know that I am stereotyping but of my analysis of these hard line Christian right voters they will rally around “one of their own.” They take it personally when anyone is critical of such a “Christian man.” This helps tremendously in the western part of the state of IA which is dominated by this type of voter. Also, time is running out and these negatives on Huck might not be resonating quite yet with Iowans – also remember where these voters will be early next week (in Church). The only way Huck has gotten the support he has is through his organizing of Ministers (He had maybe 12 staffers in IA up until now). These churches goers will all be talking about Gov. Huck.
Finally, any argument about organization in IL seems pre-mature/irrelevant. Huck has never had much of the traditional campaign “organization” – come on his 25 year-old daughter has been his IA campaign manager up until recently. Don’t underestimate him just bc of the lack of a traditional “organization.” Plus, he is just a likeable fella.
Comment by Former Iowan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 2:44 pm
I’m with “GoBearss”,
A-List?
In Illinoisss?
There is no A-list in Illinois. No organizer or consultant has won anyone a race in what, nearly 10 years.
There is no A-list. There is no farm team.
I’m trying to stay out of the prognostication game this year (other than to warn that neither Romney nor Guiliani have any chance to win the General).
If this blog were around in 1980, everyone Democrat here would be salivating at the opportunity to run against Reagan, and every Republican would be arguing that Reagan was unelectable.
SSDD.
Comment by Bruno Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:12 pm
Bruno,
It sounds like you are with Huckleberry. Figures. If I were pulling a repub ballot I would definitely go for that guy from Law and Order.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:16 pm
The main problem I have with Huckabee and Romney is that they appear to be distancing themselves from their respective religious backgrounds. In my opinion, all candidates need to let us know their religious positions without any posturing and pandering and let the cards fall where they may. How important could their faith be in their lives if they are so eager to let it go to simply woo voters? If their faith is as important to them as they claim, it better lead them in making decisions.
Comment by Jay SeaBee Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:26 pm
….everyone Democrat here would be salivating at the opportunity to run against Reagan, and every Republican would be arguing that Reagan was unelectable.
I was one those Democrats.
For some reason I’ve been getting calls from polls a lot, and I’ve been telling them I’m for McCain. I think he might get the nod from the GOP too.
I think Democrats will find themselves regretting Obama and try to unload him somehow in a very self-destructive spring.
I think Ron Paul will turn into a third party phenomena.
I used to thick Huckabee would be a VP candidate but I think he’s mixing religion and politics in the worst kind of way, and an economic populist to boot. The GOP will drop him.
No science here with these forecasts, but everything is up in the air this year, and I just go with what my gut tells me.
Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:28 pm
Huckabee’s rise tells me that political support for any of the Republican “frontrunners” is a mile wide and an inch deep. Obviously, Republicans are searching for someone, anyone, who can lead them to victory. McCain was the chosen one a year ago, then Romney, then Guiliani, then Thompson, now Huckabee.
Huckabee will sink back down once people are more familiarized with some of his foibles and stranger policy positions.
The Republican primary process could be one of the most contentious we’ve seen in a long time, given the relative apathy with the slate of candidates.
Comment by the final countdown Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:31 pm
If I were inclined to vote GOP, I’d go for McCain. He’s experienced, he has the ability to consider both sides of most issues, he’s pragmatic where it matters and his religion appears to be a matter of personal devotion to him rather than a means to win votes.
I don’t think the Dems will regret Obama. I’m a big fan of his and look forward to voting for him. That said, I like all the Dem candidates (well, except for Gravel, about whom I know nothing) so I’ll vote for whoever the nominee is in the general. Of course I say that knowing that Kucinich doesn’t have a prayer.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:36 pm
“The main problem I have with Huckabee and Romney is that they appear to be distancing themselves from their respective religious backgrounds.”
Have you seen the new Christmas ad that Huckabee is playing in IA…He mentions the “Christ” is some form three times in a 30 sec. Also, he has been quoted in the NY Times as asking a reporter if Mormans believe Jesus and Satan are brothers. Granted he was joking but come on the guy is playing up his Christian beliefs arguable more than any Pres. candidate this country has seen in a long time. What you said is the exact opposite of what Huck has been doing.
Comment by Former Iowan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:37 pm
Bill,
Read my blog. I’m with Thompson. Then McCain, then Huck, who is too much of a wild card to bank on.
I just notice the wonder of yet another conservative circular firing squad, replete with Rove-wannabees who a) pick their guy, and then, b) bloviate about how all the others are evil incarnate.
Though I think Romney and Guiliani are unelectable in the general, (some bloviating on my part) I’d still support them over HIL or the Barackstar.
Comment by Bruno Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:38 pm
It’s simple. Huckabee is an interesting candidate who is likeable and offers different perspectives than Hizzoner, Mr. Plastic that dude from Law ‘n’ Order. He also offers some populous appeal and seems to give a crap about middle class voters. He’s also getting some good press pop and, though some of his past statements and stances have raised eyebrows, any press he can get is helpful when you’ve had trouble raising money and getting your message out.
Rich, I would argue that Guilani’s campaign staff is by no means all that well-organized. They may have Thompson and Cross on board but the staff is subpar.
Personally, I want someone like Ron Paul or John McCain to win the GOP nomination so the rest of the country doesn’t think we Republicans only constist of old, rich, white guys who are insensitive and use corporate talking points while only talking about war and defense. And yes, Paul and McCain are both old and white, but they certainly represent a side of my party that people need to see.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:44 pm
I find it interesting that conservatives here are supporting Sen. Thompson and claiming that Gov. Romney and the Mayor have no chance in a general. Sen. Thompson is going no where. I knew that there were rumors about his laziness but my God I think this man has to be the laziest candidate I have ever seen. At least pretend like you want to be there. The way it stands now I don’t see how any Repub. candidate besides Romney or Guiliani wins OH or FL against either BO or HRC. Only way you will pull moderates over to the right is with one of those two GOP candidates. Huck is a perfect candidate for the either BO or HRC to run against b/c the GOP will not be able to play up foreign policy/terrorism nearly as much b/c Huck has less experience than either of thos two Dems. Huck has been quoted as saying that he doesn’t have much foreign policy experience but since he stayed at a Holiday Inn Express he will be just fine. How can you say Dems should be careful what they wish for with Huck?
Comment by Former Iowan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 3:49 pm
I remember Jimmy Carter.
He was a likable Southern governor with soothing ways. He was a “healer”. He was a guy who wore Jesus on his sleeve and made sure everyone knew he prayed continually. Folks liked his folksy ways, small town values and simple answers to complex problems facing us. Voters in 1976 wanted to believe that all the troubling challenges we faced could be resolved if we had a president that wanted to hug everyone. Jimmy Carter was our first modern Care Bear Democrat elected to the presidency. I remember that.
Mike Huckabee smells like Jimmy Carter. Once again we are seeing a healer who wears Jesus on his sleeves and ensures everyone that he prays daily. He is folksy and likeable and makes our troubles look like just a lack of common sense.
But I remember what happened when Jimmy Carter faced the realities of the White House. We all suffered. I don’t want to go through that again.
Mike Huckabee, like Jimmy Carter, could have been sunk and forgotten if they were vetted properly by our media. We would have uncovered the foilables of both men, and how often their Farmer’s Almanac approach to governance failed them. We would recognize that although they were nice men with sincere faces, they were political beasts dressed as lambs hunting for the Big Kill of US politics.
Republicans should be very leery of Mr. Huckabee. He cannot be as good as he claims to be. None of our problems are as simple as they profess them to be. There is no easy solutions out there.
Mr. Huckabee? Meet former president Carter. He is your campaign-strategist’s soulmate.
Now go home and spend some time dealing with reality, will you?
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 4:04 pm
D’oh!
Comment by Rev. Pat Robertson Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 4:13 pm
The campaign season is just too damn long and too damn expensive. How many trees have we killed already to pint almost nothing new. How many watts have we burned in the television studios and during the laughable debates.
Somewhere someone said that the Republican candidate will be brokered at the convention. Too many candidates, too large a circular firing squad. Thank goodness most are firing blanks at each other.
Giuliani is peaking, McCain is coming back and Thompson is still waiting for the spotlight to hit him.
The democrats are still slogging through deep mud as well. The big three and the little four. None of them has displayed an iota of executive ability, all of them will be creatures of their handlers if they make the White House. The promise of a reform Democrat led Congress has not transmogrified itself into reality. We might as well have elected the lobbyists themselves. It could not be more expensive.
Comment by Truthful James Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 4:49 pm
I’ve heard McCain’s comeback being described as he wins the bar fight because he was hit on the head first and on the floor when the rest of them beat the tar out of each other; so when he gets back up, he wins.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 4:59 pm
Huckabee is getting Illinois media coverage. Just not in the media you pay attention to. He gets attention on Christian radio stations, email from groups like godvoter and the rest of the conservative evangelical media that most of us don’t notice.
Huckabee’s appeal is to religious conservatives and he did two things to boost himself.
1) The Chuck Norris ad. People underestimate the appeal of humor in politics. -People who make the boring ads for House Dems need to pay attention!
2) He reminded conservative protestants that Romney is one of “them” and not one of “us.” And all he had to do was utter one question about Jesus and Satan being brothers.
Comment by Sango Dem Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:03 pm
If I were pulling a repub ballot I would definitely go for that guy from Law and Order.
Even though Jerry Orbach’s dead, I’m sure he could mount a much more effective campaign than Thompson has.
I’d vote for Steven Hill over any of these jokers!
Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:15 pm
Former Iowan, any idea why Huckabee is refusing to release his sermons to the media? Is Romney really a “Christian” in the eyes of Huckabee’s supporters? They seem to be both saying that their religion will not influence their decisions as president. If their religion is not a factor in their decisions, whether as president or average citizen, what’s the point?
Comment by Jay SeaBee Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:28 pm
i don’t think they (huckabee) and a couple others need to get excited about an illinois organization…..by feb 10th there will be several dropping out for lack of money, momentum and drive. as long as the media is interested, he’ll be interesting. media gone, huckabee gone. this is still pretty fluid amongst the gop.
Comment by annon Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:34 pm
As a Democrat, I’d be very pleased if Huckabee were the nominee. His appeal seems limited primarily to evangelical Christians. As jouralist Michael Duffy noted in Time magazine, the real winner of the Republican primaries seems to be “none of the above.”
Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:40 pm
Rich, so it’s purely coincidence that Huckabee started rising in the immediate wake of Brownback dropping out?
(And are the 1-5% numbers national or state?)
Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 5:44 pm
Huckabee is the unexamined candidate. It is probably too late for any of the Republicans to do anything about him in Iowa. They would have to get very ugly and this is Christmas; no one would win.
What they needed to find out way back when was about the way he generated personal revenue when he was the state Lt. Gov. and about that “wedding registry” he created to celebrate the end of his time as Governor. That’s just this week’s stories; there are likely more goodies where they came from.
I keep wondering if the country won’t end up with a replay of the 2006 IL federal Senate race. Alan Keyes is ready and willing to lead his party.
Comment by Redbright Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 6:01 pm
Jay SeaBee - I guess I am having a hard time seeing your point. I see Romney attempting to distance himself from his mormonism in some ways mainly bc a majority of Christian voters in Western IA are given a lot of bs information about Mormonism. But his message is still clear “I am a Christian.” Plus, Romney appeals to a broader Republican (i.e. Wall Street Republican); therefore he can shy away from religion to a certain degree. Romney is still trying to hedge a little when it comes to Christian voters with his pro-life/core social issues.
I just can’t agree with your Huck analysis bc this guy’s only chance is the Christian voter - him not releasing his sermons is most likely a general election tactic - I mean god only knows what the guy has said in a church setting (the end of the world is imminent and only Christians will win in the end).
Comment by Former Iowan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 6:02 pm
I’m pretty sure Brownbeck’s 1-5% were both national and state. And I’m pretty sure it was closer to 1%. If he was doing better than that, why would he have dropped out? He and Huck were both bottom feeders a the time with Tancredo.
Comment by Some Guy Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 6:02 pm
Rob, just follow that link. They’re both national and state.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 6:11 pm
The vanillaman hit it on the head. Smells like Jimmy Carter.
Fred will be a sleeper. He is the only true conservative.
Comment by South Of I-64 Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 7:44 pm
Well, Joe Cari hasn’t formally picked a horse yet. He’s very A-List and has crossed over at least once before.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 8:11 pm
Rob, I love you in purely platonic sort of way, but you are way wrong here.
The problem is that it was only a month or so ago that anyone started paying attention to the race and that’s when you saw Huckabee take off–not when Brownback got out. It happens every cycle there is an open race and yet it’s like groundhog day every cycle because the national press corps has the memory of a gnat.
Brownback had virtually no support and neither did Huckabee. 2 X nothing is nothing.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 10:05 pm
Anyone who knows me knows I have little in common with our party’s hard right, but, so far, Huckabee doesn’t bother me. Perhaps as we come to know him better, he will, but, right now he doesn’t seem scary.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 10:14 pm
In contrast to Steve, Huckabee does scare me. He is one candidate, if nominated, that would cause me to vote for the Democratic candidate.
I’m wary of fanatics of any ilk, but evangelical christian fanatics in positions of authority are of a great concern. Moralistic intolerance is unacceptable in a President.
Comment by Just the facts Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 11:13 pm
Note that the the last 2 “laziest” Republicans (judged by pundits) were Reagan and Bush - both 2 termers.
Note all those calling Thompson “lazy.”
Comment by Bruno Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 11:33 pm
Bruno - it is not just pundits who have called him lazy. In was known when he was a Senator that he was lazy when he was in Washington. I don’t recall Bush being “lazy” when he was on the campaign trail in 2000 or in ‘04. He was a relentless campaigner. Clearly Iowa Repubs. have not been impressed with Sen. Thompson. I will grant you that Rep. Steve King’s endorsement might help him in the Western part of the state but I just don’t see how he will break into the top two, and after IA where does he pick up his momentum? - not NH or MI. Maybe SC but that might just be too late.
Comment by Former Iowan Wednesday, Dec 19, 07 @ 11:47 pm
Lazy is not the issue. Personality is. He has none. Or, at least, he hasn’t demonstrated that he has one.
And now I’m going to sleep. Just writing about Thompson makes me sleepy. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 12:53 am
I picked up Jimmy Carter with my buddy at the Grinnell Iowa airport, I guess it would have been Dec 1975 or Jan 1976. I had never heard of him before but my buddy was a big fan of his. Carter seemed totally out of place at the time. Carter spoke at the college and I have no memory of what he said. I thought at the time the county would move left after Nixon and Ford.
I got that really wrong.
I don’t think they’ll be a circular firing line for the GOP. I have a hard time figuring which would be most electable. Right now I’d lean towards McCain, but even Thompson might do it.
The GOP will unite on issues and agree to disagree on the rest.
The problem for Dems, and it’s been the problem since McGovern is they can never execulte the left-center plan: run left in the primary, and shift to the center in the general.
Dems are optimisting now because they saw 2006 as a shift towards social-democracy but I think there very far off mark there. The GOP debates are hammering away at new definition of conservatism, but I don’t get the same sense from Democrats rethinking Liberalism.
When Obama or Clinton try to move to the center in the general, without much underpinnings to their thinking, then I think the wheels come-off the party again… the really can’t lose 2008 either because I think it would be a loss that marks them as no longer a viable presdential party. Only Carter and Clinton since LBJ doesn’t cut it. Especially if Obama gets the nod and we have what amounts to a snub of Clinton and the 1990s.
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 9:02 am
Huckabee bothers me with his tax increasing and other flippity floppity ness. I could care less if he is a minister, just don’t try to baptize people in the Potomac.
I will not vote for Romney cause he is Mormon and I have issues with them and that whole curse of Ham lie.
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 9:38 am
Huckabee is smooth in front of the cameras and for off the cuff comments without cheat sheet/talking points is pretty good. As others has said he does come off kinda folksy, but he at least acts like he cares and understands issues because his explantions are understandable. The religion card is hot right as a simple rationale to look different from the crowd or for voters to support/reject someone. Huckabee’s track record is going to be hacked over and over compared to what he says now. He admits some past decisons he would change and others he would stick with regardless of their unpopularity.
This whole campaign is sales pitch time with an emphasis on who can sell the most ginzu knives. None of the candidates grab me as anyone I would support. They all seem kinda thin except McCain, but Huckabee is likable and in the race to survive that may be enough to handle the blowback that will come.
Comment by zatoichi Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 10:20 am
Wumpus, Huckabee signed many bills that decreased tax rates. His literature states that he’s a fiscal conservative. It states:
“* Passed Arkansas’ first broad-based tax cut package and cut over 90 additional taxes — reducing taxes by almost $380 million for the people of Arkansas.
* Balanced the Arkansas state budget five times, eliminated the capital gains tax for the sale of a home, and indexed the state income tax to inflation to keep people from being forced into higher tax brackets.”
Comment by PhilCollins Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 10:26 am
Another problem with Huckabee is that he’s the type of religious conservative that voters completely rejected in 2006. These guys were thrown out with vigor. His bump is because the evangelicals finally have someone to glom onto.
Comment by Chris Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 10:31 am
Chris,
The number of centrist Dems who won in 2006 is evidence that there was no such rejection of religious voters.
Hillary herself has been courting religious voters, and will fare better with evangelicals than most doctrinnaire prognosticators would believe.
2006 was a rejection of Bush, real and perceived Republican Corruption, and lack of intellectual rigor. The Dems capitalized on their weakness by running some PRO_LIFE candidates.
This is hardly a rejection of religious voters. Rather, it is admission that they’ve become more mainstream than the extremists at NARAL.
This isn’t to say Huckabee is a done deal. He is more of a wild card than I’m comfortable with.
Rich,
In general, your critique of Thompson is accurate. OTOH, I beleive he started to exhibit “personality” when he properly dissed the boneheaded moderator in the last debate.
Since then, he’s been doing non-stop campaigning in Iowa, and reports are that he’s being well received. His campaign strategy simply had to be predicated on a good (come from behind) showing in Iowa, which he may be able to pull off.
That said, I had higher expectations.
Comment by Bruno Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 12:09 pm
Bruno et al
I think that FT made a blunder by failing to put on the fire chief’s hat in Waverley recently. I think also that he believes that he is in for a long war and as Tancredo and other drop out he will be able to get support there.
He is not a gladiator and must pick his spots. McCain is the man who has recovered most. He will fight with FT for the drop out leavings.
The Huckster, I believe will peak through NH
Comment by Truthful James Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 2:03 pm
Thanks, one thing that has my interest peaked isssss the major GOP Radio people trying to make Huckabee seem like he shouldn’t even be there.
I do like that he lost weight
Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 2:41 pm
I see you’re point, Bruno, but I think it’s fair to say that the affect of voters who consider their faith when they vote is still in flux. Liberal Christians are becoming more active voters. Conservative evalgelicals do not speak for all Chirstians. They certainly do not speak for me.
I agree that the awful Bush administration had a lot to do with the 2006 vote nationally, but voters kicked out far right Republicans more because of their views and votes than because the Dems offered real alternatives. 2006 was the beginning of a growing rejection of conservative religious dogma in politics.
Comment by Chris Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 3:17 pm
And Bruno, let’s be fair. If NARAL is extremist, so is the PLAL and the NRLC.
Comment by Chris Thursday, Dec 20, 07 @ 3:25 pm