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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
When legal questions were raised about U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly’s campaign for state Democratic Party chair last week and Kelly only got stronger, that should tell you a couple of things.
One — Kelly is a genuinely well-liked, well-known and trusted person within the Democratic Party and her alliance with U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin was crucial. They were quickly able to believably reassure her supporters and those leaning in her direction that she’d find a way around the admission by her own attorney that the state party couldn’t raise or spend “soft,” non-federal campaign money as long as she had even “indirect” control of the party apparatus.
Two — and perhaps more importantly — the hit solidified the contest as a referendum on Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and not in a good way.
When the potential loss of millions of dollars in campaign contributions, plus the possible loss of as much as $300,000 in postage discounts per cycle for the Illinois House Democrats alone, plus publicly expressed fears about Kelly’s election from the party’s most dependable ally organized labor, plus the very real possibility of alienating a sitting liberal billionaire governor weren’t enough to stop Kelly, you’re dealing with a heck of a candidate, a clever sponsor and no fear of reprisal from the other side.
Granted, the state central committee is a strangely unique voting universe populated with some odd sorts. But everybody knew that going in. Also, people lied. But that’s not new. In the end, however, the governor got rolled. Again.
Pritzker’s foray into the 2020 Illinois Senate president election caused a backlash that ended in defeat and lingering resentment on both sides. His “Fair Tax” was so thoroughly beaten last year that Democratic legislators all over the state who voted to put it on the ballot were running away from it throughout the fall. January’s lame duck session was a gubernatorial disaster. And now this.
Last week’s narrow but convincing thumping of Pritzker’s candidate, Michelle Harris, won’t matter at all to actual 2022 voters, who are far more concerned right now with staying alive, healthy and employed. But these losses have a cumulative effect under the Statehouse dome.
Losing is like a disease in politics. People usually don’t want to have anything to do with you when you lose. So, the governor needs to start putting some points on the board or this could morph into something that voters care about. Someday, this pandemic’s gonna end.
Pritzker is starting to take some positive steps. The governor just finished two weeks of events with Legislative Black Caucus members, enthusiastically supporting the new criminal justice reform law and aggressively rebutting its many critics. The Black Caucus passed three of its four “pillars” in January (education and economic reform were the other two), so expect another four weeks of similar whistle-stops.
Pritzker also has done a few recent events to announce projects from 2019’s massive capital construction program.
With the way things stand now, though, the legislature will roll over him like he’s not even there on the new district maps, the budget or whatever.
For instance, Pritzker’s failed efforts for more than a year to pass a cleanup bill for the cannabis legalization law are encountering even more resistance. Rep. Sonya Harper, chair of the Illinois Legislative Black Caucus, insisted to the Cook County Cannabis Commission last week that the Pritzker administration’s implementation of the 2019 law is the main problem, not the law itself.
And then, of course, there are the ongoing problems at the Illinois Department of Employment Security a full year since the economic crisis began. Legislators receive more gut-wrenching calls about this topic than pretty much everything else combined.
The best path forward for the governor boils down to good governance, good politics and much better “member management.”
One thing that encompasses all three of those is the state’s capital program, which needs to be rolled out more. Nothing generates more legislative goodwill than projects. Make lots of people happy and create some jobs, already.
Above all, though, Pritzker’s gotta figure out why these losses keep happening. Stop talking and start listening.
He wouldn’t confirm it, but I’m told one of the last people to declare his state party chair allegiance was millennial committeeperson Tom Maillard moments before the voting began. Maillard had just enough weighed votes to put Kelly over the top.
A phone call to that young man to hear him out is probably the last thing anyone on Team Pritzker wants to do right now. But it wouldn’t be a horrible first step.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 9:30 am
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Your 5th & 3rd to last paragraph summarize it very well. Pritzker seems too much an activist & not enough a politician. For example, he didn’t seem chaistened by the Fair Tax loss like John Kasich wisely did when a ballot initiative undid SB5.
Comment by Blake Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 9:48 am
Will Dems like this “loser’s” money come next year?
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 9:56 am
One word describes JB- Arrogant. His chances at reelection given its Illinois are still good but it would be nice if Pritzker acted less like the Billionaire he is-
Comment by Sue Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:00 am
Great read, boils it down.
“Make no waves, back no losers”
It’s not just a phrase, it’s imperative to grasp while navigating power in Illinois. It’s not a suggestion, it’s everything.
Good stuff, Rich.
To the post,
When Rod Blagojevich wanted his own “Governor’s Caucus”, the plan was to dictate then circumnavigate all things a Dem party had rolling, and he was the game in town that both parties wanted to align with… to align with Rod.
Welp, that not only never got off the ground, it isolated Blagojevich from just about everyone, couldn’t even find a “hound dog” as an ally.
When Bruce and Diana Rauner bought the ILGOP, first with the $50 million that bought the two caucuses, then the state party and the disassembling of pro labor and even having IPI help pick replacements, the harsh reality was… being in a super minority outside the mansion ain’t gonna get anyone far. So, Rauner tried IllinoisGO, and to the credit of Dems, “they saw this movie before”, but the twist was turning on labor more than the Democratic Party… but in those times, that was one in the same, as Republicans became Raunerites and labor took notice. Both Bruce and Diana had the finances for that “Governor’s Caucus”, they even had the cash, but what Bruce and Diana Rauner didn’t count on us that character counts, and that’s where Bruce and Diana Rauner lacked, while pretending to be “fighting for their home”… it just wasn’t what Illinoisans saw as their home too
So… that gets us to Pritzker.
I scratch my head often to these political defeats. It’s like a 6-10 Bears team, and you hear the team say they got it figured out. You have nothing figured out sitting at 6-10, and losing a battle for the senate presidency, now with the state party chair, what *is* figured out… poor choices or poor battles to choose?
What I do know? Easy. I know that the Pritzker Crew built a statewide network, had offices, staffed them, had a heck of a comms crew, and were spending at a clip of $300K a day for 430+ days.
What’s critical to seeing the difference between Pritzker… and Rod… and Bruce and Diana… the majority party’s policy and politics not only align with how Pritzker wants to govern, it could help him to a second term. Further, building his own apparatus, that aligns with, but not in concert of aligned directly with any caucus or state party allows autonomy… and freedom to literally not fund a thing.
Dems need his signature for bills. The governor needs his budget and projects. They all win when those good governing and politics align, but Pritzker should go his own way, build his crew, let the others fend for themselves, the politics and policies and the need for the cooperation… unlike Rod or Bruce and Diana… there’s a mutual need… but not necessarily to be put in losing political battles.
Pritzker has what Rod hoped, a chance to finance and build his own group, and Pritzker already showed he can do it…. and Pritzker has what Bruce abd Diana Rauner dreamed… an agenda that can get 60 and 30… and by moving that agenda, “governors own” that good too.
If I were they?
Move on, move forward, Governor.
This last loss might be the biggest helper to make that break, move policy and politics forward, and build your own crew as the others still need you, as you need them, and you all will benefit… while you can save so much money, and the headaches too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:05 am
No need to worry. His staff will continue to prioritize victories for him. Like “who can post more nonsense on social media”,
Who can take more credit for beating Rauner in 2018, and it wasn’t us that messed up the social equity piece of marijuana..
Comment by Wow Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:14 am
Before JB can move politics and policy forward with his own crew (new crew or old crew) he has to demonstrate at least a little bit that he can govern and serve the people. Aye, there’s the rub.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:16 am
Independent take here from someone who has voted for Dems and GOPers.
The moment that the Dems won both Senate seats in Georgia, Governor Pritzker’s reelection odds increased.
Pritzker will not have to increase taxes on working and middle-class households. And because of that, he’ll be very tough to beat
Comment by Julian Perez Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:16 am
=== he has to demonstrate at least a little bit that he can govern and serve the people. Aye, there’s the rub.===
That’s only the rub if;
* Pritzker is under water
* Pritzker is losing head to head to Schimpf
* Pritzker is losing to Bailey head to head
Otherwise… it’s just words.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:18 am
“Hi, I’m J.B. Pritzker.”
“Which means I’m not Paul Schimpf/Darren Bailey.”
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:34 am
I honestly feel a little bad for the guy, he genuinely seems interested in making Illinois a better place (can’t say that for the last…several…governors) but for some reason his messages are not resonating. I do feel like he’s constantly been in ‘damage control’ for his whole term, between COVID, budget disasters, Fair Tax, etc. Maybe with Covid winding down he can find a message that carries him to re-election. Meh.
Comment by Barn Burner Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:54 am
=== Maybe with Covid winding down he can find a message that carries him to re-election. Meh.===
Can’t beat someone with no one.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:55 am
Poshard lost many a downstate moderate / liberal, in part, due to how Ryan portrayed him. Bailey’s “God, Guns, and Gays” ought to play really well in the Chicago suburbs … . /s
Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 10:56 am
“the majority party’s policy and politics not only align with how Pritzker wants to govern, it could help him to a second term.”
How important and willing are members of the majority party going to campaign and promote JB in 2022? We saw this with the fair tax. Very little political support outside of the DSA/CTU types. Didn’t see Lori, Madigan, Cullerton, key suburban legislators stumping for it in 2020.
Dems knew Rauner would be awful for the State yet who stumped for Quinn’s re-election? Are these lessons learned regardless of who the republican nominee is? Certainly there are many differences between Quinn and JB but who, what, and how gets people to the polls.
Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 11:26 am
=== How important and willing are members of the majority party going to campaign and promote JB in 2022? We saw this with the fair tax.===
(Sigh)
A referendum on a constitutional amendment is NOT a man willing to spend $300K a day, every day, for 430+ days… with an opponent that can be hammered and shook with money like that.
It’s not the same.
Pritzker doesn’t necessarily need “anyone”… he can self fund and they know how to organize and get on the Tee-Vee
=== Certainly there are many differences between Quinn and JB but who, what, and how gets people to the polls.===
LOL, yeah, Bailey or Schimpf and their Trump like thinkings will crush Pritzker’s $300K a day barrage of framing them “bad for Illinois”
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 11:31 am
The Governor has some good issues, namely COVID, on his side as he works hard to get Illinois through the worst of times. But I think he’s made a strategic error by not building a political team (separate from his state gov’t staff who ran the 2018 race). They need a better infrastructure - the kind they put together in 2017-18.
Comment by west wing Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 11:58 am
Pritzker should be shaking in his boots. Given the depth and strengths of the Republican bench he should fear beating Rauners numbers for re election/S
Willy is right you can’t beat someone with no one
Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 12:07 pm
===the majority party’s policy and politics not only align with how Pritzker wants to govern===
We’re two years into his administration and I’m not sure I would be able to mount an accurate answer to the question, “How does Governor Pritzker want to govern?”
He didn’t even fill the agencies with his own appointees beyond the very tops of those organizations.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 12:17 pm
=== We’re two years into his administration and I’m not sure I would be able to mount an accurate answer to the question, “How does Governor Pritzker want to govern?”===
The 2019 legislative agenda, passed and signed?
Hmm.
===He didn’t even fill the agencies with his own appointees beyond the very tops of those organizations.===
“Personnel is Policy”
“Outside” Veterans Affairs, IDES…
At this point it’s a primary election issue, who got “overlooked”
Then… who exactly wants to primary Pritzker?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 12:20 pm
I understand that Team Pritzker will spend a lot of money and (according to my small, unscientific and general poll of some Dems and R’s I know) a lot of people are giving him high marks on giving his all to protecting Illinois residents from Covid. Both big pluses.
I do think some people are beginning to think he is just a political gadfly with a big checkbook which is not a good look.
The “Fair Tax” lose may not be the best indicator of his re-election chances, but it is a good indication that a solid majority of Illinois voters did not trust him to wisely spend another 3.7 or so Billion taxpayers dollars.
It would not surprise me at all if Team Pritzker got challenged in the Primary. Really not sure he has a big enough base of Democrats that would be voting in the primary.
Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:05 pm
=== It would not surprise me at all if Team Pritzker got challenged in the Primary. Really not sure he has a big enough base of Democrats that would be voting in the primary.===
You saying he’d lose a Dem primary?
Who is this Dem that would beat the sitting governor?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:22 pm
===The 2019 legislative agenda, passed and signed?===
It was impressive, but then what? After the opportunity to be the great tax reformer went belly up, what is it now?
To the outside observer where Pritzker has weighed in on legislative leaders and party leadership seems arbitrary because the “to what ends” component isn’t addressed. Why Harris over Kelly? Was concern over the FEC’s regulations the only basis for the distinction?
It is difficult to expect other political actors support the Governor without knowing exactly where he is going and why.
===“Personnel is Policy”===
Some even some of his slam dunk legislative accomplishments were negatively impacted by failing to remove Rauner appointees from Rutan exempt positions.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:28 pm
“Didn’t see Lori, Madigan, Cullerton, key suburban legislators stumping for it in 2020.”
Madigan was wounded and in an undisclosed location. Cullerton was retired, but his successor was a huge advocate. And most of the D infrastructure was highly supportive and very vocal. So not sure what you’re talking about.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:32 pm
OW, a lot of Democrats don’t believe in him. The Senate President’s race and Robin Kelly’s election are pretty solid indicators that a lot of Democrats simply don’t like Team Pritzker.
In terms of who would want a different standard bearer, you could start with the the same 60% or so that voted against him last time. Add in some nursing home residents and relatives, veterans, cannabis and gambling “entrepreneurs” who are not happy and you start to see pretty solid number of voters that are nor happy with the current team leaders.
Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:34 pm
The Governor’s capital program rolling out now is a key comeback strategy, if executed properly. His announcement in Waukegan last week of a large construction project for the College of Lake County, Waukegan Campus, was a good start.
Comment by BeaverBrooke Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:35 pm
=== a lot of Democrats don’t believe in him. The Senate President’s race and Robin Kelly’s election are pretty solid indicators that a lot of Democrats simply don’t like Team Pritzker===
I asked for a name not your editorializing, lol
=== In terms of who would want a different standard bearer, you could start with the the same 60% or so that voted against him last time.===
A name.
=== Add in some nursing home residents and relatives, veterans, cannabis and gambling “entrepreneurs” who are not happy and you start to see pretty solid number of voters that are nor happy with the current team leaders.===
When you have a name…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:37 pm
JB isn’t in the same league as Durbin. The Senator has been a good old boy politician long before JB knew that Springfield was the Capitol of Illinios. Plus, every State Central Committee member knows that Durbin is going to choose all of the new US Attorneys.
Comment by Frumpy White Guy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 1:53 pm
Politics is a protection racket, Rich often reminds us.
Who would trust Governor Pritzker to protect them, at this point?
Whether Governor Pritzker can govern effectively and get re-elected are separate but related questions.
He needs to figure out why he lost all of the suburbs in the party chairmanship race.
And he needs to figure out how he alienated Senator Feigenholtz - his own Senator - to the point where she is chiding his administration publicly to reopen.
If his staff has a poor relationship with legislators or they no longer feel he has their back, his chances of a good session go down considerably. If he cannot effectively govern, the odds of an effective opponent in the election go up considerably.
With all do respect, his problems with administration go far beyond IDES and Veterans. Just because the pandemic has sucked the oxygen out of news coverage doesn’t mean there are not any problems elsewhere. Heavens, remember when IDPH was refusing to inspect nursing homes?
Comment by Mickey DeSalvo Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 2:53 pm
== Who is this Dem that would beat the sitting governor? ==
Excellent question for both parties, really. But if money couldn’t buy the sitting governor a constitutional amendment, will it buy him love in 2022? Or is he more vulnerable than we think?
Those of us permitted to converse here pay extraordinary attention to the high sport of politics. We read, we pontificate, we know our politicians’ strengths. We’re also a minority.
Ask your neighbors who usually vote but who don’t breathe politics what they think of the sitting governor. In one (mostly Dem) circle you’d hear:
His broken promise to fix property taxes hurts him. The appearance that he wants to tax more so he can spend on new stuff hurts him. His refusal to confront the pension elephant hurts him. Rising population loss hurts him, especially with parents watching their grown children abandon Illinois.
And you just might hear that your neighbors are tired of a guy who’s always blaming, blaming, blaming somebody else for whatever flusters him. Do you ever hear him own his failures? Ever?
Maybe an upbeat, likeable outsider with an iconoclastic streak could undercut a wounded governor. Just as, half a century ago, Democrat Dan Walker beat Paul Simon, the Daley Machine’s money and then incumbent Gov. Richard Ogilvie.
But to steal the best question, who is this Dem? Or this Republican?
Comment by Perplexed Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 2:57 pm
—–
LOL, yeah, Bailey or Schimpf and their Trump like thinkings will crush Pritzker’s $300K a day barrage of framing them “bad for Illinois”
—–
Don’t look now. Bailey just had a super high profile campaign event at Scooters Hide Away And Grill down in Utica. He had maybe 40 or 50 people there based on the pics. He keeps up with that kind of momentum he’ll be doing the Kass podcast and a weekly slot on the Morning Answer. THE TRAIN IS A COMING, PEOPLE.
Comment by dan l Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 3:17 pm
=== He had maybe 40 or 50 people there based on the pics. He keeps up with that kind of momentum he’ll be doing the Kass podcast and a weekly slot on the Morning Answer. THE TRAIN IS A COMING, PEOPLE.===
Proft got 7% in his run for governor.
Proft and Amy aren’t even registering in ratings on the radio.
The goal of the exercise for anyone trying to run as an alleged Republican like Bailey is to get 20% in the city, and in Cook and the collar counties keep it close enough for downstate.
Bailey can go on The Answer all he’d like, as the larger audience of $300k a day reminds voters daily Bailey is a Trumpkin who embraces all that means; racism, insurrection, and conspiracy theories.
I hope it was meant as snark but… Bailey (and in some ways Schimpf) is a gift to the governor.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 3:26 pm
=== Excellent question for both parties, really. But if money couldn’t buy the sitting governor a constitutional amendment, will it buy him love in 2022? Or is he more vulnerable than we think?===
For the 617th time… an amendment defeat isn’t a race between two people. Comparing the two is a fool’s errand.
=== Ask your neighbors who usually vote but who don’t breathe politics what they think of the sitting governor. In one (mostly Dem) circle you’d hear:===
Narrator: Anecdotal isn’t data. Polling is a measure thru science.
Geez, Louise. This is wishing not analyzing
=== But to steal the best question, who is this Dem? Or this Republican?===
Until someone can compete financially to take Pritzker down and Pritzker is under water… it’s a wish more than a real question.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 5:27 pm
=== Who would trust Governor Pritzker to protect them, at this point?===
Meh.
The governor goes it alone.
Let them figure it out.
Polices that align will pass and get signed.
The rest is ignoring that Pritzker can go alone. He’s shown he can.
=== With all do respect, his problems with administration go far beyond IDES and Veterans. Just because the pandemic has sucked the oxygen out of news coverage doesn’t mean there are not any problems elsewhere. Heavens, remember when IDPH was refusing to inspect nursing homes?===
True or not, will someone be in a position to spend enough money to highlight… the inside baseball of Dem political angst or agency malfunctions?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 5:29 pm
=== Some even some of his slam dunk legislative accomplishments were negatively impacted by failing to remove Rauner appointees from Rutan exempt positions===
How so? Where?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 5:31 pm
If he ends the pandemic, he wins …same as thing for Pelosi.
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 8, 21 @ 8:24 pm