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* UPDATED x1 * Bailey gave two-thirds of his Q4 net contributions away to fellow Republican legislators, had a 183% net burn rate

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* Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey’s D-2 caught my eye last night. Despite reporting that he raised almost $500K in the quarter, Bailey actually ended the quarter with $200K less than he started it with…

That's quite the burn rate pic.twitter.com/cycbrRIzaG

— Rich Miller (@capitolfax) January 19, 2022

* So, I decided to look into it further…

That $150,100 from Restore Illinois is listed as a "refund" on its D-2 🧐 https://t.co/DeAfNwswu2

— Rich Miller (@capitolfax) January 19, 2022

* Let’s back up a bit. Restore Illinois was founded in 2018 to raise money to elect Eastern Bloc legislative candidates. It has reported raising $477,442 since it was founded, with $200K coming from that above-mentioned Bailey contribution and $319,800 since the start of the 4th quarter last year.

What happened last year? The remap. As part of Democratic redistricting, fellow Eastern Bloc Reps. Adam Niemerg (R-Dieterich) and Chris Miller (R-Oakland) were mapped into the same district, the 102nd. Eventually, Rep. Miller (no relation) agreed to move and run in the neighboring and vacant 101st House District. His spouse, US Rep. Mary Miller, was mapped in with fellow Republican Mike Bost, but then she decided to run against Rep. Rodney Davis.

There has been some paranoia within the Eastern Bloc about how agents of Rodney Davis are supposedly trying to gin up opponents against some of them. From Rep. Chris Miller earlier this month…

Never-Trumper Rodney Davis is looking for RINO candidates to run against every pro-life, pro-gun Republicans who supported Trump. Conservative Republicans will defeat liberals like Rodney Davis who stabbed President Trump in the back. The America First movement will not back down to the RINO establishment - we will defeat any and all liberal RINOs Rodney Davis recruits.

OK.

* Anyway, Restore Illinois collected $319,800 from three Eastern Bloc Members last quarter: $200K from Sen. Darren Bailey in October, $59,900 from Rep. Blaine Wilhour in November and $59,900 from Rep. Adam Niemerg in December. The PAC refunded $150,100 to Bailey a week after he made his contribution because, by law, it can only accept $59,900 from a candidate committee. Oops.

Almost all of the $179,700 Restore Illinois collected from those three members was then transferred to Rep. Miller shortly after each of the three contributions were received. Click here.

* Here’s where it gets kinda interesting. Neither Rep. Wilhour nor Rep. Niemerg had enough money in their accounts to make those $59,900 contributions to Restore Illinois.

Rep. Wilhour started the quarter with $45.7K in the bank. But then he reported a $59.9K check from Bailey on November 17, and Restore Illinois reported a $59.9K check from Wilhour the very same day.

Same with Rep. Niemerg, who started the fourth quarter with just $23,380.40 in the bank. Bailey maxed out to Niemerg with $59,900 that was reported on December 3rd, and Restore Illinois reported its $59.9K contribution from Niemerg on December 22nd.

So, essentially it appears as though Bailey was able to get $169,800 to his ally Rep. Chris Miller via a complicated series of maneuvers through other campaign accounts. It’s a mechanism that might’ve made Mike Madigan proud.

Except, they didn’t have to do it this way. Rep. Miller busted the caps on his race on November 22nd with a $100,001 contribution to himself. Bailey could’ve just written Miller a check for whatever he wanted.

Seems like a lot of work for nothing.

* Now, take out the refund from Restore Illinois and Bailey raised a net $349K. Of that, he contributed a net $230K to Restore Illinois and Eastern Bloc Reps. Wilhour, Niemerg and Dan Caulkins, or 66 percent of what he took in. You gotta wonder what all those folks who believe so strongly in Bailey’s message might think of him spending two-thirds of their money not on his “grass roots movement,” but on his pals’ races.

I’ve asked the Bailey campaign for comment.

* Meanwhile, Bailey spent about $410K on consultants and their services, staff, etc.

All of his spending and transfers gave Bailey a net burn rate of 183 percent by my calculations.

Hope he doesn’t try to run the state like that.

*** UPDATE *** Bailey campaign…

We are in a fight for the heart and soul of our state and the Republican Party. It’s evident the corruption in Springfield isn’t partisan, and we’re all tired of the political elites selling out working families and taxpayers. Darren Bailey was given money from generous donors who have indicated they not only want to take on extreme Democrats, but they want to take on RINOs. The money was then sent to several members of the conservative coalition and the Restore Illinois PAC. On top of defeating the establishment’s Democrat in the Republican Primary for Governor, and taking on Democrats in other races across the state, the Restore Illinois PAC is planning on challenging Republicans who have sold out working families and our conservative principles to vote with Democrats to raise taxes. This is the only way we can truly reform Springfield and restore Illinois.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:38 pm

Comments

= There has been some paranoia within the Eastern Bloc =

Some? I thought paranoia was the main plank in their platform.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:43 pm
Boy these “family farmers” like Miller and BAiley sure have a lot of cash laying around these days.

Remind me, how much did they get in farm subsidies and PPP? Never mind, I’ll look it up.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:46 pm
“Hope he doesn’t try to run the state like that.”

I think that’s the plan…

Comment by NIU Grad Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:46 pm
It’s funny because if he wants to run things “like a business” Bailey would be one who needs government assistance in his business to run over 100% in spending, a great deal of it “on his friends”

Sounds like a liberal…

With a 180+% burn rate, it’s not unlike the way a Ponzi scheme has a burn rate like that… as they try to stay ahead of getting caught… lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:47 pm
==a Ponzi scheme==

That’s a good description of how Trump runs his businesses and campaign. So, the apple is staying close to the tree.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:51 pm
jsmill. let me know what you find.

Comment by Blue Dog Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:55 pm
===Bailey spent about $410K on consultants===

Personally, is the only depressing thing I see.

Consultants are “tripping and falling” into piles of money… it’s not even February to a June primary.

*Sigh*

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 12:55 pm
Does this make anyone else think, “gee, maybe this guy isn’t running for governor…”?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:05 pm
===Consultants are “tripping and falling” into piles of money… it’s not even February to a June primary.

*Sigh*=== My gosh Willy Wake up What do you think the whole Ken Griffin slate stuff is all about? It has nothing to do with winning, It’s about consultants getting very rich.

Comment by watchful eye Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:07 pm
You could conceivably justify a high burn rate in the early part of a campaign by needing to stand up an organization real quick. But frankly, $500K isn’t nearly good enough, even in a world without a Rauner or a Pritzker or a Griffin.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:09 pm
- Meanwhile, Bailey spent about $410K on consultants and their services, staff, etc. -

So this is all just a big grift to funnel cash to his buddies. How surprising.

Comment by Excitable Boy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:09 pm
Only an Eastern Bloc Republican like Miller doesn’t see the irony of saying “pro-life, pro-gun” in the same sentence.

Comment by Sir Reel Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:18 pm
=== It has nothing to do with winning===

I know those folks and they don’t go into something to lose.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:19 pm
===Wake up===

Don’t be… “that person”… telling everyone to “wake up”.

Let’s put on our thinking caps for a sec…

If I’m mocking (or jealously crying in my Yuengling, either one, you choose) the idea of the money “spent”, doncha think I see that the cash part of all this is a thing?

Seriously. Do you believe what you’re asking.

If your beef is with the slate, “go in peace” and whatever…

… there’s gonna be a half of a billion (yep, with a B) likely spent by all in two elections. You want some, go chase it. The media outlets are winners too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:23 pm
=There has been some paranoia within the Eastern Bloc=

You don’t say…

Comment by Flat Bed Ford Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:24 pm
I’ve also yet to meet anyone willing to dump nine-figures into anything in this life without seeing a winning end.

If you know someone like that, tell no one but me and the both of us can make a pitch for the dollars, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:26 pm
==It’s about consultants getting very rich.==

Why would Griff care about making consultants rich? Having his guy in the governors mansion to veto tax increases, eliminate regulations, and award lucrative state procurement contracts (like Rauner did with Trey Childress) would be far more profitable in the long run.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:37 pm
===So, essentially it appears as though Bailey was able to get $169,800 to his ally Rep. Chris Miller via a complicated series of maneuvers through other campaign accounts.===

I guess that makes Representative Bailey a direct supporter of a wanna be domestic terrorist that declared war on the United States of America last year? Neat. Maybe he knew exactly about what his supporter who is facing federal charges was doing on January 6th.

===Personally, is the only depressing thing I see.===

OW, you’re looking at this wrong. We should just be starting a mail house with lofty boasts about micro targeting and meta data while claiming a proven track record of results.

If the modern GOP is fine with becoming a party that’s driven by grifters for grifters the appropriate response is to out grift the grifters until the donors and voters learn their lesson and the candidates stop this nonsense.

Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:38 pm
===Having his guy in the governors mansion to veto tax increases, eliminate regulations, and award lucrative state procurement contracts (like Rauner did with Trey Childress) would be far more profitable in the long run.===

We… have a winner.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:39 pm
And Pastor Corey Brooks’ Project Hood got $5,000 from Bailey - way, way more than any GOP county organization or other donations.

Comment by King Louis XVI Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:43 pm
Farmers know how to spend lots of money fast.

Comment by Publius Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:48 pm
No more games!

Schimpf looking better every day, and he definitely did the best choosing a running mate in McHenry Counry Board Vice Chair Carolyn Schofield!

Comment by John Lopez Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:51 pm
- Candy Dogood -

As a newly minted (and deservingly so) Golden Horseshoe winner, *you* could strike out on *your own*, you won’t need me.

Keep me updated on your progress, or you get too busy and need help.

:)

Back to Bailey, as I grab another Yuengling to cry in…

When you look at that burn rate, topping over 180%+, how will Bailey see his path going forward in trying first to get name ID, and second fend off and attack Irvin with the same dollars needed for all three prongs?

The monetary strength of a candidate is also predicated on the threats within the race and being able to both answer and then counter attack.

At this point, all the money moving, has Bailey even secured a base of operation and voter to build a voting block?

The waste of money will be harshly measured last by the votes finally cast.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 1:56 pm
Darren “Bailout” Bailey
#BailoutBailey

Comment by Southern Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 2:11 pm
= Hope he doesn’t try to run the state like that. =

Hope he doesn’t get the opportunity.

Comment by JoanP Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 2:33 pm
Sounds like a money laundering scheme.

Comment by Jason Bourne Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 2:44 pm
I think we learned with disastrous results that being good at winning elections does not equal good governing. So dismissing someone’s financial motives is unwarranted.

Comment by Emmerder Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 2:45 pm
Darren Bailey is a con artist grifter….. end of story. People in Southern Illinois are sick of his antics.

Comment by Nazgul Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 2:55 pm
===the Restore Illinois PAC is planning on challenging Republicans who have sold out working families and our conservative principles to vote with Democrats to raise taxes. This is the only way we can truly reform Springfield and restore Illinois.===

To that update?

Welp, Darren Bailey hopes to win the nomination for governor by dividing the entire GOP under an unsustainable litmus test of purity that likely will include supporting the cult leader Donald Trump, and use the term RINO as its reason.

It’s truly a horrific and lousy response for a candidate wanting to not only win a nomination, but after wining rally the entire party around them.

Immature children send out a release like that.

It’s pathetic, small, and sad, and in no way makes his base grow, or makes the party more appealing.

There were no spelling errors, so that’s me being positive.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:13 pm
Bailey throwing up a plethora of baloney against the wall to see what sticks.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:14 pm
“We are in a fight for the heart and soul of our state and the Republican Party.”

I thought you were running to lead Illinois? How about that.

Comment by NIU Grad Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:22 pm
“ Welp, Darren Bailey hopes to win the nomination for governor by dividing the entire GOP under an unsustainable litmus test of purity…”

I always thought of him as a Slytherin

Comment by Lirker Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:27 pm
To the update. So RINOs and tax increases equal corruption? I guess that consistent with the lack of logic shown by the nationwide GOP, where Dem victories can only be achieved by stealing.

Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:36 pm
Boy, politics are weird.
In the real world, that might warrant an investigation for money laundering.

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 4:40 pm
== We are in a fight for the heart and soul of our state and the Republican Party.==

So my actions were 100% appropriate. Full stop.

All’s fair in love and revolutions, right?

Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 5:15 pm
=== Welp, Darren Bailey hopes to win the nomination for governor by dividing the entire GOP under an unsustainable litmus test of purity that likely will include supporting the cult leader Donald Trump, and use the term RINO as its reason. ===

Anyone running for governor on the Republican ticket who does not support Donald Trump should say so now. They cannot avoid the question forever, and its better to get the question out there now and have it answered than find out in September.

Ken Griffin has supported as many Democrats as Republicans. Some would say he’s bipartisan, but John Kass would call him part of the Combine.

Whether he’s a Republican or a RINO, whether Mayor Irving is a Republican or just a shrewd operator is something that will be debated throughout this campaign.

But I would balk at suggesting Bailey is applying some impossible “purity test.” Irving and Griffin have both given money to lots of Democrats. A Democratic candidate who’d supported Trump, George Ryan and Bruce Rauner just as Griffin has supported Biden, Daley and Emmanuel would never survive a primary, and would expect to answer questions about it from his opponents, reporters and advocacy groups.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 5:58 pm
The lifestyles of the Bailey family and the Miller family are fully paid for by the taxpayers of this state and nation through the generous government salaries, subsidies, and forgiven loans they receive every year.

There is no small government conservatism in the actual realities of their lives. There is no private industry ingenuity in their daily actions. They only ache to tear apart the fabric of our United States for their own personal gain and vanity.

They are not Republicans.
They are not conservatives.

They are false prophets.

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves”.

Comment by Inverted Pyramid Wednesday, Jan 19, 22 @ 10:16 pm
=== But I would balk at suggesting Bailey is applying some impossible “purity test.” Irving and Griffin have both given money to lots of Democrats. A Democratic candidate who’d supported Trump, George Ryan and Bruce Rauner just as Griffin has supported Biden, Daley and Emmanuel would never survive a primary, and would expect to answer questions about it from his opponents, reporters and advocacy groups.===

Rauner beat Ives in a primary, one on one.

Crowded primary, Irvin has a better shot.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 12:36 am
These hucksters are hilarious and so many are falling for it. They have done and will do nothing. May as well drive down the road and toss the money out of your car window.

Comment by Elliott Ness Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 6:57 am
Well, if you inherit billions, you don’t have to worry about your campaign’s “burn rate”.

Comment by Soapbox Derby Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 8:00 am
==It’s evident the corruption in Springfield isn’t partisan==

So now some members of the ILGOP are “corrupt” also??

I am really tired of campaigns that label everyone who doesn’t agree with them as ‘corrupt’.

Comment by Out Here In The Middle Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 10:05 am

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Bailey gave two-thirds of his Q4 net contributions away to fellow Republican legislators, had a 183% net burn rate

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* UPDATED x1 * Bailey gave two-thirds of his Q4 net contributions away to fellow Republican legislators, had a 183% net burn rate