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I’m getting a lot of comments and e-mails from people who say there is no way that Judy Baar Topinka can win a primary. She’s too pro-choice, too hated by the right wing, too connected to the old GOP establishment.
I’ll post more results later this week, but these two questions were asked ONLY of respondents who were identified as Republican primary voters.
That second question describes Topinka’s position.
That being said, Topinka certainly has a problem with a portion of the Republican base. Check out the crosstabs for the head-to-head with Blagojevich. Topinka is backed by “just” 73 percent of Republicans. However, Blagojevich is backed by a “mere” 80 percent of Democrats. This could simply be a reflection of her lower name ID than the governor’s (84 percent for Topinka versus 98 percent for the guv). Notice also that a higher percentage of Dems are backing Topinka (15) than Repubs backing Blagojevich (11).
When they just tallied the number of respondents who were aware of both candidates, Topinka leads Blagojevich 46 to 43.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 8:22 pm
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Here’s why that second question is flawed.
It makes it look like Repubs are 2-1 in favor of pro-choice when it is the opposite. The question is a confusing two-parter that talks about pro-choice, then partial birth, etc. Many of the those respondents, I guarantee, are voicing support of the latter position, not the former. Read that question closely. It is a poorly worded poll question destined to have a meaningless result.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 9:02 pm
Not to mention primaries aren’t just about voters. It’s about money. The strength of the pro-life movement in the GOP isn more than numbers. It’s the vast amount of passion, manpower and money that will get thrown behind a pro-lifer candidate if it comes down to Pro-Life Candidate X versus Judy. She won’t stand a chance.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:00 pm
Youre exactly right. I had to read the question several times before i understood exactly what was being asked. Its obvious that this flawed poll was manipulated to give JBT credibility before she gets in hte race. She got her bump. She was all over the TV today talking about what a failure blago is. The press eats this up — they love the thought of a nasty fight.
She has been sniping from the sidelines for some time now. I cant wait to see how she handles the ruthless media once they start looking very closely at her record. She has never felt heat the way she will if she becomes a candidate. I promise that somebody will make a connection between contracts out of her office and campaign contributions she received. People who give do business with the state — its that simple. Its not new and they will make the connectioins in her past. Her belief that signing this oath with hynes to refuse contributions from people doing business with the state will look so hypocritical when people realize thats exactly what was going on in her office before the oath. It doesnt matter whether or not the contracts were let above board. Once the contributor gets the contract, there will be the “perception” that a contributor was rewarded. Wait till she tries to defend honest activity that probably served the taxpayers well against a “perception.” there is a lot out there on her — everything will be fair game once she becomes a candidate. The feeding frenzy will be dizzying.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:03 pm
I think your question was pretty straight forward. What is our assessment of the likely results of a Topinka - Blago race?
Judy’s chance of winning the primary is a separate question, but I think you have provided enough evidence to at least consider it.
If Blago can get 45% of the vote outside of Cook County, he is fine. Big campaign bucks flowing in the collar counties and the metro-east.
Look at the southern Illinois numbers. Blago is low, but so is Judy. Gender will be an issue here.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:10 pm
Alan Keyes is the only candidate with the name recognition to unite the Conservatives, unless Pat O’Malley is making a comeback, and if Keyes runs that’s a guarantee that the GOP primary will be swamped by liberals. In fact, almost any highly publicized rightwing opposition to Judy is a Godsend because it defines her as a moderate in the primary and focuses media attention on her and away from Rod for four months.
Thanks for the crosstabs Rich. They tell me is that Judy has been taking women for granted, Rod’s been taking democrats and liberals for granted, and Rod’s gender gap among male voters is terrible. Poo-pooing video games is probably not going to help that, but maybe Rod thinks guys will never vote for him any way.
For the record, I never doubted your ability to read a friggin’ poll, but I do recognize the paranoid ramblings of the tinhat brigade from the Illinois Reader.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:56 pm
The poll looks good for JBT, but I agree–the questions are confusing and steer the respondent to the desired answer. Anyway, JBT never beats Blagojevich in a general election unless there is some huge scandal for Blago. Not only will he outspend her, but he will have the troops on the ground–A LOT OF THEM–in Chicago and the Cook suburbs. JBT’s pro-choicedness will win her some soft moderate voters, but in an off-year election with no senate seat up, but she loses the activist conservatives who turn the vote out in DuPage, Will, and downstate. She’ll poll close but be trounced by Wednesday morning.
Comment by :::::HST Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 11:54 pm
That poll question is not confusing. It states Topinka’s position. You guys are something else.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 12:06 am
If you are having trouble reading the questions and you are using Mozilla or Firefox, try this, you will like it:
From the “View” drop-down at the top of your browser, select “Use Style”. You will see two choices, “None” and “Default Style”. Select “None”. The questions become much larger.
When you are done reading, you can change the style back to “Default Style”.
By the way, this also comes in handy when you are reading a page that uses a bad color scheme (like gray text on a black background) or a tiny font. When you change the style to ‘None”, you can see it clearly.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:13 am
maybe im the only one that feels this but doesnt a lot of where rod is in his campaign depend on how this eyars budget is resolved?
Rod says he won’t raise taxes. Rod says he won’t expand gambling.
but there is no way he can balance his budget without doing one or both of those things because the last time i checked:
-his business fees (and fund sweeps) could be thrown out in court this week
-emil won’t let him have cig tax
-madigan won’t let him sell bonds
-neither is giving him that software tax
-his pension reform plan is going nowhere
does rod have any outs (or goodwill remaining in the legislature) to let him keep his campaign promises and balance the budget this year? if the answer to that is no, i would give judy a decent chance in this thing.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:37 am
I will say first that I am a middle-aged woman (which probably makes me a rarity on this blog) and also a strong supporter of JBT’s candidacy. I am surprised
that her showing among older women
is so low, but I think she hired an older woman recently to deal with women’s issues via the State Treasurer’s Office, perhaps to strengthen her visibility in that group.
Even Hillary Clinton has started to modify her previous rabidly liberal stance on abortion by stressing what a tragedy it is and the importance of prevention. Perhaps JBT should take a leaf from
Hillary’s campaign book.
These poll results are pretty amazing when you consider how the Republicans were viewed as a dead party in Ill.after the last election. Perhaps the relentless corruption in Democratic machine Chicago and in the governor’s manipulation of state contracts, state jobs, and
state initiatives for political and financial gain (I’ve not heard that he is personally corrupt but
like Daley, his friends and supporters are all getting rich or getting high-paying govt jobs)
is starting to get through to the general public.
And it’s high time Illinois joined the modern world and had a woman
governor.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 2:07 am
Can JBT stake out some kind of middle ground on abortion… do something like Hillary and say she believes it should be save, legal, and rare?
Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 6:13 am
I have to agree with my fellow anonymi — the second question is not tightly worded. It does accurately reflect JBT’s position (or at least her record — she has taken a slightly more pro-choice stand since leaving the legislature). The problem with the question is that it does not clearly define the opposing point of view. Hearing the question, it is equally likely to mean “are you more likely to vote for JBT’s position than a 100% pro-choice position)” as “are you more likely to vote for JBT’s position as a 100% pro-life position.”
The results for the previous question (showing Repubs more likely to vote 100% pro-life) underscore the ambiguity of the question.
Having said that, the poll results are interesting. It’s clear that Rod has a bigger problem with his Dem base than JBT would have with the GOP base in the general election. Based on nothing more than gut instinct, I’d say that if the GOP nominated a hard-right-winger, Rod’s problems with his base disappear. So, it’s a dilemna for the GOP. Do you nominated someone who your base despises because she’s most likely to win; or do you vote your heart and lose in the general election?
Btw, this poll vindicates the GOP moderates’ position that Republicans can’t win in Illinois if they run conservative ideologues statewide. Those of us who have followed elections in this state have known that since at least 1996.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 7:03 am
I’m a Democrat, and I’m here to tell you that HST is wrong to assume that Rod will outspend Judy (the US Chamber is the new 2000 lb. elephant in the room) or that Rod will have alot of ground troops in Chicago and Cook. Rod doesn’t have his own ground troops, and he’s alienated everyone with an organization, including the Mayor, the Speaker, Secy. White, AFSCME, even his own father-in-law. There’s ample opportunity for Judy to cut deals and ample track record of deals being cut.
And many traditional Dem interest groups - labor unions, pro-choice, gay rights - are hardly energized to defeat Judy or elect Rod. All of those groups have supported Judy in the past, and the one mobilizer that Rod could use to distinguish himself on - gun safety - he’s dropped the ball on.
Rod’s field organization in Cook County may well consist only of SEIU.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 10:01 am
There are two flaws in the polling “results” and your analysis.
There is NO DOUBT that CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE in a Republican primary.
EVEN far right and fringe candidates get 25% of the vote in a Republican party. For example Steve Baer got a 1/3 of the vote against Jim Edgar in 1990. Even the nutty Jack Roeser got 25% of the vote against Jim Edgar in 1994. Pat Buchanan got 25% of the vote against incumbent pro-life President George Bush I.
But the post 1996 Republican primary victories are even more telling.
1996 Al Salvi upset Kustra for Senate. 1998 Lauzen beat Siegle and Fitzgerald beat Diedrickson.
Salvi, Lauzen and Fitzgerald were all underdogs against better funded (except Fitzgerald) and more regular support. SO, regardless of the JBT poll, conservatives usually beat moderates/liberals in a primary if it is one and one and an open seat.
Again, look at the Salvi, Lauzen and Fitzgerald primary numbers.
The 2002 gubernatorial primary numbers are also telling. Corrine Wood was well financed and well supported but came in THIRD. Despite her abortion commercials against Jim Ryan.
The 2004 Senate race ALL of the Senate candidates were pro-life EXCEPT General Borling who got 1% of the vote and he tried to make it an issue.
So in the post 1996 world BEING PRO CHOICE OR PRO GAY HAS NEVER WORKED.
The conventional wisdom is that Lauzen and Salvi lost because they were too conservative BUT in reality they had NO regular Republican support and were dumped by George Ryan and Don Stephens and the like.
The Regular Republicans have always deep sixed conservatives in deals wtih the Dems. Salvi in 96. Salvi in 98. Lauzen in 98. Even Fitzgerald in 98 but he was well financed enough and had a flawed enough opponet to win. Even Jim Ryan had the Rosemont crew and Repub Celleni working for Governor Rod.
SO….The majority of Republican primary voters are certainly NOT pro -choice or pro gay.
The other major flaw is that Judy Bar Topinka is so popular or so effective in a general election.
When Judy Bar Topinka first won in 1994 they thought it was going to go into a runnoff with Nancy Drew Sheehan. in 1998 it was close with McLoughlin. Even 2002 was close despite support from Congressman Rush and Congressman Lipinksi.
Topinka is incredibly unpopular with the conservative activist base.
The Dems she gives jobs too (like Lipinksi or even rinky dink players like State Rep Soto) will NOT be with JBT for governor (patronage jobs down the drain)
The more radical conservatives will try to “out” her whether it is true or not.
Judy Bar Topinka has many stupid statements on the record defending George Ryan. The Renaissance Hotel deal and her old Svengali boyfriend will come back to haunt her.
Rod can be beat but it would be tough for Topinka
Topinka may not even make it out of a primary.
Jim Ryan could be a strong contender again.
O’Malley is perceived as too right wing.
Wood is too liberal and tarnished with George Ryan.
Oberwiess will be perceived as a racist.
Rauschenberger may not have the money but has the intellect and policy knowledge to be a contender.
Ray LaHood is too hated by some conservatives and Fitzgerald loyalists.
Fitzgerald would be an excellent candidate.
BUT AGAIN
1. Republican primary voters are conservative.
2. Judy Bar Topinka BARELY wins and just scrapes by General Elections.
She is NOT that popular.
Dart could of won if even 19th ward elements did not deep six him
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:18 pm
This assumes that Republicans can’t learn from their mistakes. Running an all (but Topinka) pro-life, right-wing ticket hurt them badly in 2002. Not everyone out there is as rabid as the Leaderites.
Who’s going to beat her? LaHood? lol
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:31 pm
Anonymous 1:18:
In 2002, Topinka received over 55 percent of the vote in a statewide Democratic landslide. I’d consider that pretty damned good, considering the year.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:40 pm
JBT won in 2002 against an underfunded opponent. Any incumbent statewide office holder will win in those circumstances. Big deal. She will be very easy to attack. Cellini, hello. How is she going to attack Rod on insider deals!
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 2:56 pm
I have to wonder how many Dems who are fed up with Rod will crossover and take a Republican ballot to support JBT against a hardcore conservative candidate? As a lifelong Dem, I would be very tempted to do so.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 3:34 pm
Ms. Topinka may be savvy, but she is ooooooooooollllllllllllldddddd school. She is no breath of fresh air. Whatever attacks she can make against our current Governor can be made against her. She is a creature of politics and everyone knows it. That will be her undoing.
Comment by Peter Frampton Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 9:28 pm
if jbt makes it through the primary, repubs will have nobody but themselves to blame for the next four year drought. she has little chance of winning the primary, and even less of a chance of winning the general. besides, nobody pays attention until after labor day bbefore the election. unless a weakened, broke repub comes out of a battering primary. then thatg person is buried by blagos war chest — never to return.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 10:45 pm
If you guys are working on Rod’s gameplan, we Democrats are in trouble.
Judy can’t raise money.
Judy’s too old.
Judy can’t win conservatives.
It sounds like Rod’s gameplan is to hope the Republican’s defeat themselves. Where’s Rod’s message of what he’s done for Illinois? The first line of defense for an incumbent is “why I shouldn’t be fired from my job”, not “Why you shouldn’t hire her.”
Once the voters have made up their minds to fire the incumbent, it doesn’t really matter if the challenger is qualified.
Bottom Line: Not much of a plan. Sounds more like deep do-do.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 23, 05 @ 1:20 am
did anybody read thursdays sun times story about jbt taking money from banks that she deposits our tax dollars in? what a hypocrite! this is just the start. she talks a big game, but lets see how she reacts when the light shines on her. im not saying that she did anything wrong — thats for the voters to decide. im saying that its pathetic to stand in front of the press and say the governor is unethical for raising money form venddors who do business with the state while she is doing just that. even worse, she is just putting that money in those banks — there isnt even an attempt to competatively bid where that money goes. talk about pay to play — she has it made there. its going to get much worse for our beloved treasurer. theres a saying about people who live in glass houses. she should look that one up.
shes in trouble already.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 25, 05 @ 1:03 am
Luddite:
1. Any of a group of British workers who between 1811 and 1816 rioted and destroyed laborsaving textile machinery in the belief that such machinery would diminish employment.
Leaderite:
1. Any of a group of Illinois conservatives who in the present day destroys moderate Republican candidates in the belief that such candidates threatened the ’soul’ of the Party. See ‘Roeser’, ‘Proft’.
Hey, maybe Keyes will run for Governor?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Mar 25, 05 @ 12:40 pm