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* Let’s see your predictions on the following races…
* 6th Congressional - Peter Roskam (R-Incumbent) versus Jill Morgenthaler (D)
* 11th Congressional - Martin Ozinga (R) versus Debbie Halvorson (D)
* 14th Congressional - Bill Foster (D-Incumbent) vs. Jim Oberweis (R)
We’ll do more tomorrow.
Explain your predictions as fully as possible. Thanks.
*** UPDATE *** The DCCC has uploaded its new TV ad blasting “Millionaire Marty Ozinga” who has “problems paying taxes” and is “dumping on the middle class”…
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 10:59 am
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Roskam 59% Morgenthaler 41%. Dems had their shot last election, don’t see Morgenthaler getting much DNCC cash money, that will go to Dan Seals.
Ozinga 52% Halvorson 48%. a) DNCC dropped the ball here and didn’t focus on the local issues, Debbie is getting mauled by being linked to Emil.
b) District is much more GOP than people think. If Debbie doesn’t get big turnouts in Joliet, Lockport and Crete-Monee, she gawn.
c) Foster 52% Oberweis 48%. Jim please go away.
Comment by Fire Ron Guenther Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:04 am
6th - Roskam, the voters there like him. Morgenthaler who?
11th - Halvorson wins because she is popular out there and has grassroots effort going on. Marty who?
14th - Foster wins because Oberweis couldn’t buy an election. Can’t say Oberweis who. That is the problem, they know him. Great ice cream though. Stick with the ice cream and the investments Jim.
Comment by Reading on Walden Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:04 am
6th Roskam, this is a R district and he does not have the negatives that Crane did when he lost to Bean.
11th too close to call. I have seen more Halvorson promo in my area, but she is vulnerable to be tied to the Springfield meltdown.
14th Foster. He’s enough of a surrogate moderate Republican to win the district against Oberweis, who has never demonstrated much charm as a candidate.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:20 am
6th - Roskam, he’s already in & he hasn’t been convicted of anything
11th - Halvorson (maybe) - It’s close and the DCCC is making closer by sending out a flood of idiotic negative fliers. If Halvorson loses, blame the DCCC
14th - Foster - He’s already in & he hasn’t been convicted of anything; plus, he’s not Oberweis.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:23 am
Roskam wins 58 - 42. He can hold that seat as long as he wants. Demographics are changing, but not so much that DuPage will elect a Dem (two years ago the Dem was an exceptional candidate and the seat was open, so that was as exception to the rule).
Ozinga 52, Halvorsen 48. I used to be a huge fan of Debbie, but she deserves to lose this one. If she won’t stand up to Emil this year, I don’t have much confidence that she will show independence in DC. Ozinga seems like a decent enough guy in a district that is still GOP enough to carry him. Halvorsen has this locked up and blundered it away in Springfield.
Foster 56, Obie 44. Foster is a pretty good candidate, the district has changes, Obama will pull the Dems out, and Obie is as bad a candidate as is possible. Foster will win this one and hold it for ten years.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:25 am
Roskam. That district was a bridge too far for Dems.
Ozinga. Lot of Reagan Democrats will punish for Emil. I suspect this will be one of McCain’s better districts in the metro, too.
Foster. The people have spoken — repeatedly — on Oberweiss.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:33 am
Roskam will win, 54%-46%. Hyde usually received about 60%, in that district, so the Republican will win.
Ozinga will win, 52%-48%. In 2006, Weller received 55%. Since Ozinga hasn’t run before, his percentage will be lower.
Oberweis will win, 52%-48%. Hastert usually received about 65%, and Foster won the special election because of a low turnout of Republicans. During the general election, the district will have a high turnout of Republicans and Democrats, and the district has more Republicans.
Comment by PhilCollins Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:37 am
6th, Roskam. 57-43. Morganthaler hasn’t really done a great job of getting her name out there, she’s having trouble raising money, and people and the district like Roskam for some reason. I think it’s because they still remember the speedo commercial from 2 years ago.
11th, Halvorson. 51-49. She has problems, but her commercials are good and all of the linking her to Spgfld messes and Emil, etc is just a bunch of hot air that voters don’t actually believe or care about. Ozinga will partially self-destruct in the next couple of weeks. It’ll be close because of the district, but Halvorson will pull it out.
14th, Foster. 56-44. Gimme a break. Oberweis is a mess and people know it.
Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:38 am
Roskam
Ozinga (in a squeaker)
Oberweis (this is a strong R Dist and McCain/Palin will save him
Comment by AnonPol Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:47 am
In the 14th, there is no way Oberweis can win that election after having blown the first special election. I know strange things can happen and I’m only opining based on what I know about that race. I don’t live there, but I’m thinking that Oberweis isn’t going to break his losing streak in November.
Comment by Levois Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:48 am
Roskam
Ozinga
Obie-even with huge negative history, he has managed to deinfe himself (as not being crazy) and has been quieter, less annoying. At least, he will be out of the state until he runs for Gov in 10. With McCain becoming more popular, that may help him. (Not that Obama will lose this district or state)
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:53 am
14th is I believe a tossup.
I live in the 14th and will vote for Foster in Nov. I have mixed feelings about Foster, but not about Oberweis. Obie has definitely toned down the rhetoric this time and tried to come across as a “warmer gentler” self. Whether that is enough to get him through, or whether or not he just has too much baggage from past races, I don’t know.
An aside, I almost buckled over laughing at the clothes he was wearing at the West Chicago Railroad Days parade this last summer. Obviously he didn’t get the memo. This was the 2008 parade, not the 1978 parade Jim.
train111
Comment by train111 Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:58 am
6th - Roskam: Morganthaler has run an unimpressive campaign, failing to get her name out or set up an issue that distinguishes her from Roskam.
11th - Halvorson: She still has a stong base here, and Ozinga has to many shady dealings in his past.
14th - Foster: Oberweis has sepnt millions over the years getting hsi name out there; unfrotunetly this mean his name is well known by voters as somone they do not want. he needs a new hobby.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:58 am
Roskam-55%, who?-45%.
Ozinga-50%, Halverson-50%, the winner… the ugly one.
Foster will end up killing Oberweis. I would give Foster a 56% to Oberweis’s 44%.
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 12:02 pm
Oh, and I say Foster will win despite the district’s republican leanings. Oberweis has no tact. And I bet you a lot of the old Lauzen people won’t vote for him… why? Well, if you ever volunteered for a gubernatorial campaign that wasn’t Oberweis’s and had to deal with him and his staff, you would know exactly why.
Comment by Heartless Libertarian Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 12:06 pm
Roskam, easily 54-46. Halvorson, 52-48% Dems overperform in D areas; Foster, 52-48, close in this district but Oberweis remains 0 for…
Comment by Will Co Anon Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 12:46 pm
i cant believe i am going to say this, but the dairy man pulls this one out…call it a hunch
Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 12:53 pm
Roskam-this is Henry Hyde’s district
Halvorson-better known
Foster-Oberweis
Comment by Steve Schnorf Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:23 pm
Downstate GOP Faithless -
You may be correct on Obie - Foster didn’t build the grassroots in the primary - that was done by a much more personable - likable and qualified candidate that was one of us (middle-class) - cannot just turn everyone blue without some substance of a personality - Also, rumor has it that Foster is out of his own bucks -
Comment by Collar faithless Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:26 pm
Roskam 58%-42%-The district is too Republican. If Duckworth can’t win, there’s no way Morgenthaler can.
Halvorson 54%-46%. She has better name ID and will pull it out in spite of the DCCC’s trashy mailers. Let’s not forget that Will County is blue now-and I think it will stay that way.
Foster 52%-48%. Obie will make it closer than people think, but at the end of the day, he’s still too much of a kook. People just don’t take him seriously.
Comment by K to the 3 Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:44 pm
Roskam should win re-election by about ten percentage points. I don’t sense that Morgenthaler has much traction in this district and she strikes me as a less electable candidate than Tammy Duckworth two years ago. Roskam also has higher name recognition than he did two years ago in a district that should stay Republican for the forseeable future.
Halvorson ought to win a district that has trended Democratic recently by between six and eight percentage points. It’s a moderate district, and an open seat. That combination alone makes for a steep hill for Ozinga, and Halvorson’s a skilled candidate with pretty good ads. Weller picked a very tough cycle to retire if he wanted the seat to stay Republican.
Foster’s toughest race this year has already taken place. He should defeat the man who makes delicious ice cream by about ten points, maybe more. Turnout will be way up from the special election, but I don’t see Republicans energized to elect Oberweis.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:58 pm
Roskam
Ozinga
Oberweis - The 14th is still the most Republican District in Illinois.
The Chicago union and Daley machine people who helped out Foster in the Special Election will be busy working their own turf.
The Lauzen no shows for the special, especially given it was a saturday, will be coming hell or high water to vote for Palin.
After voting for Palin, they’ll vote for the social conservative Oberweis.
The only real unknown in Illinois is whether Bean can hold on to her seat.
Comment by True Observer Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:24 pm
Roskam @ least 5%
I will go with Ozinga but it is a tossup.
Here is the big one OBY wins and Sarah Palin is the reason for all 3 winners.
GOP retakes the Congress if they keep up pressure on Gas and drilling.
Comment by RAI Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:25 pm
My out of state perspective tells me that Halvorson will pull bigger than Ozinga in her Senate District areas, and that the blue tide will pull her through in the rest of the district. Foster will also pull his race off do to the blue tide, and his continued likability. Morgenthaler is a very nice sacrificial lamb.
Comment by Foreigner Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:40 pm
Roskam 60, Morgenthaler 40
He is the incumbent and has shown a penchant to raise $.
Ozinga 51, Halvorson 49
Debbie’s ties to EJJ will bring her down. This is still a Republican district.
Oberweis 51, Foster 49
The Dems do nothing in D.C. That’s not an opinion - that is a fact. No substantive budgets have yet to be passed. Foster was elected to Congress at the worst time, and I think Oberweis can capitalize.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 2:42 pm
I’ll skip the first two because they are outside of my district.
Oberweis 52 Foster 48
One small, but important fact that hasn’t come up yet is the people that were out helping Foster. During election day, every single precinct had poll watchers out for Foster. The vast majority of them were Dems from Cook County. They were well organized and plentiful. However, that was the only race that day (or month for that matter). When election day rolls around, there will be plenty of work for all of them to do in their home districts and they won’t be out in mass for Foster. Couple that with the Lauzen supporters that had their say by staying home and now they would rather have Foster out and I think the tide turns for Oberweis.
Comment by trafficmatt Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 3:02 pm
3 relatively un-educated prognostications:
Roskam in a runaway; the Col. has run a lousy campaign (why would you issue a press release saying your house got flooded?)
Ozinga in a dead heat; Emil ends up with slightly more baggage than Marty.
Hard to type, but I think that the fourth time will be the charm for the Milkman, based on the demographics of the district.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 4:04 pm
Roskam wins 53%- 46
Ozinga 52%-47 it shouldnt be that close but the GOP is a joke. Halvorson deserves to be linked to E. JONES and the Springfield mess she was his majority leader and helped stall the ethics bill.
Foster 52% - 45% Ice creamman wont even get a lot of the Republicans to vote for him.
Comment by fed up Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 6:32 pm
Roskam will sail through easily as long as he stays out there, keeps it clean (they’ll try to bait him hard) and continues what he’s excellent at, which is “educating” and talking to his Constituents and potential voters. I’ve seen him in action on several ocassions, and he’s a Master. You could say he’s the Melissa Bean of the Republican Party–hard to argue with well-articulated logic.
Halvorson will get through. Ditto on most of what Esquire said.
Jim can definitely pull this one off. The “Lauzen factor” will be gone and it’ll be way to hard for Foster to hold on in that District. As a matter of fact, if he plays his cards well, Jim’ll wind up surprising alot of people even here on this blog–both in his numbers and while in office.
Too soon for numbers, but overall, I think it can go anywhere from 2 - 7 points per race with the winners ranking in the following order:
Roskam
Oberweis
Halvorson
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 7:36 pm
The 11th District is a three-way race.
Comment by Squideshi Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 7:55 pm
Halvorson is too likeable, and any attacks will work in her favor. I’m guessing that only another woman in the race could have helped.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 8:37 pm
“GOP will retake the Congress”-lol
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 8:48 pm
“Collar faithless - Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 1:26 pm:
Downstate GOP Faithless -
You may be correct on Obie - Foster didn’t build the grassroots in the primary - that was done by a much more personable - likable and qualified candidate that was one of us (middle-class) - cannot just turn everyone blue without some substance of a personality - Also, rumor has it that Foster is out of his own bucks”"
The Laesch people are back and still bitter. The ake credit for Foster winning even, As far as qualified, John Laesch is a good organizer but has not served on any boards, not owned a business or any property, has very little if any community involvement (other than his races) Just more sour grapes form the lefties.
Comment by Chanahan Man Monday, Sep 15, 08 @ 11:35 pm
Roskam was born to be a member of the House. He has prepared his entire life for his current position. He is articulate and represents his district extremely well when debating the issues on “the floor”. I believe that he was the national champion in trial lawyer competition while in law school. He listens to his constituency and is intent on representing them by keeping his campaign promises. He should win by 10 points in a traditionally Republican district.
Comment by Ron Maksor Wednesday, Sep 17, 08 @ 11:43 pm