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Your final Illinois campaign predictions, please. This post will close at 7 pm.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:35 am
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My crystal ball is broken so here are my guesses…
…Congress…
Seals upsets Kirk by a point or two (sorry Team America).
Bean holds easily.
Foster holds by a wider margin than the special.
Roskam holds, barely.
Harper is the dark horse story of the night as he catches Biggert off guard.
…Locally…
Mark Walker by 2-3 points (IL-66 Representative).
Dan Kotowski by 5-7 points (IL-33 Senate).
Aurora Austriaco I think won’t make it.
Paul Froehlich and Fred Crespo pull out squeakers.
Cook State’s Atty: Alvarez 60% - Peraica 35% - O’Brien 5%
IL Pres: Obama 58% - McCain 40% - Other 2%
IL US Senate: Durbin 56% - Sauerberg 40% - Other 4%
…We’ll see how wrong I am by about 8 or 9pm.
Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:43 am
Wintermute defeats Holmes 51-48
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:45 am
I see more votes for independent party candidates in the presidential and even some congressional races — much more than anticipated. It won’t change any outcomes in the presidential election due to the Electoral College system of counting, but it will be a clear signal that the American public is disgusted with both political parties.
Comment by Capitol View Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:50 am
After filling my sink with hot water and dumping a garbage bag full of tea leaves onto the water the prophets have revealed to me the following.
Burzynski 52% Forby 46%
Obama 58% McCain 39%
Durbin 76% Suerberg 10%
Mike Bost 67% Howe 19% Graph 14%
Comment by Speaking At Will Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:56 am
I predict that the GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips by Diersen will not take up so much space on Illinoize in coming days.
Comment by tubbfan Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 9:57 am
I just had a big glass of Obama Koolaid, which I had refrained from sipping for some time.
Obama 60-40. I think it’s a house on fire for him. Rising tide brings in Seals, and in a big surprise, Morgenthaler. Halvoson, Foster win big.
Con-Con loses. Too much anti-money plus massive public employee no vote dooms it. Jim Edgar anti spot especially persuasive for the fence leaners.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:01 am
Congress: Seals, Roskam, Foster, Halvorson, Biggert, Bean all win.
Senate: Duffy, Kotowksi, Murphy, Wintermute, Burzynski, Bivins all win.
House: Biss, Mulligan, Mathias, Kosel, Hoffman, Crespo, Walker, Munson, Froelich all win.
Comment by suburbs Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:07 am
There will be a number of states where McCain exceeds expectations or even pulls off an upset. Illinois will NOT be one of them.
Comment by Mgmax Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:08 am
Speaking at Will seems to have hit the nail on the head.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:09 am
Obama 54% McCain 46%
Durbin 65% Sauerberg 35%
Holmes loses…
Seals beats Kirk…
Halvorsen romps…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:12 am
Bean 53-47
Kirk 50.5-49.5
Duffy 58-42
Mathias 53-47
Washington, be very careful with this one folks. Something is not right here.
Comment by Lake Co. Voter Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:15 am
Kirk wins easily then predicted
Bean, Roskam, Foster, Halvorson all win
Schock wins
Con-con narrowly passes
Obama wins Illinois…McCain wins election.
Forby is upset…anf Hoffman just gets by.
AND Don Gray wins Sangamon County Recorder of Deeds!
Comment by scoot Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:17 am
Halvorson will win, but Wallace will pick up a good share of protest votes. It’s too early to tell if the “Obama effect” will produce a partisan coattail effect, or a rash of ticket-splitting and independent thought (a possibility not considered too much by the pundits, many who have never seen a wave like this). As one who prefers a healthy discussion and debate of ideas, I prefer the latter.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:18 am
Obama wins (duh).
Durbin wins (duh).
Competitive House Races:
6 - Roskam wins, closer than expected
8 - Bean wins, closer than expected (paying the price for her bailout vote)
10 - Seals pulls it off
11 - Halvorson romps. Ozinga gets killed because of his “everybody has healthcare - just go to the emergency room” comment.
13 - Biggert wins, closer than expected
14 - Foster creams Oberweiss.
18 - Callahan pulls off a very narrow upset (ok, I’m probably dreaming here)
State legislature races
I’ve only followed the Biss/Coulson Campaign.
Biss pulls off the upset.
Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:21 am
Illinois Dem sweep. The Country loses as we will be subjected to Illinois style politics on a national scale.
Comment by Master of the Oblivious Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:22 am
Oh, Cook County Races -
All the Democrats win.
Greens do better than expected though. (I voted for a few greens as protest votes)
Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:22 am
FWIW:
mccain 50% obama 49%
bean 55% greenberg 45%
oberweis 51% foster 49%
munson 53% farnham 47%
durbin 60% sauerberg 40%
schmitz 60% shattuck 40%
Comment by elgin Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:22 am
I forgot to add…Biggert wins.
Comment by scoot Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:22 am
Master -
And the country hasn’t been losing already these past 8 years under conservative rule?
Lost jobs. Lost wages. Lost buying power. Lost health insurance. Lost opportunity. Lost respect.
Need I go on, because I can…. but your sour-grapes-in-advance was already off-topic to begin with.
Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:29 am
Obama 62%
McCain 37%
Durbin 75%
Sauerburg 24%
Halvorsen 65%
Ozinga 29%
Wallace 5.5%
Con-Con
Yes 43%
No 57%
Comment by HoBoSkillet Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:30 am
I predict the Con-Con fails, but Con-Con supporters feel the election is tainted and grumble about challenging the results in court.
Obama breaks 60% in Illinois. Minor party presidential candidates get between 1.8-2.5% combined.
Durbin gets over 65% but less than 70%.
Congressional winners: Roskam, Bean, Seals, Halvorson, Biggert, Foster and Schock. Noteworthy non-winners: Pohlen (Green) breaks 5% against Lipinski, Wallace (Green) gets almost 10% in IL11 and Harper comes within 5% against Biggert.
Alvarez beats Peraica about 57-38. Peraica overperforms in African-American community and underperforms in the ‘burbs.
Green Party has significant number of candidates who break 5%, but none that are close to getting elected.
Oh, and Dan Biss wins, but by a slim margin. Froelich wins approx 55-45.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:32 am
I think Gary Forby is going to lose. Can’t be sure but his candidate is the best the GOP have run against him thus far.
Comment by Little Egypt Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:39 am
Obama 58
Durbin 63
Kirk… 53
Bean 58
Roskam 55
Halvorsen 57
Biggert 54
Alvarez 57
Crespo 54
Forte-Scott 52
Con Con-no
Harper, yes
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:40 am
THis pathetic, last minute claim by StateWideTom….Wednesday’s ribbon-cutting ceremony included speeches from nine legislators. Most gave a majority of the credit for keeping the project on the forefront to state Rep. Brent Hassert, R-Romeoville.
“He was in there every day convincing the governor that this was needed yesterday,” House Minority Leader Tom Cross, R-Oswego, said….confirms that Hassert is going down.
If Brent had cared as much about I-55 as he did about protecting the gamblers and predatory lenders this project Which should go to Braidwood) would have been done three years ago not three hours before election day.
Many have been wondering why this rather simple widening project took three long years.
ByeBye Brent
Comment by EmptySuitParade Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:48 am
Durbin 70%
Obama 60-65%
Alavarez 67%
Biss vs Coulson - Biss 53-54%
Seals 52%
Foster/Halvorson/Bean/Shock/Biggert win fairly easily.
Con-Con loses
Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:50 am
Obama and Durbin win huge (at or near 70%). Congressional winners: Halvorson, Seals very close, Foster/Bean/Biggert and Shock. Biggest upset, Roskam loses. Hoffman loses a close one - Pat Welch close. Con-Con wins - there won’t be enough no votes to stop it. Alvarez wins big 65-68%. Tony is done.
Comment by babs Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:51 am
Durbin and Obama — easy in IL
Havorson wins
Foster wins
Seals slips in
Senate Dem incumbents all win. Forby by 52-48.
Senate Repubs lose one — either Duffy or Murpy
House Dems pick up 2
House Rep pick up 1
Con-Con fails — sorry Rich
Comment by Glam-Or-Party Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:52 am
Many have been wondering why this rather simple widening project took three long years.
From the amount of work needed with all the bridge widenings and such, the project timetable seemed pretty reasonable to me. Of course, the state could’ve thrown more bags of money at the project like Hillside Strangler and got it done quicker. Out of the many mismanaged things in the state, this project really isn’t one to pick on, IMHO. And let the intermodal developers like Center Point and River Port pay for the I-55 widening to Braidwood; they are the ones that are and will be loading up that section with trucks.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:55 am
I predict that the election will be over so the campaign ads finally cease.
This will be follwed by an endless period of TV pundits telling us why we voted the way we did.
WINNERS: Professional Politicians
LOSERS: Citizens who want real and honest leadership.
Comment by Skeptic Cal Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 10:56 am
Illinois:
Obama over McCain 60%-40%ish
Durbin gets over 65%
Con-con fails by not by much (58%-42%)
Schock over Callahan 53%-47%
Larry Bomke gets over 70%
Ray Poe gets 60+%
Libri over Tulmuty 52%-48%
Gray over Langfelder 50.1%-49.9%
Comment by jwscott72 Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:01 am
Six:
Traffic has run heavy to Braidwood for more than a decade…ByeByeBrent could have pressed Edgar or George for this project.
It would have happened long before the truc terminals.
In the end he dropped the ball, traffic sux and voters will send their regards today.
BTW did the media ask Obama how he voted on the ConCon con?
Comment by EmptySuitParade Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:04 am
Tumulty gets her *SS handed to her
Gray wins easily
Obama wins IL with 75% (loses general by 2 points)
Aaron Schock by 1 1/2 points
Don Manzullo 16th district by 20 points
Durbin loses by 10 points (ok I’m just dreaming)
Comment by Bubba Franks Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:08 am
Linda Holmes takes out Wintermute once and for all, & Dems surround Tom Cross w/Chapa La Via, Holmes, Foster and 1 of the 2 Naperville House seats going Dem, and Holmes’ Senate seat goes big for Obama, bigger than most expect …This is Kendall County, right?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:25 am
And the country hasn’t been losing already these past 8 years under conservative rule?
As an independent, I can’t remember the last time this country had “conservative” rule. Maybe what happened in the past 8 years passes for “conservatism” in this day and age, but I didn’t see much in the way of classical wisdom, reflection, conservation and principled decision making by politicians of any stripe.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:28 am
Obama 62/35 over McCain
Seals over Kirk
Roskam in a squeaker
Foster breaks 55%
Gailey breaks 45% in 35th Senate.
Comment by Rich O Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:31 am
Obama will win 285 electoral votes. Democrats will gain two seats in the U.S. Senate and four seats in the U.S. House. Jim Oberweis, Steve Greenberg, Marty Ozinga, and Aaron Schock will win.
We haven’t had conservative rule while Bush has been president. He’s too liberal. His tax cuts were too small, and his spending increases were too large. He says that he’s pro-life, but he signed a few bills that gave money to Planned Parenthood and the World Health Organization so that they could perform abortions. He wanted to give amnesty to illegal aliens.
Comment by Phil Collins Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 11:46 am
Obama - 58%
Palin- most of what’s left
Durbin -62%
other guy -36%
Poe - more chicken dinners than you can count
Sangamon County coroner - Aby Phoenix (who would not want a coroner with anme like that?)
Comment by Captain Flume Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:00 pm
Obama wins 62%-36%
Durbin wins 65%-35%
Seals wins 55%-45%
Roskam wins 52%-48%
Bean wins 57%-43%
Biggert wins 55%-45%
Halvorson wins 53%-37%-10%
Foster wins 55%-45%
Schock wins 54%-46%
Con-con passes
Comment by ben Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:13 pm
Obama
Durbin
Halvorson
Foster
Schock
Seals…Kirk…Seals…Kirk…IDK
and all the rest of the incumbent Congressfolks
Con-con, but I am still trying to figure “A Convention shall be called if approved
by three-fifths of those voting on the question or a majority of those voting in the election.” Maybe I’m just tired…
If everybody votes on the question and it gets 55% of the vote, does it pass?
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:18 pm
Biggert loses 53-47 sadly
Kirk wins 51-49
Con Con fails 57-43
Roskam wins 54-46, unfortunately
GOP loses 8 U.S. Senate Seats and 25 House seats.
Biggest stories going forward: How the GOP becomes relevant again outside the south and plains, and the Illinoisization of D.C.-you couldn’t go 2 minutes 5 years ago without meeting a texan there.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:28 pm
Kirk, Roskam, Schock, Lil’ Debbie, Biggert, Foster, Durbin.
Cook County Dems sweep all county-wide races.
Con Con barely loses, lawsuit filed over notice by pro con con peeps.
Wintermute beats Holmes.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:35 pm
I think Obama will win Illinois but lose the overall election. Forte Scott will beat Froehlich. Durbin will lose, and Con Con will lose. Illinois is ready for change.
Comment by Boscobud Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 12:44 pm
I would just like to point out that Barry Goldwater was pro-choice before he died. Isn’t he a conservative? Also, while I’m at it, I’ll point out that illegal immigration is not a liberal/conservative issue. A fiscal conservative may very well deem the market should take care of it, not the government.
Now back to your regularly scheduled ranting.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 1:09 pm
What do I get when I make the most accurate predictions?
In Illinois:
Obama wins with 63%
Durbin wins with 65%
ConCon loses with 46%
Kirk wins with 51%
Foster wins with 53%
Roskam wins with 54%
Bean wins with 54%
Bigger wins with 52%
Halvorson wins with 53%
Schock wins with 55%
Alvarez wins with 60%
Froehlich wins with 50%
Comment by phocion Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 1:32 pm
Obama 52%
Durbin 70%
Schock 58%
Libri 55%
Bomke 72%
Aby Phoenix 50.5%
Langfelder 52%
Comment by Shallow Pharnyx Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 1:58 pm
AA’s predictions are worth exactly what you pay for them.
With that disclaimer:
Federal:
Obama wins with 60+% (but will Bill have a seat?)
Durbin wins with 65+%
ConCon:
Loses, but close. Agree with others that Edgar ad was a good closer. Conduct in handling ballot fiasco may turn out to be what we all talk about for months after the election and could have implications for AG Madigan in 2010.
Congress:
Kirk wins narrowly.
Foster blows out the milkman. (buh-bye, Obie)
Roskam wins comfortably.
Bean wins by a few.
Biggert wins more closely than she would like.
Halvorson squeaks it out.
Schock big win-maybe 55%. Colleen found her voice too late.
Local:
Poe, Brauer, Bomke all big winners.
Libri holds his spot as voters will pick a pol who serves his country and seems to do the job over a shrill challenger who can’t take notes.
Schmidt also wins as his opponent learns on Election Day that he is not running against John’s dad.
The Langfelder name gives Josh the edge over Don Gray.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:06 pm
Obama will win, though I think he may lose in a few states he was expected to win, but will win in some states he was not expected to lose.
In Illinois - 75%
Nationally - 56%
The Con-Con will go down handily - but I expect to see lots of new amendments in the next few years.
Comment by Ted E Bear Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:12 pm
That should be he will win in a few states he was expected to lose.
Look for a Squeaker in the Schock-Callahan race.
Durbin by a very large margin.
Blago will lose a few allies at the Statehouse.
Look to see a lot of surprises nationally.
Comment by Ted E Bear Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:17 pm
Obama wins but it is closer then people thought. 290-244 (He loses Ohio and Florida but wins Montana of all places) In Illinois he wins 59-40.
I picked her in the primary and I will pick her in the general. Alvarez wins 66-31 with the rest of the votes to the Green party.
All Dems win in Cook County’s ticket (I know going out on a limb)
Halvorson wins but it is close.
Roskam wins. Seals wins.
Klunk-McAsey pulls it out over Hassert.
Comment by Darkhorse Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:25 pm
Kendall County will remain completely red.
Comment by Oswego Joe Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:29 pm
I predict we’ll be seeing far fewer comments in the near future. I, for one, won’t miss the wisdom and insight of Black Ivy and others who joined us for the past few months and now likely will move on to something a bit more productive with their lives. Or so I hope.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:31 pm
Obama 62%, McCain 34%, Obama wins nationally with 338. Durbin 67%. Bean 55%. Kirk wins a squeaker, maybe 51%. Con con fails. Lawsuit tomorrow.
“14 - Foster creams Oberweiss.” -jerry101
I see what you did there!
Here’s to everyone having a fun, safe election night, and no matter what the outcome, remember this is a great country and we are privileged to have our voices heard!
Comment by doubtful Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:43 pm
Oswego Joe - Ask “Boy”d, and Obie about how RED Kendall County is … As a Repub in Kendall,& voting for Wintermute, Cross, et al … I can see the writing on the wall … can’t you?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 2:49 pm
Willy-
Didn’t “Boyd” lose to another Republican? And I’d expect Foster to act like a moderate Republican ala Melissa Bean to keep his seat for awhile. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a “Republicans for Foster” movement if Lauzen tries to challenge him in 2010. Will be interesting to see if 1 or 2 Co Board seats turn Blue. Hatcher should win the 50th in a walk.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 3:26 pm
Hopefully, to end this…my point … Kendall “old guard, we run this show” Repubs are fading fast when Cross is surrounded by his senator and house member and his congressman all easily in the Dem column, and to the point, this very election solidifies them, so you have to wonder, “Is this still Kendall County?” Times, they are a changin’.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 3:35 pm
And to end my point-
Turn to the person on your left, turn to the person on your right in Kendall County…odds are, one of ‘em has arrived in the last 5 years. All that growth has brought in new faces. Tough to have an “old guard” under those conditions… although, like Bill Cellini, when they’re in, they’re in, and when they’re out, they’re still in. By 2050, Kendall will be like a mini-Du Page County, but who knows what it’ll look like? The old guard in Du Page is disappearing, too, but today’s young guard is tomorrow’s old guard:-)
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 4:31 pm
jerry 101 — I agree; Greens exceed low expectations in Cook County.
Comment by Name for Today Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 4:37 pm
A rising tide and all that:
Obama 62% (354 electoral)
Durbin 65%
Halvorson 52%
Foster 58%
Biggert 53%
Roskam 52%
Schock 55%
Seals 50.2%
Bean 59%
Holmes 50.8%
Duffy 55%
Kotowski 58%
Murphy 52%
Biss 51%
Wait 53%
Astriaco 52%
Klunk-McAsey 52%
Con-Con: 48%
Comment by Knickerbocker Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 4:49 pm
I would bet Oswego (largest population in Kendall County) goes blue. Many newcomers and many disgusted with far right.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 4:58 pm
Oswego Willy makes interesting points about old Kendall County, however “Anonymous” who talks about Oswego going blue. Why would newcomers be disgusted with the right? They moved there because of the responsible conservatives in power, that made Kendall County a great place to live. Why would they want to change that? Many of these folks are from the city and used to voting for dems because that’s all they know. However, there are new faces out there working to help them understand its ok to be a Republican. This election is tough with B.O. on the ballot and the “old guard” may be moving out but there are new leaders ready to step up.
Comment by Oswego Joe Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 6:02 pm
Thanks for noticing Rob_N; however, I wasn’t totally off topic as I did say a Dem sweep. Didn’t see your prediction(s) anywhere? Oh yeah, funny how the sour grapes comment by you is almost as funny as your whine. Get it wine? Lighten up it ain’t your blog.
Comment by Master of the Oblivious Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 7:08 pm
To Rob_N: I digress and formally retract my last comment about your predictions not being there.
Comment by Master of the Oblivious Tuesday, Nov 4, 08 @ 7:11 pm