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What do you think are the chances that former state Sen. Patrick O’Malley jumps into, and stays into, the governor’s race? Which Repub does it hurt or help the most, and how will he do if he stays in?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 3:40 am
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He hurts Oberweis and helps Brady, Birkett and Rauschenberger.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 7:35 am
Why?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 7:40 am
He hurts all of them except Topinka. Chasing the same right wing core will help the name brand moderate.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 7:45 am
I would love to see PJO make the big run but given his lack luster performance against Corrine Wood and Jim Ryan in 2002 I have to say that the Prince of Darkness is just missing the lime-light and is only doing this for a bit of attention and to make all of the wanna-be candidates run to the FAR RIGHT!
Comment by TheNEEF Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 8:09 am
Hey, a bored millionaire may run just because he can’t lower his golf handicap anymore and needs to feed his ego…oh wait isn’t that why “Obei One” jumped in?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 8:16 am
I respect Pat; I also wonder if he’s too conservative to win statewide in a general election.
Comment by FightforJustice Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 8:52 am
FightForJustice wondered, “…if he’s too conservative…”
I don’t think that’s a question there my friend, I think that’s a fact.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 9:08 am
Answer to the first question - the chances are great that PJO jumps into and stays in the governor’s race.
There’s little doubt, in some strange minds, that Illinois is ripe for a total and complete ban on abortions (except if you can afford it and/or don’t mind leading the country club gossip group about your best friend’s husband’s secretary).
He’s a man of strong conviction - and God seems to be a good political flavor with the GOP Primary voter. Doesn’t matter, by the way, if you really live up to all that stuff - just if you SAY you believe it (see: Bush, George W.)
Second question - Who does it hurt in the Primary? Not sure on this one, but, my fingers are tightly crossed that it HELPS Raymond Poe. I’d volunteer to be the coordinator between the Lt. Gov & Gov. What great material it would be for this cynic!
How will he do? Probably fair enough. I’d doubt that he’ll win the primary. He’ll generate and build a statewide following of wackjobs that need a showhorse. Eaton will be all happy and wanna be seen at church with him and everything.
Guys like O’Malley ought to raise the brow of voters - Democrat, Independent and, especially, Republicans. But, they don’t often seem to.
Sure, he’s a good looking, white-haired, white skinned respectable lookin kind of guy. But, I’m not so sure he gets it…this life that ordinary people have to live in.
The key, by the way, to beating him, is to expose his tatoos - I’d bet he has some of the strangest ones imaginable.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 9:36 am
O’Malley helps Rod the most.
O’Malley also helps Doug Santos and Cathy Ibendahl and Fran Eaton and all the political malcontents who have screwed up everything they have done politically.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 9:54 am
O’Malley would probably cannibalize Rauschenberger’s vote the most.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 10:18 am
If O’Malley can get some quiet yet significant help from the Keyes wing of the party (which is a clear majority of the GOP primary turnout), he can definitely win.
He’s face-off with Judy could be a replay of Fitgerald v. Didrickson. For those of you who don’t remember, this flashback article from former House Dem staffer Kirk Mottram in the
Daily Egyptian is helpful.
The bigger question is, can O’Malley get back to the center fast enough to compete with Rod (assuming he wins the primary, an iffy proposition if Jack Franks gets in)? I’m sure his dossier of extreme statements is already thick, and Equality Illinois and Personal PAC will provide the opposition research for free. Still, I think it would go down to the wire if he runs as a Peter Fitzgerald Republican, especially with Fitgerald’s endorsement.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 1:38 pm
I think Mr. O’Malley should run in the Republican primary, by doing so he can point out the stark differeces between the conservative and the moderate wings of the Illinois Republican party.
By the time the primary is over if Mr. O’Malley wins the moderates won’t vote for him and if Ms. Topinka wins the conservatives won’t vote for her.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 1:58 pm
Yellow Dog, what planet are you from? The Keyes wing is the majority of Republican primary vote? Franks runs against Rod? What the heck?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 2:04 pm
One can only hope that Chicago’s lap dog in McHenry (AKA Jack Franks) runs against Rod in a primary. That way we’d get rid of one of them……
But I guess it’s more likely that the Gov. will make up with his in-law than that happening.
As for O’Malley - if Steve R is in, he is out. And vice versa.
Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 2:16 pm
If Franks ran, it would only behoove the guv. Franks and a potential Lisa Madigan candidacy would split the anti Blago vote. If only Franks ran, he still couldn’t surmount the guv.
It’ll probably end up Rauschy/JBT or O’Malley/JBT or Rauschy/OMalley/JBT. I expect Obie and Birkett, who have some self-respect to abort. I don’t know, though about Rauschy and JBT in a one on one primary, it could be like Didrickson/Fitzgerald….
Comment by AmyEAllen Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 5:00 pm
How does O’Malley’s running behoove Brady/Birkett/Rauschy……They would split the conservative vote 4 X.
Comment by AmyEAllen Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 5:01 pm
Keyes Wing of the GOP?
More like “Keyes Winglet.”
Louis G. Atsaves
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 7:29 pm
If O’Malley wins GOP primary, Blago wins big in general.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 9:31 pm
PM would be a loser for the GOP.
The majority of the primary voters are not the conservative nutcases that seem to be identified here in this thread-thus, PM, JBT, Oberweis, Birkett, and Rauschy would absolutely cancel each other out.
The majority of the mainstream Republicans in Illinois (and the general public) are simply looking for a respected, smart, scandle-free candidate-the the obvious choice thus far is either LaHood or possibly State Senator Rutherford. The candidate also needs to “look” and “sound” like a leader-so when he or she gets to the debates, they can make Roddog appear to be exactly what he is-incapable of making the tough decisions and possessing no leadership abilities.
They must be able to connect with the average person, and be able to raise the dollars needed to beat the incumbant (everythings for sale) governor.
From talking to the few “insiders” allowed in the current administration, LaHood scares them the most, which is why they are doing everything possible to nuke him. They do not want a responsible adult running against them-they obviously prefer a “kook”. Then the plan is to spend the dollars alternating between going negative and saying “I didn’t raise your taxes” (though they had better not talk to any truckers or farmers).
Comment by Roy Slade Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 10:37 pm
Please…..Allen Keyes is absolutely NOT a factor. Please do not confuse the issues here- Keyes was certainly a mistake last election, and hopefully the leadership in the party learned something. I have NEVER met a fellow republican who thought AK was anything but a joke (insert mistake or any other word that fits). Btw, does anyone remember who the lite gov candidate was in ‘86 for the Dems? Does the name Fairchild come to mind? Do the Dems still claim him as “one of their guys”?
Comment by Roy Slade Monday, Apr 18, 05 @ 10:43 pm