Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: More on Gidwitz/Rauschenberger
Next Post: Rauschenberger won’t run with anyone else
Posted in:
Now that Steve Rauschenberger has dropped down from the governor’s race, do you think that either Jim Oberweis or Bill Brady will drop out, or will they end up splitting the conservative core?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:02 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: More on Gidwitz/Rauschenberger
Next Post: Rauschenberger won’t run with anyone else
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
As I said yesterday:
“Finally, a word of caution to all of those who think Topinka is going to win this election hands down. My money is on Brady or Oberweis.”
I think with Rauschenberger out, the conservatives will line up behind Brady. He’s their future.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:11 am
Wow. The IL GOP’s efforts to guide their party fail miserably again. I am sure this is not what McKenna or Topinka had in mind when they tried to brow beat the other candidates into dropping out. This is a double whammy for Topinka.
If either Obie or Brady drop out, I think it is more likely to be Brady. However, I dont see either happening. If the Republican Party was smart, they would unite behind Brady. If I were Obie and Brady, I would have our heads together to figure out how they can work together to win this thing. And, yes, they can easily defeat Topinka.
Comment by JSM Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 4:23 am
This is what myself and alot of fellow Republicans have been waiting for. And I dont mean a Gidwitz/Rauschy team-up.
With Rauschenberger dropping out it leaves our fellow conservatives with two choices for the Republican nomination - Oberweis or Brady.
We need to unite behind one of them if we want to win nomination and see Republican values brought back into state government.
We may never have this opportunity for a long time. Lets not waste it.
Comment by Proud Republican Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 6:01 am
It looks like Steve has found his sugardaddy. If he loses, does this eclipse John Cox, since he will have lost 2 races? And finally, he will be a fine Lt Gov with his T-shirt battle already prepping him for his duties.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 6:21 am
You guys gotta check out Kass’ column in the Tribune today. It rips Topinka, McKenna, and Topinka’s sugardaddy, Bob Kjellender (i.e Karl Roves Henchman) pretty good!
Highlights:
“It might just spell trouble for GOP front-runner and Illinois Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, despite how her allies in the Illinois political combine try to spin it, as she’s the candidate firmly identified with a Republican Party establishment that is leprous with scandal.”
“The Gidwitz-Rauschenberger partnership was prompted by a clumsy effort by GOP Chairman Andrew McKenna Jr. last Friday to squeeze out other candidates and give Topinka the field. Rauschenberger told me that Gidwitz eviscerated the party insiders in a speech behind closed doors that convinced him he could support Gidwitz.”
“I remember asking McKenna whether he’d take a stand on the Kjellander [corruption] matter. McKenna told me he was committed to reform. He asked for 90 days to form a plan. When that time was up, I saw a photo taken in Will County, at a Republican dinner. Laughing and chatting were Kjellander and Rove. Between them, happy, sat McKenna, whose witticisms must have been quite entertaining.”
“Kjellander is behind Topinka, though you wouldn’t know it from news coverage. He’s one of those missing details…”
I agree. This Rove/McKenna/Topinka Love Triangle needs further investigation.
Link to Kass article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-0512070214dec07,1,588577.column?coll=chi-news-nav
Comment by JSM Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 6:30 am
This should be called the Dream team or Judy’s nightmare in Springfield:
With Senator Rauschenberger now running for Lt. Governor and Representative Poe and Watson deciding to stay as State Representatives, this leaves Sandy Wegman, Bruckner and Kurtheria running against Rauschenberger. This should be an easy win for Rauschenberger. Gidwitz brings his money and the ability to get media coverage for he and Rauschenberger. With the bulk of the Conservatives going to Brady and Personal pack and the Pro-Lifers mad at Judy, I see dark days ahead for Judy. Gidwitz doesn’t stand a chance in the primary but will make a wonderful Pit Bull attacking Judy. By March we could easily have a Brady Rauschenberger dream team to take on the Blago.
Comment by The Conservative Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:05 am
Brady drops out Obie picks up all of the Conservative vote and wins the primary.
Comment by Southern IL. Dem Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:08 am
Obie will never drop out…. good news for media outlets that will take all his milk money. I say Sen. “Tom” Brady will pull the upset and walk into the Governor’s mansion after beating the Blago machine with 80% of the downstate vote.
Comment by Troy News Guy Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:14 am
You anti and pro abortion people keep trying to make this your election.It is and had better be more than the issues you care about.We have a huge amount of problems in this state.Have any of you considered a defecit that has gotten so bad under this governor that it is going to drag this state down.Political reform,pay for play,qualified people running our state agencies and on and on.Or do you want to skip those problems and give it back to Blago for 4 more.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:17 am
I hope Obie gets in there. Topinka is a part of the problem especially after she and George Ryan ran this state into an 8 billion dollar defecit with their borrowing and insider political pork projects.
Go Obie! Republicans unite!
Comment by No one special Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:26 am
Go Rauschy go! there is nothing in IL politics that is a LOCK, but Steveo winning the Lt. Gov GOP nod is a cinch!! Book it Danno.
Comment by 23eyes Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:49 am
First off, it doesn’t matter which of the current bunch team up — Blago will be reelected. Now, Brady should drop down or out. He may be young and articulate, but he is running into Obie’s money and statewide name recognition. Say what you want about him, but he did come in second in the last senate race. If it’s Obie, Topinka, and Gidwitz in the primary, Obie wins. Gidwitz will cut enough off of Topinka’s moderate vote to allow Obie to win with the entire conservative, reform vote.
By the way, Rauschenberger is pathetic opportunistic panderer, but will likely be the republican lt. gov. candidate. Today would be a sad day for me if I were republican. After bashing Topinka since her announcement, would Rauschenberger then run with her if they both win their respective races? How could he look himself in hte mirror each morning?
Comment by the Dude Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 7:52 am
The interesting thing that nobody has covered is how Topinka royally screwed the pooch. She was shopping hard for a Lt. Gov. Candidate but Raymond Poe was not good enough for her. (Which would have helped her balance her own ticket.)
Instead, she says no to Poe and doesn’t endorse anyone. Now she has to contend with a much tougher primary because of Gidwitz/Rauschy.
Gidwitz brings the Cash, Rauschy gives credibility. Tough Combo to beat
Atta girl Judy.
Comment by Sporty Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:16 am
While circulating petitions absolutely no one linked up Judy Barr Topinka with George Ryan. No one.
Where is this huge debate coming from? How exactly are Judy and George joined at the hip? Eight years ago nearly every single republican supported George Ryan.
I know some people around here are highly imaginative, but . . .
Louis G. Atsaves
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:24 am
The Conserative may have it right on this one. I was delighted to hear the news this morning about Rauschie but was disappointed that he has joined up with Gidwitz. Now is the time for Brady to turn it up a notch or two. It doesn’t have to go offensive on JBT or Gidwitz but does need to get himself out there more and in the news. He has got to get his name recognition up. I think if voters saw and heard more of him they would be impressed. Get off the mat Bill and go get it!
Comment by ExileOnMainStreet Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:25 am
Judy soon drops out and returns as treasurer…as planned.
Gidwitz stays focused on nemesis Blago, so Brady might pull ahead as Obie fumbles again.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:26 am
FYI, I’ve read Rauschenberger says he would resign his candidacy if someone besides Gidwitz wins the primary.
If I were reporters, I’d lock him in on that one.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:34 am
Milkman is always dangerous because of his money. He stays in the race because he is bored with life and wants to have a voice. Brady looks good, but $$$ is still the issue with him. JBT is just taking up space. The Gidwitz/Rauschy team make it even more interesting for Slick Rod to focus until March.
Comment by SouthernILRepub Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:49 am
I find something very positive in each potential Republican candidate and also find it encouraging that many Republicans are actually trying to dig themselves out of the terrible mess left by the Ryan-Thompson-Kjellander combine. With little help from these three gentlemen, of course. Kjellander is counting his cash and Thompson sounds like he is for Blagojevich.
I also think Gidwitz, with his background and brains, would be an excellent governor, but there is absolutely no way he could win. No African Americans will vote for him, nor will any Latinos. And the left liberal contingent (personified by Carol Ronen and Jan Schakowsky)
will vote for Blago even if he is indicted.
I really think JBT is the only hope for regaining the state house. She has broad appeal and don’t forget the increasing appeal of women executives as Hillary prepares to run.
Having said that, JBT clearly doesn’t have a competent staff yet. I tried to call her Riverside campaign office several times Monday to ask about yard signs, etc and nobody answered the phone! In the middle of the day! There is no place on the website to contribute money! Paypal!
Hello!
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:55 am
Wow, this is going to be an odd day because I find myself in almost total agreement with Yellow Dog. I don’t think either Oberweis or Brady will drop out or down, and I think Brady will squeak out a win. With respect to the Dude’s comments, Oberweis’s money ain’t everything (ask the countless other millionaires who have run for statewide office only to end up as a punchline on this blog, and a million dollars poorer), and his name recognition? Politics isn’t show business - not all publicity is good publicity…..and Oberweis’s name ID comes mostly from bad (or at least unflattering) publicity.
Comment by grand old partisan Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 8:58 am
YDD…you’re not the only one thinking that…
Look…this is a real problem for JBT. When it comes time to vote, conservatives aren’t stupid, they’re going to want to beat Rod in the fall. With that said…they’ll look at Oberweis and say “not again” and they’ll look at Brady and say “he’s not ready.” That leaves them in a bind as they’ll look at the last two names on the ballot “Topinka and Gidwitz.” When it comes time to vote for the moderate they can get behind, it’ll be Ron because of the deal he and Steve made today.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:03 am
Can we stop bickering for a minute and remember those who lost their lives at Pearl Harbor.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
Comment by The Arizona Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:05 am
Are any of you even aquainted with Brady’s nothing record in government and his questionable business practices?
Comment by anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:11 am
What are his questionable practices?
Comment by SouthernILRepub Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:14 am
Looks like another homerun for GRod!
Wonder why AccordianGal did not pick Whinenburger?
Oh, I know. It would have made sense.
Now if ChopperJim grabs Poe for the RealDealMeal ticket the feast can begin.
Should be a fun day
I hear RonnieG and the Whiner are looking for index cards to print their “shared” position piece
NewsFlash to the ElginQueen — keep that greeter spot open, the Whiner will be there soon.
Comment by reddbyrd Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:16 am
Cass 8:55am I can believe that no one answered the phone at her Riverside campaign office. You have encountered a very shrewed but unsuccessful attempt to hoodwink the public. I think you are half right. She has staff all right, but not competent, as I’ll explain.
I really think this ignoring of phone calls at the campaign office is really a conspiracy by all her state workers to make people think they aren’t doing campaign work when they really are. They are no doubt inside the campaign office with the doors locked, lights out, and heat off eating their donuts and smugly thinking they’ve tricked us. Clever on their part, but not enough. Even I could see through it.
Better luck next time, Riverside staff.
Comment by Conservative Expert Analyst Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:26 am
What many in the media and the GOP establishment don’t realize is how conservative the GOP primary is. JBT has never had to run a contested race in the GOP primary, especially where social issues matter. In the past two general elections, she’s run against weak Democratic opposition. These past perfomances are not indicitive of her the winning the nomination.
First, she has yet to be defined. When you run for Treasurer, do you really have to campaign on tough issues? Not really. Gov. Blagojevich has already put a shot across the bow, with the Cellini hotel loan deal that she agreed to, allowing the Illinois taxpayers to foot the bill for a privately-owned hotel. Peter Fitzgerald has brought this up in the past, now that JBT is running for Governor, watch for it to be front page news.
Second, just because there are multiple conservatives in the race, doesn’t mean conservative voters will split their vote. The big worry for JBT is that she’s not the only moderate in the race. With Gidwitz staying in, she now has to share the small (18-25%) moderate base with him. Not a recipe for victory. Oberweis will have some residual voters from his great name ID, but conservatives will be reluctant to back him, given his comments and actions in his last two campaigns. With the Rauschenberger/Gidwitz deal, Bill Brady becomes the conservative’s white knight.
Third, with JBT as the nominee, the ethics issue is off the table. She has had a federal investigation in her office which has yet to be closed by Patrick Fitzgerald. If the GOP can’t use ethics as a major issue, as they have in the past (see Thompson and Edgar), Blagojevich wins another four year term. She won’t be able to draw many issue contrasts, as JBT and Blagojevich aren’t that different, though Topinka may be slightly more fiscally conservative.
Finally, she is going to have a tough time being on the defensive throughout the entire campaign. Not only will she be taking her knocks from conservatives, moderate and liberal groups have already started attacking her for not being liberal enough. When she’s being attacked by both sides, where is her base?
The Gidwitz/Rauschenberger deal was the best thing that could happen for Bill Brady and the worst thing that could happen for Judy Baar Topinka.
Comment by The Shadow Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:27 am
So what’s the big deal? Gidwitz and Rauschenburg? Two nobodies running together? WOW! That means they will get about 15% of the voters instead of each getting 7%.
Talk talk talk - this is a whole lot of nothing.
Gidwitz has spent millions to remain at the bottom of the barrel. Rauschenburg has the charisma of a tomato. Together they will be two duds.
Republicans want to win. They will vote for Judy come hell or high water.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:43 am
I hate to ruin everyones day but the political landscape you see today will not be remembered tomorrow.In other words it’s a long time till election.
Comment by downstate Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:46 am
CEA 9:26 You’re nuts. Somebody answers the phone at her state office, so there’s at least one person doing real work.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:47 am
Hail Mary like you said Rich. Gidwitz will still end with 10% and Rauschy might make it close, but will lose too. And when its over Gidwitz will be $20M poorer and his consultants richer and Rauschenberger will be the most newspaper endorsed candidate to never win.
Rich - I like the new site, but the font is a little annoying.
Comment by Goodbye Napolean Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:50 am
Nice try, Anon 9:47. You must be a JBT state worker, but I know better. Just because someone answers the phone, that doesn’t mean that they are at the office and doing a job. The line could be forwarded, probably to her campaign office.
We know about all her state workers thanks to Cathy Santos and Doug Ibendahl and the affidavit they sent to Patrick Fitzgerald. The gig is up. Cathy and Doug have really done a service by alerting us to this abuse. And Patrick Fitzgerald is about to indict Topinka just as soon as he finishes indicting and trying Dick Cheney for the Libby leak. We all know it.
I am not nuts. Have you seen how many cars there are in Riverside? She must have every state employee, including Jesse White’s folks, and John Stroger’s family, parking around that headquarters. You can’t get a parking spot. And don’t blame it on the bank, restuarant or apartment complex. They were only put there to cover all the illegal state activity.
On to victory in March!
Comment by Conservative Expert Analyst Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:59 am
John Kass says that Rauschy will resign if he wins and Gidwitz doesn’t. I think he should save the guy’s money and just quit now.
“I won’t serve on any administration but Ron’s. If someone else wins the Republican primary and I win the primary for lieutenant governor, I’ll resign.”
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:02 am
This is JBT’s nomination to lose. It will take a huge fiasco for primary voters to look elsewhere than their three-time statewide winner.
Even consider for a moment a scandal or embarrassing revelation for her, it is going to have to be really big to bounce her out. Why?
Because the Ryan/Keyes US Senate race showed what happens when your winning candidate gets plowed by scandal and you bail on them. Republicans learned an ugly lesson. You back your candidates, even when the going gets rough. The only way to have salvaged dumping Ryan would have been to get a veteran pol like Edgar or Thompson to step in, a-la-NJ Lautenburg, or a-la-MN Mondale.
I highly doubt that Republicans are going to let just any JBT revelation during the 2006 campaign to let them repeat this tragedy.
So, in my opinion, due to this “Ryan innoculation”, any leading statewide candidate is going to get the benefit of a doubt during this campaign.
This benefits JBT, and can benefit Rauschenburger if he wins as Lt. Governor, which by the way is how the primary is going to turn out.
It going to be Judy and Steve in 2006; Ms. Colorful and Mr. Dull.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:14 am
Dont think for a minute that the FBI is done with Topinka.
All her campaign announcements last week were staffed by her state workers!
Is this sending the right message? Topinka acts like a reformer, but uses her state staff to run her political events?
Now, maybe they took time off because this was a high profile event. But if they took time off who is running the Treasurer’s Office? Is this an appropriate event to take a day off?
I also heard that her top level staff arent showing up for work and no one knows where they are. Take a guess….
You would have thought she would have learned her lesson.
Comment by JBT = FBI Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:25 am
Yes, 10:25, there has been all kinds of follow-up by the feds to the Santos confession. They have boxes and boxes of proof, and I’ve heard this is their top priority in the Chicago office. They keep it up, and the feds get vanloads of more proof. Some people never learn.
Just wait until after Dick Cheney is indicted. It’s obvious to all but the unwilling.
Comment by Conservative Expert Analyst Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:45 am
To those who believe that JBT is doomed, don’t forget that if Blago does not get a serious primary challenge, then there will be enough crossovers to put her over the top. Much as the conservatives dislike her, she does appeal to moderate voters, especially those who are really turned off by the faux reformer we now have in office.
Comment by Bluefish Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:50 am
Could it be that JBT’s staffers took time off??
Comment by takethehighroad Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:04 am
Democrats are not going to cross over and vote in the Republican primary. Yes, many Dems are disenchanted with Blago, but I can’t see them racing to vote Republican especially when it means not being able to prop up Dan Hynes, Jesse White and Lisa Madigan.
No one is going to drop out, and that’s a problem. Oberweis is more concerned about himself and his company than he is about the state, and Bill Brady is so attention-starved that he’s willing to stay in the race even if he barely breaks 10%. Brady may be a future Congressman or state treasurer but I don’t see him as a governor or senator.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:06 am
Its hard for me to believe that this is really going to help gidwitz much. He’s numbers after spending so much money are pathetic. His team just doesn’t have their act together. I do think this leaves an opening for Oberweis and/or Brady. With Oberweis already significantly the “conservative” leader, maybe he’ll be able to do something with this gift?
Comment by Redfish Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:10 am
Team Sleep - when did Hynes, White and Madigan get primary opponents? And don’t tell me people are going to come out in droves for either the downstate nobody or the rich Greek kid in the Treasurer race. Underestimating how much Blago has ticked off moderate Dems is a big mistake.
Comment by Bluefish Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:11 am
I am deeply disappointed in Blago and I jokingly say that I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one. I will vote in the next primary and general election; however, I WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM AGAIN. But read it before on this blog before and I agree that our Governor WILL BUY ANOTHER ELECTION FOR $14 MILLION, or however much money it takes. He is resourceful enough to come up with any amount of money it will take. He’s going to get in office again. The voters have too short of a memory and they will be swayed by everything he has to say. People will remember the last two weeks of whatever spin/crap he puts on/in the media. It makes absolutely no difference who runs against him. It makes no difference how many requests for information Patrick Fitzgerald puts forth. It makes no difference how much mudslinging occurs or who slings it. It makes no difference how many screwups his kiddie kabinet makes. And isn’t that the sorry, sad, pitiful state of politics in Illinois. You know who we have to blame for all of this - OURSELVES. The only way we are going to get rid of Blago is for Patrick Fitzgerald to drag him out of office in handcuffs. Cynical - you bet I am. I’ve lived in Illinois all my life and nothing ever changes here regarding politics. It’s dirty dirty dirty. Always has been and always will be because WE don’t have the guts to hold our politicians feet to the fire and DEMAND change.
Comment by Yellow puppy democrat Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:22 am
I’m trying to think how Kjellander is going to become a big deal in the election since he has courted both parties. Wasn’t he involved in some kind of bond selling issue with GRod and some retirement system? So does that neutralize him as a debatable issue? I suppose my lack of being able to see through this is why I’m not a political consultant, nor do I desire to be one.
Comment by LittleEgypt Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:41 am
Team Sleep you are WRONG! I’m a lifelong Democrat. . . and I will take an R ballot in the primary for the first time in my life, unless there’s some real hope of taking Blago out in the primary. Bluefish is right–don’t underestimate how much Blago has ticked off moderate dems–especially downstate dems. There are a LOT of Dems thinking like I do–Blago has embarassed our party, and is ruining the State of Illinois. We are not going to vote for him again. Now, if you R’s are smart, you’ll nominate JBT. I can vote for her,or maybe even Gidwitz, but not the right-wing loonies. I’d hate to stay home on election day. Surely Illinois can do better than His Hairness vs. RightWing Loonies?!!
Comment by CrossOver Dem Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:42 am
Brady is at 3%, Rauschy was at 6%. How do you get the undecided if you have no money???
Brady does not belong in this race if he wants change; then again he has never called for change has he?
He would have gotten out if Edgar entered, he will not call for Kejellander to resign. Where is the change? Andy McKenna and the combine want Brady to stay in now. Will he do the bidding of the combine or will he do what is best for the party? Now is the chance for the change we have worked so hard for for the last 10 years.
IF YOU HAVE NO MONEY YOU HAVE NO CHANCE TO WIN!
Senator Brady it is time to choose.
Comment by Devildog Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 11:59 am
Conservative Analyst, JBT = FBI, etc. (assuming you are more than one person, and not just a Disgruntled Employee):
Your comments about the FBI and Topinka are as off base as the “Santos affidavit.” It’s been three years with nary a peep, other than pure, unadulterated smears in forums like this. FBI investigations never close, they just fade away.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 12:19 pm
Judy will drop out. This dries up fundraising for her.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 12:21 pm
Oberweis is too selfish to get out and Brady is too stupid. Gidwitz must think he is a nice guy and needs Rauschenhateful.
But, as long as our state campaigner, oops, I mean governor, is on the November ticket, any of those guys could win.
Comment by Rele Tahrd Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 12:53 pm
Brady could let Judy’s scandals (if there are any) and Obie’s pending stupid comments + retractions take care of them for him.. All he has to do is be patient and ride out the storm. How is Rauschie hateful? Please!
As for the Rauschie/Gidwitz team, this does prove my prediction kind of true. I said Steve should sponsor a gay marriage proposal in the senate, have the gov sign it and then marry Jack Ryan. If you substitute Gidwitz for Ryan, I am pretty close to being right on target!
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:06 pm
Jim Oberweis will stay in as long as Jack Roeser and his Family Taxpayer Network continue to support him. If Mr. Roeser backs away from continuing to support Jim Oberweis, then Jim will know to throw in the cards. Brady is a good guy that unless he pairs up with JBT or Oberweis, he will not continue to hit his head against the proverbial brick wall. It will boil down to JBT & ? versus Gidwitz & Rauschenberger. Either of these two combinations is adequate enough to displace Blagojevich. There are enough dissatisfied Democrats this time that they will simply choose “not to cast their vote” rather than vote for Blago or a GOP contender. The end result will be the election of Gidwitz or JBT. Gidwitz fate will be decided by his campaign manager being savvy enough to market him as a “moderate” with a conservative fiscal streak.The state’s terrible financial situation is what the key topic will be that determines who gets elected. Rauschenberger will score points with the voters on that topic.
Comment by Beowulf Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:07 pm
How many races are contested? Madigan will cream any opponent and Turdbin and Obama are not up. Unless there is a real dem opponent (bye-bye Paul Vallas), many will cross over and vote for Giddy or Judy, probably Judy. Is Roland Burris available for a run?
Comment by Fins Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:09 pm
No way will either Brady or Obie drop out. Brady is not up for reelection and Obie has nothing better to do. Besides… this seems like the race where Brady makes a name for himself and then tries to win in four years… or something like that. Obie, he just really wants to be elected to something, so goodluck. This is one republican vote he will never see…
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:12 pm
Steve Rauschenberger, in speaking with Ron Gidwitz at a 1:00 press conference at the State Capitol, says there were three things that made him decide to run for Lt. Gov.
1. The speech he gave to the Illinois Jobs group last Friday
2. The State Party meeting that tried to narrow the field
3. Driving 1100 miles on Saturday and Sunday.
Steve told the press that he called Gidwitz on Sunday to finalize the partnership.
Steve also said he is “all out endorsing Ron Gidwitz.”
If Gidwitz does not win, Steve will “give the winning nominee the Lt. Gov candidate they want.”
Comment by BREAKING NEWS Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:18 pm
UPDATE:
Gidwitz notes that if he wins, and Rauschenberger does not that “steve will have a place in my administration.”
Comment by BREAKING NEWS Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:21 pm
Grand Old Partisan - I don’t think this is the first time we’ve agreed, and I hope it’s not the last.
Anyone who says that one fewer “Conservative” candidate in this race and a prop for the other moderate (I actually laughed at the poster who described the Gidwitz-Rauschenberger team as two one-legged men, holding each other up) helps Topinka is definitely earning their “Citizens for Topinka” paycheck today.
Topinka’s numbers are okay now, based solely on name recognition, but where do you think they’ll be when Oberweis and Brady start IDing anti-choice women over the age of 40 and bombarding them with mail? When PersonalPAC starts mailing to its tens of thousands of pro-choice Republicans and telling them that Gidwitz is pro-choice and Topinka supports dangerous restrictions? When downstate chairmen start circulating pics of Topinka in the Pride Parade? Down around 24%.
Yes, grassroots Republicans want to beat blagojevich, but Rod’s poll numbers are so bad now, as Brady’s poll showed, that every candidate is within striking distance. And ideology, not electability, is the key decisionmaker for the GOP core, as their suicidal embrace of Alan Keyes showed. They won’t hesitate to vote for Oberweis or Brady, but my gut tells me that Oberweis has worn out his welcome.
Finally, on the other end of the spectrum, let’s not forget the moderate GOP engine that elected the likes of Ryan, Edgar and Thompson no longer exists. It died with Licenses for Bribes and the end of their vast patronage army. The loss of patronage volunteers, not the public scandal, is the reason Republicans could not run a competitive race in 2002 — with the exception of Topinka, of course, who only won with the support of Rush, a handful of defecting labor unions, and key Democratic kingmakers.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:33 pm
“steve will have a place in my administration,”
Deputy Governor for Member Initiatives, Tobacco Procurement and Euphamisms
Comment by Mike's Used Sport's Section Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 1:58 pm
The most important question is what happens to Dan Proft and Co? Is he banished to Cicero?
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:06 pm
I’m not saying the Dems won’t switch over but I am saying that Dems won’t switch over as much as originally expected. Let’s also see what happens in the first 2 1/2 months of the 2006 Spring Session…if Blago and his campaign co-chairs do something to right the ship then he might help repair his image. I also can’t see too many southern Illinois Dems voting for a guy like Oberweis or a rich Chicagoan like Gidwitz. Not only is Gidwitz pro-choice but he is a country club Republican who has not really done much to impress the Southern Illinois crowd. I’ve seen him at fundraisers and he doesn’t play well to regular folks like farmers and factory workers.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:16 pm
“When PersonalPAC starts mailing to its tens of thousands of pro-choice Republicans and telling them that Gidwitz is pro-choice and Topinka supports dangerous restrictions?”
Yellow Dog, you just don’t get it.
Parental notification is not a dangerous restriction. Support for it, even in Illinois is about 70-30.
Personal PAC and Rod are on the fringes on that issue.
Gidwitz and JBT are for parental notification.
What the heck are you talking about?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:29 pm
Rich,
Since the first day to file is coming up, how about a question of the day regarding predictions/inside scoop, of who’s got primary challenges and odds in state lege races.
Comment by Anon-mouse Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 2:35 pm
When this GOP primary gets all heated up, any crossover Democrats (if they exist) will realize that Rod ain’t all that bad.
The GOP primary is going to be an absolute circus.
Go Rod!
Thank you, thank you very much.
Comment by Bobby Hicks Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 5:51 pm
I would rather be in Rauschy’s position of having to get 5,000 signatures over JBT having to go out and raise $3 mil to play in sandbox with Ron G and Ob. Especially if those long swirling rumors of the G-men looking at her operation have any truth to them.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 6:38 pm
Reality check. Rauschenberger is completely out of ALL races as Gidwitz has and never will be in contention. Brady is a non-player and may as well drop out. Obie is an extremist and is spoke of only because he’s an extremist.
JBT will win the primary with no problem. Discussing any other outcome is a ridiculous waste of time.
The governor is in big trouble as he and his greatly underestimate people’s visceral distaste of the way he operates regardless of their political leanings. He has lost the middle, and therefore, the game.
Comment by El Conquistador Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 9:56 pm
“When Personal PAC starts mailing to its tens of thousands of pro-choice Republicans and telling them that Gidwitz is pro-choice and Topinka supports dangerous restrictions?â€
Yellow Dog, you just don’t get it.
Parental notification is not a dangerous restriction. Support for it, even in Illinois is about 70-30.
Personal PAC and Rod are on the fringes on that issue.
Gidwitz and JBT are for parental notification.
What the heck are you talking about?
Personal PAC doesn’t think Topinka is not pro-choice enough. They are just saying she isn’t so the media can report it to deceive unaware pro-life voters into thinking she must be pro-life.
Comment by run4cvrlib Wednesday, Dec 7, 05 @ 10:30 pm
I feel so terribly sick today over this. Rauschenberger has done nothing but help himself while hurting his party and any chance to get Blago out of office. What the h**l is Rauschenberger going to do when Topinka wins the primary? He’ll be on record then by resigning as saying that he prefers Blago to Topinka.
Good going, Dan Proft! Now we’re going to have 4 more years of an inept idiot. Thank you very much.
Comment by Feeling Ill Thursday, Dec 8, 05 @ 1:01 am
John Kass (12-8 article), in a few short paragraphs, has accurately portrayed what can be expected from Sen. Brady.
Comment by anon Thursday, Dec 8, 05 @ 9:37 am