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There are lots of rumors about how much money Edwin Eisendrath will spend in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. I talked to him about it yesterday and he flatly refused to comment.
How much do you think it will take to defeat Gov. Blagojevich in the primary? Is there any amount? What else will Eisendrath have to do to win?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:59 am
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If money is the only consideration and the governor is willing to spend his war chest, then I think no amount of cash will change things here in Illinois.
However, if he keeps his ratings in the toilet and his staff keeps doing dumb and vendictive things to both the employees of the citizens of the state and to his opponents, he’s in serious trouble. That’s not even counting the Patrick Fitzgerald factor.
Eisendrath will have to out-cash him AND make his arguments against the governor’s record while not resorting to a Repub. vs. Democrat campaign. I think the majority of the voters in this state knows that, when it comes to corruption and delivery on promises based on what’s good for the state, neither side can be trusted to do what’s right. He needs to point out what has been done wrong for the citizens of Illinois across the board and the bankruptcy of state coffers, stressing that while pie-in-the-sky new programs, which may appear to be good ideas and sound great, there are NO FUNDS TO PAY FOR THEM. Eisendrath should also point out that if these new “initiatives” were being planned for the good of the people, why does the literature touting them contain the governor’s name an obscene number of times. A really concerned public servant would forgot the ego trip.
Comment by Ex-Newfie Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:11 am
I think each scandal on Blago will be x number of dollars to Eisendrath.
Comment by WAY DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:13 am
OOPS, that’s “forego”, not “forgot” in the last line.
Comment by Ex-Newfie Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:17 am
Pretty interesting question…the book “Freakanomics” discussed the phenomenon of campaign cash tied to chances of winning. The premise of that chapter was that candidates raise more cash who are viewed as likely to win, but that money itself is not an indicator. Thus, self-funded candidates might have money, but that doesn’t demonstrate actual support (witness the Blair Hull campaign). Of course Rod has raised money - as an incumbent from people and companies that wanted something from the Governor. His money at this point, as distinguished from when he was running and raised so much cash, is not an indicator of actual support from the public. It’s too early to tell if Eisendrath’s money can seed support (as Hull’s actually originally did). But Blago is no Obama, and Eisendrath can also easily rely on the free press and the Republicans to paint an ugly picture of the incumbent. A few million can go a long way under these conditions.
Comment by Phocion Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:28 am
I’m not sure how much money it will take in the primary for Eisendrath. What it will take is him sticking to what matters. Substance and honesty in government. He needs to stick to what matters to the citizens of the state. Finding out what the concerns are of the Dem’s, distinguishing himself from Blago, showing how he will change for the better what Blago “broke” in the system, and find a way to tell people why anyone should trust him after the fiasco we’ve had the past three years that said the same thing.
He’ll also have to get support from everyday people (i.e., not union members, not state employees) outside of Chicago, which will be difficult, but can be done. Personal thought here - I think most unions are going to be leery of supporting anyone this time around.
Comment by Tessa Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:59 am
Get a different haircut and learn some Elvis songs.
Bring it on!
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:09 am
Eisendrath said a few weeks ago that he won’t self-fund or rely on family money, but that he thinks he can raise $3-6 million. Now he seems more equivocal. My guess is that he is finding that the potential donors he has approached want to know how much of his own money he is going to put in. I don’t know why he won’t give a number. Typically candidates who are going to put in big bucks are very open about it, because it shows they are going to be viable, which helps a lot with outside fundraising. In Eisendrath’s case you would think that would be especially true, because he’s starting so late that people are doubting his viability. One possibility is that he isn’t going self-fund, but he doesn’t want to advertise that any more, because hi is finding that donors won’t pony up unless he puts enough in himself to show he’s viable. The thing about self-funding is that there’s a big difference between rich and really rich. There are a fair number of people who can afford to put in a million or so to jump start a statewide campaign, but very few who can really self-fund. Eisendrath’s stepfather is really rich, but what about Eisendrath himself? As the old song says, “Papa may have and Mama may have, but God bless the child who’s got his own.”
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:20 am
It roughly costs $600K a week for a full 1000 gross rating point statewide TV buy excluding the St. Louis Market. Edwin will need to start TV sometime mid to late January to get name id up. So I would have him buy 100,000 gross ranting points between than and the primary. That will give him enough to run dual track positive and negative messages. That is roughly $6 million on TV. Add $2 million for radio. $1 million for direct mail (maybe a little less because he is only sending to dem primary voters), and $1 million plus for staff, office, etc. So to really run it, its going to cost over $10 million to take him out. Anything less and he’s just jacking (hacking) around.
Comment by Political Hack Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:49 am
Hack,
Excellent post! I can’t figure out Eddie’s motivation. He blowing his chance for a cabinet post in the first Blagojevich administration in ‘09.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:57 am
The fact that he’s been getting his own signatures for his nominating petitions suggests to me that this will be more of a shoestring campaign than a gold-plated one. But we’ll know soon enough.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:16 am
I’m not sure about how much money Eisendrath will need but my hunch is the way GRod, Brad and crew have insulted about every democrat in the state I suspect he can do a lot more with a lot less. GRod’s millions will not buy him credibility and he already has name recognition. What happens if GRod’s campaign fund is indicted as was George Ryans? Does all that money get frozen in the bank at that time? That most likely will not happen before the primary but I’d say it is a sure thing before November 06. I’d day Eisendrath will have the necessary funding to run a top notch campaign. Democrats in the field are hungry for a viable candidate that speaks honestly to them. I’m a democrat (been involved at a lot of levels for 30 years) and about the only people I know who support GRod at this point are those he has given a job to and those who have a fat contract. The average Joe has a poor opinion of RGod and are looking for an alternative. Eisendrath will not need much money to get that vote. That all said, RGod is good on the campaign but now he has a different race to run. He has his work cut out for him. I believe there is enough dissatisfaction with him that he can be beat. If Eisendrath’s campaign starts to catch fire he will be hard to stop. I’m also seeing a grass roots effort by party regulars that I have not seen in many years. They feel misled by GRod and his inability to change the culture of corruption and “business as usual” After the holidays-look out!
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:36 am
he doesn’t need a lot of money. blagojevich will continue to get bad press, at no cost to eisendrath. the downstaters or just waiting for someone they can vote for and against blagojevich. you heard it hear first. topinka 53% blagojevich 45% others 2%
Comment by ron Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:40 am
Eisendrath will probably surprise all of us with the number of votes he will get. I know that there are many Democrats out there that are fed up with Blagojevich and that they are simply wanting another choice of a “quality” Democrat to cast their vote for. If Eisendrath can get the media to give him some free media exposure to the voters in the state, I feel that a mediocre grass roots effort will carry him to the top. No Democrat really wants to vote for Topinka. They will only do so if Blagojevich is the only choice.
Comment by Beowulf Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:50 am
I live in near-suburban Cook, and I have no idea what Eisendrath’s program is, although I have the vague impression that he represents upper middle class white liberals from Chicago’s Lakeshore and perhaps lakefront suburbs. A new generation of the reformers who supported people like Dick Simpson back in the early 70’s when I moved here.
There aren’t enough of them to matter vote-wise, especially as minorities, blacks and Latinos, an increasingly large percentage of voters, will vote for the jobs and contracts that Blago has to give them….they are no more interested in reform that Edgar and Ryan’s largely white cronies were.
So, he can’t win. The question is, can he scare Blago (and even Topinka) enough to force them
to make some actual reforms.
Unlikely. Corruption is part of the political wallpaper in Illinois, and voters don’t even notice it when they observe it daily.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:28 am
Let’s go back a few years to the Alan Dixon, Al Hofeld, Carol Mosley Braun primary for U.S. Senator. Hofeld thought he could buy an election and outspent the other two. What he ended up doing though was splitting the vote so horribly in the primary that the two men lost and Carol M-B waltzed on by them. I can’t think of who the GOP put up in that election but at the time Dixon was doing a good job and most people thought he would get back in. Strange things can happen in politics with AND without money. I’d be interested in yet a third person entering the Dem primary and see who comes out on top. It might be the lesser known to do so. I’ve said it before and will say it again. $14 WILL BUY AN ELECTION. What it won’t do is buy the guarantee of victory each and every time. You still have to run on your record and too many times I’ve seen a poor record outlast the money, which is never good for the incumbent.
Comment by LittleEgypt Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:45 am
Edwin will need to spend $2 million or so real quick to explain to Illioisans why they need to replace a Chicago alderman’s son-in-law with an exChicago Aldreman and who he is.
Just being another one of the disappointed masses is not enough.
He will also need to get above the noise level generated by the slugfest between AccordianGal, Chopper Jim, marcia’sbrother and who ever their running mates might at any given hour. l
and re
Comment by reddbyrd Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:49 am
Who is Edwin Eisendrath?
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:27 am
Where the heck is “near-suburban Cook County?”
Comment by LG Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:36 am
I don’t know Eisendrath, but if he goes downstate (and I mean Charleston, Marion, East St. Louis, Robinson, etc.) and can drum up some County Chairs willing to break ranks, he can will the primary with less than $5M.
Comment by shelbyville Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:41 am
Other than speculation…what evidence does anyone have that Eisendrath has any personal wealth?
Comment by Mandy Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:13 am
Eisendrath has no chance of winning. Too many things going against him: no name recognition, no organization, no issues, not enough time. Simply being Not-Rod isn’t sufficient.
What he can do is give Blago a real scare. If he pumps in $2 million of his own money, courts downstate party chairs, organizes university communities, and runs 1 or 2 smart/creative/hard-hitting ads, and develops a credible platform, I think he can surprise people by getting up to 35% of the vote.
What no one has said yet is that this may actually end up helping the governor in the end. Having a primary opponent will force him to practice defending his record and solidify his base. Also, this may limit disgruntled Dems from crossing over and voting in the GOP primary for Topinka (votes she needs), giving the nod to Brady or Milkman, two opponents Rod would crush in November.
Comment by Charlie Murphy Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:19 am
1. Rod already has plenty of practice defending his record;
2. Dems are not going to cross over in big numbers and vote for Judy anyway.
Comment by Observing Democrat Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:24 am
No county chairman is going to leave Blagojevich for Edwin Eisendrath. It is political suicide. Why would you support a guy that is going to lose? All Edwin E. seems to know is that Rod=Bad, Me=Good. He didnt impress anyone during his trip down to Southern IL last weekend and is being laughed at this week because he came across so unprofesional. When asked what he believed in or what his agenda was, he had no idea. He couldnt even make something up.
No one is worried about Edwin. Eisendrath will be a pesky mosquito for two months to Blagojevich. It is a shame that a fellow Democrat has to do this… We are not the Republicans.
Comment by Red Mosquito Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:24 am
Looks like the Blago people are seeding this blog with anti-Eisendrath rhetoric. Look, there’s a potential indictment of a sitting Governor. Don’t under-estimate how this can just annihilate a campaign. And I’m not talking about an indictment, just the threat of one. Blago will be lucky to get through the primary. I think Mell will bring a huge amount of forces against him AND the black community doesn’t like him.
Comment by Jenny Kustra Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:24 am
If Eisendrath gives press interviews from his couch and spends no money he’ll get 30% of the primary vote and win at least a few downstate counties, including Sangamon.
We’re talking about an incumbent Governor who only gets about a 50% approval rating among members of his own party. It will only take $5 million to tip the balance.
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:29 am
Who says Eisendrath has 2 million dollars of his own money? Where did he make this money, working for some local college?
Comment by Mandy Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:34 am
Jenny is right, forget about counting dollars, count the indictments. Don’t forget guys, it wasn’t Rod’s bank account that was wearing a WIRE, it was somebody VERY close to him.
That having been said, he may still win the primary but if he does so with anything less than a BIG margin, he is going to be looking like one very vulnerable guy going into the general.
Comment by Wigand Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:40 am
And yes, EE has his own money, and his family is also prepared to step in and assist.
Comment by Wigand Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:41 am
At least $5 million to make a decent showing and $1-$2 million needs to be from his own bank account. He won’t need more than $8 mill to take this race because Rod will continue to implode. BTW: Rod doesn’t want to spend more than $8-10 mill in the primary, so $5 mill form Edwin is equal to that.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:51 am
It is a good question. How did he make his money? Did he inherit it? Do voters care how candidates got their wealth? Every past rich Illinois candidate I can think of made their own $$$$$
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:53 am
Since Eisendrath is wealthy, here’s what he should do:
1. Travel the state and beat up Blago in areas that our guv is vulnerable. This includes the Metro East, Peoria, Chambana, Carbondale, Mt. Vernon, the Quads and Springfield.
2. Advertise in those aforementioned areas, but don’t limit yourself to TV and be sure to expand into print and radio.
3. Don’t fight Blago in Chicago. Chicago is seemingly going to vote for Blago anyway. Spending time in my aforementioned areas will force Blago to spend lots of cash (especially in St. Louis) in areas that he performed well in 2001 and 2002.
4. Hire someone like Pete Giangreco (sp?) and make sure that person does what Pete does: avoid the issues and taunt the opponent. Pete will blow a gasket.
5. Use the internet and take a page from Howard Dean. Eisendrath can take advantage of people donating money over PayPal or an escrow account and use the internet as a tool for messaging and campaigning.
I may be a Republican, but Mr. Ed sounds pretty decent.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 12:03 pm
Forgot to mention this in my last post:
Eisendrath will need $5 million or so to compete and force Blago to spend quite a bit in the primary. St. Louis TV will be inundated next year with the U.S. Senate race in Missouri, so it will take more for Blago to run ads in St. Louis because KMOV, KSDK and KTVI will ratchet up the cost of TV ads. This could/should play into the primary cost.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 12:05 pm
There is no amount of money that can beat Blago. The only thing that could do it is if he is in jail on election day.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 12:37 pm
What are the actual chances of anyone beating the incumbent, whether it in the primary or the general election. Ok, if indicted, he’s done, but short of that he appears to have too much of everything to actually lose…except for substance. Anyone who lives in this state can no longer realistically put their faith in him.
He had the opportunity of a life time to make a real difference these past several years. In the end, the only difference that appears to have been made was imagined.
By the way, what ever happened to Lou Lang? Is it just not his time, or is this office simply not his destiny?
Comment by anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 2:09 pm
Did anyone attend the dem rally out at the fair this year? Blago has a good strategy, and whoever runs against him will be opening up a can of whoopa**. Not to mention, he has a very strong army behind him.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 2:13 pm
A lot of posters seem to be concerned about where Eisendrath’s money is coming from. Why aren’t we equally concerned about where Blago’s is coming from or Judy or Ron or the rest of them? We ought to be concerned about who is trying to buy our politicians.
Comment by LittleEgypt Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 2:44 pm
No amount of money will beat Blago in the primary. While he as dirty as it gets, he has paid dividends to the base enough for primary protection. Question is can a primary challenge keep enough chicago democrats from pulling republican tickets in hopes of impacting the republican primary?
Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 2:44 pm
I’m curious about something. I certainly understand why Rs hate everything about Blagojevich. And I get why reform Dems, like myself, are disappointed with his hiring and fundraising practices. What I don’t get is why some liberal Dems don’t at least give him credit for his policies like AllKids. I’m actually fairly moderate, yet I think that’s a good idea (though certtainly funding issues need to be addressed). A lot of the liberal press outside of Illinois (like the New York Times) are enthusiastic about it. Emanuel and Durbin just introduced the bill to nationalize the idea. It’s fine for Dems not to like Blago or even to vote for Topinka. But if you criticize every one of his policies just becaue they’re his, it hurts the ideas as well as the candidate. I think AllKids is a good idea, firmly rooted in the Democratic tradition. Let the Republicans attack it. But lets not undercut it ouselves. To turn a cliche on its head, don’t shoot the message just because you don’t like the messenger.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 2:59 pm
I meant close-in suburban Cook…that is, suburbs that border or are close to the city limits.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 3:08 pm
Good points-
Observing Democrat - Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:24 am:
1. Rod already has plenty of practice defending his record;
2. Dems are not going to cross over in big numbers and vote for Judy anyway.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 3:10 pm
I’m no big fan of liberalism, but at this stage I think I’d accept a reform minded Democrat like Eisendrath over a Republican who is in the tank for political corruption. Don’t underestimate the nastiness of Blagojevich’s political supporters in the Deep South, if the campaign they ran against Vallas down there in 2002 is any indication, it’s going to be ugly.
Comment by Fraydog Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 3:20 pm
If Blago has an army behind him it is a thin one that will run south at the first chance. To know Rod is to dislike him because it’s always all about him. He’s a phony and the public knows it. He thinks short-term — what will give him the most political benefit. He’s the opposite of a leader. I’d respect his All Kids program more if he were honest about the finances … and admitted he might need to raise the state income tax to pay for it. But that will be someone else’s problem. Edwin is smarter than Rod and 100% more sincere. Voters get it.
Comment by Buddy Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 3:40 pm
Rod will win, end of story!
Don’t fool yourself, he does have an army of supporters. We can flood precincts from Chicago to Anna at the drop of a hat.
Talk your smack, in the end, you’ll see.
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:11 pm
B-Hicks
As you guys like to say “bring it on” I’ll be watching your army down around Southern Illinois trying to explain Opportunity I-Loan and all the hack hiring RGod has done. It will be funny and bring your big checkbook along, you all are going to get taken to the bank in this race. An incumbent first term democrat governor after 28 years of republican rule should not even have an opponent. That speaks volumes to old hard line democrats like me. RGod is as phony as a 3 dollar bill and everyone down here knows it. By the way a lot of sports minded people are waiting on you guys too so they can have you explain all this gun control legislation that you all supported. It might be good for you up there but it will be all bad down here. So hurry up, bring your army on down, but in keeping with your own ideology, leave your arms up north. I have not been this excited about a primary in decades!
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:35 pm
B HICKS there was a sampling of how Blago will be treated down south when he went to shake a farmers hand at the state fair and they walked away.Down here your word is as good as a signed contract and we don’t have time for liars.
Comment by WAY DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:44 pm
To counter the lack of money a candidate needs to have a strong grassroots organization. Conversely, more money is necessary to address the lack of an organization. Blago has both money and organization. Not only will Eisendrath have to spend at levels close to what Blago is prepared to spend, he will have demonstrate that he can effectively win the governorship. Otherwise, he will not convince hardcore Democrats to abandon Blago.
While I hate to admit it, Eisendrath will not be successful. I still hopes he runs. Despite all the whistling in the dark predictions that a primary will help Blago. I don’t agree and I would like him to get a little bloodied before the general election.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:50 pm
Yes Mr. Powell, we all know that Southern Illinois is the determining factor in all Illinois elections. I sure hate hearing that you’re pissed off at Rod.
Please, take it easy on us.
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 4:56 pm
Eisdendrath dough could come family, and his step family …Lewis and Susan Manilow (apparently not related to Barry so don’t start drooling about a fundraising concert)have cut loose with about 60K according state board records
Edwin has not sprinkled too many coins around
$zero on state candidates and a few K on presidentials
Doesn’t look like a big self funder which will not endear him to the TV stations.
Comment by Mr. ANON Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 5:09 pm
I’m not sure what army of supporters there will be for the Gov this time around, because I don’t believe that one big group will be out walking for him. Wait until January and see.
Comment by Tessa Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 5:10 pm
Everyone that posts in this blog are savvy when it comes to politics but what everyone is forgetting is that one: Polls DO NOT vote. two: Mr. Joe Six-pack tends to vote for the candidate that has name recognition, hence the advantage of being an incumbent.
Therefore this Eisenwho guy has his work cut out and he needed to start yesterday if he is seriously considering running. Will he win? I highghly doubt that.
So all the downstaters, Chicagoans, and Illinoians need to look at the issues and truly implement a wise judgement that is not influenced by the media (they are in the business industry so in their eyes headlines sell and they will spin a story however they want it), polls, blogs, neighbors. In the general if topinka makes it out, then the voters will choose between the best candidate they feel is the best candidate despite what bloggers ‘predict’.
Comment by Silas Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 5:40 pm
Did someone above actually write that Eisendrath will “do more with less”? Where, oh where, have I seen/heard that before?
The media will keep Eisendrath’s name visible for free. He could run a Steve Baer campaign and just hang out at the capitol press office and distribute press releases every day. I doubt he will beat Blah-Blah. But he certainly can win and when the numbers inevitably tighten up, the Giangreco crowd will unleash a savage burst of negative campaigning. It will be intersting to see how that plays So Illinois.
Comment by Rele Tahrd Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 6:31 pm
Paul, there is still an army in southern Il, just alot of the unhappy are overly vocal.Don’t count GRod out just yet. The amount of money “Double E” would have to spend just to get decent name ID’s would make the St.Louis and paducah markets sickening to watch.
Comment by caveinrocker Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:24 pm
B Hicks..you do remeber that it was southern illinois that carried rod in the 02 primary against vallas, right? it won’t be the same in the 06′ elections. But to answer the question, i feel the eisendrath will spend 3-5 million in the primary…he might not win but it will be closer then you think.
Comment by scoot Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 7:34 pm
B Hicks:
Do you study history? Check where RGod won his primary 4 years ago. It was in Southern Illinois and the Metro East area. He ran real bad in Chicago. I don’t know how he will run up there this time but he is in serious trouble down here. Nothing personal, he has just let us all down.
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:55 pm
Anon 2:59 - surely you aren’t giving the New York Times much credibility now are you? Emanuel and Durbin introducing a bill - Hello, it’s politics. The AllKids message is flawed. Where’s the money coming from? Number crunching is fine but the proof will be when the program gets up and running and there’s no money to pay the vendors - just like what’s happening now. Do you really think that doctors, pharmacies and hospitals are going to be enthusiastic about taking new patients when they are the ones who will incur the vast majority of the debt (from the State not paying the bills). I don’t care what party tries to get into this cardboard boat. It ain’t gonna float.
B Hicks - I hate to admit it but you’re correct. That is unless Southern Illinois understands that they ARE a big voting block and can influence this election. $14 million CAN buy an election but will it? ARod still has to answer for a lot of double talking he has done and I can tell you that a lot of us in Southern Illinois may have been born at night but it wasn’t last night. What we still strongly believe in is integrity and a person’s word. When you’ve lost our trust, you’ve lost everything and you don’t get our trust back - EVER.
Comment by LittleEgypt Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 8:55 pm
Why do so many think Double E can’t win. Blago’s number suck, African Americans in Chicago are under 60 on the guy. Southern Illinois is going to be a bear to organize since most of those County chairs didn’t get squat and the public thinks Rod is a lying SOB. He gets no traction with anyone. My only concern about Double E is from talking to “hacks”, he wants to run his own show and thinks he knows everything. That, as any good campaign hack will tell you, spells disaster. But for us retired hackers, it spells fun,fun,fun.
Comment by Political Hack Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:04 pm
Silas:
I can only speak for the county where I live in the deep south but it is one of the largest democratic counties in Southern Illinois. RGod is in bad trouble here even with Joe 6-pack who happens to love to hunt, fish, and vote! He carried this county last time but nobody trusts him down here. His credibility is zero and he keeps stepping on it. I don’t count him out but he is for sure on the canvas here. He still has time to get up and get back in the race but he has some serious butt kissing to do. If nothing else it will force him to pay attention to an area he has ignored after it was so good to him 4 years ago.
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:07 pm
Actions speak louder than words. The emporer is still naked riding in a speed car through the open Ipass lanes.
Comment by JustdoitED Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:10 pm
B Hicks
One more thing, I’ll bet RGod and his crew will be acting as if Southern Illinois is the determining factor. We love it down here when they pay attention to us!
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:14 pm
AND THEN THERE IS ALL THEM STATE WORKERS ,THIER FAMILY AND FRIENDS AND WE WANT TO GET A GUY THAT HAS HIT US WITH HIS BEST SHOT.HEY IT’S OUR TURN NOW.DON’T TELL ME THAT 4% IS GOING TO SWING A BUNCH OF VOTES AND THE UNION PEOPLE IN THE TRENCHES REALLY WANT THIS GUY.DON’T BELIVE ME ASK ANY DOC ,IDNR,DCFS OR ANY OTHER AGENCY PEOPLE.HEY B HICKS HOW LONG HAVE YOU CAMPAIGNED FOR THIS LOSER.
Comment by WAY DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 9:39 pm
From a county that actually matters in the primary (There’s only 14 you have to win) we are going to kick down doors and get out the vote for the guv. So anyone who wants some of that….. You better come to play.
Comment by LaSalle Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:12 pm
OK LaSalle, it’s nite nite time. Tomorrow is another day for you to campaign. And I can assure you that I’m not the only one who is coming to play - just not for your guy. You better tell Blago to start practicing his pucker. Let the butt kissing begin.
Comment by LittleEgypt Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:37 pm
LaSalle:
Got my game face on, lets play ball! I don’t care what you all do but I can assure you that in this county RGod will have trouble carrying it. Can’t speak for anyone else and don’t believe in meddling outside my area so you take care of yours like you say you can and you all should be happy. See you at the game!
Comment by Paul Powell Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 10:51 pm
While I don’t think EE is likely to beat the egomaniac, I think it will be interesting to see what kind of numbers he gets. I spend a lot of time praying that either the guv or his campaign fund gets indicted before the election. It is unfortunate that his true colors didn’t shine through before the last primary - I think we’d be in a much better position as a state if Vallas had won.
Comment by cynically anonymous Wednesday, Dec 14, 05 @ 11:10 pm
Cynically:
I know how you feel. We democrats need to be concerned about this federal stuff. Anytime not one but at least two people put on a wire and wear it there is enough already there to indict. When the wires appear you can rest assured more people are now in the bag. We have a chance to run next fall with a clean candidate. If we stick with RGod and any indictments come down even if its just his committee, the whole ticket is in serious trouble on our side. Love the guv, hate the guv, I don’t care I am a realist and I can see disaster looming on the horizon if we stick with this guy. If you have a position or contract I understand your loyalty to the guy but don’t expect the rest of us good democrats to march lock step with you down that path. Again I point out that after 28 years of republican rule it is not a good thing when a first term democrat faces serious primary opposition. There is trouble in paradise when that happens. If so many people are happy with RGod then why is he facing a serious opponent now? Things are not good or we would not be where we are at. We should all be together but because we have elected some egomanic Chicago ward politican who cannot even get along with his own family, here we are spending valuable time and resources trying to right a wrong we all made 4 years ago.
Comment by Paul Powell Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 12:01 am
I dunno, I’m a lifelong dem born and raised in Chicago, and truly, I admit to you here, I’m seriously on the fence with my vote, torn between Judy and Eisendrath. Perhaps I am typical of the voters being courted by both. Like hell would I vote for Rod again. None of the other Repubs besides Judy hold any appeal for me.
As to that rally at the state fair this past summer: if he’s such a lock, why was the turnout so weak for his rally on the grounds, even after injecting a lot of Chicago staffers to swell the crowds, and why did he get a loud universal booing on the grandstand shortly aftewards, on a day when ostensibly the grounds would have been filled with dem supporters? I wuz there, I’m an old fart, and I have only heard one other governor ever get booed like that: George in his last year. No, I’m beginning to think Rod’s invincibility and popularity are both just wishful thinking, bluffing bravado and fairy dust - pure ballyhoo.
Judy and her people are very competent, based on the face to face dealings I’ve had with them over the years since she was a Senator in my district. A strong contrast to the inexperienced and bumbling carpetbaggers currently in the governor’s office. In terms of picking someone who can actually run the state like a “grown-up”, and choose to actually do so rather than take a three-year victory lap from the previous election, Topinka has a clear advantage.
That said, to me she’s a bit tainted from rubbing up against George and Pate all those years, as well as the many insiders like Cellini - I still burn thinking about the hotel loans issue, and feel the current talking points about that decision being “making the best of a bad situation” are a great attempt at revisionist history. So I respect Judy’s competency, but am not in love with her past. She may also be a crook, but at least if she is, she’s better at keeping it a secret than the current scandal-of-the week bumblers. She did get points with me for sticking to her guns against the far-right extremists of her party and the Keyes thing. Being rejected by those clowns is a badge of honor, ma’am, and I salute you for it. I think she is someone people can do business with, without needing “memos of understanding” in writing, for crying out loud.
Eisendrath appeals to me and probably others precisely for the same reasons Rod did the last time: unknown quantity, but not one of the old guard, outsider, talks a good reform line, press not mentioning any crime, philandering, or other bad stuff, we need to clear out the dead wood and start fresh, it’s been too long with one party in control, etc etc etc.
But being so freshly burned by Rod, I won’t gobble the bait so fast this time; I want to see debates, early, and lots of them, I want to see the new guy take on the governor toe to toe, see what he’s made of. Hear some actual plans and hear about what his priorities are. The governor will be afraid to debate Eisendrath, will dodge a debate as long as he can. Rod acts like/thinks that he’s a master of telegenics, a Great Communicator, but I find by observation once he runs out of the thin sheaf of rehearsed material and talking points, his ad-lib work just falls like a bomb. There’s nothing inside, past the smile, he’s an empty suit, he doesn’t really grasp the issue you’re discussing, more tellingly, he doesn’t give a um, fig about said issue, and worst of all you get the clear sense he doesn’t care if you know that. We really are nothing but cattle to him, is the impression I’ve formed after watching him for three years. Yeah, that’s harsh. But it’s heartfelt.
If Eisendrath wants my vote, he’s got to convince me he’s smarter and wiser. And soon. I need to feel the potential leader of my state is smarter than I am, or we are in trouble.
I do think Topinka needs a significant democratic crossover vote to succeed against the media buys an guaranteed negative ads. Eisendrath is the stopper for that leak of dem support: but only if he’s credible.
So, I got two devils I know and one that I don’t. One devil has a history of knowing her job and sticking to a deal, even if I don’t like the deal. Electing her would feel like submitting to an arranged marriage and hoping it works out as true love after the fact. The other Devil I know, and I can’t say anything good about. Not one. Honestly.
The third devil looks good for now, but is he for real? Money doesn’t mean as much to me as credibility. Show me who you are, mister-e.
Comment by Rail S. Plitter Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 12:41 am
To those who doubt that a sitting governor can be defeated in a primary I only want to throw out one name - Dan Walker.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 12:44 am
Paul Powell:
You must have been chowing on a cozy dog in the sheep barn when the Dem rally took place at the fair because that place was crammed–crammed.
All for the Governor? Maybe not. Still, it was packed, unlike the GOP rally the next day where they needed to bring in Susan Boone (Sangamon County Coroner)just to make sure everyone was alive.
Comment by Leopold Bloom Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 2:57 am
Leopold:
Did not attend the Springfield version but was in the grand stand on World Trot Derby Day and when RGod was introduced he was resoundly greeted by unanimous boos! Prior to that when he walked in the opening night parade despite the influx of staffers and hacks cheering 4 more years people would not only would not cheer but again had the crowd routinely booing when he passed by. Folks down here are normally polite but when they boo a sitting governor (just like they did Goerge his last year) that is not a good thing. I already have my mind made up and only blog here to report facts that I know happen. I am not interested in speculation, don’t care. All I am saying is the guy is in trouble here, take it to the bank. He might run 90% elsewhere and maybe this area does not count but I’d say he would rather have it as to not have it. To think otherwise is not a smart thing to do.
Comment by Paul Powell Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 7:30 am
Well, the various Dem contingents–rich white urban liberals, blacks, and Hispanics should be able to use Eisendrath’s campaign to advance their own (often conflicting) agendas. If one of those groups, especially blacks or Hispanics (there aren’t enough rich white libs to matter although they do make a lot of noise) goes with Eisendrath, should he run, Blago might have to give them some significant gifts (jobs, contracts, outright cash) to get them back into the fold. If this type of defection should occur, it will be interesting to see what the price of reunification will be. After all, it’s not inconceivable that when EE inevitably loses,
the disaffected group could shift, or threaten
to shift, over to JBT.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 10:00 am
If EE throws a ton of money and attention downstate, works the small dem populous in the Western and far Northern areas of the state and ignores the City, he has a decent shot at winning. Rod may get the City vote, but the turnout will be depressed since the last election. There’s no Senate candidate, no Presidential election, and Da Mare is going to be worrying more about keeping his guys together than helping Rod out.
As hard as it is for the Rod guys to admit (B Hicks) Rod’s got an extremely uphill battle that he’ll need to wage in the Primary. And with some of his strongest downstate folks gone to other jobs, he’s going to have an even tougher time.
Depressed city turnout+ Southern IL contempt+ loss of key staff= extremely close election.
Comment by Duke of DuQuoin Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 11:27 am
What happens if EE can’t raise enough money to saturate the market. Does he still have a chance?
Comment by Lola Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 1:22 pm
Don’t think he needs to saturate the market…literally being downstate and appearing genuinely interested in what folks say should do the trick.
The St. Louis market’s expensive, he can run a totally Anyone But Rod campaign for $2M and get 35%
Comment by Duke of DuQuoin Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 2:55 pm
I don’t believe it will take very much money on EE’s part to make it a very close race. The people of the State of Illinois are sick and tired of Gov Bozo’s crap. Plain and simple. Only the simple people will continue to back Blago because they believe they were *really* helped by all of his press releases, I mean grand intiatives.
As for that army of workers, I know of a 45,000 member army that will do anything to be rid of Blago and his hacks - the employees of the state that have been hosed.
Comment by Papa Legba Thursday, Dec 15, 05 @ 6:01 pm