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* Who would be the strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate in a general election? Explain. Also, can that person win the GOP primary? Explain as well.
And, please, try to avoid snark. I know it’s an uphill climb, but take the question seriously. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 5:30 am
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Despite the problems the Democrats are having, any of the GOP candidates will have an uphill fight to win the governorship. However, Mark Kirk, if he were to run for governor, would be the strongest candidate, because he is more moderate in his views than the other candidates. George Ryan, who was a conservative Republican, only got elected because his general election opponent was even more conservative. Otherwise, the Republicans who won the governorship were much more moderate than any of the announced GOP candidates for governor. Kirk may have a shot at winning the nomination, as the more conservative voters, who dominate the GOP primary, may be split so many ways that if the remaining moderates in the party unite behind Kirk, he could win a plurality of the vote. If Kirk does not run and win the primary, I think the governorship stays in Democratic hands.
Comment by LouisXIV Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 5:53 am
ray lahood would be the strongest republican. this is especially true if his democratic opponent was lisa madigan. lahood would have as much claim to the obama magic as lisa would and he would suffer from the claim that he was trying to concentrate political power in the hands of a single family.
i have no idea if republican primary voters would pick lahood as their nominee…
Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 6:25 am
that should have been “he would NOT suffer from the claim”…
sorry (it’s still morning)
Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 6:25 am
No one at this point…tho the Dems have had their problems I do not see a strong Republican candidate.
Off topic-there is an article from the AP on page 3 of this am’s SJ-R that gives an alternative view on Palin’s resignation. This view has not been presented on the national news channels that I have heard. I did not link it to my comments cause I do not know how and this is your site not mine anyhow.
Comment by long time state worker Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 6:31 am
I doubt outside the rest of the state outside of the Chicago area at least (or DuPage County) knows who Schillerstrom is. Bill Brady might be more well known. Proft while fiery may not make it thru the primary. As for Mark Kirk, I’m not seeing it. What makes anyone think he can make it thru a primary after he caved in on cap and trade.
BTW, I’m not sure being a conservative is harmful. What is harmful is being a conservative that’s all limited government yet don’t mind hiking taxes for one way or another. Indeed even raising taxes or expanding government period is a bad proposition for both a Democrat or a Republican.
Personally I think the strongest Republican candidate for Governor should have a strong vision for the state. Also they should be able to unify the party in a way that it hasn’t been since Rod Blagojevich got elected.
Comment by Levois Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 6:39 am
Brady is my pick. He can go after the union democrats downstate and hope to convince them that the Chicago democrats are not protecting their interests.
I think if Valas would back out of Cook County and run for Guv as a R he is formidable. I had hoped he would challenge Blago in 06.
The X factor remains Mike Madigan. If he supports Lisa, the republican wins. Mike has to go. He has orchestrated the budget nightmare over the past 6 years. Don’t forget, Blago signed the budgets and played hanky panky with about 5% of the numbers, but Mike Madigan drafted the entirety of those budgets. Not to mention he endorsed Blago twice. If you vote for anybody endorsed by Mike Madigan at this point, your voting privileges should be revoked for life.
Comment by the Patriot Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:03 am
As an Independent (who was raised in a Democratic household), I look forward to seeing change from what we have had over the past six years. I don’t see any progress with the Administration we have - just a lot of in-fighting and seeing what they can get for themselves. I think it is time for a change. Ryan was a disappointment but Blago was an even bigger disappointment.
Comment by this voter will remember Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:19 am
Forgive me for stating the obvious, but the Republicans will have a very difficult time getting any statewide office holder elected. The right wing is already announcing candidates to run against their own parties minority leader. They will do everything in their power to make sure an ultra conservative wins the state primary and then no one, will vote for that person in the general. Illinois is not a right wing state and never will be.
Comment by leigh Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:28 am
Mark Kirk the strongest?
First, he’s not a moderate on social issues, he’s a radical liberal. Moderate would be something like no public funding, or parental notification/consent on abortion. The man doesn’t even believe in conscience protections. He may be a “fiscal conservative”, but Obama claimed to be one too. His vote on cap and trade killed that cred.
More importantly, he’s been saying he’s going to decide every month since December what he was running for, but continues to not decide. He’s afraid of running against Lisa Madigan. He has no leadership and more importantly, if he’s so afraid of campaigning against Lisa, how can we send him to Springfield and expect him to stand up to Mike Madigan?
The only candidate without the negatives to sink him in the primary and the one who can attract moderates and independents in Adam Andrzejewski and he’s the only one out there with issues and policies that resonate. In fact, he’s the only one out there actually putting out there what policies and issues he’s supporting.
Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:33 am
Hands down Patrick Fitzgerald. He is probably the only person in the Peoples Republic of Illinois that can win as a Republican. The only way Democrats lose the governorship is if they nominate Osama bin Laden
Comment by Ih8Rinos Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:33 am
If StateWideTom can’t get up for the race, then I suggest the GOPs turn to Mike Madigan then we can be assured of a Madigan in the Mansion in ‘10. Illinois would prosper and life would A-OK.
Let’s see Capt Fax top that!
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:48 am
If Dillard can unite the suburban communities with downstate support, he would be a formidable candidate. (I said if)
Comment by One of the 35 Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:51 am
Of all the guys being discussed, I think Brady and Dillard are the only guys that could actually win a general election. I’m not sure Dillard can win the primary though, with his vote for the CTA tax hike and the Obama commercial thing (which makes him stronger in a general).
Brady will be labeled too conservative until he wins. Personally, I don’t think it would kill him in a general election in this cycle as long as HE doesn’t focus on it. Voters want leadership, I would hazard a guess that more than two thirds or more aren’t going to give a rats behind what he thinks about abortion or guns this particular cycle. It’s SO bad in Springfield, I think the candidate that can convince voters he has a plan and can start cleaning up this mess will win.
To an earlier poster, Andzejeski (or whatever his name is) would be less effective than Quinn has been. Remember a guy named Jimmy Carter? As much as we would like to think someone from the outside could stroll in and turn the state on its ear, the reality is, if they can’t somehow forge a working relationship with the leaders, NOTHING will change. And JB, he is going to have to get a little more specific than the broad generalities he has listed as “issues” on his web page. The press is going to have him for lunch if that’s all he’s got. Doesn’t matter if you put stuff online if you don’t really say anything.
Proft is a joke, Murphy is too green, and Schillerstrom would get killed for wheeling and dealing in DuPage as board chair if he made it out of the primary, which I doubt he can do. Kirk ended his chances at statewide office with his vote on Cap & Trade.
I do think it’s good that it’s wide open, but the guys with a chance need to get moving.
Comment by Ready Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:21 am
Since Mark Kirk will run for re-election, I think there is no question that the other Kirk will be the best candidate. Dillard is smart and hard working. He gets along well with many in both parties. He has the best shot in this Blue (as in sad, politically) state.
Comment by Suburbs Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:25 am
Bob Schillerstrom is the only executive in the race who has actually accomplished what everyone else says they are going to try to do. His issues align with the state. He is moderate on social issues, but conservative on fiscal responsibility and brings a pro-business attitude.
Comment by Bikin Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:29 am
Kirk’s vote for the cap-and-trade bill creates a huge problem in any statewide primary. Remember he’s also a big gun control advocate too.
Not sure if Dillard can overcome his votes to raise taxes and his Obama video. Bob S will split the DuPage vote.
The best debater is Proft, who will keep the race entertaining.
Comment by reformer Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:30 am
Dillaed is the only canidate who would have even a slight chance in the general election. I’m counting on the reactionaries to make sure he doesn’t get out of the primary. If he does become the nominee his Obama video and voting record would be a big plus in the general.
Comment by Bill Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:37 am
Dillard. Sorry, Kirk.
Comment by Bill Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:38 am
Kirk Dillard. Great resume, works well with both conservatives and moderates, ability to raise funds, and a somewhat fresh face.
Comment by 4 percent Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:43 am
Jim Edgar. This man becomes more statesmanlike with each passing day. Seriously, if he chose to run, dems and repubs would find their tails between their legs and wetting themselves. The people of Illinois would flock to him because this man knows how to balance a budget and be adult about it.
With that said, I’m with Governor Quinn. He’s doing a great job.
Comment by Anon Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:49 am
anyone think about brady?? or dahl??? brady’s hardcore republican and dahl is more moderate, both would have a base. kirk, why i admire his service, is not in touch with reality–but does it really matter if WE can’t get our sh#t together and stop all this “jockeying” for position. our leaders need to LEAD, we have the VOTES, now VOTE!!!!!!!!!
Comment by rwa420 Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 8:58 am
Does the GOP have a millionaire pol who 1) is willing to fund a lot of his race and 2) does not have a name that ends in Oberweis?
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:13 am
I agree, Brady. He already has established himself with a sizable portion of the conservative electorate statewide, with his previous run in the ‘06 primary. (He entered the race late, if I remember correctly, and still finished a descent 3rd in a crowded field) He checks off a lot of boxes for the Republicans in the primary, too, making that contest a much easier proposition with no true *star* candidates in the field.
Comment by Baines 4 Prez Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:13 am
Dan Proft is a great speaker and has some great ideas on how to “fix” things. However, he has managed to get on the bad side of some very powerful and credible press people like Carol Marin with his blunt candor. Proft has failed to learn how to “play the game” in order to yet preserve his own sense of integrity. I respect him for that but it might prove costly to him. He is his own man. I am not sure if Illinois politics is ready yet for a guy like that. Proft’s mindset is that “Lemmings need not apply” when it comes to good state government. The Illinois Democrat and Republican Party leadership will fight that radical concept to the death. However, I believe that it is still early enough that if Proft is given the opportunity to be heard by the majority of the voters of Illinois, he will have a better than 50/50 chance of being chosen as the GOP nominee. And, if he gets the opportunity to debate Lisa (or Pat Quinn), then we will get to watch Proft “slice & dice” them with the facts. The “Big IF” being whether Mr. Proft gets the needed media exposure to enable the Illinois voters to get to know him and his ideas for “fixing” Illinois government. He is a guy who passionately believes in getting things done and in doing so, he sometimes tends to be a little too truthful and manages to step on some powerful people’s toes. If Proft was politically smart, he would be inclined to “play the game” like the other gubernatorial candidates do and to proceed slowly and tell people what they wish to hear. However, then I guess he wouldn’t be Dan Proft “The Fixer”, now would he?
Bill Brady would be the second strongest candidate because he is a “watered down” version of Dan Proft and that is probably what moderate Republicans are possibly looking for. I guess that it will be decided on Primary Day by “just how mad” and passionate the Illinois GOP voters are with the way the state is being run (or not run).
Comment by John Doe Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:25 am
It would be interesting to see the favorable/unfavorable and name recognition for Brady and Proft. Both way to far to the right for the average Illinoisan. The Republicans have to run a moderate if they have any chance at all.
Comment by leigh Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:36 am
Mark Kirk is definitely our best chance for either statewide position. A proven fundraiser with an undefeated record, Kirk can appeal to the base and win independents simultaneously.
Comment by GOPPER Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:48 am
This is a real good question. The Republicans really don’t have much in terms of a good candidate. They need a wealthy CEO type who doesn’t need campaign contributions.
Comment by Steve Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:53 am
Dillard. He can gain the support of the right wing and the business wing of the GOP. He knows how to win from his days with Edgar and Thompson. The only one that can claim the experience needed to fix this mess.
Comment by Red Ranger Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:55 am
I think Dillard is probably the strongest in the general. A hard-core conservative almost can’t get elected statewide anymore. That said, Dillard is way too moderate to get through a primary. For all the Republican talk about Democratic infighting, they themselves set the bar on that one. As long as the extreme right controls the primary process (and to a certain degree, they do), the Republicans will have significant troubles electing anyone statewide.
Comment by Randolph Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:55 am
What is the argument for saying that Adam Andrzejewski would have appeal in the general election? He has surrounded himself with the most pure (some would call rabid) parts of the conservative movement in Illinois. John, do you honesty think he will be able to veer to the center after the primary–or do you expect that he will be able to convert independents and conservative democrats to the far right conservative wing of the GOP?
Comment by jstew Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 9:59 am
The only reason a conservative hasn’t been able to win in Illinois is because they allow themselves to be defined by their opponents and can’t stay “on message.”
Voters aren’t going to vote on the social issues in the general in 2010. They’re going to vote on who they think might actually clean up this mess. That said, it’s up to the conservative to define himself first if he gets out of the primary.
Jim Ryan was much more conservative than Edgar or Thompson. His one “flaw” with conservatives was his support of some gun control measures. Yet, he still won AG twice and a second term as AG easily. You don’t do that without Independents. He probably would have been elected governor if he hadn’t had such an unfortunate last name at the worst possible time.
This idea that conservatives can’t win is ridiculous. Conservatives that run lousy campaigns can’t win. But we haven’t seen a conservative run a good campaign in this state in quite a while.
Comment by Ready Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:00 am
Who in their right mind would want to be Gov. with the mess the State is in?
I think Kirk or Dillard are probably the 2 strongest candidates given the fact they are “middle of the roaders”. The problem is the GOP primaries are usually captured by the extreme right!
Comment by MOON Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:03 am
Dillard is the Republicans strongest candidate against any Democrat ! He will appeal to independents and receive a better than most African-American vote. He will also be a strong governor since he knows how to lead. Can he get thru the primary?? If the vote vote is split amongst 3 or 4 people; then, probably yes.
Comment by storman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:04 am
@ Steve at 9;53am
No, we don’t need “a wealthy CEO type who doesn’t need campaign contributions.” The last time we had that we ended up with Jim Oberweis.
Comment by Nikoli Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:06 am
While not getting much notice, Sen. Murphy I beleive is the best candidate. He is conservative but is not an “in your face” conservative so he will appeal to all groups in a general. His platform is business/jobs and ethics. He has a very commanding presence when he is on the stump. Probably considered a dark horse at this point but he is relatively new to the scene.
Comment by Lake Voter Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:12 am
Edgar would clearly be the strongest GOP candidate. Proven winner who could pummel any right-winger in a primary (Steve Baer), then appeal to moderates and conservative Dems in a general election. Popular in every corner of the state.
–First, he’s (Kirk) not a moderate on social issues, he’s a radical liberal.–
John, that’s a pretty good one.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:16 am
Dillard will be the nominee! When he announces on the 8th he will have some conservative leaders on stage with him to show that he can bring the base with him. He also has Gidwitz raising money for him which sets his campaign apart form the others. Brady and the rest have brought nothing to the campaign they have been out there for months and …nothing. No spark, no groundswell, no nothing.
Comment by votecounter Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:21 am
the dillard love continues to blow my mind! i am not certain there is a politician in illinois who likes to read his press clippings more than kirk dillard (i am guessing he never read the clips from when he twice lost for senate leader though). i would say murphy is probably the best, most pragmatic candidate in the race. plus the republican party needs someone who has experience in government, but isnt a lifer or recycled candidate
Comment by GOP Fan Still Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:22 am
The GOP needs to go with a Hail Mary candidate, so John Kass.
Comment by MrJM Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:24 am
As someone who has watched the GOP self-destruct over the past 15 years, I don’t think there is ANYONE who can both win a Republican primary and be viable in a general election against any of the Dems. Since the religious right has captured the Republican party processes, they will ensure that the GOP as we knew it will no longer exist.
Comment by Suburban Ex-Republican Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:36 am
Jim Durkin
He is a moderate, well versed, understands how to campaign statewide, gets along with both sides, able to speak with the press and has a very strong and large network.
Comment by 2010 Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:39 am
It is not conservatives who have set about to destroy the GOP. Many very conservative politicians have found themselves in the crosshairs of the extremist faction of the Party. This faction, well represented on this blog, craves power and will not tolerate dissent. If someone is conservative in their views but will not join them in their campaign of hatred, they too must be defeated. Those who have observed that the extreme wing of the GOP will doom its chances of nominating anyone who can win are correct. Just don’t make the blanket statement that “conservatives” are the problem.
Comment by E Pluribus Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:43 am
I know this is silly to suggest, but I think if Patrick Fitzgerald considered running for Governor as a Republican, he could secure the nomination– he is not from Chicago, has a statewide reputation, there seem to be no flies on him, his procecutorial credentials would rival Lisa Madigan’s should she want to run for Governor, and he really is outside the political party establishment.
Comment by Captain Flume Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:46 am
Toss up between kirk and dillard, but I lean kirk. I think kirk has more charisma, which drives a good campaign.
The gop conservatives would rather put a dem in office theb elect a viable canidate, so neither kirk wins the primary.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:49 am
E Pluribus, I agree with you as to how the word “conservative” has been degenerated and misappropriated by those who are anything but.
Barry Goldwater was a conservative. So was William Buckley. So is Dick Lugar and (dare I mention his name?), Colin Powell.
Do you think those guys could pass the litmus tests of the full-mooners?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:55 am
Kirk Dillard, hands down.
In fact, absent the Obama ad he did, I think he would have this thing sewn up already. Doing that ad has slowed him, but I think Republicans will forgive. In the General it probably helps him.
Most of the other candidates are lightweights. Brady, proven loser and dumb as a box of rocks. Kirk, no, looks like he’ll stay in the 10th and ‘yes’ vote on cap & trade has the base chasing him with torches and pitchforks. In downstate coal country they’ll burn him in effigy. Schillerstrom, please. Dan Proft, his real tagline should be “do as I say, not as I do.”
Adam Andrzejewski is an impressive candidate, and appears clean. But since this is his first run for office, he should switch over to Comptroller. GOP primary voters just won’t accept Gov as entry level in politics, no matter how good the guy seems on the stump or how good his business resume is.
Comment by Just sayin Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:56 am
The only thing that Dan Proft can “fix” is contracts with Larry Dominick and his acolytes. It is laughable to think that Proft or that other Illinois Leader backed guy (Adam Andrzejewski) have a chance in the general. The Tom Roeser Republicans in this state just refuse to accept that Illinois is now a blue state and that the hard core right candidates don’t have a chance. As a result, they continue to destroy any socially moderate republican, which is the only sort of republican who has a ghost of a chance. That said, I think that Kirk has a chance in the general but not in the primary. Dillard will never get through the primary because of the Obama commercial.
Thus it will be some unelectable right wing hack like Brady who will get crushed by the DemocratIC nominee once again.
Comment by TominChicago Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:59 am
I’m a big fan of Jim Durkin based upon what I saw in his Jeff Berkowitz interview.
I say none of the above(and I have a well earned reputation for being a militant Mark Steven Kirk supporter on this blog). The Republican party doesn’t seem to want to find a strong message or vision these days and I’d rather see democrats elected than go through what we did in 2006-2008 where the Republicans we elected destroyed the party’s reputation and image.
If you put a gun to my head, I’d go with Matt Murphy if only because he seems decent and I am beyond fed up with my party’s establishment and yes this includes Mark Kirk.
Comment by Shore Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:00 am
Mark Kirk IS the only real chance for the IL GOP. The GOP has to get over its all or nothing stance. By that I mean the notion that somehow moderate republicans do not count. “A bird in the hand beats two in the bush.” One cannot be everything to everybody. The (neo) conservative element of the republican party, be it Illinois or nationally, needs to STOP bashing moderate republicans as weak.
The ONLY hope for the growth of the republican party (nationally or in Illinois) is to attract moderate democrats and independents. Obviously the base isn’t going to go anywhere, so why keep pandering to them at the expense of winning big elections? It makes no sense!
I’ve noticed over the last several weeks on this blog some posters have been critical of kirk simply because they don’t like his moderate stances. so, they belittle and besmirch. I consider myself a moderate democrat, who leans more republican, but is unwilling to go because of people like limbaugh, palin, gingrich, cheney et al. I do NOT like the consertaive wing of republican party. What a bunch of about “mother blowhards.” They come across as mean-spirited, ugly, petty, in other words boorish, and they get so caught in the personal attacks that they get off message.
So when Mark Kirk is bashed for not being “true” republican it undermines his credibility and in the eyes of moderate democrats and independents he looks weak, not because of his stances, but because his party is attacking him–suggesting that he has no party support.
If the IL GOP would have just gotten behind him, kept their mouths shut, he would win because he would attract the MANY moderate democrats and independents who DO NOT want a tax increase for social welfare programs in Illinois without reforms and cuts, first.
Strategically the best thing would be to take him as he is and work with him over the course of his first term to advance more conservative causes. He may not go along with all, but for the sake of getting relected and party support he would go along with some conservative causes.
if the republicans had supported peter fitzgerald, who was a bit of maverick, but still a republican, obama would not be in the white house today. so whatever misery the republicans are going through and will go through for the next 4-8 years is their own doing.
If the IL GOP is serious that they don’t want anymore democrat governors, then they should have ALL gotten behind Mark Kirk and helped him to win, because he could have.
STOP with the RINO bashing because it only always costs the republican in the end. Sometimes RINO is better than none. Think bigger picture.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:04 am
Kirk Dillard with Steve Schnorf as his Lt. Gov and GOMB head in the general election — but how would these two get past the primaries?
Comment by Capitol View Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:05 am
I wouldn’t rule out Christine Rodogno. She’s proven to be effective as majority leader in the Senate. She works with the other side but still stands firm for her caucus. She also has statewide name recognition from the last general election.
Comment by casual observer Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:08 am
Sorry…minority leader
Comment by casual observer Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:10 am
Congressman Kirk can’t win the general election, because he’s moderate. In 2008, Dr. Sauerberg was moderate, and he got 29%. In 2006, then-Treasurer Topinka was moderate, and she got 38%. Republicans will only win if we nominate a conservative, and the best one is Adam Andrzejewski. I’ve heard many people, of all parties, say that they are anti-incumbent and that they want to vote for more outsiders. Adam doesn’t have an elective office, but he’s a conservative.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:12 am
If Jim Thompson presented himself as a proven manager who is both willing and able to take care of the state’s problems, I could see him winning a general election over Quinn. (If Madigan is the Democrats’ candidate, I doubt there’s an Illinois Republican who would be able to beat her unless Zombie Lincoln filed papers.)
Would the Illinois GOP primary electorate be willing to let Thompson run without trying to push him to the extreme right on social issues? It’s a good question.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:32 am
Will County, as I said earlier, I am generally dismissed on this blog because I am a militant Kirk supporter, which I am to an extent. That said, I don’t see him as a dream candidate and will not blindly get behind his campaign for any office. Despite the fact that he is described as the savior by most, he failed in a party leadership bid in 2006, his suburban strategy didn’t work, his district has gotten more Democrat while he’s been there, he wastes a ton of time on irrelevant international issues that are generally the purview of state department desk officers, he’s backed by the Hastert group which blew our majority in congress and like most republicans today completely lacks a vision for the state, nation and world.
The GOP can try for half baked quick fixes like Kirk or it can do what most smart republicans want it to do right now, which is to take a step back, look at the world as it is, and to go forward with fresh leaders and thinking.
As for the RINO bashing and moderate love, realize the democrat party did far better in the polls in 2008 when it started behaving like the democrat party and junked it’s focus on moderates. It’s not unreasonable for the base of the party to want to elect someone that represents its views.
Comment by Shore Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 11:43 am
Shore, I’m not going to argue wth you on this. we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
you cut your nose off to spite your face. None of the declared republicans thus far are of any interest to moderate democrats or independents, at least not at first glance. In this type of perfect storm political environment the republicans really needed to come on strong starting NOW.
as a moderate democrat, who leans republican, and would like to go republican if only they would ever support the right people, i think Kirk’s international experience is something that could be more of an asset than a libality. we do live in a globalized world, whether we like it or not.
so you’re telling me that Kirk is weak, terrible, a low down dity rat, make me think ok so he is. Guess I won’t be voting republican afterall.
Thanks, shore.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:05 pm
== The (neo) conservative element of the republican party, be it Illinois or nationally, needs to STOP bashing moderate republicans as weak. ==
Isn’t Mark Kirk in the Neoconservative fold?
I think Kirk is better slated as a Senator representing Illinois than as its Governor. He already spends most of his time in Congress devoted to foreign relations and trade. And the GOP in the Senate needs someone, heck, anyone, that can make them appear as a “big tent party”.
I think Kirk gets recruited by the RSCC to take a shot at Senator Burris’ seat.
Dillard is the best GOP candidate in my view. He’s conservative. He earned his spurs working for two term Governor Jim Edgar. He would be introducing himself to voters. Can he raise the money to do that? It really depends on the other GOP primary candidates.
The GOP needs a lot of help. Too bad Michael Madigan is still around.
Comment by Brennan Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:06 pm
Did I really just read someone pushing Jim Thompson for Governor? Why doesn’t the GOP just concede now if things are that much of a joke.
First of all Big Jim is older than Methuselah, and second of all, running George Ryan’s lawyer and the head of Blagojevich’s transition team is probably a bad idea. Oh, and Thompson’s firm was Blago’s lawyer too.
Lisa Magigan should probably just announce for Gov and put the Repubs out of their misery early. The IL GOP burned its bench and it’s headed for yet another disaster in 2010.
Comment by Just sayin Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:11 pm
Ray LaHood without a doubt. Obama did Dems a favor by taking him out of the running.
Comment by Will Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:11 pm
Why not Tom Cross? He’s sharp, presents himself very well on TV and in public appearances, and would appeal to moderates.
Kirk is quickly becoming a joke. His failure to make any announcement in months, his personal troubles, and his ridiculous “I read the whole Cap and Trade Bill” video demonstrate a flailing, weak candidate. Kirk, however, will likely declare for Governor if for no reason other than not wanting to get spanked if he runs for re-election in the 10th. I think Kirk’s moment is slowly slipping away.
Comment by springfieldish Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:14 pm
Brennan,
Mark kirk is not of the neo con fold. Does he strike you as a cheney type of republican????????Seriously, does he?
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:24 pm
Will county, politico announced this morning that republican moderates Susan collins and olympia snowe voted with obama 92 percent of the time. That’s not what the GOP wants in our next senator.
As I said I’ve been a kirk supporter since 2000, and draw heat on this blog for militantly supporting him but he’s got to make a case, and after the last 2 elections I am sick of republicans coasting and telling the party faithful to “just trust them”. The democrats were better off when they dug deeper to find a new level within themselves and I’d much prefer the GOP to work and think harder. Kirk has the tools, but I’m not in if he’s going to play the games he does up in the 10th.
BTW, if Proft reads this, you sounded more like a cross between conservative talk show host from 1995 and a poli sci teaching assistant reviewing section notes last night on roeser’s show, than a serious candidate for governor.
Comment by Shore Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:28 pm
Dillard: one of four state senators to vote for Blago’s $10 billion bonding program in 2003. Would cave on raising taxes in a heartbeat. TV ad for Obama. Arrogant and can’t hide it. Uninspiring. Does know state government well and could manage being Governor well. Probably big plurality from DuPage in a general election. Maybe could get the best vote in Chicago for a Republican. Don’t see him surviving a primary.
Brady: called for allowing teachers to carry weapons in the classroom. Not respected by his peers or people who have worked with him. No ability to win a general election. Two time loser.
Can’t raise money. Dull, boring, bland. Stuffed shirt with a gargantuan ego. Could ideologically unite the party except the bomb throwers. Just no oomph to get dems or independents in a general election. Lackluster to say the least.
Schillerstrom: an unexciting enigma to those of us in the rest of the state. Pro-choice stand and weak on guns mean no fire for him in a primary. With that said, he ought to be bragging heavily about the DuPage record with the highest acreage of parks per capita, best schools, low crime, business friendly environment.
Dan Proft: too abrasive, too arrogant, too ideological, too know-it-all. Presents people with an easy opportunity to strongly dislike him.
Kirk, excellent until his cap n trade vote. Conservatives were ready to get past his views on guns, gays and abortion. Not now.
Matt Murphy: not exciting but unifying for the party. Smart. Decent understanding of state government and challenges. Can get the vote needed for the general election in the suburbs. Question is can he get a decent 30% needed in the city? Being relatively young he helps redefine the GOP. Overall fairly solid.
Durkin: Also would be able to unite the party and has credible experience. Can he raise money? I dunno.
Nice if a white knight came along that could inspire voters, have a positive plan for the state, do well with independents and dems, united the GOP, raise money, has relevant experience for serving as Governor, and a record of winning tough elections. Does such a person exist?
If not, I’m probably going with Murphy. Could also be enticed by Durkin.
Comment by life-long IL Republican Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:28 pm
will, also any republican who says anything on anything is a cheney/bush/neocon to democrats for the next 10 years. In 2006 the dems literally took one vote and said Kirk votes with bush 100 percent of the time on such and such an issue. Since the issue was only voted on once and he agreed with the president of course he did. It’s a brilliant little nasty trick to play, but just a heads up.
Comment by Shore Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:30 pm
It’s a tie between Alan Keyes, Jim Oberwies, and Joe Birkett. They all have an equal chance at victory.
Comment by nice kid Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:42 pm
shore, kirk voted to support the war. but so did an overwhelming majority of democrats in the House and Senate.
for people to solely attack his past votig records and think that will do him in, I think are underestimating the public. the war is not a main electoral issue, the economy is. I think the public has turned the page and isn’t so much concerned with who voted with the Bush administration and how many times.
people are suffering (e.g., cannot pay mortgages, don’t have enough to eat, losing jobs or having hours cut). to harp on how many times kirk voted with bush is a distraction and irrelevent in today’s political landscape. I think you would find that most moderate democrats and independents would vote for Kirk, in spite of his voting record, provided he could articulate a reasonable plan and vision leading to progress/hope for the state of illinois. we’re looking for relief from Blago, the chicago democratic way of doing things, and mess. we want/need to move forward.
Kirk’s tone and temperment ala his last campaign against seals is just the right tone for Illinois right now. he was all about getting down to business.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:50 pm
It is tough being in the middle of any political party right now. Moderate Democrats are made to feel uncomfortable with the left wing of their party. The 40+ Democrats who voted against Cap and Trade in Washington and generally oppose most of the Obama liberal agenda are being sniped at by the purity brigade of their own party.
Likewise, the moderates in the GOP are being slammed mercilessly by the far right extremists.
Locally, moderates are being treated no better by either party.
So being practical and a problem solver in politics is not a plus these days according to extremists of both parties. You have to be foaming at the mouth, fiercely partisan and condemn anyone who doesn’t march lockstep with your views. Anything less and you are a RINO. Endorse someone who is not a Democrat, and you are off the reservation, thrown under the bus and left for dead. They even did that to the late Senator Geo-Karis after a half century of service to her party.
In my opinion for the GOP a new face such as Matt Murphy would be the best candidate for Governor. He is conservative but he doesn’t behave like the litmus test brigade of the right wing of the GOP. He is sharp and articulate and can debate with the best of them. A good campaigner and stump speaker.
I don’t see Kirk wanting to run for governor and I say this with no inside information to back it up. It is just a strong feeling on my part.
Governor Matt Murphy. Has a nice sound to it!
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:57 pm
I know he needs to become better known in the state, but Bob Schillerstrom would give the GOP the best shot. He is a moderate who plays in the suburbs and hasn’t been immersed in the mess of Springfield.
Comment by Duff Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:58 pm
–The 40+ Democrats who voted against Cap and Trade in Washington and generally oppose most of the Obama liberal agenda are being sniped at by the purity brigade of their own party.
Likewise, the moderates in the GOP are being slammed mercilessly by the far right extremists.–
Louis, the difference on the national level, at least, is that the Dem actively sought out strong candidates who didn’t pass litmus tests — Shuler of NC, Tester of Montana, Case of PA — to achieve a majority. Meanwhile, powerful elements of the GOP continue their auto de fe of alleged heretics.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:06 pm
I think and would truly like to see Ray Lahood. He has a lot of things going for him. He is a downstater,(and I think that there is going to be an anti- Chicago push in the next election, deverved or not. The debate could go both ways on whether Chicago gets more than downstate and there are more tax consumers and contributors there, but with Blago, Madigan, Jones, etc there has been a lot of C-town influence that has not gone well. ) he has experience at the national and state level, he can work well with both sides and has demonstrated that, he is currently working with the opposition party and seemingly doing well. He had a shot the last go around except the GOP trotted out Edgar as a possible candidate to get Lahood to drop out so Judy would have her ( supposedly deserved and owed) shot. I don’t see any baggage that he brings to the contest. The only issue is would he want to?
Comment by Irish Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:08 pm
As bad as the Ds have “governed” (and one couldn’t have been much worse), I just don’t see any R winning statewide office. Chicago/Cook are going to go D in such numbers as to keep the state all D, no matter how bad the Ds do.
Comment by doc Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:08 pm
The central question here is: what will the business community do and where have they been lately? I remember in the not-to-distant past when there was a Republican centric business community who could, if they were so inclined, raise tons of dollars for a republican candidate. They would sit on their hands when a democrat came along that they knew they couldn’t beat or who tacitly told them they had nothing to fear.
So, that said, I think that business establishment should come out of their coma and support Jim Durkin.
Comment by Joe in the Know Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:09 pm
@Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 12:57 pm:
I’m willing to give murphy a listen and I hope his rhetoric will suggest consensus building. I understand that for he purposes of a primary he has to run right, but assuming he wins the primary he is going to have to be a centrist.
It is his centrist side that is of interest to me. paricularly he will need to convince me that he has a plan and vision and is no nonsense.
so, i take back what i wrote earlier about not voting for any republican other than kirk because i was not being entirely fair.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:13 pm
–The central question here is: what will the business community do and where have they been lately? –
Jangling around in Mayor Daley’s pockets, like so many nickels and dimes, all in the hopes of zoning changes, TIFs, law business, insurance business, consulting contracts, airport contracts, Olympic contracts and “stability.”
Or, they’re gearing up to defeat Mark Kirk for cap and trade.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:15 pm
Mark Kirk has NO CHANCE of winning, he would be another in a long line of the country-clubber wing of the GOP that keeps losing elections because they pretend to be Democrats and voters have demonstrated they won’t vote for pretenders.
Jim Edgar will not run for public office again.
Ron Gidwitz would be the preferable candidate as he had the perfect conservative platform and the country clubber wing threw a massive fit when he started to campaign against Topinka to where they somehow made her an “untouchable”.
Comment by Segatari Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:27 pm
@ Segatari - Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:27 pm
interestingly Kirk won his last election convincingly. everyone keeps saying how his district is democratic, yet he still managed to be a formidable democratic opponent (for the second time).
i think of gidwitz and am reminded of paul vallas. had the IL GOP tapped him for governor and actually supported him, no dount he would win. gidwitz on the other hand is a thanks, but no thanks. meaning he wouldn’t win.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:39 pm
Segatari, Kirk has an appartment the size of a shoebox in fort sheridan, and is one of the poorest members of congress. Obama probably has 3 times his worth, and I have no doubt Dillard, Brady, Alexi, gidwitz, and Kennedy are far more loaded than him.
Comment by Shore Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:40 pm
Most still arguing for Mark Kirk are going to vote for the Democrat no matter who the Republican is.
Comment by T.J. Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:53 pm
Off-topic, but I just want to clarify that “an overwhelming majority of democrats in the House and Senate” (Will County Woman @ 1250pm) did NOT vote for the Iraq AUF.
House: 82 for, 126 AGAINST
Senate: 29 for, 21 AGAINST
That’s the kind of apocryphal nonsense that will get us into another dead-end conflict. The media made it sound like the whole country except for dirty-hippie rabble were marching to Iraq. This was simply not the case.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 1:59 pm
T.J. is probably right.
==Mark kirk is not of the neo con fold. Does he strike you as a cheney type of republican????????Seriously, does he?==
Dick Cheney doesn’t own nor define what it means to be a neoconservative. Mark Kirk is one. Hawkish on defense. Moderate on social issues. Hawkish on supporting Israel. Moderate on social spending.
Whatever remains of the neoconservatives is on life support. There’s no momentum to reform social spending. The hawks are in retreat on defense. The reset we are in is redefining everything we know about political tribes.
If I’m using what definition was applied in the 2001-2007 period of a neoconservative, then Mark Kirk is one.
Comment by Brennan Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:06 pm
Being upset with the lack of reform, Pat Collins has been calling around. I think he will need to secure some big money before he would even consider an exploratory committee.
His old boss would win hands down, but I don’t even know what party P.Fitz plays with.
Absence of money or big dog, I have to give a plurality edge to Proft. This is a surprise, but I think the DuPage vote gets split at least 2 ways and likely 3. Proft has an edge like a knife and may be able to cut a hole enough to get his head out.
Comment by Candellara Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:27 pm
If Proft is the GOP nominee, even Blago would have a chance in the general.
Comment by TominChicago Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:36 pm
brennan,
I couldn’t disagree with you more, so we’ll just have to agree to disagree. cheney and his ilk are representative of neo conservatism. because kirk is not is underscored by the fact that the prevailing winds within the republican party are not impressed with him and will not support him.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:39 pm
Dillard is the only one with a good chance in the general. Tough primary first. I like a Dillard/Brady ticket if Sen. Brady can be convinced to run for Lt. Gov.
Comment by downstate hick Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:49 pm
AA likes LaHood, but being the gentleman that he is, he may be reluctant to bail on the POTUS after a short stay at USDOT.
Brady should drop out now, as the crowded field will crowd out his message. He had his chance.
Mr. Gidwitz-Ditto.
Gov. Edgar-don’t even let the first spark ignite unless you are ready for the bonfire this time.
That would leave Kirk for the Senate and Murphy or Dillard for Guv. Don’t see the others as having either the money or the message to get it done in the primary, let alone the general.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:55 pm
I would say Jim Edgar would probably be the strongest.
Comment by Stones Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 2:56 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised to see moe R’s pull a Froehlich and switch parties. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. If nothing else, it would move the state party more to the center, where they could be semi-comfortable with the likes of MJM.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:05 pm
Bill brady
Comment by Dan S, a voter and Cubs Fan Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:17 pm
being downstate, I see the problem this state is in has more connection with the state of Chicago rather than the state of Illinois…that said, I think Brady is the strongest candidate. Perhaps that’s wishful thinking. But those who think that a moderate is needed are crazy. Look at ‘06. Judy was as moderate as they come, and she lost to WHO? A decent conservative-in every sense of the word- that runs a good campaign and isn’t a rightwing nutcase can win.
Comment by tanman Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:21 pm
Mark Kirk cannot win statewide. Those telling me he’s the only one who has a chance of winning…NO HE DOES NOT. Especially after his reckless vote for a cap and trade bill he didn’t read that will do nothing but put another nail in the coffin of the economy and further drive us to Great Depression II. If it turns out the primary is between a liberal like Kirk versus a conservative, the conservative is gonna win hands down. The only way Kirk would get the nomination is he’s the only liberal and the conservative vote is split between three or four candidates–which is how it turned out last time. Voting for another liberal in the GOP primary is assuring another loss.
Comment by Segatari Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:24 pm
AA
Gidwitz has pulled out and has gone to Dillard’s team to raise money. I agree that Brady is finished and if the rest of the candidates want to be taken seriously they had better show where they come up with 20 to 25 million dollars for the whole race. I think none of the other candidates will have the money to compete and Dillard will win the primary, and win the General. There will be no debates (for the money reason) to help the lower tear candidates get footing or free media.
Comment by votecounter Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:24 pm
The only Republican that stands half a chance is sen. Matt Murphy. He’s not tainted by scandal, nor intersting personal life. Boring, Irish and safe.
Comment by RedTrack Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:31 pm
Stop with the Edgar stuff, he’s the IL GOP’s meddling uncle. He will not and should not come near this election until the general and then only to endorse and raise $$ for the primary winner.
The Big Jim reference has to be a joke.
Matt Murphy seems to be the best of the lot and perhaps with the greatest chance. Depends on how much $$ he can raise early. Always seems to boil down to that, eh?
Comment by RobRoy Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 3:31 pm
VC - Just because you can raise a bunch of money doesn’t mean you’ll be taken seriously…just ask Ron Paul. There will be debates, there’s no way they can get their message explained with 30-second ads.
Comment by Segatari Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:18 pm
“Did I really just read someone pushing Jim Thompson for Governor? Why doesn’t the GOP just concede now if things are that much of a joke.”
Yes, my suggestion was meant to describe the dire state of the state party. I bet he’d win more votes statewide than Brady, Dillard, or anyone likely to actually be on the ballot. Given the changes in the collar counties the past five years (and the radical swing to the right of the party), I fail to see who has a realistic chance of convincing a majority of Illinois voters to choose a Republican governor.
In that context, Jim Thompson may be a joke, but not a bigger one than Alan Keyes.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:21 pm
Radical swing? What radical swing? Describe this radical swing you see cause I haven’t seen it…and I sure would like to know who’s leading that swing in this state cause they are either - nonexistant, or a figment of your imagination.
Comment by Segatari Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:31 pm
Kirk would be the strongest GOP candidate in the general if he decides to run for Gov. Lots of reasons:
Six months after his last race and he has already raised over a million under Federal limitations.
Rightwing GOPers couldn’t stand Kirk before his cap n trade vote. Their relentless screaming will make Kirk look even more reasonable to independents and right-leaning dems sick of Blago and the Dem powers-that-be.
Team Kirk is tireless and relentless. A fundraising machine and hardworking, focused campaigners who have successfully competed in 4 years of tough oppossition.
The guy is clean. See above - if the guy had any scandals lurking in his past the millions of dollars spent against him in the past two cycles would have dug it up.
Kirk himself is smart, hardworking and grasps both policy and politics.
He has no connection to the current Springfield mess.
Comment by 10th Indy Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:35 pm
Draft Vallas and commit business interests to funding the campaign. Who’s stronger on bu7dget issues?
Comment by corvax Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:47 pm
oops forgot about the primary question - he can probably win - a lot of conservatives to share the rightwing vote could help him. personally i think he would make a very good governor but think he is more likely to run for the senate.
Comment by 10th Indy Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:47 pm
Kirk would do well. He is young, has hair and presents himself well. As for his “Cap and Trade” vote I am willing to bet that 99% of Americans have no clue what it is and what it means. Nor do they care. It will be a non-factor if he runs.
Comment by Toast Man Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 4:48 pm
Seg
A guy named Blagojevich had 9 million dollars in the bank and was automatically looked at as front runner and taken seriously. With the fundraising numbers coming out in a week or two, especially if you have been a candidate for a while, you better have raised some money if you didn’t the end is near.
Comment by votecounter Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 5:08 pm
Tony Peraica would win, but Republicans would trip him up before the Democrats would!
Comment by Manzo Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 7:08 pm
Obviously it is Congressman Kirk, but he isn’t in the race.
At the moment it’s Schillerstrom. He is a moderate and runs DuPage county..a GOP vote stronghold. He is suburban, has executive (business) experience, is a Springfield outsider alas Dillard, Murphy, Brady, and is just a proven leader.
I’ll be supporting & voting for Bob Schillerstrom unless Mark Kirk enters the race, then it’s exit stage left for everyone else.
Comment by scoot Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:11 pm
well if anyone saw Dillard’s rented truck on Saturday in the western burbs, you can see he’s already running for something…
Dillard screwed with gun owners just once in the recent past.
Mark Kirk is consistent in his contempt for gun owners. Lately he seems consistent in making enemies in every facet of the IL GOP except for the blue corner.
Comment by borzoi Monday, Jul 6, 09 @ 10:17 pm
Thanks for your input, Gov. Quinn!
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Jul 7, 09 @ 9:10 am
Voters will choose the Anti-Blagojevich. He/She will be an adult. An adult with experience, competence and a focus on government, not celebrity.
This person will be more conservative than Blagojevich, have more ties to government and business leaders, and not charismatic. If they can come off as someone like Edgar or Thompson, that would be a plus. An Edgar or Thompson endorcement would be a coup for them in the Primary.
A flashy candidate needn’t apply. An angry voter base desires a straight-talking adult over a Mr/Ms Charisma.
The GOP nominates candidates they believe can win the General. All this talk about purity and right wing extremists, comes from Democrats who believe that GOP voters are narrow-minded neanderthals. The GOP has a record which conters any moronic lies they push. Illinois conservatism exists, but primary voters are pragmatic.
Ron Gidwitz fits the bill. He isn’t from government, but has excellent ties within government. He has excellent ties within Chicago. He has led on educational issues with AA leaders. He has already ran in the GOP primary and knows how to lose. He has the wealth to pay for another run.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jul 7, 09 @ 9:31 am