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* Let’s look ahead. First, an interesting theory in the Daily Herald…
[Lisa] Madigan’s move has repercussions beyond just the ballot box.
Quinn, who rose to the spot from lieutenant governor after Blagojevich’s ouster, has had trouble marshaling support from lawmakers as he pushes an income tax hike and struggles with service cuts facing a $9 billion budget shortfall.
Lawmakers who have long expected Madigan to successfully challenge Quinn in a primary had little reason to listen to him.
“Certainly the idea that Lisa Madigan was going to be there to take him out made it easier for lawmakers to take Quinn on,” said Kent Redfield, interim director of the Institute for Legislative Studies at the University of Illinois in Springfield. “If they now come to the conclusion that they are stuck with Quinn, that may change the calculations.”
There was far more to the resistance than that. A tax hike is considered by many to be a political death trap. But it’s still an interesting thought.
* Campaign-wise, Delmarie Cobb wins our quote of the day award… again…
Burris campaign aide Delmarie Cobb said Madigan’s decision, along with money are part of “a long line of factors” determining if Burris would seek election.
“As you know, there have been many marquee names thrown out for this seat and so far they have all fizzled,” Cobb said. “With [Burris] as the incumbent, it seems the Democratic Party would do well to rally around the person who has the seat and keep the seat rather than mine for a candidate.”
I can’t foresee a career in political prognostication for Ms. Cobb. Then again, the cable networks tend to choose people who are always wrong as their regular pundits, so maybe I’m off base here.
* The a general consensus is building that yesterday’s announcement was good for Republicans…
Republicans in general and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in particular look like the beneficiaries of Wednesday’s announcement by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan that she’s running for re-election, not for governor or U.S. Senate, one analyst says.
It was certainly good news for US Senate Republicans. A Lisa Madigan candidacy was their most feared outcome. But Mark Kirk is no sure thing. Not yet, anyway. We’ll see how the Democratic primary goes.
* Speaking of Kirk, if he does go ahead with a US Senate run as expected, his seat will be open…
Potential Democratic nominees include: State Sen. Michael Bond, who was already in the race; Dan Seals, who was Kirk’s opponent in 2006 and 2008; and state Sen. Susan Garrett. Possible Republican candidates include state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson, state Rep. JoAnn Osmond, and businessman Dick Green.
Democrats think they’ll have a pretty good shot at this seat, as it is one of only six districts that were won by both Obama in 2008 and Kerry in 2004, but are represented by Republicans. On the Republican side, a source told me: “This won’t be an easy seat to hold, but with the right candidate and Kirk on the ticket, it is possible.”
Kirk had an amazing ballot impact last year. Down-ballot legislative Republicans in his district who were deemed vulnerable all ended up winning. That’s one big reason Republicans love the idea of a Kirk candidacy. Here’s another…
“He attracts votes in large percentages from both independents and Democrats,” Edgar said. “He is the moderate kind of Republican that can win statewide in Illinois.”
…Adding… The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee already has an Intertubes ad thingy designed to discredit Kirk as a moderate…
[Hat tip to a commenter.]
Madigan’s move also makes it very likely that Comptroller Dan Hynes will run for governor instead of a fourth term as comptroller, Redfield predicted.
He was never running for a fourth term as comptroller. He had been eyeing AG. Now, he has little choice but to look at guv.
* LG for Hamos?
The Madigan move also could be felt further down the ballot. State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston), who had been weighing a possible candidacy for attorney general, told supporters she was looking for their input about another office to seek—potentially lieutenant governor.
Your own predictions?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:31 am
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My prediction: Dan Hynes runs for Cook County Board President
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:34 am
I predict Hynes will now run for Cook County Board President.
Comment by culatr Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:35 am
culatr: you are brilliant!
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:36 am
My own prediction is watch this blog. Likely primary winners will rise like cream in the estimation of its participants. I don’t buy the “whoever the Speaker supports” idea of the winner. I think he was a Vallas fan in 2002, but Vallas lost the primary, and he (and we) was stuck with you-know-who. He also did not back Giannoulias originally. So I think arguments and comments here on the candidates will eventually point to the winners. Should be interesting and fun.
Comment by Captain Flume Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:42 am
There’s no question Madigan’s decision was good for the GOP. The Dems won’t be fielding their best lineup if she’s not at the top of the ballot.
Blago, Burris, Stroger, now this: If the GOP can’t gain some ground in 2010, they can rename themselves the Illinois Whigs.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:48 am
Every time one of those democrat ads goes up showing how Kirk votes with bush, it tells conservatives he’s with them. Ironic.
Comment by Shore Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:49 am
My predictions:
Gov
D: Hynes, Quinn
R: All the announced candidates
Sen
D: Alexi, Kennedy
R: Kirk
Lt. Gov
D: Turner, Miller, Hamos
R: Winters, ?
AG
D: Lisa
R: Irrelevent
Tres:
D: Franks, J. Bradley, R. Kelly (ha)
R: ?
Comptroller:
D: Whoever from the above mentioned candidates decides that they are in over their heads
R: JBT
Comment by Johnnyc Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:57 am
Shore, I suggest you compare the number of regular Democratic voters to the number of regular Republican voters in Illinois.
And conservatives already know about those votes but are still raising cain over his votes against guns, for stem cell research and for the environment.
It’s usually a lot harder to motivate someone to vote if they’re holding their nose.
Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 10:58 am
In the wake of Lisa’s announcement, I think predictions are folly. But, since we’re living in fantasyland…
Hynes takes on Quinn for governor; Preckwinkle is getting some serious support for Cook Co. Pres., so I don’t think he even looks at that race.
Bond and Seals battle the 10th while Garrett stays put. I think she probably looked forward to a primary against Bond alone, but the calculus changes if Seals gets in. Coulson makes the run on the R side, to try and give the 10th another Kirk-like Republican.
Hamos is done in the House, so she runs for LG, but will face some pretty strong opposition from Turner and possibly some others in the primary.
Anyone who was thinking about Comptroller is now reconsidering because of Judy. Voters are likely to give her a Billy Martin after they chose Rod over her last time.
Open the floodgates for Treasurer. Any Democrat looking to win a general election statewide almost has to step down to that race, as it will be the only one (other than LG) without some seriously clouted candidates.
Comment by Randolph Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:07 am
For illumination, erudition and just plain excitement, nothing in politics can match a crowded louie gov primary.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:13 am
I agree that Rep. Kirk is similar to ex-President Bush. Both of them are too liberal.
JohnnyC, you omitted the best republican U.S. Senate candidate, Dr. Eric Wallace.
Randolph, I agree that State Rep. Coulson will run for Congress. She agrees with Kirk about many issues, and she’s been a legislator since 1997.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:13 am
Garrett’s website still says 1998, which is interesting because I didn’t see sammy sosa in the cubs box score yesterday and haven’t seen monica lewinsky on television for awhile.
Rob, I’m no Rich Miller but I highly doubt we’re going to see next year the kind of democrat enthusiasm to elect alexi giannoulias that we saw last fall for Barack Obama. What’s more, that blago trial won’t help democrats and Kirk won in a district that gave obama the same percent vote roughly 61 percent that he got in the state as a whole.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPIL
Comment by Shore Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:23 am
I predict the Republican party is going to sweep in Illinois.
Comment by Deeda Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:24 am
My Prediction - Obama has given the green light to Alexi for the Senate seat, while Lisa is adding to her resume for a US Supreme Court Seat. A 40-something Supreme Court Nominee can leave an Obama imprint for 40 years.
Comment by Downstater Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:29 am
After more months of delusion and wishful thinking, Dems keep the U.S. Senate seat next year(Obama will guarantee that) and the GOP loses yet another Congressional seat in Illinois as Kirk creates open seat in the 10th. Recall last year the GOP lost two Congressional seats in IL.
The Illinois GOP is all reactive. It isn’t doing what it needs to do to win.
Comment by Just sayin Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:36 am
Quinn, drops the bomb and goes back to LT Gov with the I never wanted to be Gov but did the best I could. Hynes can’t win Gov and he knows it, he goes to Cook County. Vallas/Brady go to the wire for the R-nomination for Governor. Birkett gets a sniff, but loses to Lisa.
BTW a 40 something Supreme Court nominee looks nice on paper, but Lisa lacks the intellect and the pedigree. You cannot posibly read her legal opinions especially in the Blago fallout and think she comes close to having wht it takes. She Stays put and pickes a better time for a different office. The Governor race looks better in 4 years and Durbin has to retire some time.
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:43 am
Am I crazy, or does Cheryle Jackson have a really, really good chance to play the spoiler in the Dem Senate primary?
Comment by Feldman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 11:44 am
McKenna certainly made himself look like a fool. He’s been a Kirk ally for years. Is he going to run against him for the nomination? God knows the conservatives may want an alternative to Kirk, but they’d support Nancy Pelosi before McKenna.
This may be the last straw for McKenna. Now he has moderates and conservatives hating him. Don’t be surprised if some of the central committee members try to can him as chairman.
Give props to the right wingers. Looks like they were right about McKenna.
Comment by E Pluribus Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 12:06 pm
Common Guys…TugBoat Andy McKenna will take the Senate nominee and then make Alan Keyes look good.
Why is no one mentioning TugBoat Annie Topinka?
Where is the Meekster…excuse me Rev. Meekster he will not be happy not being mentioned for anything for over 24 hours
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 12:18 pm
Am I the only one who chuckles every time he reads the “Lisa Madigan is going to the Supreme Court” comments? And am I the only one who finds that meme absolutely absurd? Let me offer these qualifying statements: I like LM, I think LM is smart, I think LM is a good AG, I think LM would have been a good Senator, I think LM will be Gov some day. Now let me creep out onto this limb: Lisa Madigan will never be nominated to the US Supreme Court.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 12:41 pm
I do not see Hynes going for Cook County Board Pres. Remember when his dad Tom ran for Mayor? As I recalled there was a good deal of negative backlash from the African American community. The County Board Pres is viewed as “black” seat and I don’t think the Jr. Hynes wants to play spoiler again.
Comment by silly, silly, just silly Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 12:51 pm
Don’t fall for the McKenna v. Kirk rivalry nonsense.
Those 2 guys have the same handlers. They are all thick as thieves. It’s just another sham. Kirk announces, then McKenna says “I’m stepping aside for this great public servant” - and we’re all supposed to buy it.
It’s a sacrifice created in a vacuum, a scam designed to make McKenna’s upcoming endorsement of Kirk mean something.
Even McKenna is smart enough to know he would have no hope running statewide.
Comment by Just sayin Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:19 pm
mckenna was kirk’s finance chief, they come from the same political organization, he was I am guessing in d.c. to take a look thinking kirk would NOT do it. now that he might, mckenna i’m sure will help raise money.
As I said earlier, there are 3 democrats and not one republican running for the open state rep seat in mckenna’s front yard. After 4 years of running the party he shouldbe able to do better than that.
Comment by Shore Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:26 pm
What’s with the animus toward McKenna? I don’t understand it. Who doesn’t like him, for what reasons? BTW, I’ve never met him as far as I know.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:32 pm
schnorf, the animus began when mckenna said he’d run against peter fitzgerald for senate. fitz bowed out and the right wing has never forgiven the guy. mckenna, that is. they forgave fitz for running away.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:36 pm
Shore…
Obama wasn’t running for prez in 2006 and yet Blago got re-elected.
Ours is a Dem state whether conservatives can admit it or not. Obviously that doesn’t mean only Dems will win a given office, but it does inject some reality into the picture.
And I think the Blago trial will have less of an impact on the race than Republicans are hoping… it was the Dems who put him “on trial” the first time and impeached him after all.
Voters are capable of chewing gum and walking at the same time. Not all Dems are Blago and not all GOPs are George Ryan.
Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:43 pm
Rob, it’s not fair to call this a blue state. It’s a state where people feel blue from how sick they are of the democrats. This is a state where the republican party is in serious rehab. BIG difference. Idaho is a red state. Massachusettes is a blue state. Maryland is a blue state. These are all places where no matter what happens the opposite party has no chance.
Also as for thinking that obama’s seat can’t be touched, Clinton and Gore both saw their seats flip in the 1994 elections, and both had been popular guys who carried their states. Not saying Mark Kirk is Fred Thompson, but there is precedent.
Comment by Shore Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 1:50 pm
If only the repubs had treated fitzgerald right,particularly in D.C., and not given him so much grief he would not have backed out.
now on to my predicitions….
If there is no more budget stalement on July 14th, Hynes does NOT enter the race to become governor.
If there is stalemate he has the perfect segue (sp?) and interject himself by saying how he intends to pay bills. (remember state workers are to get their July 15th pay checks, but after that…)
If hynes waits too long, he loses steam as a reasonable and logical alternative to pat quinn, and make an effective case against him; pat quinn will work, and is working hard, now to counter negative the perceptions of him on the budget issue.
continued stalemate=good for hynes
no more stalemate–moving things forward = good for quinn
Re: Kirk (hope springs eternal)
Mark Kirk will have no republican challengers for U.S. Senate and the democrats attack plan will backfire. If IL GOPers, are smart, and recent past history doesn’t indicate this (read: alan keyes etc) they will not try to run anyone against mark kirk. instead they will psych the democrats out by embracing his “moderate-ism” and rally behind him to ensure that he wins. behind the scenes they will work with him to advance their agenda in D.C. They will have mixed results, but will wisely conclude that senator kirk sounds a lot better than senator kennedy or (God forbid) Senator Giannoulius. According to them they have never liked the sounds of senator durbin and senator obama.
REPUBLICANS PLEASE SUPPORT KIRK, HE IS YOUR ONLY CHANCE FOR THE SENATE. I don’t usually find myself agreeing with Jim “1950s Square for Fare” Edgar, but he’s abosolutely right. Kirk plays well in a general election to moderate democrats, like me, and independents. Rest assured that Rahm Emanuel is shaking in his boots, er ballet slippers, about this.
Cherlye Jackson takes a peek, but does not run. She has no base, and is an unknown outside of the chicago area, and cannot possibly raise enough money to surpass Alexi in time.
Republican gov. candidates:
tough call as to who will win the primary, with so many in the field–it’s a toss up. whomever emerges will not win against Hynes. In order to win against Quinn they need to harp on his cutback amendment and make the public understand that he is in fact responsible for the powerful mike madigan, and harp on his insistence on a tax increase while giving tax payers nothing in exchange, and his flip–flops (one of the most serious being from that of a taxpayer /good government advocate to a tax and spend and blago’s best friend in 2006 etc). hey do that in a clear and concise way (KISSS keep it simple stupid and strong) and a republican just might beat him in a general, should quinn be the dem nominee.
Tom Dart decides not to run for cook county board president because, like lisa, he really loves the jobs, for now. But more importantly he really has an unprecedented opportunity to continue to shine in and write his own ticket on the things he tackles. In 2014 look for him to make a serious and successful move to AG or Gov (btw.. the late and great John Callaway predicted this much when he recently interviewed Dart, so this is from his astute crystal ball too)
I cannot believe that Peraica isn’t challenging for the repubs. So, in that case I predict that a democrat will win the county board presidency. If Danny Davis gets into this, Todd certainly can’t and won’t win, but neither will Davis. Laying odds… toni looks like the “it” girl, for now.
Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 2:35 pm
Dan Hynes for Governor
Hamos for LG
Treasurer Wide open
Comptroller Wide Open
Alexi G - Senate I Don’t think Kennedy will be able to beat him. Burris will be an also-ran regardless of his opponents.
Cook County Board President - Probably Preckwinkle. However the CCB looks to be wide open much like the Congressional primary to succeed Emmanuel. Almost anyone could win except Stroger.
Republicans have a reasonable shot at winning both the Governor’s mansion - if they nominate someone other than a social conservative - and the U.S. Senate seat if Kirk wins the nomination.
Comment by Captain America Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 2:50 pm
I fogot…on the LT. Gov front…
what happended to Linda ChapaLaVia? She expressed early interest in that office. If she’s still interrested, she could make things difficult for Hamos in the chicago area and other latino population strong places.
might meeks be interested in the Lt. Gov. to use it as a bully pulpit on certain issues the way quinn did? Meeks could be the education lt. gov.
Please note that I don’t mean “bully pulpit” in a mean way, just a play on Meeks reverandship. In all seriousness Quinn did good things with that office and Illinoisans were served well by him, someone who is so inclined could do likewise .
Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 3:17 pm
Kirk gives up a House seat he was favored to defend to run for a Senate seat that’s a toss up at best. In addition, if a Republican state House member runs for Kirk’s seat, the GOP may lost the state House seat. In other words, a potential loss of two seats for the GOP with no sure pickup of one.
Comment by Reformer Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 3:22 pm
Will Co. Woman, you said, “Mark Kirk will have no republican challengers for U.S. Senate,” but you’re incorrect. At least four Republicans are already in that race.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 3:24 pm
that I haven’ heard of them goes to show why they should not have bothered to enter. who are they by the way?
I can tell you that as a moderate democrat the others will only play to and attract the republican base. Hence anyone other than mark kirk, will lose the senate race.
Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 3:45 pm
Shore, re-read recent non-partisan polling.
–
Reformer, might be more than one GOP state House seat. I’ve heard as many as 3 today alone.
Then again, same goes for the Dem side — esp. state Senate at this point.
Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 4:33 pm
Burris doesn’t have a chance in H*$$.
Comment by this voter will remember Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 4:50 pm
i’m gonna reverse myself a wee bit here..but hey, I’m no flip-flopper!
even if quinn and the GA get a temp budget on July 14th, Hynes should enter the gov’s race immediately on credbility grounds. Quinn’s posturing for the past month has caused a lot of problems for people and has made them suffer unnecessarily, as rodogno suggested that his posturing and refusal to cooperate would.
if Hynes doesn’t get in by next week, then he’s not going to get in.
Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 5:09 pm
WCW, Hynes said he’s taking two weeks to decide.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 5:12 pm
sad, sounds a bit like lisa madigan’s i’ll let you know in 4-6 weeks.
Comment by Will County Woman Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 5:23 pm
Don’t be silly. That’s a big step.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 9, 09 @ 5:31 pm