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The Daily Herald has a pretty good look at the strengths and weaknesses of the various Republican gubernatorial candidates.
The State Journal-Register had one of the better stories on the Eisendrath kick-off.
This Sneed bit is somewhat telling:
Dem gubernatorial hopeful Edwin Eisendrath carried an appropriate totem when he announced his candidacy against incumbent Gov. Blagojevich: a silver bookmark engraved with the Winston Churchill quote, “Never, never, never give up.”
So, instead of a silver spoon, he’s got a silver bookmark?
And Jim Anderson of the Illinois Radio Network sent in this:
I’m trying to figure out the Eisendrath strategy, if there is one.
Where will the money come from? His family has a lot of its own, so this will be the least of his problems. With the SEIU being in big for Rod, maybe the AFL-CIO will go for Edwin — who knows. I think some lakefront liberals will give Edwin some money, but mostly he’ll have to pay out of his own pockets.
But getting in late — on the last day of filing — may actually help. Blair Hull spent zillions on a long campaign that came unglued at the end. Edwin can campaign like a house afire for 13 weeks, and see what it gets him. A candidate who has to raise funds, like Rauschenberger, needs as long a campaign as possible. But for Edwin, the short campaign might help.
Where will the votes come from? Let’s examine the 2002 Democratic primary, recognizing that in 2006, the electorate will be somewhat different, in that some of the 2002 voters have died or moved away, while new voters have moved into the state since then. But I don’t think the characteristics of the Democratic primary electorate have changed much.
Let’s suppose Eisendrath does well with the Vallas voters — 431,000 of them, or 34 percent in 2002. And let’s suppose Rod does well with the people who voted for him in 2002 — 457,000 of them, or 37 percent. That leaves Roland’s 363,000 votes to be fought over, with Rod only having to tie to win.
Here’s my assessment: The Roland voters would probably actually break toward Rod instead of Edwin. However, I think a lot of Rod voters may abandon him. If you look at how he did Downstate in the 2002 primary, he creamed the competition in county after county. I don’t see that happening if this alternative is perceived to be viable, so that has to be Edwin’s strategy: Make himself viable to Downstate Democrats who have fallen out of love with the guv, and hope he gets a good chunk of Paul’s votes.
In my opinion, Rod has solid support to win the Democratic primary in about the 70 percent range, meaning Eisendrath would still get close to 400,000 votes — a lot for a late-starting campaign for a guy with no name recognition, but not nearly enough to beat the Rodster.
UPDATE:And, for your holiday listening pleasure, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, sung to the tune of Folsum Prison Blues. I can’t stop listening. (Via Zorn, who, it turns out, wants to strap people down and extract their blood if they’re even suspected of a DUI.)
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 3:30 pm
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Anderson’s commentary is interesting - but isn’t Liberal Former Chicago Alderman four words that make Eisendrath just a little tough to sell south of, say, Madison St.
Comment by Mohammad Wong Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:02 pm
Jim Anderson has a compelling argument. It spells out the difficulty of unseating an incumbent office holder, regardless of title. Although his popularity numbers are horrendously low, unseating Governor Blagojevich will be a tough goal to achieve for any challenger, regardless of party. Despite all the griping, how many Democrats are really willing to cede the 2nd floor back to the Republicans? And if Republicans think for a moment that taking back the governor’s chair will be a cakewalk, they are in for a real surprise. In my opinion, although Edwin Eisendrath’s entry into the Democrat primary is an interesting event, about the only result of his candidacy will be to make Rod Blagojevich spend money — oh, he might raise the level of debate a bit, but it simply won’t be enough. I expect the Governor to figuratively pat him on the head and ignore him.
Comment by Common Sense in Illinois Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:06 pm
If Rod wasn’t the incumbent with millions in his war chest, he’d have almost no chance of winning the Primary. He’s better than Taft in OH & Murkowski in AK (I’m surprised he rated as high as he did.), but not by much according to SurveyUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StateGovApproval1205ByNetApproval.htm).
He also has very little support in So. IL in spite of Rep. Jay Hoffman. Like everyone else south of I-80 I’m tired of Chicago politicians running the state & forgetting that Chicago isn’t the state so I’m not thrilled with Eisendrath as the only alternative in the Primary. On the other hand, I’m desperate enough to see where he stands on the issues & consider voting for him. The thought of Topinka on the Nov. ballot with Karl Rove backing her is nauseating. The IL Republican congressmen have already made the state a colony of TX thanks to Mafia Don DeLay. We don’t need Rove controling us as well.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:06 pm
I think Blago is going to do a lot worse than your allowing. Eisendrath doesn’t have to match him dollar-for-dollar.
Blago’s dismal poll showings indicate to me that a lot of people have made up their mind about him — he had a shot at it and didn’t measure up any better than the last guy. And that guy is going to jail.
In many ways the electorate can be pretty gullible, and swayed by slick commercials — but in Rodster’s case I don’t see a lot of money helping that much.
It could be a whole lot closer than anybody thinks.
Comment by The Colonel Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:07 pm
PSST…PF, Edwin Eisendrath IS a Chicago Politician.
Comment by Mohammad Wong Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:36 pm
Yes, I know MW. To translate for you: The words mean that this is all we have to work with — as usual. Of the 2 Chicago Politicians, Eisendrath is possibly the lesser of 2 evils.
Either way, Chicago gets the representation. IL gets taxation.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 4:47 pm
That is such a load — the old canard about Chicago paying low state taxes and receiving all of the state’s services. It is utter nonsense. I have yet to see it proven.
Comment by Mohammad Wong Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 5:06 pm
Glad to see that comment from you! When the next round of state terms end, it means that a Democrat (not from a political oligarchy or a millionaire lawyer) from Central or So. IL will have the support of the Chicago Political Machine in the Primary.
Maybe then IL voters won’t have to worry about the only Party choices being as questionable as Rod & Eisendrath. That way IL will remain solidly Blue.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 5:45 pm
I’ve got to admit I’m sincerely impressed with how focused and on-message Eisendrath is. I wish the Republican candidates were as disciplined.
He obviously understands the media and understands how to get his message across. And, he’s got a great message. If the quotes I’ve seen are typical, he’s got a knack for hitting the ball out of the park every time it’s pitched. It may be that he’s enjoying a bit of a “honeymoom” right now with the media who are dying for someone to take on Blagojevich. But, his quotes are still impressive.
I know he’s got a major uphill battle and “Former Chicago Alderman” isn’t the best resume downstate. But, I had pretty much figured he’d lose 60-40. Now, I’m not so sure.
Comment by Old Elephant Tuesday, Dec 20, 05 @ 9:46 pm
I am not sure what your second set of comments mean, PF. I have and of course would vote for downstaters without hesitation. You know, 1998 wasn’t THAT long ago — and people up here worked pretty hard for Glenn Poshard.
Here’s another secret — I’ve voted for Republicans too (and don’t let them off the hook - only Brady passes your purity test this year).
Anyone hear the round table on WBEZ yesterday? Pretty good. Resounding conclusion was EE has no chance — other than possibly helping the GOP better their chances at recapturing the mansion. And JBT would be the consensus choice of the “old guard.” Hardly a platform from which to preach reform.
Comment by Mohammad Wong Wednesday, Dec 21, 05 @ 10:26 am