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* From today’s Tribune poll narrative…
Nearly 6 in 10 voters in the latest survey said the [ethics reform] measures enacted by lawmakers and Quinn would have little or no effect on curbing corruption in Illinois, while roughly a third of voters said such measures would have at least some impact.
The actual poll question, which is not published online…
The governor and the legislature recently enacted tougher state government ethics reform measures to curb political corruption. How likely will these reform measures eliminate political corruption?
5 very
30 somewhat
30 not too
30 not likely at all
The Tribune’s pollster did not ask whether the bills would “curb” political corruption, as the narrative claims. The pollster asked whether the bills would “eliminate” political corruption.
No law will ever eliminate political corruption. Frankly, I’m amazed that 35 percent would think any legislation would completely do away with corruption.
But, it’s almost certain that the Tribune editorial page will use this ridiculous polling result to bash the GA again and again.
* Back to the narrative…
At the same time, 3 out of 4 voters favor term limits for statewide elected officials and want to see the same applied to the leadership positions in the state Senate and House, the poll showed.
That’s no surprise. Other polls have shown similar support.
But the pollster told respondents that statewide officials can “serve as many four-year terms as they like,” as if there was no such thing as elections.
Sheesh.
Respondents were told that legislative leaders “can also serve as long as they like.” Former House GOP Leader Lee Daniels might not agree with that one.
* And now for a different Tribune poll story today…
Illinois voters are ambivalent about the job Gov. Pat Quinn has done in his first seven months, even as he prepares to seek a full term in next year’s election, a Tribune/WGN poll found. […]
The statewide poll of 700 registered voters found 39 percent approved of the job he has done since then, while 26 percent disapproved and 35 percent had no opinion. The telephone poll, conducted Aug. 27-31 by Market Shares Corp., has a 4 percentage point margin of error. […]
Almost half of Democrats, 47 percent, approved of the job Quinn has done while 19 percent disapproved. Another 34 percent had no opinion.
They ought to have given the MoE for that smaller sample size. It would’ve been quite high.
The same MoE point applies to the Trib’s story this week about Todd Stroger’s low support among African-Americans. Stroger’s campaign claims the Tribune pollster surveyed just 81 registered African-American voters to come up with this result…
Only about 1 in 5 African-American voters polled approve of the job Stroger is doing or want to see him re-elected, while more than half oppose him.
* By the way, the Dan Hynes gubernatorial campaign has now released a couple of their own polling questions from last month. The poll was conducted August 19-23 of 800 likely Democratic primary voters.
Pat Quinn job approval among Dems…
Excellent 8
Good 37
Only fair 42
Poor 8
I’ve said for months that Quinn’s approval rating is centered in the mushy middle. People just don’t have a hard opinion of him.
The Pat Quinn reelect numbers among Democrats show much the same…
Vote to reelect Pat Quinn 27
Consider someone else 45
Definitely vote for someone else 18
Don’t know 10
They’re not sold on Quinn yet.
* Related…
* Cook County Board President Todd Stroger asks committeemen to slate him for re-election - Committeemen likely to decide on an open primary
* Democratic Leaders Continue Endorsement Talks
* Cook Dems slate candidates, pass on County Board president
* Democrats still debating whether to back Todd Stroger - Leaders slate other races, but choice for Cook County Board president still up in the air
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 10:03 am
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The language of the poll is a joke.
The Tribune is perpetuating the myth of citizens as victims. People love to be victims.
How about a question like: If only about 25% of the voting-age citizens participate in elections, do the other 75% have a beef as to how lousy things are?
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 10:10 am
Tribune polls are a joke. Its frustrating that they are relaying on them to fill space. They’ve used one poll for about a week and a half’s worth of headlines.
Dan Hynes’ numbers aren’t good. People may not be sold on Pat Quinn but its not good that only 18% are definately voting for someone else when Dan has been an announced candidate for a month and the Gov talked about raising taxes for 1/2 the year.
I would like to see if they release head to head numbers. I would imagine they are along the same lines of what the Governor released last week. Bad poll numbers would explain Hynes’ desperation and grasping at straws the last weeks.
The Burr Oak thing isn’t going away. He has no real answer for why his office had 12 inspectors visit and nothing happened. This won’t sit well at all with African American voters, no matter how many times he points out (boringly) “the limitations of statutory authority”
Comment by Johnnyc Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 10:32 am
Rich,
Look at this from the Daily Herald today. Page 27.
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=320462
Comment by Boscobud Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 10:40 am
My sense is that people certainly do not love Quinn, but that they are willing to give him his own shot at a full term. He hasn’t done anything to win their vote, or lose their vote. Given that he is the effective incumbent, I think that would make it hard for Hynes to dump him in the primary, especially seeing that 47% approval rate from Dems.
Comment by Niles Township Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 10:56 am
The majority of voters are willing to give Quinn a break. It will be Hynes’ job to convince them otherwise. It will be Quinn’s job to keep voters willing. It is easier for Quinn than it is for Hynes. Hynes cannot beat Quinn on charisma. He cannot beat Quinn on leadership. Hynes has to go after Quinn solely on politics, scaring his party into believing that Quinn can’t beat the GOP candidate.
It is the GOP’s job to do what it does best, screw up and look like a bunch of losers. Then after the Primary, go after Quinn with the rocks given to them by eight years of corrupted, bankrupted, and incompetent Democratic rule.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 12:21 pm
I agree that Hynes’ campaign has been lackluster so far but I would hardly call Quinn an effective incumbent. And I certainly don’t want to give Quinn a shot at full term just because he’s the accidental governor–not based on his performance
so far. And does Hynes really want the job? I wonder. Losing candidates can sell that name recognition for big bucks in the private marketplace.
The best thing for all those citizens who moan about Illinois corruption would be a hard fought primary within both parties and a hard-fought general with multiple change agendas presented in a coherent fashion by the candidates. Like that’s going to happen.
The worst thing would be another four years of the Blago administration with Quinn on top–what we’ve got now, in other words. Quinn’s claims to be a change agent are vastly overstated. He is the anti-change agent with respect to to the bureaucracy and even the legislature. But he has already fooled quite a few people on the change part.
Comment by cassandra Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 12:21 pm
Cassandra, based on his rollout last week it’s doubtful that Hynes really wants the job. IMO walking out on reporters after taking only a few questions was bad form, and showed that his heart really is not in this. Besides, his rollouts (Chicago and Springfield) could have been done a lot better. Did he learn nothing from running against Obama in ‘04? Did he learn nothing from watching Obama run for President in ‘08?
Hynes is young and with all of the problems that the state is facing, it is understandable if he has decided that he really doesn’t want to deal with it. He would probably do well in the private sector. His children are young and he probably wants to enjoy spending time with them as they grow.
But Cassandra, don’t despair. There’s good news! I don’t know what your political views are, but please keep in mind that Illinois has an open primary. If you just can’t stomach voting for Quinn, and who could really blame you, you can vote for one of the Republicans. IMHO, the two to watch at that point are Brady and Dillard. Either would certainly be an improvement over Quinn, and it seems that both are actually interested in being Governor.
Comment by Okay Then... Friday, Sep 11, 09 @ 3:23 pm