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Washington Post columnist David Broder wrote a column this week about six governor’s races to watch. Illinois was one of them.
But, at the risk of being contrarian, let me suggest that the most significant results of 2006 will not involve the Senate or House but instead will be found in six Midwest governors’ races.
The campaigns in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin will tell us more about the direction of the country and the shape of the 2008 presidential battleground than any of the battles for Capitol Hill — where incumbency advantages in both money and gerrymandering are likely to skew the results.
Governors are closer to their constituents than most senators or representatives, and they exert more influence on presidential politics than their federal counterparts.
Republicans are likely to consolidate their current strength among governors across the South from Florida through Texas. Democrats are poised to solidify their grip on the state capitols in the Northeast, with strong candidates available to challenge in New York and Massachusetts, where Republican incumbents are retiring.
But the Midwest is a real battleground, with one open seat in each party and three Democrats and a Republican facing tough reelection battles.
And this is what he wrote about Illinois.
Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich has accumulated a huge campaign war chest but also a slew of investigations as he bids for a second term. The weakened Republican establishment has rallied behind state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, but she has opposition from state Sen. Bill Brady, securities executive Jim Oberweis and Ron Gidwitz, a businessman-philanthropist.
Your thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 7:30 am
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I think this is what Mr. Broder is trying to convey:
If “none of the above” was a legitimate ballot choice in IL, it would win in a landslide.
Comment by 6 Degrees of Separation Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 7:44 am
If he keeps throwing people under the bus that helped put him in he just as well pack his bags now.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 7:51 am
Herr Broder has not factored in the Democratic Primary; Edwin Eisendrath seems to fielding a pretty healthy challenge to the hair-cut in Florsheims and he has a couple of nickles to toss around himself.
Comment by Pat Hickey Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 8:40 am
I agree with “Downstate” that the Governor has fogotten people who helped put him in office. Yesterday DNR had a “good-bye reception” at the building for former Director Joel Brunsvold. It was sad that the new interium director could not wait until after the reception to remove Joel’s name from the building. Also no one from the Governor’s office attended to say a few words but building friends and Joel addressed the employees - it was obvious by those that attended that he will be missed. He has accomplished great things for DNR in such a short time - Sparta’s World Shooting and Recreational Complex, - in the works now, our direct licensing system and - our most impressive, greatly improved Conservation World for the Illinois fair. Joel was always friendly and respectful to ALL DNR employees even during stressful times of budget cuts and employee layoffs. He served us well and we are proud to have known him. It is too bad the Governor, his office and the interium director do not have the “class” to honor him for bringing us through three difficult years for DNR and I am sure it was a extremely trying time for Joel. I was one of the skeptical employees when Brunsvold was appointed but quickly came to realize how fortunate we were that he was the one to follow Manning. Thanks Joel Brunsvold - we will miss you and wish you well! It is a great loss for our state and a great loss for an unappreciative Governor. We have big shoes to fill now!
Comment by No Class Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 10:55 am
Sorry NO CLASS but the guys out in the parks felt that Joel was just a face.All of the decisions are being made by Mayville.Another point the Sparta deal was started under Ryan while Manning was in charge.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 11:06 am
I like David Broder, and he as usual, is being insightful regarding the Midwest’s role in determining a political direction within the US. Illinois is on the edge of the red/blue divide, and Broder includes our state in his perspective.
He describes two different kinds of Midwestern states however. Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin have been moving towards the Republican Party over the past ten years. These states have had an independant political streak during the 20th Century, and with their Lutheran/German voter stock, reflect a conservative economic belief, stoic family values, yet with an activist, liberal socialist bent. What has kept Wisconsin and Minnesota in the Democratic camp during 2004, were Madison and Minneapolis. As the northern WI/MN communities become increasingly Republican, a tipping point is being reached in both states toward a Republican future. So, not surprisingly, both governorships will end up in Republican hands, as will Iowa’s this year.
The other Midwestern states, including ours, has a large blue region, (Chicago and Detroit), surrounded by a sea of red. Illinois has been spared a move toward a Republican future, due to the fact that Chicagoland overlaps into Indiana. So, suburbanites in southeastern Chicagoland are not in Illinois to sway Illinois elections towards the Republican party. If Northwestern Indiana voters were included in Illinois, you would be seeing a similar movement toward the Republican Party as you are seeing in IA, WI, and MN. But they are not - much to the benefit of Illinois Democrats.
What will knock off the current Illinois Democratic governor is personal problems. Illinois is still a dependable blue state, yet since 2002, has had an inept governor. Like Michigan’s Stabenow, Blagojevich has proven the old fashioned case that a crummy governor doesn’t get re-elected.
Bottom line: IA, WI, MN, and OH will end up with Republican governors due to the political trend within our culture, and IL and MI can see a Republican switch, but for only a few terms, as these states are still solidly blue, and are only voting out Democratic disappointments.
VanillaMan
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 11:20 am
Broder?!? Talk about warmed over conventional wisdom. How is it he has a national gig and Rich has to rub shoulders with the likes of us??
Comment by HappyToaster Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 11:21 am
Vanilla - the “Republican” bastions of Gary, Hammond and East Chicago would push our state to the GOP if included? Huh? Never mind the fact that Kerry improved by 30K votes in Dupage over Gore and that Bush only won Lake by 4000. Illinois’ blue hue is not due to just Cook. The Dem trend is growing with the concentration of population in the NE and SW Illinois.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 11:35 am
It sounds as if you have a personal problem with Tony Mayville, and yes he is the DNR employee directly responsible for the parks and their operations but he must report to whomever is the director. You are totally misinformed about Sparta. It was never a Ryan/Manning project. Manning did goods things at DNR but had nothing to do with the Sparta complex or IDNR being choosen as the site for the Amateur Trapshooting Association’s Grand American that is scheduled for August. That event was previously held in Ohio for 81 years and Illinois won out over many states interested in holding this prized competition.
Comment by No Class Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 12:06 pm
What century are you living in?
Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, East St. Louis are history. People are moving out, and no one is moving in. They are already ghost towns.
For the past ten years, the boom suburbs are Dyer, Merrillville, Sherrillville and surrounding area. These NW Indiana towns have been the recipients of growing ex-Illinois families. These voters are not democratic and often leave Illinois due to taxes. Without the Indiana border cutting off these boom towns from Illinois, these voters would be changing Illinois politics.
Its 2006, not 1956.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 12:31 pm
The increasing “blueness” within the collar counies is increasingly indistinguishable from the RINO red of all but the most conservative DuPagers. They look after their own suburban interests first. They are not Gold Coast, Englewood, Roseland, or Rogers Park democrats. And many are not likely to vote for a governor who they perceive gives them short shrift.
Comment by 6 Degrees of Separation Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 12:51 pm
NO CLASS I don’t know how long you been at IDNR but I have 18 years in and Mayville is the LIASON OFFICER for the governor over IDNR.Also the summer before Blago was elected Sparta was proposed.I suspect you are pbobably one of the Blago hire ins.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 1:19 pm
I forgot to add that Mayville’s true title is DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF DIRECTOR.Or in layman terms a political hack.Oh I personal feel that Joel could of done much more if he would of had a little freer rein.Hey shouldn’t you be working?That’s not a state computer is it?
Comment by DOWNSTATE Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 1:25 pm
Let’s get back to the topic at hand please. Thanks.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 1:46 pm
DOWNSTATE, Take your animosity out on Mayville with whom you seem to have a big problem - and thats fine, but don’t tell me Joel Brunsvold was not the director. He is a very capable person who along with State Representative Dan Reitz are the two people responsible for Sparta. Director Brunsvold sponsored DNR legislation the 20 plus years he served in the General Assembly. He was the best friend DNR ever had in the House now and during Manning’s tenure. I am sure Manning would attest to that fact. Read or speak with any outdoors columnist in the state(there have been many articles lately) and they will tell you who is responsible for Sparta - they credit Director Brunsvold. Many ideas are proposed but someone has to have the know how and influencee to get it done. Yes I agree Joel could have done more if his hands were not tied by the Governor’s office and budget restrants but Joel was not and never would be controlled by Tony Mayville and Tony is not a liaison to the Governor. You are giving Mayville much more credit that is due him. Whatever Mayville did or did to you was his own decision. I again state that I was skeptical when Brunsvold came to DNR but I came to respect him as our Director. I am not stupid, I am not on a state computer - I am enjoying a three day holiday before the long winter is over.
Comment by No Class Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 2:10 pm
Let me take it one step past Broder, it’s not the midwest that’s important; it’s Illinois in particular and the test is:
1) Can the Democrats come up with a viable position on National Security, and allow them to talk about the “value” issues without looking like radical secularists, and
2) can the Republicans not commit sucide over conservative social values.
So it’s not just the Governor’s race, but also the 6th district in particular….
Illinois special because we haven’t gone with the National Trend and the test is are we a fluke, or an example of where new trends can start.
Off the top of the head for Friday afternoon….
Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 3:59 pm
Broder is filling up space.
The fate of Rod Blagojevich is hardly a bellweather for Dem-GOP politics.
To state the obvious, tons of Dems would be fine with Blagojevich losing.
The bellweather races will be down ballot, but Broder is too important to spend time getting into obscure state leg races.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 5:33 pm
Bah, it’s going to be a terrible year for the GOP. Abramoff, DeLay, Ney, Cunningham, Taft will all drag down local and national prospects. In Ohio, I would shocked to witness a Republican elected governor, and Michigan is no different. Blago is only challengable because of his own stupidity. Honestly, Indiana and Missouri are the only real “midwestern” states that are solidly Republican, and it won’t take much for Governor Blunt to screw up and get voted out if someone like Mayor Slay or a KC guy.
Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 6:22 pm
While Broder may have stumbled across some facts re Blagojevich, generally he can’t find his posterior with both hands. If you have any doubts, check out the Daily Howler - http://www.dailyhowler.com - Broder is wrong almost as much as Russert … .
Comment by Smitty Irving Friday, Jan 6, 06 @ 9:52 pm
Team Sleep,
Mayor Slay won’t run for Governor, he’s having too much fun being Mayor of St. Louis. However, don’t be suprised if you see a Carnahan on the ballot in 08.
Comment by MDPD 50 Saturday, Jan 7, 06 @ 11:04 am
Attempts to turn the Illinois gubernatorial race into a national political bellwether should be resisted.
Whether one approves of Bush’s foreign policies is irrelevant to the question of whether Blagojevich should be re-elected. If you think Bush has betrayed the nation’s trust, blame Bush, not the Republicans. The President’s coat-tails should have no effect–whether positive or negative–on the Governor’s re-election bid.
We cast our votes this November as Illinois residents, not as participants in a national straw poll about Bush’s popularity. The national media may think that state politics are only an extension of national politics, but we really should know better.
Comment by Defensor Pacis Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 11:22 pm