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* Back in the Fall of 2007, Democrat Dan Seals was gearing up for his second run for the 10th Congressional District and preparing to face Jay Footlik in the Democratic primary. In October, Seals reported raising $301K, to Footlik’s $193K. Seals went on to win the primary, but lost the general to incumbent Republican Mark Kirk.
Seals is back again this year for his third try, but he’s up against a far more formidable Democratic primary opponent in state Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston). Hamos reported $547K raised in her October filing. But Seals did his usual, raising $303K during the same reporting period.
Bottom line: Seals really needs to step up his game.
* On the Republican side, Dick Green raised $304K, Bob Dold pulled in $258K, state Rep. Beth Coulson reported a mere $128K and Bill Cadigan reported a paltry $37K.
Rep. Coulson is widely believed to be the GOP’s best hope of retaining this seat, but she’d better kick it into high gear pretty darned soon or she may lose this thing.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:01 am
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Hey, Rich, the password from yesterday and today doesn’t work. Are you aware of this? My email version came just fine.
Sorry for this question in comments, I couldn’t find another way to reach you.
Comment by Fan of CapFax Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:06 am
Good call.
Comment by everyday reader Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:07 am
I just tried the password and it worked for me. What browser are you using?
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:09 am
need to keep an eye on Dold. raised a lot of cash and spent very little. he could be the rising sausage out of this group.
Comment by Easy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:18 am
Wish Seals would drop out of the race. If he can only raise $303,000 again in his third try, he is not gaining support. I am surprised Coulson didn’t raise more money.
Comment by Capfax reader Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:23 am
I bet Seals would take a job — any job — in DC to drop out of the race. The Obama people haven’t hesitated to get involved in primaries. I could see that happening here to clear the field for Hamos.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:29 am
There was the recent article about how Giannoulias refunded donations to his state fund while getting identical donations to his federal fund - has anyone looked at Coulson and Hamos?
Their fundraising totals are very similar to their 6/30 cash on hand in their state funds. Coulson had $101K, Hamos had $530K. Not to take away from Hamos’ totals, but she’d been fundraising for nearly a year to run for AG, and if all she’s doing is shifting money…
Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:32 am
===and if all she’s doing is shifting money===
That’s still money raised. It’s not like it magically appeared out of nowhere. And it’s money she can spend in the primary. It exists, it will be spent, Seals has to deal with it.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:35 am
Rich - I agree completely. My point was just that there’s a difference between raising that amount of money over one year versus one quarter. Will she raise another half million by the end of the year, or will it take another year?
And the spin from her campaign is that she only spent 9 weeks fundraising, so they are trying imply that her totals would have been higher had she been actively raising money all quarter.
Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:45 am
If rising sausage means a guy who won’t publicly state his position on abortion, then Dold is that guy.
Comment by 10th District Elephant Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:47 am
Actually, IMHO for Seals on try #3 to raise the same as he did last time in 2007 and in a much worse economy is pretty impressive. Its much better than I would have anticipated. $303k is more than most incumbents did this quarter.
It would also indicate to me that most of his supporters are still with him from the last two cycles, which is critical in the primary.
Hamos will be much tougher than Footlik, but I would argue Seals is just as well known to the Dem voters.
He lost previously in the general, not because voters didn’t like him but because they liked Kirk and Seals couldn’t make a compelling case for them to make a change.
This race is much different. Now, its about the candidates and I don’t know who comes out on top. When was the last poll released?
Since this is Hamos’ first quarter in the race, she probably converted many AG donors (perfectly legal if done right, but does take time and resources. Its not an easy process) and has E-List backing. $520K+ is impressive any way you cut it.
She will need plenty of that cash to overcome ties to Springfield, which, rightly or wrongly, I cannot imagine will help with voters.
Has anyone looked to see how much is out of state money or even outside of the district money for each?
Comment by ChiTownguy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 10:55 am
Hamos has establishment backing which is hard for Dan to overcome. We are 1 month until thanksgiving and holidays and then there’s only 4 week after that until primary. It will be hard for him.
Underwhelming showing by Republicans. In 2000, there was something like 8 million bucks spent on the GOP primary.
Comment by shore Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 11:49 am
She doesn’t even live in the district does she? She jumped race to race seeing whats open, Seals has been a consistent contender- Should that matter.
I agree - showing he has held onto his support for a third race- that is impressive given alot of people would have jumped off an “also ran” ticket. He has a short row to hoe after two races of name recognition. Now just keep him away from silly political stunts like the cheap gas event. It should be interesting- Hamos will need to spend to gain name recognition in a new area I would imagine.
Comment by Inish Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 11:49 am
Shore, I remember the heady days of late 1999 and early 2000. Everyone felt like a millionaire. No one in the 10th GOP primary will spend like they did in 2000.
Comment by 10th District Elephant Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 12:12 pm
Inish, she lives in the district now. http://bit.ly/2YWtPZ. It is my understanding that Seals resides outside the district.
Comment by quicknote Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 12:33 pm
In regards to Fan of CapFax, I was having trouble inputting the password yesterday when I noticed I was accessing the blog through the redirected site from capitolfax.com. When I went directly to thecapitolfaxblog.com I was able to successfully input the password.
Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 12:42 pm
I expect a low turnout. Many 10th C/D voters will be in their Florida homes. For the homebound, who’s going to want to go outside on a Feb 2 to vote in a non-presidential primary? A short (effectively 4 week) campaign window plus low turnout favors incumbents.
Seals is the defacto Democratic incumbent. His name has apperared now on four 10th C/D election ballots. It’s Seals’s to lose.
On the Republican side are Coulson plus 3 generic white guys. The white guys split the wingnut vote and Coulson wins.
Comment by Ela Observer Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 12:51 pm
Dan put out a biographical video which is not only factually inaccurate, it also makes no mention of any work experience or any serious job that he has held since graduating from college. We are really ready to see him go. Its interesting to me that the Obama administration has offered jobs to other folks like duckworth or romanoff in colorado that were failed or that it wanted out of the way. I’m sure they could find a gig for him as some assistant secretary of commerce or director of b.s. in d.c.
I also don’t think it’s fair to say that coulson is the favorite until we get polling out that shows otherwise. Kirk himself was in deep water until late in the 2000 primary when Rep. Porter’s ex-wife came in with an endorsement followed by the former HHS cardinal himself.
Comment by shore Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:00 pm
Dold raised more money from donors than Coulson, Green and Cadigan combined.
Comment by J.R. Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:13 pm
If Dold has so much money, why does he use the same photo from his roach control business on his campaign website?
Comment by Cyrus Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 1:23 pm
He uses the same photo because in Kenilworth, the rules are for the little people.
Comment by 10th District Elephant Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 2:56 pm
Full up front disclosure - I’m not a resident of the tenth and don’t work or support either candidate, but am very interested in this election.
What establishment support does Hamos have that will matter? Does anyone have an established operation that can reliably turn out votes up there? (I’m not disagreeing, I am asking)
Technically, I think she would be the establishment as the state rep.
Living in or out of the district doesn’t matter. Voters don’t care. Rep. Bean won and still lives outside of her district.
Not getting a job from the administration is not a good message for why he won’t win, but Shore, using your argument, maybe they don’t want Dan out of the way?
Comment by ChiTownguy Friday, Oct 16, 09 @ 4:15 pm
Most of Hamos’ money is from outside the district, and a lot of her donors double maxed, so they can’t donate more, and half their donation can’t be spent in the primary race. Also, Seals’ poll numbers are about 4x higher than Hamos’s. She is known in a corner of the district, and he is known all over the district. The guy got over 47% of the vote against one of the most well-funded, well-entrenched incumbents - he is definitely the strongest candidate to win in November.
Comment by 10thdem Saturday, Oct 17, 09 @ 4:59 pm
Kirk had a :30 “Meet Mark Kirk” radio spot on WBBM this morning. On the lines of “Navy veteran, protect patient/doctor relationship, give my fellow soldiers the tools to do the job, make Illinois proud again.”
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 19, 09 @ 7:00 am