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The map below shows party-switching households in DuPage County that went from being Republican to casting at least one Democratic primary ballot in the spring of 2004. Each green dot represents one of those households. Click on the image for a much better view.
There are about 25,000 of those households, according to political consultant Glenn Hodas, who put the map together not long ago.
Hodas, who has a ton of fascinating maps at his website, thinks the reason for the switch, at least partially, was all the campaigning that Barack Obama did in DuPage before the primary.
Feel free to add your own analysis below.
Glenn has done such a good job gathering numbers that the folks who publish the Almanac of Illinois Politics bought much of their data from him for the 2006 edition, rather than spend the money to do it themselves. The edition is at the presses now, by the way, and should be out in a month or so.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 3:09 am
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Wow, this is great stuff Rich! I love it.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 8:02 am
This is probably the most interesting nugget in the blog, and yet it draws the least comments.
It’s interesting that the households are clustered. (Or, at least they look clustered to my eye.) Are these areas with growing Hispanic populations? If so, the trend may be permanent — thanks, Mr. Oberweis — and could spell additional trouble for the GOP.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 12:11 pm
What I believe it does not show is the new voters who moved from the city or near suburbs, only those who voted GOP in the past and then changed. Add those together and it is even more relevant.
Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 1:08 pm
The reason for the change in 2004 is the fact that many Republicans were very upset with the party and decided to pick up democratic ballots. This is more than a dupage county issue. My mother, who has been a life-long republican and lives in Stark County, picked up a dem ballot. Now, she is preparing for a return to the Republican party. She told me, “I tried really hard to be a democrat, but they are worse than the republicans.” So, the shift seems likely to be very temporary. Voters were fed up, voted dem, and now have either come back to the Republican party, or have lost all faith in politics. But having faith in politics, is the first step to losing faith in politics…
Comment by Lovie's Leather Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 1:27 pm
Lovie, do you really believe those are all folks who took a temporary turn, but are now solidly red again?
Go ahead and continue to tell yourself that.
Comment by Anon. Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 3:18 pm
I have been a registered and voting Republican all my life.I know many others that done what I done and that was run from the party because of the name of Ryan.We voted Democrat.Now seeing that this guy makes Ryan look like a shoplifter we are comig back to vote Republican no matter who it is.I think this election is going to be a fooler so don’t place to many bets.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 3:55 pm
Rich I enjoy your commentary but please!!! The switching was due to the supernova rise of Barak Obama in 2004. Now that Obama has become another ineffective Washington Senator, and therefore is not on the ticket in 2006 it will settle back to normal. No one will be able to help lightweights such as Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth now.
Comment by ObamaOverrated Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 3:57 pm
Downstate I agree. I wonder if the Blagoevich administration has sent out feelers yet to John “Quarters” Boyle and Donald Tomzack for future employment? Maybe they can get references from Rahm “Hired Trucks Scandal” Emanuel!!
Comment by ObamaOverrated Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 4:01 pm
Rich I also enjoy your stints on Chicago Tonight and Skyline and have wondered why you avoid the topics of Emanuel and Jan Shakowsky. Rahm is Daley’s Puppet but claims to be innocent of City Hall Scandal’s while attacking GOP ethics. Schakowky’s husband Robert Craemer pleaded guilty to Federal Check Kiting after months of Congresswoman Jan shouting he was set up by the GOP. Is John Kass the only Chicago writer to have backbone in this area?? We count on you Rich.
Comment by ObamaOverrated Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 4:10 pm
OO - How true. Creamer pleading guilty Jan thinking it is due to the GOP. FORGET THE FACT THAT HE BROKE THE LAW!!!!!!
Comment by Mr. Smith Monday, Jan 9, 06 @ 8:26 pm
The analysis is half way there. Now need to show those that party-switched households in DuPage County that went from being Democrat to casting at least one Republican primary ballot in the spring of 2004. Then net out the difference to show the total net switches
Comment by paul fichtner Tuesday, Jan 10, 06 @ 3:07 pm
The switching had nothing to do with Obama, his star didn’t really shine until after the primary and the DNC in which he spoke. This map shows people who voted R in the past and pulled a D ballot…why are we ignoring the big fact here…it was a presidential election…and many were/are unhappy about the war..that was probably the biggest reason you see this…it’s not what the earlier poster said was hispanics voting, he’s wrong on that.
Comment by Do Page Wednesday, Jan 11, 06 @ 2:34 pm