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* We’ve seen some pretty divergent poll results lately. The Tribune had the governor’s race as a five-point game. But Rasmussen has published its latest gubernatorial poll, and they’re looking at a total blowout. Earlier Rasmussen results are in parentheses…
Brady: 45% [46%, 48%, 44%, 43%, 47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 30% [37%, 35%, 37%, 40%, 36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Whitney: 9% [N/A]
Some Other Candidate 6% [6%, 6%, 11%, 9%, 8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 11% [11%, 12%, 9%, 8%, 10% 11%, 10%, 9%]
The result including leaners is probably more important…
Brady: 50% [49%]
Quinn: 37% [41%]
Whitney: 4% [N/A]
Some Other Candidate 7% [3%]
Not sure 3% [7%]
Considering that Scott Lee Cohen is saying he’ll spend as much as $6 million on this race, Rasmussen really ought to be including the guy.
* From the pollster…
Brady earns support from 93% of Republicans, while just 66% of Democrats favor Quinn. Whitney captures four percent (4%) of Democrats and eight percent (8%) of voters not affiliated with either party. Brady leads Quinn by better than two-to-one among unaffiliateds.
Brady is viewed favorably by 56% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 35%.
For Quinn, favorables are 43% and unfavorables are 53%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) have a favorable opinion of Whitney, an attorney and frequent candidate, while 32% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don’t know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters in the state say they have voted for an independent candidate in past elections, while 41% have not. Still, 43% say they are less likely to vote for an independent in this election. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say they are more likely to pull the trigger for an independent on Election Day, and another 25% say the likelihood is about the same as in past elections.
Just 35% approve of the job being done by Quinn, who took over as governor last year after Rod Blogojevich’s impeachment. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove of Quinn’s job performance.
Horrible news for Quinn.
* Speaking of Scott Lee Cohen…
After listening to Cohen, I think he’s actually running somewhere to the right of Republican nominee Bill Brady, which means he could steal away GOP votes, too, assuming voters have any idea who he is — beyond the helpful image of the guy who holds job fairs.
Unlike Brady or Quinn, Cohen has taken the Illinois Taxpayer Protection Pledge, a strict no-tax-increase promise demanded by Jim Tobin’s Tax Accountability group. Cohen is expecting the conservative group’s endorsement.
“Brady still wants to tax people, I don’t care what he says in his commercials,” said Cohen, who argues that the key to reviving Illinois’ economy is to cut taxes and ease regulations on business.
Most of Cohen’s rhetoric sounds like it’s right out of the old Republican playbook.
Maybe so, but he’s spending much of his time courting minority voters. You can follow some of his movements on Twitter to see for yourself. Also, he’s involving himself in the 17th Ward campaign on behalf of a challenger.
* Even Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is trying to appear conservative these days. From a recent op-ed…
Let’s be candid. If you identify yourself as a conservative, your first inclination will probably be to vote for Republican candidate Bill Brady in the Illinois governor’s race. I understand that. He covers some of the basic conservative talking points: cutting spending, holding the line on taxes, “pro-life,” pro-Second Amendment, pro-business.
That’s the rhetoric. Now let’s look at the substance of his positions and see how they compare with my own.
* Related and a campaign roundup…
* Defiant Cohen poses threat to both Quinn, Brady in governor’s race
* Candidates send mixed messages on gambling
* Not much detail from candidates on fixing budget crisis
* Quinn’s campaign faces problems of his own making
* 8th Dist. hopefuls share stances on immigration
* Bob Dold’s new TV ads
* McQueary: The DINO in the 81st House race
* State senate candidate refutes Grayslake trustee’s accusation
* Local, state races could alter face of government
* Race, politics and power
* Race for Cook Co. chief judge gets heated
* Combatants await verdict of fellow judges on new chief
* Erickson: GOP’s rising stars foresee openings
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:37 am
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Cohen needs to take the tea party mantle if he wants to damage Brady. I thought that Giddy has embraced them somewhat.
Rich, are you beginning to take Cohen seriously?
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:40 am
Wumpus, I’ve taken him seriously ever since he got on the ballot.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:42 am
Let me clarify a bit. I take his candidacy seriously. I don’t take him seriously.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:43 am
Could someone who has better access to caffeine than I do please correlate Rasmussen’s time in the field — late August — with Quinn’s commercials? In other words, what was the message that wasn’t working? And what is the hope that the current message will turn it around? Also, what ad did Brady have up during that time period?
Comment by soccermom Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:46 am
All of those people (like Jim Edgar) who said a conservative couldn’t win statewide in Illinois must be awfully stuffed from eating crow about now.
The Religious Right is going to do the Church Lady’s “superior dance” for four straight years after Brady wins. Enjoy.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:47 am
Quinn’s down a couple of scores halfway through the fourth quarter. Or six back of the division. Not impossible to overcome, but you need some help from your opponent and the clock (or calendar) is not your friend.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:54 am
wordslinger, when is the last time a sitting governor overcame an average 7-9 point deficit less than two months out? Not just in Illinois. Anywhere.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:00 pm
I think the favorability numbers are the most interesting thing here. A lot of Dems have held on to hope by saying ‘once people learn more about Brady, he’ll be toast.’ That clearly hasn’t panned out. After a few months of negative ads vilifying him, Brady still leads favorability. And, more to my point, there aren’t a lot of people left who have no opinion of him (only 9%, by my calculation). That means Quinn can’t simply “define” Brady in order to keep people from supporting him; he has to “re-define” him, and change people’s opinion, which is much harder to do. The trajectory of this race is getting harder and harder to change. Something really dramatic is going to have to happen for Quinn to recover.
Comment by grand old partisan Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:03 pm
FYI
I saw an SLC Billboard right at about mile-marker 171 on I 55 last week; in what if I remember correctly was just outside Bloomington-(almost)Normal.
I can’t relate exactly what it said because I was in the process of trying to establish a new world land speed record between Springpatch and home; and the billboard itself, as well as much of the Prairie State scenery was not much more than a blurrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:04 pm
So, SLC is going to steal Republican votes because rock-ribbed conservatives are going to vote for a man who, in this calendar year ran as a Chicago Democrat, but now slated as an Independent is morphing to steal a tea party mantle and run to the right of Brady? I really don’t think so.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:05 pm
The Religious Right with be doing the “Suoerior Dance” only until Brqdy is inaugurated. Then he has to govern and that will be less than pretty.
Comment by davE Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Well, if Brady wins and not-Rahm wins the mayoral race that might make Chicago heavyweight business interests a little less nervous. Brady and Rahm would probably make them positively delirious. He looks like a liberal but Emmanuel can deal if he wants to. Anyway, it’s interesting to speculate on the impact of various pairings on the lives of us regular persons.
Comment by cassandra Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Cohen indeed will take votes from both columns…though many more will come from the Governor’s column.
Comment by thom Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Does anyone know why Whitneys numbers go down when leaners are included?
Comment by Been There Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:10 pm
I caught some of SCLs ads on WBBM 780 right after the bears game (don’t know if the ran during the game) after to say not bad… I think he is going to hurt Quinn
Comment by OneMan Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:14 pm
BT, I’m assuming that people are only just flirting with Whitney. When pushed, they revert to form.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:14 pm
And the crosstabs bear this out.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Agree that there is little chance of SLC stealing votes from Republicans who are very content with their nominee. I doubt many moderate GOPers who are not thrilled with Brady would opt for SLC instead.
The bottom line is that Rasmussen has shown pretty consistent numbers in this race for a while now. Even if you think he inflates his model to help Republicans, Brady still has a solid, if not insurmountable lead.
The problem for the Dems is that Quinn is a known quantity. Known and disliked. If Quinn were a no-name who just needed some name ID he could jump right back into this. His challenge is that so many voters have a very strongly negative opinion of his job performance. That is going to be very hard to overcome.
Comment by Adam Smith Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:15 pm
All very interesting…
Comment by Irisheyesrsmilin' Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:21 pm
“The Religious Right with be doing the ‘Suoerior Dance’ only until Brqdy is inaugurated. Then he has to govern and that will be less than pretty.”
No way. 4 straight years. Nonstop. All of your Ned Flanders-like neighbors will be doing the superior dance around the clock until the Rapture takes them away and leaves you behind. And any problems Brady runs into can just be blamed on Blago and Quinn, and Saaattaaan??!!??
Here’s what I’m talking about, approx 6 minutes in, at the end:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw94TwKqH_c&feature=related
Maybe Quinn could borrow something like that to energize his base. God knows he’s gotta do something out of the box. It’s nearly time to stick a fork in Quinn. He’s just about done.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:27 pm
My prediction, that came true, about Daley not running this year is the death knell to Quinn’s already moribund campaign. The troops in Chicago will not be mobilized for the Dems in November, Daley will not work for anyone in more than words.
Quinn should order his toaster now…
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:27 pm
To the point about a conservative winning statewide, in truth a big part of Brady’s lead is based on the “Not-voting-for-Quinn” mantra. Basically people are saying they want someone new.
Comment by A.B. Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:35 pm
{ a big part of Brady’s lead is based on the “Not-voting-for-Quinn” mantra}
In the end I believe that a big part of Brady’s margin of victory will be based on the “not voting for another Chicago politician” mantra, an many of those pulling the Brady lever will be from suburban Cook and the other collar counties; not just down-staters.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:42 pm
I attended the 200th Mexican Independance Day parade on 26th Street yesterday.
I know Quinn, I like Quinn, he is losing. Period.
Quinn could not see beyond the people around him.
At a parade, a politician should engage the crowd.
Quinn looked out of place. I feel sorry for him. He is such a nice guy.
Alexi, looks like a preppi. Better than Quinn but he looked out of place too.
Lisa Madigan ignored the crowd completely.
Brady was with his wife. He was energized and working the crowd. He was moving, he was smiling,
his wife was waving. This guy is going to win.
Scott Lee Cohen had three Marti Gras type 15 feet tall dancing figures. A real crowd pleaser. Cohen was waving but seemed a little nervous. I think he will get a least 10% in the poorer areas. He was well received.
gg
Comment by gg Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:49 pm
How about this part from Rasmussen on the analysis of the results of their polling for Illinois Governor as well:
{moving this race from a Toss-Up to Solid GOP in the Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard}
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:50 pm
The only political campaign signs in DuPage County I have seen so far…SLC. Not a huge number of signs, but just the fact the SLC signs are there in various locations, and remain up, perturbs the heck out of me.
Comment by washedmyhands Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:53 pm
I’ve traveled across Central Illinois in the past two weeks. I have yet to see a Quinn sign, anywhere.
Comment by Downstater Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:00 pm
At this point I dont think that SLC will effect the out come of the election, he will take voters from both Brady and Quinn, but probably more from Quinn. Quite frankly the way that this race looks like going the combined third part and independent vote will probably less than margin of victory.
I dont know if this says anything, I was Decatur yesterday and there were lots of signs for Democrat candidates, including state one such as Alexi, but only one single small yard sign for Quinn.
Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:01 pm
==I’m assuming that people are only just flirting with Whitney==
You might be suprised. Whitney has THE only coherent plan to rescue the state from oblivion. Even if you could figure out the fiscal platforms of the two majors they obviously are doomed to failure. Maybe enough voters will actually pay attention to what each candidate proposes and vote for the best ideas. I know this one will.
If not I guess we just let Madigan continue to run the state right into the toilet.
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:06 pm
There is no sign of a Quinn campaign south of I64 that I can see. Brady signs are everywhere, especially in the lower seven counties. Very few votes there of course. There aren’t even any Quinn signs in Carbondale.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Yard signs don’t vote. Remember that. But I get your points.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:16 pm
I don’t think Quinn’s yard signs are available yet. Might not be the smartest strategy, but explains why you’re not seeing them…
Comment by soccermom Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:25 pm
Rich,
I would ask your experienced opinion. If Scott Lee Cohen was an option in the Rasmussen poll what percentage would he garner at this point. Just curious.
Comment by downstate hack Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:26 pm
actually i find it really odd that there are almost no signs anywhere. i’ve been throughout the state the last few weeks too, and dont see many for anyone. i know this is a bit off topic, but just an observation. regarding the poll, polling seems relatively consistent throughout and the only good news for quinn seems to be that sometimes a poll is closer than before-then of course a poll like this comes out that has to take the wind out of the quinn campaign office.
Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:00 pm
DH, the Trib had him in their poll.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:08 pm
This race is over except for the voting.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:15 pm
VM, please keep your shorts on, it aint over ’til it’s over…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:44 pm
Rich - I viewed the Robert Dold TV ad you posted. He does not seem like a first time candidate. Polished ad with a great message - and an impressive web site too. I’m hearing this one will go down to the wire. Any predictions?
Comment by Anon 7 Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:47 pm
Scroll down.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:48 pm
Not to use talking points, but New Jersey and Virginia - New Jersey especially - are templates for this year’s gubernatorial elections. Illinois is in the center of this storm. Unpopular incumbent who grows more unpopular as I’m typing this. Terrible debt load. One party rule. Real concern over the future of our state. This reads an awful lot like Chris Christie vs. John Corzine. And while it’s happening all over the country, Illinois is a state ripe for takeover at many levels by the oppopsing party. It’s tough to stop that momentum, and such a wide poll can cause even the most loyal party followers from engaging in volunteerism, donations and even voting.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:51 pm
The climate is so terrible in this state that nobody cares what Brady stands for. They only know that he isn’t Blago or Quinn and figure it can’t be any worse. I know they won’t decide this thing, but the downstate numbers are going to be stunning.
I’m beginning to believe Brady will pull this off. If so, it will be an exception, conservatives. You only get elected when there’s a Carol Moseley-Braun or Blago/Quinn.
Comment by LincolnLounger Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 4:28 pm
I heard Brady’s ad on the radio today. Not one thing was said about his own position on any issue. It was all about how bad Quinn is.
The sad part of it is that Quinn is doing such a poor job, Brady doesn’t have to run on his own record. Brady can just cite Quinn’s accomplishments or lack thereof and run on those.
Comment by Aldyth Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 4:29 pm
It’s over for Quinn and that’s what I’m getting from the Democrats down in Southern Illinois. At last week’s Labor Day parade, the local Democratic nad Republican candidates had their float and the GOP had one for Brady, but not a Quinn sign or float in sight. This was in Cambria in Williamson County. Another parade in Democratic-stronghold of Franklin County where the local dems don’t have any opposition, again no signs for Quinn. He’s almost a dirty a word as Obama.
Whether the lack of a float shows a lack of support or a lack of organization, neither one gets you elected.
Comment by Downstate Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:46 pm
I love it. The liberal Republicans are already making excuses for why the conservative (Brady) is doing so much better than the liberal (Mark Kirk).
Huge win for the right wing of the GOP in November. Now we see who voters really want. Guys like Edgar and LincolnLounger have been all wet all along.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:47 pm
The Rasmussen poll has 93% of republicans voting for Brady no one is blaming anyone they are working to get their candidates elected.
Comment by what Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:55 pm
Oh I forgot to add that the poll has a possible error of 4% so that could be 97%.
Comment by what Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:57 pm
Sounds as if the governor’s race will be a blowout. Now the question is how many Democratic candidates down ballot will be hurt by the Quinn debacle?
Comment by Reformer Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 9:56 pm
just sayin - “Huge win for the right wing of the GOP in November. Now we see who voters really want. Guys like Edgar and LincolnLounger have been all wet all along.”
Are you kidding! Brady is lucky and everyone knows it. Bad year for the Dems and an incompetent Governor who is a terrible campaigner. His biggest campaign tactic is to say as little as possible.
Kirk’s problem is not as much his philosophy, as it is his exagerations.
This doesn’t portend a conservative trend in Illinois.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 11:28 pm