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* The setup…
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias hopes to make China an issue in his race for U.S. Senate, a strategy he set into motion Sunday by accusing Republican opponent Mark Kirk of backing policies that benefit China while hurting American workers.
Giannoulias said Kirk, a five-term congressman, has consistently cast votes against cracking down on unfair trade practices by China and backed huge corporations that transfer jobs overseas.
“When you hear Congressman Kirk talk about job creation, he’s talking about jobs he created in China,” Giannoulias said at a news conference.
The Kirk campaign responded by accusing Giannoulias of “wanting to start a trade war” with one of the biggest customers for Illinois companies. Kirk spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said that would endanger thousands of Illinois jobs and $2.5 billion in exports. […]
President Bill Clinton granted “most favored nation” status, for instance, while opponents of the currency and trade bill included Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, now speaker of House.
On other issues, however, Kirk had few allies. He was one of just 15 members of Congress in 2005 to oppose a presidential review if American oil company Unocal reached a sales agreement with a Chinese oil company.
* The Question: Effective or not? Explain.
Also, as always, I’m really not interested in DC talking points or Econ 101, which has destroyed more college minds than all the illegal drugs in the world combined.
* Roundup…
* China getting attention in U.S. Senate race in Ill.
* Teachers back Giannoulias for Senate
* Teachers union backs Giannoulias
* Giannoulias not worried mayor’s race will divert attention from Senate contest
* Giannoulias Not Familiar With Allegations Made in Treasurer’s Race
* Durbin, Giannoulias Meet With Small Business Owners in Galesburg
* Giannoulias, Simon campaign in Decatur at labor event
* Journal-Standard: Burris needs to move on
* The GOP’s secret, successful judicial war
* Rudy Giuliani appearing with Senate candidate Kirk to discuss Chicago gang crime
* Kirk stays on offense in Illinois despite positive ad
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:12 pm
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Which destroyed more minds? Econ 101 or DC talking points?
Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:18 pm
Alexi’s “tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas” line is a canard that’s been discredited since at least 2004.
http://www.factcheck.org/kerry_blames_corporate_tax_code_for_shipping.html
Comment by well Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:20 pm
Ask Jim Oberweis.
Comment by Tom B. Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Linking Trade Policy to a negative impact (there are many arguments to the contrary, especially in Illinois agricultural exports) on jobs is an esoteric exercise which takes a discussion longer than the attention span of most voters. This line of attack will not be a deciding factor in this election.
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Topic is far too difficult for most American’s to understand from a simple set of campaign talking points. This argument is DOA.
Comment by A.B. Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:29 pm
Not a bad approach, I suspect it polls well as an issue.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:30 pm
I can see it being effective. “Helping China hurts American jobs” is an easily digestible soundbite.
I think the fact that it is a much more complex issue than that helps Alexi, contrary to Cincy and A.B.’s contention. Saying “America Good, China Bad, Kirk Bad,” is a lot simpler than explaining why supporting China is actually good for U.S. markets.
Comment by Montrose Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:35 pm
classic case of district versus state values like cap and trade in the primary. kirk’s district is white collar professionals whose companies want access to Chinese markets and customers. Alexi is making a play for blue collar democrats worried about losing their jobs to foreign competition.
This is the kind of issue the media has ignored in their blago coverage and mayor primary speculation that gets to the heart of what this campaign should have been about 7 months ago.
Comment by shore Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:37 pm
Montrose,
The rebuttal ads write themselves:
http://www.siue.edu/ITC/illinois_facts.htm
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:38 pm
If it works it will need to be broken down. Jobs shipped overseas were the beginning tide of this recession. We need jobs here in the US and specifically IL. It is a simple phrase coined a few years ago “It’s the economy stupid!”
Comment by WOW Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:39 pm
According to the Commerce Department Illinois exported just under $2.5 billion in goods TO China in 2009. That’s the third highest amount exported to another country from Illinois businesses. While it’s a far cry from the $12.1 billion exported to Canada, it is a significant amount and represents thousands of jobs here in Illinois. Overall, Illinois exports $41.6 billion in goods to countries the world over.
Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Rudy Giuliani? Kirk thinks this is effective?
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:43 pm
Like I said, this is the sort of debate we needed to have for the last 7 months which the chicago media and the blagojevich trial deprived us of. Blue collar jobs of the past or white collar jobs of the future.
Comment by shore Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:47 pm
===Illinois exported just under $2.5 billion in goods TO China in 2009.===
Good point. However, keep in mind that in 2009 the US imported $296.4 billion of goods from China. Illinois is about 4.2 percent of total US population, so Illinois may have imported about $12 billion from China. That could be more, since we tend to have a higher standard of living than many states.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:48 pm
It is going to be difficult to not use DC talking points on this issue since the issue is a DC talking point.
“On some of the issues Giannoulias raises, Kirk voted the same way as leading Democrats” according to the ST article you quoted from.
i guess things like this happen when DC talking points and DC political strategy infiltrate Illinois politics.
Ask McSweeny how he lost to Bean after the “experts” from DC came in and started running messages no one locally cared about less than 60 days prior to the election. I remember those words very well: “We will MAKE them care about those issues.” The consequence? A guy who was coming close didn’t.
That is why it is an ineffective strategy in my mind. The voters have already decided which issues will sway them this November. China isn’t one of them.
If Alexi is listening to Beltway types, he might as well concede the election today.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:49 pm
*Montrose,
The rebuttal ads write themselves:
http://www.siue.edu/ITC/illinois_facts.htm*
You are going on the assumption that facts trump myth. I wish they did, but too often that is not the case.
Comment by Montrose Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:51 pm
I feel like China ruling the world is 2006-2008 story line–and an over-hyped one at that. No US policy will change the reality that they have a work force willing to work for cheaper in a less regulated environment. US has to accept the fact that we are not going to manufactor the plastic dye casts of the world. We should be more concerned about the High Tech stuff, however. Either way I don’t think America is looking in its collective rear view mirror at China–they just want to get back on the road.
Comment by sing me something new Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:56 pm
Alexi needs to add to this by reminding voters of this Kirk fiasco:
“Isn’t that NICE? A United States Congressman, on foreign soil, telling emissaries from that nation’s government not to trust America.
By the way, what better to way to build trust and confidence in our number one creditor than to tell them not to have trust or confidence in us? There’s a logic in there somewhere, one can be certain.”
Source:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/15/742928/-IL-10:-Is-Mark-Kirk-the-Self-Selected-Economic-Envoy-from-China-to-the-U.S.
Comment by Vole Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 12:58 pm
I think the China link will play well with people worried about their jobs. The economy is a big issue right now. If unemployment were lower, it might be different.
Comment by lakeview Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:00 pm
More effective than the Kirk lying ads. I think most voters already know that a lot of politicians lie, old news.
Giannoulias has been about jobs from the beginning. polls show that is what the American people are concerned most about. So this ad whether or not it is backed up by facts plays to the anti-outsourcing sentiment. So it will be effective.
Comment by Irish Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:00 pm
Effective, IF Giannoulias follows up by reminding voters that Mark Kirk also told Chinese officials to disbelieve U.S. budget figures.
Funny, I don’t remember him doing that when he voted the party line for his pal, George W. Bush, to wreak fiscal havoc.
Comment by Northsider Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:07 pm
How’s does Alexi’s position on China coincide with the recent work by Democrats in St. Clair County to connect Mid-America Airport with China?
More information from the Post-Dispatchhere.
I’m not sure if there’s still really a “competition” between Mid-America and Lambert St. Louis for a chinese “hub,” but it would be interesting to see what Democrat St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark would think about Alexi’s china-bashing.
Comment by Madison County Watcher Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:14 pm
It could be effective if he hammers the point into the ground and relates it to Illinois’ unemployment and loss of manufacturing jobs. If it’s a major campaign theme it could help, however quick pres s releases aren’t going to be effective and this is probably just going to be a blip in the news.
Comment by Ahoy Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:14 pm
This is one of the toughest QOTDs ever. Alexi’s attack may indeed work in a simple soundbite for some voters. And Kirk has some powerfully good come-backs if he thinks Alexi is gaining traction.
But, if this important for Illinois issue is properly and fairly vetted (as in debate questions and editorial board meetings,) it could become interesting. Then we might see which senate candidate has the better grasp–not only of China trade issues, but also other aspects of worldwide export/import and trade balance, as well as the Chicago region’s role as a “world class” economy. Manufacturing, but also agriculture, heavy equipment, and food products, to name only a few, all play into this larger discussion, and I for one would welcome something of substance finally being brought into the campaign.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Alexi wants to (and needs to) talk about jobs. He leads by 14-17 pts on average in polls of voters who consider the economy the number one issue.
This lays the groundwork for a positive campaign about how Alexi saved the Hart Schaffner Marx jobs compared to the attack that Kirk voted 94% of the time with GWB’s economic policies and voted to “send jobs to China.”
If Alexi has the money to make this stick, it will be hugely effective on the downstate dems who may otherwise vote for Kirk.
I also think Alexi will keep pounding on the “Kirk = liar” drum to blunt any negative ads Kirk runs (”there you go again Congressman, ….”)
Kirk will talk about taxes taxes taxes and mob banker and hope that the GOP wave carries him over the top. I think Alexi wins this debate and the election. While close, (and based on nothing but gut feeling) I actually think Alexi wins this by more than people expect.
Comment by Sucka free Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:38 pm
Rich,
I think the $12B number os a bit high, it would represent over a doubling of the imports since 2001. I wish I could find later numbers, but your guess is probably good enough for government work.
I would argue that imported Chinese goods actually helps consumers by providing access to lower cost consumer goods. And our exports to China, especially in the heavy manufacturing and agriculture areas, combined with the lower cost Chinese imports are a big win for Illinois.
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:40 pm
Someone needs to remind the Teachers how well they fared in 1994 with their endorsements- history seems to have a way of repeating itself
Comment by Sue Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:55 pm
This is definitely going to be a repeated issue this election as the Dems look to throw everything they’ve got at the GOP. Already this morning I’ve seen it used twice, in the Michigan gubernatorial race and the Wisconsin senate. I don’t think it’s a real game changer, but it can play a part in a larger strategy that may be effective in the end.
Comment by Anon Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 1:57 pm
Ineffective.
I get my stuff from China.
Like borrowed cash..
I thought trade to China is a good thing
I think this computer has parts from there.
I like Chinese food.
I have never been to China.
I think the only jobs going to China are the ones we do not do anymore.
We owe them a fortune.
I hear they have a great wall.
Did Giannoulias just say that Kirk creates jobs?
We need him to do that here.
If he is Senator he could do that in Illinois.
My vote goes to the guy who is proven to create jobs.
Kirk.
Hey! Isn’t that the 9-11 Mayor?
I heard all about it this weekend.
COOL!
Ineffective
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:06 pm
If one’s most effective complaint is the employment of non-whites it might be time to reconsider one’s decisions.
Comment by Dirt Digger Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:14 pm
I think it’s a little effective, but only if Alexi can tie it more directly to Illinois job woes.
China is a currency manipulator. It keep the yuan artificially low in order to make exports cheap. That also makes imports more expensive, exports like, say John Deere or Caterpillar tractors. If China allowed the yuan to float on the international currency market, we’d almost certainly import less from China and export more to China. Ergo, a fair yuan price would increase US jobs, at least in the short term.
But then neither party is really making this currency thing an issue because a more expensive yuan probably results in fewer US Treasury Bond purchases by the Chinese. Or something. Econ 101 wasn’t my strongest course.
China is still a communist regime, repressive and expansionist. We used to think of countries like China as “our enemies.” Now they are also our creditors. It’s funny how those things work. Imagine if the Soviet Union spent its military budget on T-bills instead of SS-20s. What a different world it would be.
Bottom line: China is a rival. Alexi needs to sharpen the focus and stick it to Kirk over Kirk’s playing footsie with China. A good old-fashioned pinko-commie working in the Pentagon. Steal a page from the GOP for once, Alexi. Hit him harder.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 2:22 pm
The Ad’s effectiveness revolves around whether the charge is believable to the wavering voters Alexi needs to win. In this job environment, my gut tells me it’s an effective charge. However, my brain says what difference Alexi would make in the process because corporate democrats, like Obama’s economic team, will get whatever trade deals cut with or without Alexi. That’s assuming Giannoulias would actually vote for “Pro-American Worker” trade policies, which is doubtful considering he’s such a light weight. “Free Trade” is a myth, but I don’t see Alexi as a myth buster.
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 3:41 pm
I agree with Vole and Northsider that Alexi should have tied it in with Kirk’s comments about not trusting the U.S. A clear tagline like “whose side is he on” reinforced with multiple cases of Kirk siding with China over US, Super Rich over Middle class, etc. As a one off, it doesn’t make a dent in the consciousness.
Comment by Objective Dem Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 6:04 pm
It’s effective because unemployment is so high. Few who have lost their jobs in manufacturing are going to listen to Kirk’s explanations, even if he’s right.
Plus, it’s a “hot button issue” for many Americans who have lost jobs in other areas. Many now believe that because they’ve gone through waveS of unemployment and underemployment, they have no options BUT to buy less expensive products made in China–that are of lesser quality to boot.
They cringe at the phrase “Buy American”, which they once embraced and are feeling very guilty for buying the cheaper products to save a few dollars. They feel like they’re caught in a vicious circle they can no longer get out of.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:05 pm
And they want to blame someone for it.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 13, 10 @ 8:06 pm
Somebody must be peddling a poll. Hare was going off on China in his TV spot, too.
Effective? I doubt it. I don’t hear a lot of people complaining about China in particular, but I’m around people in construction and finance more than manufacturing.
Blaming China is kind of like complaining about the bartender who over-served you and let you run a tab. Who’s the problem?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:10 am