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Question of the day

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* Yesterday, PPP’s poll had Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn by one point, 42-41. Today, the Pollster Who Shall Not Be Named has Brady ahead by eight points, 45-37. The pollster once again omitted Libertarian Lex Green and used “some other candidate” instead. But “other” only received one percent of the vote, which is the same result for Mr. Green in PPP’s poll, so we’ll bust the Rasmussen embargo for today.

* The Question: What’s your own prediction for the final spread between Brady and Quinn?

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:45 pm

Comments

Quinn wins 51 to 49.

Comment by Deep South Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:50 pm
A long night…Quinn by 2%, but maybe more, it is still a life time away from Nov 2nd.

Comment by VoterUSA Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:51 pm
43-39 Brady

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:51 pm
With the polling showing that many of the previous Obama voters are either not admitting they voted for him or are not likely voters, I have to take Brady with a 4 point win.

I think that the Dems see about a 1 -2 point hit on lower than expected voter turn out, which I think will also sweep Kirk into the Senate by about 1.5 points.

Further down the ticket, I don’t imagine a lot of surprises. At this point I think that we are hitting the magic number of undecideds who will not turn out at all.

Comment by A.B. Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:52 pm
Today …

Brady 46, Quinn 43 …

Don’t mess this up Jerry!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:52 pm
Quinn by less than 1%. It will be a couple weeks after election day before it is formally over.

Comment by Montrose Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:52 pm
Quinn by no more than 2%.

Comment by StreetervilleSnookie Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:53 pm
Brady wins… Dem turnout turns out to be lower than anyone expects.

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:54 pm
I will hand it to Brady by less than 5% more like 2 or 3%

Comment by Levois Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Brady 43-40. When the economy’s in the tank, the party in power takes a beating. Same as it ever was.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Brady wins with 48, Quinn follows with 45. Anti-incumbent fever wins the day in Illinois…

Comment by Vote Quimby! Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:55 pm
I’m with Word on this one. We’re gonna get killed statewide.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Brady 46 to 40.

Comment by Molinechuck Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:58 pm
Brady 48-44

This is a turnout election and downstate will come through like they did in the primary

Comment by Matt Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:58 pm
Quinn by 2,500 votes.

Comment by Niles Township Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:58 pm
word-

My thoughts exactly …

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 12:58 pm
Brady 46-43. I don’t feel it in the air yet that we will be able to get all of our dem voters out. And, I am not so sure we want all of them out. A lot of our rank and file are also ticked off. Unless Quinn gets a bigger than expected turn out in black areas he can’t win.

Comment by Been There Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:02 pm
What’s with this wishful thinking for Quinn? Brady: 45-41.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:03 pm
Brady: 47-39

Comment by The truth Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:05 pm
Brady 47, Quinn 44, Cohen 4, Whitney 4, Green 1

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:05 pm
Been There:
You don’t think SEIU and AFSCME will gotv for Quinn? I think that and some unexpected political energy generated by the Mayor’s race are the only things that save Quinn - but only by a nose.

Comment by StreetervilleSnookie Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:06 pm
The last time we did this I said something like Brady 44, Quinn 41. I think it’s closer than that now.

Political Wire used a PPP nugget that showed Brady up 49-44 if no third party candidates are in the race. According to PPP/Goddard, “That suggests the folks going for the minor candidates are folks who really don’t like Quinn but can’t quite bring themselves to support Brady.”

Quinn needs to close positive and give those voters a reason to come to him. If Berrios/Claypool increases turnout in Cook by a few percentage points, that could also make the difference for Quinn.

My new prediction is a tie: 44-44. Don’t expect a victory speech in either camp on November 2. This thing is too close to call.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:07 pm
The movement of the undecideds will break to Brady in the last few days. Remember… CHANGE!

Comment by The truth Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:08 pm
I’m with Montrose. This is very close in the end and Q wins by less than 1%. None of my friends, whether Republican, Democrat, or Independent, want to be like Indiana and Tennessee.

Comment by Mongo Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:08 pm
Brady 43
Quinn 38

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:09 pm
43-38 is I

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Anyone who has Quinn getting over 50% does not fully appreciate the mood in Illinois. Quinn could still win this with less than 50%, but I don’t think that will happen. Brady 48 - Quinn 46.

Comment by Anon 7 Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Quinn by 2. With Clinton coming and Brady’s latest goofs, I think the Dems are coming home.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:14 pm
Quinn by 2. Brady’s Blago allies devastated. Puppies across the Land of Lincoln wag tails with joy.

Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:14 pm
Quinn 46 Brady 43

Comment by We Todd Did Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:17 pm
Brady 48 - Quinn 43 - Cohen 5 - Whitney 4

But if the Cohen and Whitney voters don’t throw away their votes then most will go for Brady.

Comment by OswegoDem Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:17 pm
Brady 45 Quinn 43 Cohen 7 Whitney 4 Green 1. I cant see Brady winning by more 3, for as great as the Brown and Christie campaigns were in simliarly blue states up agnaist dem candidates as unliked as Quinn is here, they only one by 4 and 5 points. Brady’s campaign has not been on the level of theirs.

Comment by Lewis Grad Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:18 pm
Brady 45 and Quinn 43

Comment by Wally Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:21 pm
At lunch today, I had two people express the same opinion to me. THEY CAN’T WAIT for November 2nd to get here, so they can vote.

The race will be over by 9:45 on Tuesday night. Brady 47, Quinn 42.

Comment by Downstater Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:21 pm
StreetervilleSnookie, the unions will have their full GOTV apparatus in motion. And as valuable as that is, I just don’t think we will see the turn out at the level that is needed. Without those GOTV measures Quinn might be less than 40%.

Comment by Been There Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:22 pm
PPP has Quinn negatives at 54%. Latest poll tracker from the recently released poll that has Brady up 43%-37% looks like Quinn negative is over 60%. Given those numbers, I don’t see how Quinn breaks 40 by much. Comes down to what the third parties take away. I think Louis is pretty close with his numbers.

Let’s say :

Brady 46, Quinn 43, Cohen 6, Whitney 4, Green 1

Comment by More Courage Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:22 pm
I agree w/ Niles Twnshp. Repub Gub. primary redux.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:23 pm
We have to be careful with Rasmussen’s numbers. They tend to lean towards Republicans and 538 admits it to. PPP is in my opinion the valid poll. My guess come election day is that it is within 1 or 2 points in either direction

Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:26 pm
Brady by four and a half. Strong Chicago turnout keeps it close as local players try to shore up organizations for February in the New Chicago Political Environment.

Comment by 42nd Ward Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:27 pm
Brady 46 Quinn 44 Others 10

Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Brady 47 Quinn 45 Cohen 5 Whitney 3

Comment by Lord Willing Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:34 pm
46-45, Quinn ekes it out.

Comment by Anonymous ZZZ Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:36 pm
I’m with Montrose-Quinn by a whisker, a delayed declaration of the winner, I’d go further and say maybe a demand for a recount. This is still a blue state, home of a historic sitting President who can still, despite his current poll numbers, bring out a lot of folks who would otherwise likely stay home. Plus Quinn is an Democratic liberal incumbent with all the advantages of incumbency–including lots of taxpayer money to throw at various glitzy projects in the runup to the election. And Quinn’s opponent remains a comparative unknown to Cook and the collars, with conservative social views and little executive experience.

If Quinn wins by a whisker, it will still
be an abysmal showing give the circumstances of this election. He should be way, way ahead.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:37 pm
Just breaking the vote down between the top two, per the question: Brady: 51 Quinn: 49

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:44 pm
I think the race has tightened considerably. My prediction is Brady wins by fewer than 10k votes throughout the state. The margin will be just large enough to avoid a recount but small enough to be a real nailbitter.

Comment by Logical Thinker Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:45 pm
Wish it weren’t so but I fear Brady wins by 3 pts over Quinn.

Comment by justbabs Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:54 pm
Quinn edges out Brady by less than one percent.

Comment by Das Man Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 1:58 pm
think about this election - a couple of results are a given:

brady loses in part because he won’t answer questions

coen polls less than 3 because he’s a fraud w/no program

whitney does better tha 5, because he has a plan and isn’t a liar

and illinois will be in a bigger mess a year from now than now

Comment by Doug Dobmeyer Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:02 pm
Brady wins by 1.5%. Dem turnout a little lower than expected. For a Republican, Brady has a very good field operation at least downstate. This more effecient operation combined with voter anger and a whole new crop of true believer conservatives (i.e. , teapartiers), puts a Right-Winger in the mansion. Holy Smokes!

If the weather is bad in the city, i give brady a 2% victory. However, I saw the 10-day forcast and Sunday before the election right now has descent weather.

I know it is lame to talk about the weather, especially this early, but here is the link:

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USIL0225

For the city, Snow baby snow, snow baby snow.

Comment by cuban pilot Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:06 pm
Brady 45.5%
Quinn 44.5%
Cohen 5%
Whitney 4%
Green 1%

It will be a long night waiting for a winner to be declared. But too many unhappy Dems, even if they do go vote, are going to skip this race or vote for somebody other than Quinn and that will make Brady the “lucky” guy that gets to be Governor.

Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:30 pm
Brady 49%
Quinn 42%
Other 9%

Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:34 pm
Quinn 43 Brady 41.

Comment by Tony Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:35 pm
If the weather is nice, Quinn by one point.
If the weather is bad, Brady by one point.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:45 pm
Heck if I know, and thinking about it gives me heart palpitations. I think it’s going to be one or the other by 1-2 points tops. I think we’re going to be doing some serious drinking/nail biting on the big night, and probably into the morning.

I think Republicans are generally happy with Brady, and are highly motivated and eager to cast their ballots. That may put Brady over the edge. But Dems up in Cook County will be working to gotv like the well-oiled machine they are. So, again…I don’t believe anyone can know until the numbers start coming in.

Comment by lawyerlady Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:45 pm
Its funny how some of the predicted percentages do not add up.

Comment by Tony Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:48 pm
Brady - 48%
Quinn - 40%
Cohen - 6%
Whitney - 4%
All others combined - 2%

Comment by Segatari Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:49 pm
My prediction? Either Brady or Quinn wins, and Illinois voters lose.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Brady in a sqeaker> Quinn’s downfall will be in the black precints of Chicago. Pawnshop Scott gets a larger pct of the black vote than Quinn can afford to lose.
Brady 46 Quinn 45

Comment by ivoted4judy Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:53 pm
quinn 44
brady 43

others split 13

Comment by Belden Ave Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:54 pm
Just a thought! Who’s the state Dem. Chair? Who has a chance to lose (I predict 6 seats)? Does anyone out there think he will let this happen? with his agenda? If so pass the doobie Quinn by 2.

Comment by railrat Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 2:56 pm
And google insight says…..

//www.google.com/insights/search/#q=pat%20quinn%2Cbill%20brady&geo=US-IL&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Brady by a decent margin.

Don’t forget Rich pointed out that had we used the google insight before the primary, we would have seen Bill Brady winning by a nose, as well as PQ winning in a squeaker. Always trust google….they are not evil(ish)

Comment by mongoose Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:08 pm
In the primary, 300K more Dems voted, and we all know that GOP/tea-pots come out more in the primaries then Dems….Absentees are up over 4 years ago…The mayors race, Senate race are getting Dems fired up…you will see a GOTV like never before, starting with Clinton here next week. I stand by my Quinn by 2%, and will not be surprised if it is more.

Comment by VoterUSA Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Also, if the election is close, the loser could be Rich Miller since he would be forced to write and talk about obscure election laws, lawsuits to extend the period for millitary ballots, convicted felon votes, and other odd voting irregularties.

Comment by cuban pilot Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:09 pm
mongoose, the problem is that as people get to know him his numbers drop. So, that might not be a good thing. Just sayin…

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Nutella–as opposed to butter, peanut butter, mayonnaise, and I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter…

Comment by Just The Way It Is One Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:28 pm
Are there any stats on the number of people who have voted early? I’m guessing a good chunk of early votes went to Brady.

Comment by Who Cares Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:34 pm
I know Rich doesn’t want to hear this but Brady by 5pts. The Indiana/ Tenn comment was only ment to be in term of job creation and business climate. They are kicking our b _ _ _s in these states and everyone knows it.

Comment by anon Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 3:53 pm
-anon at 3:53-

I like Brady, and I will vote for Brady. However, I still don’t see how Brady can win by more than 5%. I think he will win, but he wont win “going away.” Regardless of the energy of the right and the incompetence of Quinn, this is such a blue state, with strong unions (or at least stronger than most other states). Further, Brady, is well, Brady. I think Brady will win, but it won’t be by much.

Comment by cuban pilot Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:07 pm
–They are kicking our b _ _ _s in these states and everyone knows it.–

Facts? Lots in the other thread that don’t support your conclusion, but just to repeat the August unemployment numbers:

IL: 9.9%
TN: 9.6%
IN: 9.9%

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:08 pm
It depends who has the best strategy to win this race. My guess, Brady by 2.

Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:12 pm
Who started the “Illinois is a Blue State” fiction, anyway? The folks who needed an excuse for their incompetence after they imported Alan Keyes?

The GOP has won seven of the last nine gubernatorial elections. That’s a killer batting average in any league.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:19 pm
In all my years I have never seen such a get out the vote effort. Technology has made a huge difference.

The Unions and Democrat party are working day and night.

Illinois is a Blue state.

Illinois is the home of President Obama and he is still popular in Illinois.

As the polls get closer the money flows into the campaign.

Incumbency gets Governor Quinn free press as he travels around the state.

As voters find more out about Brady his numbers go down.

Quinn by 4%+

Comment by (618) Democrat Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:22 pm
Brady 46%
Quinn 43%
SLC 6%
Whitney 3%
Green 1%

Comment by RMW Stanford Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:33 pm
Quinn wins with 46% to Brady’s 44 or 45%

– but it is more correct to say that Brady loses, since a more moderate Republican candidate would have won.

Comment by Capitol View Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:33 pm
I see the President will be back in Chicago the weekend before the election. This is not for Quinn, of course. Retaining Obama’s Senate seat is symbolically very very important to the Dems, with 2012 coming up fast. Quinn is just lucky to get on the ride. The Obama folks will try to recreate the excitement of 2008 and they’ll probably succeed to some extent—at least in terms of galvanizing a chunk of Chicago area voters who otherwise wouldn’t have bothered to vote. Another reason why Quinn will win by a whisker despite his really lame performance to date.

Comment by cassandra Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:36 pm
Brady 46
Quinn 40
Cohen 9
Whitey 4
Green 1

Comment by Heartless Libertarian Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:37 pm
—-Who started the “Illinois is a Blue State” fiction, anyway? The folks who needed an excuse for their incompetence after they imported Alan Keyes?—

Man, wordslinger is good. I will use (err, steal) that line.

Anyway, word, Illinois is a blue state, you say “7 of the last 9 gov races,” well I will say that the gop has not won a gov race since 1998 and in that race the real conservative was poshard. Further, edgar is not the republican you would see today (i.e., a “moderate” pro choice type guy).

This is a blue (or, Democrate State). The only way that the gop has this many congressional seats is because madigan doesn’t care about congress and Illinois had the speaker of the house at the time of the last re-districting. Point is, the illinois gop has only had hte house for 2 of the last ???? years (95-97). We have never had a true conservative governor. Point is, this is a liberal state.

Comment by cuban pilot Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 4:47 pm
CP, yet you and I and many others are predicting a Brady victory in this “liberal” state.

I’m still not buying the Liberal/Blue State stuff. I think in a lot of instances the GOP has simply been out-hustled, for the GA and Congress.

Seriously, after Bean beat Phil Crane, the GOP can’t find someone to compete with her in that district?

The bulk of Foster’s district had been GOP since Lincoln, and he replaced the GOP Speaker of the House! Should never have happened.

And what’s the deal (rumors of many, over the years) why a “real” Republican can’t put up a challenge to the Lipinski boys?

I think a lot of it is just excuse-making.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:09 pm
Rich, I’d like to nominate for QOTD, “Which of the statewide candidates (all races) who are neither Dems nor Republicans will get the highest, second highest and third highest percentage of the vote?”

There are conceivably many choices because of the high number of candidates.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:14 pm
I think the Libertarian candidate is good for 1-2.5%. Whitney and Cohen are each good for 5-10%.

Quinn and Brady will split the rest pretty equally with less that 1.5% separating them.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:20 pm
Really? I am Republican and I think Quinn, without a doubt. The GOP tends to shoot themselves in the foot, a lot.

Quinn by 5, even though Brady is planning a transition team, now.

Comment by PPHS Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:21 pm
Brady 47
Quinn 41
Cohen 5
Whitney 4
Other 3

Comment by one of three puppets Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:37 pm
Quinn - 48%
Brady - 41%
Cohen - 6%
Whitney - 5%

I don’t want to believe this, but history may repeat itself and we got Blago for two terms (still can’t believe who voted the 2nd term for him) so I am sure Quinn will slide in. I hope not because I will have to kiss my retirement goodbye even if I make it there.

Comment by NRA associate Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 5:48 pm
I think 7-8% spread, Brady winning. I also think Cohen is going to really disrupt the ‘expected dem’ vote, and get 7-8%. I’ve seen more Cohen/Swilley ads/signs last couple days than anyone else. Also got another mailer from him today ( 1. how’d I get on his list? 2. where’s he getting this money?)

Comment by Park Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 7:33 pm
Quinn 49
Brady 47
Cohen 3
Others 1
I predict Cohen will draw from those who may have voted for Brady and not those who may have voted for Quinn. Cohen is Quinn’s early Christmas present.

Comment by waitress practicing politics... Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 7:35 pm
I think Southern Illinois Dem (above) has it about right. Sure wish Q was on top, but I imagine he won’t be.

Comment by Steve Downstate Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 8:43 pm
Man- has anyone not followed the various polls out there? The election has tightened up- that was always going to happen- but Brady easily wins by 5%. I believe it will be Brady 45%; Quinn 39%; and the remaining candidates split the rest.

Huge undervote- on both this race and the US Senate race. In fact, if there was a “none of the above” in the Senate race- I am convinced that would probably win.

Comment by Roy Slade Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 9:00 pm
If I were a state worker who holds either a politically appointed position or was appointed by Blago or Quinn….I’d be pre-filing for unemployment since there are very few jobs available for anyone in a $50K+ job in the State of Illinois!!!! In a round about way, I’m saying Brady in a landslide that makes 1994 look like small potatoes. Just remember you heard it here first!!!!

Comment by Pick-up Private Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 9:35 pm
2 points or less will be the “overwhelming mandate”.

Comment by Gregor Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 10:10 pm
For Quinn, I mean.

Comment by Gregor Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 10:10 pm
For labor, this has become very personal; I think they’ll GOTV for Pat but won’t be supporting Quinn so much as actively campaigning against Brady, the true bogeyman for their constituency.

I also have become just very skeptical of polling; something subjective and nothing I can point to directly, but I feel like I can’t trust most polls lately except in the very broadest terms. Not wanting to be a conspiracy theorist, but you know, pollsters are in the same position as bookies and investment brokers: they make money on you whether you win or lose, and the more they crank you up or scare you, the more business you throw their way. I think polls can be slanted for political and financial gains. I grasp that if dine right, small samples are still valid, but in my heart, I would rather trust a much wider sampling. People and pundits act like polls ARE the election, and that’s just not right. They are only a rough guide, not the actual race. Guess I’m old fashioned, but I think the only poll worth all the fuss is the one in November.

Comment by Newsclown Thursday, Oct 21, 10 @ 10:19 pm
Brady 45%
Quinn 41%

Comment by T.J. Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 1:28 am
brady by 5

Comment by ironman Friday, Oct 22, 10 @ 8:28 am