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* OK, so I’ve bumped up this post to the top so we can add results to this ScribbleLive thingy. I’ll “sticky” declare winners to the top of the feed.
…Adding… Here are links to live video coverage and results. I’ll add more to this as links develop online…
* ABC7: Results
* Tribune: Results
* Sun-Times: Results
* Daily Herald: Results
* CBS2: Results* Chicago: Results
* Cook County: Results
* DuPage County: Results
* Lake County: Results* WGN: Live video
* ABC7: Live video
* BlueRoomStream.com: Live at Bruce Rauner HQ
* BlueRoomStream.com: Live at Kirk Dillard HQ
* Now, watch it all go down…
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:30 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: A brief moment of Oscar-related Zen
Next Post: Quinn TV ad asks: “Who is the Real Bruce Rauner?”
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Anyone drop out, or any other big changes/surprises since last night?
Comment by DuPage Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:00 am
The coverage of candidates voting is about as fascinating as an outdoor weather report during a storm.
I’ll encourage all candidates to vote by mail prior to November’s general election — not that any ever pay attention to anything I suggest.
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 am
WLS appears to be reported subscriber stuff about Farnham. Didn’t hear an attribution. Shame on them.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:08 pm
Thanks, Rich.
Looking forward to the results here.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:36 pm
i think low turnout means record number of independents, not “low turnout”.
Comment by kimaye Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:45 pm
===i think low turnout means record number of independents===
lol
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:47 pm
Aaron Goldtside stein (running for State Senate) was outside my polling place. When he asked to speak with me I informed him I was voting in the Republican Primary. He then asked me if it was a strategic vote (I had my CPS ID on at the time) and when I told him yes he seemed fairly perturbed. His reaction made me think he had been hearing the same answer quite a bit throughout the day.
Comment by Downstater To Chicago Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:54 pm
===i think low turnout means record number of independents, not “low turnout”.===
Can you do the math to show how turnout indicates Indies?
Show your work.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:57 pm
Hey, Steve Jobs’ widow just gave Christian Mitchell $10,000 (well, just reported)
Comment by Johnson Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:59 pm
Hey Capt Fax
Are you doing live TV tonite?
Comment by circular firing squad Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:01 pm
Looks like WGN coverage is at http://wgntv.com/live/ . They’re the only ones broadcasting live on TV in Chicago that I’ve found, though maybe I’m missing someone.
Comment by drew Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:18 pm
CLTV - Rutherford spoke… Wasn’t a victory speech…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:24 pm
“Dan Rutherford is not going away.”
Also not going away, politicians talking in the third person.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:27 pm
Hurray! Paul Vallas on CLTV. How exciting.
At first I thought Vallas was via satellite in Connecticut…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:29 pm
Dillard holding his ground ~30% with just Cook and Lake reporting (Rauner’s home territories). If this holds there, it should be an interesting night as the rest of the state begins to report.
Comment by MrCR Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:30 pm
Paul Vallas is a sharp fella.
Comment by Mittuns Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:31 pm
Almost dizzy from the Vallas spin.
Micah Materre- “They put a nickel in Paul, didn’t they?” Love her.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:32 pm
Is the CLTV broadcast the same as WGN’s? I don’t have the fancy cable teevee.
Comment by drew Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:35 pm
If Dillard lost Lake and Cook, is there even a chance he can win? I mean, last general the Gov won Cook and nearly nothing else, and he’s gov.
Comment by Jimbo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:44 pm
20% in. Truax leading Oberweis. Thats a surprise.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:52 pm
As of 6:53PM 309 votes in my precinct in DuPage County. Poll workers were glad to be wrapping up a slow day. No petitions to be found.
Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:55 pm
Yes, as Rich notes, Rauner’s spokesman just said that Rauner is “very pro union.”
Let the great pivot begin!
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:05 pm
Either having your campaign manager brained with an icicle is a new highly effective strategy or people are really hacked off that they had to stay in the cold while the milkman toasted in Florida.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:07 pm
Looking like it might be a rough night for Obie
Comment by RMWStanford Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:09 pm
Apparently Oberweis is second-guessing that Florida trip. lol. Hope he goes down.
Comment by ??? Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:09 pm
Norseman, I think even Republicans are sick of Oberweis and they don’t want to nominate a national laughingstock. While I still hope the milkman delivers tonight, there might be light at the end of the tunnel for Illinois Republicans if they nominate Truax. He won’t beat Durbin, but he won’t embarrass the party either. That’s progress.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:10 pm
If Oberweis goes down, this will be one for the books. A reverse Bilandic if you will. Also, never underestimate the amount of non-goodwill (badwill?) he has built up over the years.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:13 pm
43% of precincts in McLean County have been reported and Dillard is leading the pack–
Brady 1502
Rutherford 684
Dillard 1563
Rauner 1125
Bloomington has its own election commission and they are not yet reporting results.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:17 pm
Good Lord, that Chip is a tool. Rauner is “pro-union”
Which one? Armored Car Drivers?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:18 pm
ZC, oh my gawd. He is the most disingenuous man I’ve ever seen.
Yeah, I bet in his mind he is pro union, they just need to take less pay. And not have any protections. And government workers shouldn’t get to be in one.
He’s pro union the same way he’s pro poor people. He likes them, and thinks they’re swell. They just need to take it in the teeth so he and his fellow 1 percenters can save a bit in taxes.
Comment by Jimbo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:18 pm
Rich, save Natasha’s photo of Rauner’s bar menu/prices. Perfect caption contest material.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:21 pm
Berrios goes down.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:21 pm
With 52 of 180 precincts in Sangamon County reporting, Dillard leads 63% to Rauner’s 16%. It will be very interesting to see the overall numbers as more of Sangamon Co precincts report, with all the unionized state employees who reside there…
Comment by ??? Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:23 pm
Rauners lead seems to be declining, could there be a surprise Dillard upset?
Comment by Publius Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:25 pm
Plummer is heading for an 0-1 record as a kingmaker…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:26 pm
Jeanne Ives up early, 64-36.
Comment by Where is Joe Kotlarz? Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:28 pm
I agree with Rich that things are not going as planned / predicted.
What is interesting is Rauner is slipping and Dillard gaining as more precincts come in. The $64 question is whether it is happening fast enough to make a difference.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:28 pm
At 60% reporting, then Dillard starts chasing raw votes, not percentages. At 38-40%, just seeing how many votes Dillard will be chasing at the end…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:29 pm
- Rep. Derrick Smith is losing
- Rep. Jaime Andrade wins big
- Rep. Ed Sullivan will win
- Santos, Avila, and Bradford win (MWRD)
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:29 pm
===Former Gov. Jim Edgar: Rauner might want to tone down the anti-union rhetoric in a general election===
Not a good sign for Dillard if Edgar talking Rauner and General Election in same sentence.
Just saying..,
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:31 pm
64.3% of precincts reporting in McLean County–
BRADY / RODRIGUEZ REP 2557 31.49%
RUTHERFORD / KIM REP 1119 13.78%
DILLARD / TRACY REP 2574 31.70%
RAUNER / SANGUINETTI REP 1869 23.02%
Bloomington still not reporting.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:32 pm
Oh wow, that bar menu. There needs to be an exit poll of Rauner’s party asking how many people bought the booze.
Comment by Timmeh Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:35 pm
Good on Ed Sullivan…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:36 pm
Durkin is sweating out Pihos…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:37 pm
Could somebody downstate comment on the Truax-Oberweis dynamic, please? What are you hearing seeing?
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:38 pm
AP calls it for Oberweis.
Oberweis/Rauner ticket taking shape.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:39 pm
Jeez, $8 for a domestic beer and $10 for a cocktail at Rauner’s event? Them’s ballpark prices. He might be pocketing the extra for the general.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:39 pm
-responsa
Oberweis winning 2-1 in my county. Name recognition ruled the day here I am afraid.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:41 pm
Dillard chasing about 19K at 48% reporting…
The number to watch - 19K
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:41 pm
- Ike Carothers will lose for County Board
- Keith Matune is winning (but only one precinct being reported)
- Samuel Rosenberg is losing (but only 13/118 precincts reporting)
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:42 pm
Evanston Township will be abolished (binding ref. authorized by state law)!!!!
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:43 pm
Cook County Dem Party Chairman can’t win it for his daughter. Guzzardi omg!
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:45 pm
81.4% reporting in McLean County
BRADY / RODRIGUEZ REP 3290 31.17%
RUTHERFORD / KIM REP 1626 15.41%
DILLARD / TRACY REP 3264 30.92%
RAUNER / SANGUINETTI REP 2375 22.50%
JAMES OBERWEIS REP 6367 66.37%
DOUGLAS LEE TRUAX REP 3195 33.31%
Write-in Votes 31 0.32%
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:46 pm
Rep. Gutierrez on CLTV hitting on “.01%”, and minimum wage - Rauner…
Narrative beginning on “.01%”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:47 pm
Dan, hurry out the door. I’m on the 22nd floor and can throw ice cubes.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:48 pm
Hm…I know, Oberweis won. But with 15 precincts left Truax leads Will County by 7+. Just interesting to me.
Comment by Concerned Observer Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:49 pm
“Rauner people believe they will win by 8″
interesting. That means their internals were closer than the public polls. Regardless of the outcome, that’s a good sign for Republican pollsters who were generally all too optimistic in 2012.
Pleasantly surprised by Dillard’s performance so far.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:49 pm
Dillard chasing 20K still…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:54 pm
blame rutherford & brady, where’s the $8 beers bruce?
Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:55 pm
wow. if only rutherford would have bowed out, brady too. wouldn’t have even been close. dillard would have walked.
Comment by kimaye Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:55 pm
State rep 103, all in Champaign-Urbana:
http://champaigncountyclerk.com/elections/results/2014/docs/march/SUMMARY.HTM
Ammons 63.9%, Rosenberg 36.1% with 53% in.
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:56 pm
Concerned Observer–yeah, it’s a bummer. Truax took Lake County, too, at 52.2%
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:57 pm
I think what we’ve seen with these two past GOP gov primaries is that we need Instant Runoff Voting to ensure a majority vote winner.
Comment by Green Party Voter Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:01 pm
Sangamon with 73% in:
BILL BRADY 2,001 13.78%
DAN RUTHERFORD 1,006 6.93%
KIRK W. DILLARD 9,111 62.73%
BRUCE RAUNER 2,406 16.57%
Not much left here for Dillard to make up, even at the 60% clip.
Also looks like Wes Barr will win big. Up by 1600 votes.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:03 pm
I know he’s still down 15k, but I would enjoy Quinn wasting all that money on ads tonight on the wrong candidate.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:04 pm
==I know he’s still down 15k, but I would enjoy Quinn wasting all that money on ads tonight on the wrong candidate. ==
I’d be cool with anti-Rauner ads until November, even if Dillard wins.
Comment by Timmeh Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:06 pm
Quinn is going to lose quite a few Southern Illinois Counties…and not by small margins. He has a lot of work to do no matter who the Republicans nominate.
Comment by Fayette County Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:07 pm
66% - chasing 14K…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:07 pm
AP - Cross declared winner. Hoping for Golf Outing invite.
Congrats to my Oswego friend.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:09 pm
Fayette County, no offense, but I think I’ve got more voters in my ward than you and three neighboring counties have. Counties don’t vote, people do.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:10 pm
Do Kennedy’s projected numbers take into account that traditionally Cook County dumps its early votes in at the end rather than during the process (as I know some counties - such as Lake - do?
Comment by observernumber9` Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:10 pm
cross v frerichs will be interesting. i see frerichs winning though
Comment by kimaye Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:11 pm
WGN - Rutherford like a whipped puppy. OUCH!
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:12 pm
This “County votes” is ridiculous.
Dillard is chasing votes, not counties!
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:13 pm
I wish WTTW had election coverage on right now, as opposed to 2 hours of Ed Sullivan highlights, as awesome as those are…
Comment by Jeff Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:13 pm
They just called it for Guzzardi on WGN TV. I have a very happy wife who’s gloating right now.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:14 pm
fayatte was just making point, quinn needs to pick up some more votes downstate, wouldn’t hurt to. willy, 47th these are not the drones you are looking for. move along please
Comment by kimaye Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:14 pm
Williamson County Democrats voted against the incumbent governor of their own party, 48-52 for Hardiman.
Comment by Downstate Illinois Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:16 pm
Embarassing bad loss for Berrios family and The Machine. Toni get a job with the Assessor now?
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:17 pm
OW, right…but DuPage County is big and has a lot of votes, and if I’m reading their results correctly (and if they’re up to date), less than a 1/3 of precincts have reported.
Comment by ??? Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:18 pm
Bloomington finally reporting out–16 or f 52 precincts
Bill Brady/Maria Rodriguez (REP)
32.52% 1,048
Dan Rutherford/Steve Kim (REP)
15.39% 496
Kirk W. Dillard/Jil Tracy (REP)
26.59% 857
Bruce Rauner/Evelyn Sanguinetti (REP)
25.50% 822
Surprised that Rauner is in 4th place and Dillard close to Brady in his hometown.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:19 pm
Thanks Kimaye. You said it better than I did.
Comment by Fayette County Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:19 pm
27% - Dillard still chasing 14K…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:19 pm
I’m looking at results by county and I still find it hard to believe that some counties haven’t posted any results yet. I’m looking at you Rock Island County. How can there not be anything reported yet?
Comment by Publius Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:20 pm
Rodney disposes of Erika Harold and Johnson Crew.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:21 pm
I may need to take back that bit about Rutherford dropping out not being enough for Dillard to win.
Comment by Timmeh Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:21 pm
Willy, Rodney Davis is back in. The TJ Crew can go crawl back under the rock.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:21 pm
For all the talk of Dillard’s late moves, I wish Truax had been out of the box sooner. I utilized early voting and never heard a word about Truax until after I voted for Ice Cream.
Comment by Oh Come On! Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:23 pm
- AA -, Erika needlessly ran, and that Johnson Crew were enablers with personal agendas attached.
She will learn and bounce back.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:24 pm
Oberweis kicking the campaign in high gear by accusing Sen. Durbin of comparing the military to Nazis(?)…
Comment by Mittuns Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:26 pm
Anyone know what parts of the state are still out?
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:28 pm
Brady bows out. Wish him the best in the IL Senate.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:30 pm
Does anyone else think, after listening to the applause during Oberweis’s speech, that there were approximately four people in the audience?
Comment by drew Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:31 pm
Clinton Co. Dems voted for Tio. Rahah.
Comment by So. ILL Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:33 pm
McLean County–100% reporting
BRADY / RODRIGUEZ REP 4261 30.89%
RUTHERFORD / KIM REP 2228 16.15%
DILLARD / TRACY REP 4126 29.91%
RAUNER / SANGUINETTI REP 3178 23.04%
Bloomington 30 of 52 precincts–
Bill Brady/Maria Rodriguez (REP)32.48% 1,884
Dan Rutherford/Steve Kim (REP) 13.60% 789
Kirk W. Dillard/Jil Tracy (REP) 27.75% 1,610
Bruce Rauner/Evelyn Sanguinetti (REP)26.17% 1,518
Brady just conceded race.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:34 pm
=== Does anyone else think, after listening to the applause during Oberweis’s speech, that there were approximately four people in the audience? ===
They must have cut off the free ice cream.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:35 pm
Re: Evanston Township being abolished. The entire township is coterminous with the city and there are no unincorporated areas left. Most of the township operations have already been assumed by the city (the aldermen act as township trustees, etc.) and there were only two elected township officials left.
The law of unintended consequences may carry over to other suburban townships (Berwyn, Cicero, Oak Park, River Forest, etc.) that have similar characteristics.
Township governments make sense in counties which are still partly rural.
Comment by Oh Come On! Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:35 pm
@Norseman:
Was it a cash ice cream bar?
Comment by Oh Come On! Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:36 pm
I don’t know why but the local Springfield station WICS is reporting closer numbers than the Chicago Tribune in the Gov race. Seems WICS has more totals in sooner.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:36 pm
Rauner just picked up a little steam.
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:37 pm
Berrios loss might be the most impactful loss within Dem ranks in a long time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:37 pm
Norseman, or maybe he was charging $10/bowl, a la Rauner.
Comment by ??? Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:38 pm
18% out, Dillard chasing 15K…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:39 pm
WGN reports only 2% difference between Rauner and Dillard.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:41 pm
Fastest results seem to be ABC 7 - see Rich’s link above.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:42 pm
Looks like most of the outstanding precincts are favorable to Rauner, and Rauner’s lead is edging back up. Getting close to that time…
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:42 pm
12% - Dillard chasing 17K…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:43 pm
Quinn loses Fulton County, one of the top ten Democratic counties in Illinois by Dem percentage. It’s a 95% white county that gave Obama 57% in 2012. Quinn gets 48% of the Democratic Primary vote. How embarrassing…
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:45 pm
Called for rauner by wowser on cap fax blog at 944pm. Willy is correct that vote numbers rather than % points should be focus.
Comment by Wowser Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:45 pm
Looks like Ammons beat Rosenberg (Speaker’s guy) for the Jakobsson seat.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:45 pm
Edgar on CLTV - yikes…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:46 pm
- Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:42 pm:
Thanks. ABC-7 is matching WICS-20. I’m thinking something is skewing the Trib numbers.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:47 pm
89% reporting. 17,500 vote margin between Rauner and Dillard
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:47 pm
Now comes the “Math” part of the program;
Ballots out - chasing 18K, what percent of what is out does Dillard need to win to get dragged over the finish line…
…Math…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:50 pm
Dillard @ Rauner’s party…
Game over.
Now just seeing how close us all that is left…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:52 pm
===.@SenatorKirk just arrived to Rauner HQ…#EOelect14 #twill===
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:53 pm
OW at 9:50
720k votes cast with 90% counted. Roughly figure there are 80,000 votes to go. Dillard has to find 17,000 more votes in those remaining 80k.
That is very rough.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:54 pm
Dillard made quite a run. There will be lots of what if-ing tomorrow…Unions step in earlier, Rutherford drops out, anti-Rauner ads earlier…
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:54 pm
If only DR had dropped out of the race. Sigh
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:54 pm
17K votes is only 2% of the total so far … do these totals include the early and absentee votes?
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:55 pm
By my calculations, which I just performed on an abacus while eating a Funk and Wagnalls encyclopedia, Dillard needs 62.5 percent of the remaining vote and also needs to keep Rauner under 30 percent. Doesn’t seem likely.
Rauner V Quinn!
The first campaign slogan for Governor Quinn is free. The rest will cost him.
“Bruce Rauner owns nine homes. Now he wants to buy this one.(Cut to Photo of Governor’s Mansion)
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:55 pm
Rutherford lost it for the GOP. Dumb, dumb.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:55 pm
I think that means Dillard has to outpoll Rauner by 20% in the last 80,000 votes. Seems like a tall order to me.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:55 pm
Does this mean we get to finally see what’s in the Rutherford report. Dude is toast. What an ego.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:57 pm
57K to 23K = 80K & Dillard at Rauner’s party to concede…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:57 pm
If a lot of those 80,000 remaining votes are from Central IL, it is Dillard.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:59 pm
@SenatorKirk is Mark Kirk, not Kirk Dillard
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:00 pm
I say it all the time, feel compelled to say it again.
Run them all.
Less than 25% total turnout; field operations and finding votes as critical as TV Ads…
Don’t blame Rutherford, don’t blame Brady.
Weak sauce. At such a low turnout, it isn’t that easy to just blame Brady and Rutherford…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:01 pm
92% reporting, difference is high 16K
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:02 pm
I doubt there are 80K votes still out there. 10% is outstanding precincts, not votes
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:02 pm
lol apologies … My bad. I blame all the math I am doing in my pea brain. I am a Dope.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:03 pm
I know he’s going to win, but this is not good for Rauner. He dominated this race with money and ads and is going to somewhat eke out a victory thanks to Rutherford staying in the race.
Big news though is things may be changing in Chicago?
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:03 pm
I agree OW. The charge was made much too late. Don’t understand the strategy.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:04 pm
-From the Dale…..
The unions can’t be feeling good. They have a choice in the fall of a Governor they hate versus a candidate they fear.
just saying.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:05 pm
I don’t understand how the polling was so inaccurate again. How can the Quinn or Rauner campaign rely on any accurate polling with the 2010 general and this primary?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:06 pm
=== I know he’s going to win, but this is not good for Rauner. He dominated this race with money and ads and is going to somewhat eke out a victory thanks to Rutherford staying in the race. ===
Well, we don’t know yet how many Dems pulled GOP ballots to influence the race… it may (or may not) have been a big factor. But I don’t think we can assume this was a raw GOP primary.
Comment by Just Observing Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:06 pm
OW,
Agree you can’t overstate GOTV. Like I posted earlier, even though he was a first time candidate, one of our two local GOP sheriff candidates had an effective GOTV operation … and I think it made the difference since he took an early lead and held onto it all night.
In all honesty, either of the sheriff candidates would have been OK, but one seemed to want it more than the other and that made the difference.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:06 pm
Glad someone corrected me. Apologies…
Rauner - where was that Ground Game..,
Huge weakness there. Quinn has opening in Ground Game if history shows how Quinn closes his campaigns…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:07 pm
Rauner got 40%+ in a four-way Primary against an orchestrated union crossover push, and more votes than Brady and Dillard had combined in 2010. Not the margin of victory he wanted, but not bad actual vote numbers.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:09 pm
The Farmer has it. No abacus required.
Let the games begin.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:10 pm
===Well, we don’t know yet how many Dems pulled GOP ballots to influence the race… it may (or may not) have been a big factor. But I don’t think we can assume this was a raw GOP primary.===
Dems, get to vote against Rauner…. Scary!
Called for Rauner 41-37 …
Gotta build a GOTV Rauner Crew… Got to.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:11 pm
Willy, you can make up for it by finding out how to place write-in votes in Illinois for state and municipal offices when there isn’t a space provided on the ballot, then posting the procedure here.
If you don’t do it, I will contact David Orr’s office when this primary business cools down.
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:11 pm
Mrs. Brady, all class on CLTV
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:12 pm
ABC 7 is declaring Rauner the winner
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:12 pm
Networks are calling it for Rauner
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:14 pm
Is Rahmbo in town? I swear I just heard cackling from the direction of Ravenswood.
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:14 pm
“Direct all campaign questions to - Norseman -, all consulting questions to - AA -. Thank you.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:14 pm
@Downstate, I think the Unions made this a race. Rauner outspent Dillard 15 to 1 or something… Rauner was up by nearly 20 points and looks like he’s going to win by about 3. We can debate if the Unions waited too long or if their strategy was on point, but they impacted this race big time.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:14 pm
Looks like Rauner’s support is a mile wide and .01 of an inch deep!
Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:15 pm
Downstate
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:15 pm
Downstate,
Can you please explain how R’s are going to be able to unite around Rauner? Just as many social conservatives and union members who hate Quinn will stay home come November.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:17 pm
Two very flawed candidates with major problems within their respective bases. Makes for interesting race
Comment by Generation X Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:17 pm
Republicans might want to re-think the whole “quinn’s record is garbage” argument. Not going to be a winner as it is wrong
Comment by Wowser Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:17 pm
Rauner Crew needs to convince 59 percent of those taking ballots against them to look to them to lead Illinois;
Unions, no Unions, ballots cast in this round had 59 percent not choosing Bruce.
Good news? Like the NCAA;
Rauner did what needed to be done, “survive and advance.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:17 pm
Nancy Brady is a classy lady. Bill’s a lucky man.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:18 pm
It’s on. Dillard did better than I thought, but it doesn’t matter now. This will be epic and will have national prominence.
I’m sorry that Quinn has to be the one who best represents my issue positions, but what can you do. Let us see if the pants the public unions got mad in will be the ones they get glad in in November.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:18 pm
Quinn talking veterans, workers, and minimum wage in his acceptance speech.
It would be real surprising if he backed a maximum wage, like no more than 50 times the lowest wage. That would bring up the lowest wages.
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:19 pm
lol!!
Quinn, “Fundamental Reforms” Classic Quinn on the borrow!
Mr. Rauner, “Welcome to the ‘Show’…”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:20 pm
There’s different ways to look at this. 40% in a four way race might be looked upon as impressive but given the HUGE disparity in the money spent by Rauner versus Dillard and it appears that he will only win by about 3%. Who knows, if the Union had thrown their support behind Dillard a few weeks earlier or if Rutherford had bowed out maybe it would be Dillard who won. It will be an interesting campaign from now to November.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:21 pm
From the Dale - The union push at the end was impressive. They clearly impacted the race.
The stories with regard to the mobilization of union members was scary impressive.
Social conservatives can either sit out or pick Rauner. I think they will select the latter. He has eight months to make his case - while extolling the fiscal success that is Quinn’s Illinois.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:22 pm
Rauner, out of virtually nowhere, ran circles around three guys who have been running for governor since they were in short pants.
He locked down all the money months ago and showed more energy than the other three combined. Way quicker on his feet, too.
For a dude pushing 51, it’s been strange to see the descent into anemia of the establishment GOP.
A goof like Blago beat them, twice. Quinn, who never won a big one, beat them in s historic GOP year. Now Rauner comes out of nowhere and grabs the ring. And Oberweis finally wins one.
Geez, Big Jim must be shaking his head.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:22 pm
Some radio and TV stations are gonna be rolling in cash the next 7+ months!!!!
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:23 pm
Now Rich Whitey really is at the top of the ticket…for both Senate and Governor
Comment by So. ILL Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:23 pm
Two deeply flawed candidates meet in November. Two candidates who against “better” opponents would be trailing badly.
Two flawed candidates enter the ring.
One leaves standing. It’s simple electoral physics.
I’d bet Rauner will not be standing at the end of this battle of flawed brawlers.
Rauner’s wealth and sense of entitlement is more annoying than Quinn’s fecklessness and weakness. Or perhaps I’m wrong.
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:24 pm
They took the mic away from Rauner before he started growling like Howard Dean.
He has the mic again.
There is time for him to growl.
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:25 pm
Wordslinger, if you are saying Rauner is pushing 51, he is 57.
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:26 pm
Wonder if Dillard will get a call from Gidwitz to come to tomorrow’s unity breakfast so he can forgive his campaign debt?
It would be an expensive meal to miss.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:26 pm
The Dems began influencing the Republican primary when a friend of Rahm entered the race for governor; the union push for Dillard was merely an afterthought.
Comment by Upon Further Review Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:27 pm
Proft - “Hello? HGOP Caucus!”
Bruce Rauner? That is the best you can do speaking as the Nominee for the 1st time???
Aw-Ful… Needs to get better.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:27 pm
Terms are four years, Bruce… just saying, lol.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:28 pm
One way to look at this is that Rauner is pumped up a bit…
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:29 pm
Knocks Quinn for five minutes, then claims Quinn is dividing Illinois.
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:29 pm
Turning a race which had been all but called for Rauner into a close squeaker should strike fear into the heart of every pension thief. Just wait. The public employees are out for revenge even if they have to cross over for it.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:29 pm
Why does Rauner sounds like Howard Dean?
Hmmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:30 pm
==Two deeply flawed candidates meet in November. Two candidates who against “better” opponents would be trailing badly.–
C’mon, man. Who are the mystery “better opponents?”
Rauner beat the three guys that the sleepy establishment GOP has been selling for years.
With Quinn, the great 12-year “Lisa” conspiracy proved to be a demented fever-dream. And the most overrated great Dem hope of all time this side of Chris Kennedy, Bill Daley, couldn’t take the heat for more than a couple of weeks.
Rauner won, Quinn won, because they beat the others. Beat them like rented mules.
It’s going to be a Battle Royale til November.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:32 pm
I think it would have been hard for any R campaign planners anywhere in the country to imagine, anticipate, or prepare for this much union influence and money being spent on boosting another R candidate in a primary fight. I may be wrong but as far as I know it’s pretty unprecedented.
It’s one strategy, to be sure, but I tend to think that for better or worse party primary voters should choose their own candidates–not have their political opponents trying to choose or cherry pick them. This has certainly been fascinating and I think/worry we’ve entered a whole new phase of ugly IL politics.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:34 pm
anon, if the public employees are out for revenge, why was the turnout low in Sangamon County?
Comment by Wally Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:34 pm
For the record, the best word I can come up with is: dumb. Unions ENDORSE a Republican? How dumb is that. And please, I so don’t want to hear the word almost. Dillard almost won. If he only had one more week. Ugh. If my aunt had a … He’d be my uncle. This was a goofy primary. Dems pulling repub ballots. Jeez. Glad it’s over. Moving on.
Comment by Westward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:35 pm
Sanguinetti needs to be on every Quinn ad. Palin lite for sure.
Comment by snucka Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:36 pm
– The public employees are out for revenge even if they have to cross over for it.–
Just kind of missed that trick, didn’t they?
If public employee unions are down on Rauner, they better get a little more personally invested in their work, a lot quicker and a lot smarter.
The dude ran a great campaign. He made all his opponents look like amateurs.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:37 pm
Been thinking about this all evening, so I decided to get it on record early. Even though they didn’t defeat Rauner, the unions proved they could significantly move the needle. Now that we know the line-up, the one real unknown factor is will the unions come home to Quinn this fall?
The ISC could have a big impact on that decision. If “pension reform” is ruled on before the election, and found unconstitutional, that pretty much removes any threat Rauner could make to do further “reform”. It also takes away one of the major items of anomosity towards Quinn. So the state employees / retirees will be free to decide if they are still mad over Quinn’s signing the bill. My guess is not so much; I expect the election will then come down to taxes and social issues.
But if the ISC does not rule before the general election and possibility of further “pension reform” is hanging out there, I’m inclined to think the state employees / retirees / unions will decide better the devil they know …
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:39 pm
“Unions ENDORSE a Republican? How dumb is that.”
Not so dumb when you consider that a billionaire who made lots of money off of public workers’ pensions wants to smash in the heads of their leaders. Those secure wages and benefits don’t just materialize. They come from contract negotiations, grievances and court rulings.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:42 pm
Term limits will also be front and center for the fall.
Rauner has done more to advance the ball on this issue as a private citizen, then Quinn has done after more than 35 years in political office.
I was told that term limits are supported by 60% plus of Illinois Dems and 70% of Republicans. Right now, Rauner owns that issue.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:44 pm
Rauner won.
It wasn’t Rutherford or Brady.
The campaigns of the “3″ were dismal, the Ground Games led to low turnout loses.
Make no mistake. Survive and advance puts Rauner where he wanted to be, the Nominee. Done.
The “3″ got beat. No whining.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:44 pm
DIllard oding this well, with his crappy campaign etc does not bode well for Rauner for the General.
But Quinn would have been better off with a different GOP candidate then Rauner (the last is for oneman).
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:44 pm
Jim Oberweis just said Dick Durbin doesn’t represent “Illinois values”.
Time for GOP candidates to meet with Republicans Against Marijuana Prohibition (RAMP),
Comment by Hans Sanity Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:45 pm
Exactly, RNUG. The needle was moved. The outcome in a smaller district in another low turnout election could be radically different. Witness Guzzardi beating the Berrios family with pension and teacher/public employee issues being prominent in the race.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:46 pm
Wordslinger,
Bill Daley is not a rented mule. Rented mules do NOT wear Gucci loafers. Daley expected a coronation not an election. Classic bosses’s son finds out real life is sometimes difficult.
Rauner outspent his opponents by a factor of WOW and his money and what’s he done with it in the past will be as much hindrance as help in the general election.
I personally feel Quinn was beatable in the primary, but no one “real” stepped up. One of the non tainted black state legislators from the south side could have made it interesting. Tap into the black and independent votes.
I feel Rahm is beatable, but someone serious has to jump in. I’m more clown than serious so I won’t be running against him.
Then again US Grant had a great line about “IF” in his memoir. If only………..if only. If only I were better looking, filthy rich, and an actor I would be married to Scarlett Johannson. If only. Hell, I might even run for office. If only.
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:47 pm
By Dillard pulling Jim Edgar into the race, Quinn now has a bunch of campaign commercials featuring Edgar. I mean, can Edgar just switch now and support Rauner? Is he going to argue that Quinn will represent the .01% even more than Rauner? Does anyone think Edgar has any influence anymore?
Comment by Filmmaker Professor Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:48 pm
=Palin lite for sure.=
Mmhmm. You mean the one who called it on Eastern Europe?
(Sorry. Couldn’t resist.
)
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:50 pm
If the Union gets anything, like - RNUG - put so well is that Illinois Unions … have impact. Period.
The Unions get a “do-over” if they want it against Rauner, but at the price of Quinn.
That is the “rub”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:50 pm
Another big loser on March 18th? The pollsters and the pundits who had Rauner running away with it. I am really astonished at how inaccurate the polls so often are in Illinois.
More shame on the thousands voters who sat this one out on account of the polls.
Earlier today, we revisited the old axiom “Signs don’t vote.” Neither do poll results.
Comment by Upon Further Review Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:53 pm
Sanguietti v. Vallas could be interesting.
If Evelyn pulls a Plummer, Rauner may survive, definitely better than Brady did, but Evelyn needs to be out there. Plummer proved hiding in the General is not really a good way to approach this.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:54 pm
Just a quick aside.
64,000 more votes were cast for the Republican Gov race than for the US Senate race. Is that an indicator of how many cross-overs occurred, since they were targeting the Gov. race?
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:54 pm
Downstate, interesting point.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:58 pm
If Rauner’s numbers could tank that much after the little bit of work that the unions and Dillard’s people did the last couple weeks, that bodes well for the Dems I would think, especially with a guy like Oberweis also running statewide to reinforce the 1 percenter out-of-touch rich guy message.
And speaking of incorrect poll numbers, where did all of Erika Harold’s votes come from? Lots of Dillard-Harold voters in that district?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:59 pm
Playing fun with numbers, it looks like there will be anywhere from 30-40,000 more R votes than in 2010. Subtract 30-40,000 from Dillard’s total, and that puts the race pretty close to what the polls were predicting.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:00 pm
Thought Dillard had a chance to pull it out knowing the union’s GOTV past efforts. Treasurer should have dropped out. He’s cost the GOP the Governor’s election. Unions will go home. They have no choice.
Comment by Mouthy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:01 pm
One last point - Pollsters were clearly off on the Republican results. However, I believe they were only polling likely R voters. If you remove the 50k — 60k crossover voters that may have come into the primary, then the results would have looked more like this:
Rauner - 42%
Dillard - 33%
Those are very rough numbers. Bottom line - tough to get accurate polling when only polling likely Rs in a race like this..
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:03 pm
–I feel Rahm is beatable, but someone serious has to jump in.–
And who are the mystery candidates?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:03 pm
The Unity Breakfast should be better than 4 years ago.
The rub I see is now Bruce Rauner is a standard bearer that has to unite a party that he claims has a close to a 1/3 of its members in the GA as a problem.
Healing wounds instead of stump rhetoric might be a really good tact. Running with term limits and taking on the GOP too, while taking on Quinn is like fighting two fronts for no reason.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:03 pm
Do have to say the Senger win surprised me. She is going to have to actually exert effort if she wants to beat Foster. I am not expecting her to do so.
Comment by Oneman Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:04 pm
A great orator, Bruce Rauner is not. Luckily for him Pat Quinn has set a pretty low bar. Rauner decided to forego a podium and instead acted like the principal feigning enthusiasm at a homecoming pep rally.
Too bad Lisa chose to sit this one out, but I am pleased with Toni’s loss. WGN conveniently cut Guzzardi’s speech short and gave Senger all the time in the world.
Comment by CasualObserver Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:04 pm
Quinn lost in macoupin county…
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:09 pm
There is no question unions are a big, powerful, important and influential interest group and voting bloc. They command attention. But sometimes reading here and elsewhere I wonder, though, if they even remember that a Gov. Quinn or a Gov. Rauner will have many groups and constituencies to serve and issues to prioritize–not just theirs. As I said above, I understand their zeal and their desperation with respect to the pension matter. But it’s very possible that the unusual union endorsement of an unnatural “ally” lost Dillard as many votes as it gained him. That should be food for though for everyone involved.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:10 pm
RNUG, it’s late and I could be off here, but I’m not sure that an ISC decision on SB1 before the election (which I don’t think will happen) would change Rauner’s position on “pension reform.”
Recall that he said SB1 was a “band-aid on an open wound” and thought “we need to go much farther” by “freezing” the systems, yada yada yada.
Unless he moves way off that position, which I find unlikely, where else do the “government union bosses” go?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:11 pm
Thanks Rich for all of the updates … much appreciated!
Comment by Elizabeth Reed Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:13 pm
@Downstate:
True enough, but over the past few weeks many of the discussions treated the polls as if the results were inscribed in granite while the unions were gearing up. Few people even discounted the percentages by a couple of points when it became abundantly clear that crossover votes were going to be a variable.
In 2014, it still surprises me that there are still thousands of voters who have been conditioned to either skip the primary election because they do not want to declare their party preference publicly or that will take a particular party ballot solely because they fear political repercussions if they do not do so.
Comment by Upon Further Review Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:17 pm
It really is a shame that these polls help determine the election. Mike Royko used to tell people to lie to the pollsters so they don’t cause people to stay home…like this election. I really miss that guy and can only imagine what he would do to the Baron.
Comment by Bobo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:18 pm
100? Trib and CST say 27 vote lead for Sandack.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:19 pm
Downstate, ;there was a US Senate undervote in 2010 as well, but not as much of one. About 25K.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:20 pm
“But it’s very possible that the unusual union endorsement of an unnatural “ally” lost Dillard as many votes as it gained him.
In my humble opinion Brady would have beat Dillard without the unions.
Comment by Mouthy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:20 pm
CC, they’re way behind.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:20 pm
It will be interesting to see if the Unions stay neutral in the fall or endorse one or the other of the candidates for Governor. If they do decide to make an endorsement, they will swallow some pride and endorse Quinn. It will either be that or no endorsement at all, and as tonight’s results showed they are a good ally to have in your corner as they did in fact move the needle and make it surprisingly close.
There are some Republican leaning Union members who voted for Dillard tonight and it will be interesting to wonder who they support in the fall. I look for Rauner to greatly soften his rhetoric on Unions during his general election campaign but I don’t know how many will buy the message.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:23 pm
“It really is a shame that these polls help determine the election. Mike Royko used to tell people to lie to the pollsters so they don’t cause people to stay home…like this election. I really miss that guy and can only imagine what he would do to the Baron.”
When I was young I read Royko religiously and bought his books. I agree with your assessment.
Comment by Mouthy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:25 pm
Sandack and Sullivan survive… As does Ives, and her friend Breen.
Proft gets “2″, Durkin gets “2″
Pihos - Breen.
“You’re going the wrong way…”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:25 pm
Who is up for Pizza?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:26 pm
Rich at 1120
That’s surprising.
I am always stumped when people skip over the higher profile races. If I’ve taken the time to go vote I like to exercise that right completely.
But I realize that many people think differently than me, Of course participating in the Capital Fax board has reinforced that even further.
Good night to all!
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:27 pm
the unions will be with Governor Quinn. They will fight like their existence depends on it. Rauner has only himself to blame for that. Illinois will not become Wisconsin or Michigan. The Repub Primary was only the opening salvo. This is going to get very intense, very quickly.
Comment by Labordude Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:27 pm
Ain’t that right Rich?
Comment by Labordude Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:29 pm
Seeing as Tio will finish just under 30% with no money and no pub, had the unions concentrated their efforts on turning out the Dem primary vote against Quinn, would they have had a better shot at knocking him off than Rauner?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:31 pm
PJQ better camp out south of I-80 all summer. Some of those downstate county numbers look flat out ugly for him.
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:33 pm
Thanks for the 65K number. It’s the best guess I’ve seen of the crossover. Of course I didn’t bother with the other candidates on the Republican ballot. It’s not like I was gonna vote for any of them in the general. Remembered that Tom Cross had been leading the charge on pension theft so voted against him as well.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:34 pm
Erika Harold got some numbers, above the “23.5″ I thought she needed to be relevant, but still never threatened Davis.
Was her numbers a turnout for her, or just negative votes against Davis, given Erika’s poll numbers?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:36 pm
- Labordude - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:27 pm:
Yup I’m a retired state employee and local leader and as bad as Quinn is and what’s he’s trying to do to my pension, he’s far, far better than a union buster. The unions will put Quinn over the top and it won’t be close. Oh, the humanity….
Comment by Mouthy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:39 pm
Upon further review, Downstate, I don’t think the Senate undervote means anything. In 2002, there was a 90,000 Senate undervote.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:42 pm
I suspect Rauner’s term limit strategy might be a lot more popular than Rauner himself. I wouldn’t be surprised if Quinn adopts the Barron’s love child.
Thank you Bruce for the funding.
Comment by Bobo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:45 pm
I don’t believe there was a public poll in the Davis Harold race prior to her advertising. So those numbers weren’t much for comparison. Anyone in the district figured it must have been closer than the CFW since Rodney was spending a ton.
Comment by CU Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:48 pm
Anyone who crossed over had to nail the milk man too. You just couldn’t help yourself. Why do you think his contest was so close.
Comment by Bobo Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:58 pm
Lineups? “Official”
Oberweis - Durbin
Rauner/Sanguietti - Quinn/Vallas
Schimpf - Madigan
Webster - White
Topinka - Simon
Cross - Frerichs
Top 2 get huge play…
Topinka - Simon gets “interest” of the novelty of Simon (name, former LG)
Then the Cross - Frerichs race…
Cross may see more coattails off Topinka directly above him, than Oberweis or Rauner. The dynamic of Topinka - Simon and the next race down impact has my attention a bit.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:02 am
Do voters go…
“Lisa, Jesse, Judy…”…and then stay with the GOP side of the ballot, or go across, again, for Dem Frerichs?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:07 am
OW, I just met Frerichs. I think he is 7 feet tall.
Comment by Bobo Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:10 am
- Bobo -,
I hadn’t heard. Tall you say?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:14 am
you betcha. If height is any factor he is a winner. He couldn’t use the microphone because it was too short.
Comment by Bobo Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:18 am
“if the public employees are out for revenge, why was the turnout low in Sangamon County?”
Probably because state employees traditionally shy away from primary voting for fear that declaring a party affiliation could hurt their chances for career advancement. I don’t think that’s as much of a problem since the Rutan decision (forbidding politically-based hiring for non-policy making jobs) but, old habits die hard.
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:21 am
Through all the union talk/hype and voter turnout being down, it should be noted that Rauner will end up with more votes than any Republican Gov candidate in a primary in over a decade (since Jim Ryan in 2002).
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:29 am
===…public poll in the Davis Harold race prior to her advertising. So those numbers weren’t much for comparison…===
Great point. While doing advertising moved the Harold numbers, as they would, publically both Crews didn’t want to show; Harold moving numbers, or Harold still down as far as she was.
There was positive movement, but not enough to show a gap closing(?)
Going 14 to 40 percent is not something an incumbent wants to show about his challenger(?)
Thanks for something to think about.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:30 am
Sandack pulled it out. Daddy Uline has got to be pleased about how his money was spent.
Comment by justsayin' Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:42 am
- Anonymous -,
While true, but also first time in a very long time no Primary race on the Dem side to keep voters from crossing too.
Quinn and Tio only got 550,000 total votes. Tio was never considered serious, almost making it uncontested…
2010 had Hynes, hotly contested, 916,000 votes total in that race.
2006 had Eisendrath, getting 944,000 votes total in that race.
2002 had Rod, Vallas, and Burris going over 1.2 million on that race.
Democratic dog fights. Major factor? Nothing going on, on the Dem side…not Rauner energizing being a mitigating factor greater than the lack of race on the Dem side.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:43 am
Everybody probably went to bed, but re: Davis-Harold: I read turnout was down all over the state, but it was through the roof in Champaign Co. That’s probably why she came closer than anybody outside her campaign anticipated.
Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 2:29 am
AA,
it won’t change Rauner’s position but it would remove any power he might have today to make significant changes.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:42 am
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:21 am:
Rutan just applied to hiring. There are more subtle ways careers can be affected, especially for non-union positions like SPSA’s.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:48 am
Nice Post. Thanks for share
Comment by 2014 Election Poll Tuesday, Apr 1, 14 @ 5:48 am