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* As I told you earlier today, Gov. Pat Quinn is running a new TV ad during news coverage of election results. The ad uses video footage of Bruce Rauner talking about lowering the minimum wage and about being “adamantly, adamantly” against raising it. The ad ends with the silent tagline “Who is the Real Bruce Rauner?”
* Rate it…
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:00 pm
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I wonder who the Quinn folks think will win the Republican Primary?
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:01 pm
Meh. It’s an emotional appeal that I think just misses the mark. The message is fine but it could have been sharper. They ask the question, who is the real Bruce Rauner, instead of answering it for viewers using his own words against him.
C+
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:03 pm
It’s alright. They should have thrown in a soundbite of him saying he is for a minimum wage increase at the end of the ad. B-; good, on the right track (who is Bruce Rauner is great), but him backtracking is important as well. Imply that he’s different in person than he is on TV.
Comment by Timmeh Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:04 pm
It is a good ad. Simple, uses Rauner’s words, the first of many. The ads write themselves and there are plenty of Rauner quotes and history to go for all 7 months between now and the General.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:04 pm
“And awaaaaaaaaay we GO!” POW! And an “A” Grade on Pat Quinn’s 1st Whack Ad out of the Box…! (The REAL Truth HURTS, ay, “Bought-My-Nomination Bruce?!”
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:06 pm
Hopefully, Rauner learned something from that stupid mistake. And this ad will remind him. Time for a reboot: soon he will be in a real political
campaign, not campaign kindergarten.
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:06 pm
“B-, C+”
Opening salvo, but until I see his the media play, plays itself out as a strategy, this stand-alone Ad is bland, and less impactful to open the dialogue without a follow-up making this a narrative.
So, “B-,C+” is pretty generous.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:07 pm
“how the media play,…”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:08 pm
I rate it a C because it’s confused. It shows Rauner saying he wants to lower the minimum wage and is against raising it. It asks who is the real Bruce Rauner. The choices are both against the minimum wage. It implied that Rauner is a flip-flopper when both of Rauner’s positions are negative against the wage.
It would have been better if Rauner was for the increase after being against it. Then we can ask who is the real Bruce Rauner.
What I like about the ad is that it paints Rauner into a bit of a corner about the wage increase. He did take two negative positions on the minimum wage, in the ad.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:09 pm
Well… He went negative because he can’t say anything he has done… The farmer will pound starting tomorrow… $55 million anyone? Ugh. I wanted a week off….
Comment by Walter Mitty Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:12 pm
Quinn went negative because the “3″ never did until its way too late. Rauner was at 10% negatives up to 3 weeks out; way too low, negatives need/needed to rise.
Lesson learned.
Negatives need to rise on Rauner. They do.
Education on both Rauners begins…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:16 pm
Gentlemen’s C.
Good strategy, poorly executed.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:16 pm
Not as effective as it could be. For one thing, the complete lack of a voice over means that we never hear Rauner’s name — so if you’re in the other room, or reading a magazine or playing with the dog when the ad comes on, all you get is another politician’s voice on the airwaves. Hearing his name once, clearly, followed by his negativity on the minimum wage would help to lock those two things together in the listener’s mind. However, from a visual standpoint, I do like the “Billionaire Bruce Rauner” text at the end. They’ve just made Billionaire his first name, and he’s talking at us about the minimum wage. That part, I think, is effective.
Comment by Steve Downstate Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:16 pm
Minimum wage is about the least of the state’s worries by the way… That doesn’t move the needle. I would like a poll on how angry that the night of the primary negative ads are on T? I have had an absolute onslaught of mailers in West burbs…
Comment by Walter Mitty Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:17 pm
===It would have been better if Rauner was for the increase after being against it.===
No way. Flip-flop attacks never work. You never point out where an opponent agrees with a target audience.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:17 pm
If I didn’t know better, I would have guessed this is a web ad. Very weak.
Comment by Lunchbox Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:22 pm
–Minimum wage is about the least of the state’s worries by the way… –
Class, race, and gender warfare are the only worry statewide and national Democrats have when campaigning.
Comment by So. ILL Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:26 pm
“No way. Flip-flop attacks never work. You never point out where an opponent agrees with a target audience.”
Thanks, Rich. Lesson learned. I’ll be keeping an eye out for this in the future. I rated the ad the way I did because I was just taking Quinn’s words at face value and assumed something else.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:33 pm
I like it, it sets the stage for the larger theme. It’s not just this spot presumably.
I like it - because it rings true - one of the reasons I never liked Rauner is because he’s so phony - 18 dollar watch - carhartt hunting dog . . .pretends not to know things.
Comment by Siriusly Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:34 pm
It’s an issue Rauner is vulnerable on and it’s good to bring it up at some point. To those who say minimum wage doesn’t resonate, Rauner apparently thinks it does or he wouldn’t have done his clumsy flip flop when this became public.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:35 pm
regardless of who wins GOP primary the general election will be based on a 4 letter word JOBS !!!
Comment by railrat Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:39 pm
Smart, simple, brutal. Portrait of a heartless sinister billionaire.
Comment by Brookport Brandon Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:45 pm
The quality of the ad is only like 10% of the point at the moment.
The strategy of getting it out to media ahead of the election coverage is brilliant. WGN has already played it for free a few times tonight as part of the “while the republicans fight, here’s what Quinn’s doing!” coverage. It’s setting the agenda for the Quinn/Rauner fight.
Advantage PQ.
Comment by haverford Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:48 pm
Can’t wait to see the Rauner’s, Quinn “ill veto any tax increase over 4% ad. ” Illinois is the loser with a choice of these two.
Comment by Fed up Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:18 pm
Did they call it for Rauner yet? This ad is a start. Nothing more, nothing less..
Comment by Kunfushous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:19 pm
=== They ask the question, who is the real Bruce Rauner, instead of answering it for viewers using his own words against him. ===
Exactly. The Quinn people can’t afford to leave the impact of their message to chance. They need to boil their message down to two or three words that are sharp, provocative and sticky, and then beat that message like a drum with every ad and media appearance. Just get to the point, get there fast, and stay there.
Something like: “Rauner lied.”
As in …
“Rauner claimed he’s not an insider, but Rauner lied.”
Or something like: “Rauner hurts people.”
As in …
“Rauner says school teachers should lose their pensions. Rauner hurts people and then retreats to his mansion and counts his millions.”
If the Quinn people haven’t read the memo that they’re up against an opponent with virtually unlimited resources, who’s a fresh face at a time when voters hate government and want change, who’s running a solid and sophisticated operation, who’s carefully avoided the touchstone social issues that get GOP primary voters excited but that tend to doom conservative Republicans in the general, and who’s shown himself to be far more savvy than most anybody anticipated just six months ago, then they better get reading.
Comment by Raymond Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:36 pm
Awwwww. Ahern is reporting that Jack Ryan was just spotted at Rauner’s bash. Hello, Jack.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:37 pm
I guess Quinn has called it,lol.
Thought he would go positive: gay marriage, capital plan, unpaid bills down, crime down, etc.
As a negative spot, it’s fine, not great. He better have a lot better.
Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:41 pm
Does Ryan have “bring out the gimp” gear on?
Comment by Kunfushous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:44 pm
@rich 7:17
Great point!
Needs to be included in “100 rules of Political Campaigns”
Comment by Rufus Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 8:54 pm
One thing’s for sure: This will the longest, most expensive, most negative general election campaign for Illinois governor that we’ve ever seen.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:09 pm
$40,000 down the drain…
Comment by Southsider Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 9:45 pm
Amazing ad. Love it. A+
Comment by North Shore Joe Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:06 pm
Good Start. It uses his own words and it’s hard to be critical of a negative ad that is just quotes. It establishes a foundation upon which to build.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:11 pm
Joe Slade White should have a field day working with the video from the Bruce and Evelyn show tonight. That was some awkward television.
We’re gonna get him gone. He needs to be gotten gone with.
All that money and he can’t deliver a coherent speech on election night?
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:36 pm
Seemed totally weak. One-note, one quote. Minimum wage targets a small demographic that isn’t inclined to vote anyway. Even weaker, he’s advocating keeping our rates in line with the national standard. …OK, and this is awful how?
Comment by Teller Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:42 pm
Quinn showing he’ll play the class warfare card. Taking a page out of the Obama playbook…when you can’t run on your record this is the usual Democratic play.
Comment by Warren Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:43 pm
I think it was hard for PQ to go after Bruce head on before today where as no such problem was there for Bruce. At least this ad shows that Pat’s people understand the real race started some time back and the time to spend has come.
Comment by Bemused Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:44 pm
@Raymond:
Good analysis.
There is a real danger with ad campaigns that “raise questions” about a candidate.
Your opponent can respond by raising even bigger questions about you.
Your opponent can respond by answering the question.
My advice: don’t run a spot “raising questions” about your opponent if they have time and money to counter.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 10:50 pm
–There is a real danger with ad campaigns that “raise questions” about a candidate.
Your opponent can respond by raising even bigger questions about you.–
YDD, you make no sense.
I don’t know what your angle is on this line you’ve been taking for the last week or so, but it’s weak.
Quinn’s going to go negative. Rauner’s going to go negative. Big surprise.
They are going to “raise questions” about each other, no matter what.
Your spin is loopy. Again, I don’t know the objective, but don’t outsmart yourself, daddio. Because it ain’t working.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:11 pm
Its an okay ad. Still waiting for the Haynes ad featuring Mayor Washington from 2010 to possibly resurface in the coming months as a counter.
Comment by Jorge Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:27 pm
Uh, so this same line of attack worked against Bill Brady in a big way. Anyone remember the Who is Bill Brady ads? From the same exact media firm?
This is tried and true. You can try to parse sentences, but this is a highly effective ad.
Most importantly, they played this on election night. Before the votes were in. That takes some balls. For everyone who wants Quinn to win, it’s a good sign. Very aggressive and very, very smart. Solid A.
Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:31 pm
I couldn’t help but be reminded of Scott Lee Cohen tonight. He had very little name recognition and bought a nomination too. Didn’t work out so well.
Odd that so many commenters are whining this doesn’t say enough…
Dudes - 6 months to go. Pace yourselves.
And, in reality, a lot of people are on spring break this week and next. Quinn has about 2-3 months to lay his foundation and define Rauner and then another 3-4 months to hammer that message home.
This sets Rauner up to not be able to pivot back to keeping or raising min. wage.
The ad says Rauner wants to drop the wage and is adamantly against raising it…. what’s he going to do now? 99.9% of people seeing the ad don’t know he already flip-flopped on it.
Given the low REPUBLICAN turnout it’s clear the GOP saw this as a ‘meh’ choice.
Rauner has next to no base to stand on. He eeked out a plurality when polls even up til yesterday showed him taking the nod in a cakewalk over Dillard.
ADDING: Surprised I’m not seeing more snark asking which mansion Bruce “9 Mansions” Rauner voted from?
ADDING #2: I’m sure the “1%? ONE PERCENT!?! I’m in the 0.01%!” ad is coming soon.
Quinn has fought for the little guy his whole political life.
Rauner… hasn’t. His words sound right to a weary electorate but they don’t ring true coming from him.
Comment by A. Nonymous Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:39 pm
Bill Brady? Who is this guy?~ Pat Quinn circa 2010
Who is the real Bruce Rauner?~ Pat Quinn circa 2014
Stick with what works, though the Glee ad is probably out of date.
Comment by Normalite Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:57 am
Pat Quinn has worked for one thing over his entire career: the political longevity of Pat Quinn. Nothing more, nothing less.
Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 1:05 am
===Smart, simple, brutal. Portrait of a heartless sinister billionaire.===
+1
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:49 am
I love it! Who is dis guy???
Comment by Undercover Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:08 am
===Pat Quinn has worked for one thing over his entire career: the political longevity of Pat Quinn. Nothing more, nothing less.===
Bill Clinton argued that “the first duty of any government is to try to keep its citizens safe” but it was Democrat John W. Davis who said, “The first duty of a politician is to get elected.”
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:22 pm
Pat Quinn spent a lot of time and money supporting, defending and campaigning with Rod Blagojevich. Yet, when Rod got caught, Pat seemed shocked. So sorry, Pat Quinn is the LAST person anyone should be listening to regarding who someone is.
Quinn defining Rauner is like Quinn defining Blagojevich - talking out his butt.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:18 pm
–Pat Quinn spent a lot of time and money supporting, defending and campaigning with Rod Blagojevich. Yet, when Rod got caught, Pat seemed shocked.00
Now you’re just making stuff up.
I think you might be able to find one positive quote about Blago from Quinn over six years.
Money? From Quinn to Blago? What are you talking about?
Shocked when he got caught? Who was shocked?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:29 pm