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The other side of reality

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Illinois

* Former state Rep. Mark Walker is a regular and much-appreciated commenter here. He wrote something yesterday about my column on the governor’s difficulty dealing with legislative realities that I thought I’d share…

Smart column.

You cannot make a budget deal with someone who will not accept political realities and solutions.

Rauner might counter with:

You cannot make make a budget deal with someone who will not accept economic realities and solutions.

He’s exactly right on the second point. There is far too little recognition by Democrats that something positive needs to be done for the business climate here.

* Mark goes on to say…

It comes down to the role and impact of the governor. It has been mythologized by some. Wordslinger is on point when he reminds us that the actions or policies of any governor have limited impact on the economy of a state, unless it’s investing for the long term. He also points out that if we look at the facts on the ground, not the theoretical visions, Rauner so far has caused fiscal destruction that will be hard to repair.

Again, right on all points.

But here’s the thing. This probably ain’t gonna end until everybody at the top figures out how to declare some sort of victory. So, even if the changes have only marginal impacts on the business climate (I would argue otherwise, but just saying), the governor is gonna need more than just a little something-something for his trouble. Period. Arguing otherwise is also not accepting a very concrete political reality.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:33 am

Comments

Mark- “You cannot make make a budget deal with someone who will not accept economic realities and solutions.”

****
This applies to Rauner as well. He has ignored the vast benefits of the social service networks, as well as the economies of university towns. He is not on track to be a long-term politician, so why does he need “something-something”? There were (and are) changes to laws and regulations in Illinois that are working or in the works prior to him becoming the “bidnessman savior” of Illinois. Some may need to be tweaked (worker’s comp), some are in process (re-districting), but none needed to be blown up!

I’ve said before, there are no consequences for Rauner’s actions to Rauner. So, the Legislature is going to have the be the “grownup” in the room, and work together to bring about needed changes, including tax increases as needed AND veto overrides.

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:43 am
Nope.

Comment by Niblets Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:43 am
Rahm is the only vocal pro business democrat in the state.

Senator Cullerton mocks those concerned about our business environment as “Republicans claiming all the jobs are moving to Florida” All the energy is with the Bernie Sanders, CTU wing of the party not with the centrist Clinton wing.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:44 am
Rauner doesn’t seem able to see either side of the argument. He can’t govern because he’s blinded by ideology, and he doesn’t care about the destruction he’s bringing to ’solve’ the problems.

Comment by How Ironic Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:45 am
Govoners and states can make a few minor moves to make the state more competitive with other states. This should be done but this govoner has so poisoned the atmosphere and added damage by creating a bigger budget hole it makes his turnaround aagenda moot. He nor Madigan can do much about terrible national policies like trade and healthcare and a lack of stimulative be technologies..actually he can do something there by spending more on higher Ed …….That is our sad reality.Real turnaround must be national.I voted Sanders for that.

Comment by illinois manufacturer Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:47 am
==he doesn’t care about the destruction he’s bringing==

I used to think that, but enlightened commententers here convinced me otherwise. Rauner wants the destruction.

Comment by AC Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:50 am
Change is good idea, it is essential, however to move to an extreme position (to quote the speaker) that blocks the necessary business of governing and stay there is not.

Comment by Niblets Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:51 am
The only other thing I would add to this discussion is that you cannot make a budget deal without a modicum of trust between the parties and respect for the institutions they represent.

Comment by GA Watcher Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:51 am
I’m with - Anon221. There is nothing good for the economy that BKR brings to the table. (Or find me an independent economist who says so.)

Comment by HistoryProf Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:51 am
There is some truth to this. I will admit that Madigan is out of touch with economic realities.

But left out is the tactic chosen by the Governor to ram his agenda through. Show me a past governor who has been unwilling to even entertain a budget discussion before a major platform of his is put on the books.

Is there horse trading on funding and line items and capital projects every year to make the budget more palpable for the leaders and Gov? Absolutely.

But what we are seeing is unprecedented. And whats to say he wont do it again next year? Again, trust.

Comment by Abe the Babe Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:53 am
Rich’s point is the nub of it. This is NOT a matter of right and wrong, and if people keep acting that way it never gets resolved.

Each side thinks it’s right and the other guys are wrong, and at this point no one is going to be convinced otherwise.

The only answer is to rise above principle, agree to disagree, and find enough common ground to work out a budget while reserving the right to resume fighting at a later date.

Comment by Harry Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:53 am
Lucky Pierre, That’s a challenge to you. Find an independent economist who says that ANY of Rauner’s turnaround agenda would substantially impact the state’s economy in a positive way. Then find me one who says that destroying social services and universities will HELP the state’s economy.

I’ll be waiting.

Comment by HistoryProf Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:53 am
Walk, always measured, always thoughtful. Everyone needs to find some common understanding before common ground can appear.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:55 am
I agree completely with Walker. The problem is that the governor has a fairly narrow view of the economic realities and solutions and seems to be singularly focused on eliminating collective bargaining as the only answer. This is the real “reform” that he seeks. Everything else is just a smoke screen.

Comment by pundent Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:55 am
=I used to think that, but enlightened commententers here convinced me otherwise. Rauner wants the destruction.==Exactly!

Comment by tobor Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:55 am
===Arguing otherwise is also not accepting a very concrete political reality.===

And yet it continues to happen. Over and over. And over.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 10:57 am
== Walk, always measured, always thoughtful. ==

Agreed.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:08 am
Last night - Justin Observer - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:30 pm: made a good set of suggestions on a way forward. They’re worth reading:

https://capitolfax.com/2016/04/04/rnug-begs-to-differ/#comment-12504897

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:09 am
The 3000 millionaires that have left Chicago for other cities, as reported somewhere online today, cited the violence in Chicago as the reason.

It was not wc reform, term limits, or any other TA rhetoric.

Violence.

Economic improvements could help some with violent choices, but the destruction of social services, mental health services, homelessness, etc. will possibly be the catalyst for a new marked era of violence.

There is no financial statement ROI on the basic needs of society

Comment by cdog Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:11 am
The best way for Springfield to help the Illinois business climate is to provide stability and predictability to the state budget process.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:12 am
cdog- +++

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:13 am
Yesterday’s quotes from Durkin makes you wonder if he is sincere about compromising with the Democrats:

Leader Durkin: “we are ready, willing and able to negotiate to resolve this budget impasse.”

Leader Durkin: “Dems shouldn’t do more ‘political propaganda bogus votes’ “

Leader Durkin: “it’s up to Democrat leaders in the House and Senate to decide if they want to pass a budget.”

Leader Durkin: “Democrats have a supermajority in both chambers. They can finish this right now on their own terms.”

“House GOP Leader Durkin on at what point ending impasse trumps Rauner agenda: We’re not going to give our votes away for nothing.”

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:14 am
== The best way for Springfield to help the Illinois business climate is to provide stability and predictability to the state budget process. ==

Spot on. Businesses can deal with high taxes and even bad work comp / anti-business laws. They can’t easily deal with major uncertainty.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:15 am
Brucie has never had to focus on anything long-term. His vulture capitalism career has always about the short-term turnaround. So he has no concept on how to think long-term. Combined w/ a lack of governing skills, he fulfilling his destiny for disaster.

Comment by D.P.Gumby Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:15 am
The poison pills Rauner insists on are blocking the process. He won’t give them up, no matter what the harm to the state and its citizens.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:16 am
=== … the governor is gonna need more than just a little something-something for his trouble. ===

Understood, but the “something-something” he’s been demanding included non-starters that Rauner has chosen to hold the budget hostage over. Fixing the problems caused by this hostage-taking will require heavier lifting as each day goes by. This heavier lift will mean that “something-somethings” both sides request will be harder for the other side to accept.

Unfortunately, there will be a lot of dead hostages before the “something-somethings” get worked out.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:19 am
>the governor is gonna need more than just a little something-something for his trouble

I’m not convinced he wants anything other than what he’s getting–the shakeout of social services and higher education, the devastation of state vendors and the overall state finances in order to accumulate leverage.

Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:19 am
>There is far too little recognition by Democrats that something positive needs to be done for the business climate here.

Agree. We need so badly a Republican political presence in Springfield (and I agree that Rauner is a Raunerite and not a Republican). It’s been missing a long time, cloaked in “no” and “present” votes, and the state is worse off for it. This is such a great opportunity for House Republicans to achieve what they view as positive change.

Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:22 am
I forgot to tip my hat to Walker. Too bad he’s not back in the House.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:25 am
The Dems are in touch with their constituents - and what a lot of people on the left see is 30 years of pro-business policy in this country that the average citizen has seen little benefit from, while the Rauner class has gotten even more wealthy. That’s the reality. Not just in Illinois, it’s everywhere. Bernie and Trump are symptoms of the underlying cause.

I say this as a Clinton supporter, free trader, generally pro-market person — even I realize something has got to change in the deal we’re offering to the average citizen.

Comment by ChicagoVinny Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:32 am
A challenge I see is that oftentimes (in my opinion) “pro-business” appears to be interchangeable with “anti-worker”. It seems as if we have a number of large businesses with a tax-neutral footprint due to the many breaks they can negotiate. That, to me, is pro-business. Driving down wages seems to me to be ‘anti-worker’.

Take Worker’s Compensation, one of the hot-buttons. You hear very little, if anything, from the Governor on why insurance rate decreases have not been passed on to businesses - when by his own WC commission, payouts and claims are both down. Is it because insurance rate reform is not ‘pro-business’? Or is it because the Governor wants to lower median wages since WC rates are based on worker salaries?

What we need is a fundamental realignment of how we collect revenue in Illinois. My personal preference is a progressive income tax - like in Wisconsin, or - more preferably, Minnesota. Of course, that takes a Constitutional amendment.

Madigan’s political reality is that he wants Democrats to stay in power. Instead of undercutting that base by getting Republicans onboard with the truly doable fixes - Rauner has chosen the “let it all burn” approach if he doesn’t get his way, which only supports Madigan’s reality. All Madigan has to do is sit back and let the Governor’s actions carry him forward.

Neither course of action is good for the state. But, as Charlie Wheeler has so often lamented - we have no statesmen anymore.

Comment by Name Withheld Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:33 am
- You cannot make make a budget deal with someone who will not accept economic realities and solutions. -

Can anyone point me to the evidence that Rauner has a firm grasp on economic realities and solutions?

Comment by Daniel Plainview Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 11:37 am
== The best way for Springfield to help the Illinois business climate is to provide stability and predictability to the state budget process. ==

I’m on board with this. I would add that revenue reform is the key to providing the much needed stability and predictability. Sorry, but with a few exceptions, further cuts are not the answer. Rotting infrastructure, destruction of Universities and social services are not pro-business policies, no matter what some ideologues might say.

Comment by X-prof Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:25 pm
Well I had a real passionate long response but the Gods are not pleased. Suffice it to say, I think Rauner should only get a certain petition for his trouble that he’s caused.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:14 pm
“Peace in our time” didn’t work then. I don’t think it will work now. Rauner wacked the wasp nest and a lot people are going to get stung.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:15 pm
=== There is far too little recognition by Democrats that something positive needs to be done for the business climate here. ===

With all do respect to Rep. Walker and our knowledgeable host, a number of business leaders have said that the single most important thing that the General Assembly can do to help our economy right now is pass a budget. Many Democrats concur with that view.

Second to that, business lobbyists would like a budget solution that minimizes the impact on job creation to the degree possible. So, for example, they’d like a tax hike skewed away from the corporate income tax, and they don’t want a surtax on millionaire CEO’s. That seems likely too.

Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:53 pm
== Well I had a real passionate long response but the Gods are not pleased ==

-Honeybear-

Had that happen. Often the second draft is much better …

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:55 pm
== So, for example, they’d like a tax hike skewed away from the corporate income tax, and they don’t want a surtax on millionaire CEO’s. That seems likely too. ==

Offer to eliminate the corporate tax in exchange for an equal revenue millionaire’s surcharge … and see which side the Millionaires are lobbying on.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:58 pm
RNUG lol, well I hate to say it but that was the 3rd draft that I was trying to post. The other two I erased before trying. Oh well, I know Rich has his reasons. I just have a huge problem with giving Rauner anything when he has manufactured a huge amount of the problem so that he can offer his solution. I have been reading a lot of Reinhold Niebuhr lately and his work, “Christian Realism”. It was during WWII and he was reorganizing theology in order to square turning the other cheek with what was happening in Europe. When Rauner destroyed so much and leaves so many lives in ruin (you can’t just get another job these days. Every job is sacred and precious) you can’t just give him turf and hope he’ll be appeased. I am angry and livid and my faith is being challenged in a similar way to Niebuhr’s. Incidentally, folk will know Neibuhr as the author of the “Serenity Prayer”.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:08 pm
Right now I’m in the mood of the Israeli soldiers marching up the ramp of Masada and pledging to “never forget”.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:11 pm
SPEND SPEND SPEND tax certainly isn’t the solution? Although it has been the norm for 2 decades.

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:13 pm
-Honeybear-

I often bit delete instead of post. Sometimes it’s even intentional.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:15 pm
I aspire to your self-discipline and control. I am passionate by nature on a normal day. I am thankful that Rich keeps me crated in a sense. I can tear up the couch in a New York minute. Speaking of that, Oscar pic Rich?

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:42 pm
-Honeybear-

Just remember Rauner is one of those things you can not change; you have to learn to work with him if you can’t go around him.

That’s something that Rauner doesn’t seem to have learned about Madigan; since the bulldozer didn’t work Rauner needs to try to deal … but now there will be a “bulldozer fee” added to any deal.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 4:00 pm
Should have added, it is Rauner who needs a deal, not Madigan. As to why, see “OW; Governor’s Own”

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 4:04 pm
The governor will “declare victory” when he’s good and ready.

We are many months past when the idea that the governor is naive or incompetent holds any water.

What is happening, is happening, because Rauner is using the most powerful office in the state to make it happen. If he wanted to stop it, he would.

For crying out loud, why do you think he poured millions into Ken Dunkin?

Don’t you see the bit? Like 47 pointed out, all the nonsense about how he can’t schedule a meeting? Do you really believe that?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 5:15 pm

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