It’s almost impossible to make a deal with somebody who won’t accept reality. And that’s been the case in Illinois for over a year, as Gov. Bruce Rauner has made one politically unrealistic demand after another while refusing to negotiate a budget until those demands were met, all the while blaming the entire impasse on House Speaker Michael Madigan’s intransigence.
Because the public debate is so wrapped up in partisanship and ideology, it’s been tough for a large segment of the population to wrap its collective mind around what’s really been going on. Many see this fight as the “new, good” Rauner versus the “old, bad” Madigan. While that argument certainly has plenty of merit, it’s not nearly the entire story.
It takes two to tango, and the truth is, and has always been, that Rauner doesn’t even have enthusiastic support among legislative Republicans for a big chunk of his “Turnaround Agenda,” particularly his demands which are opposed by labor unions. His complete agenda cannot pass both legislative chambers no matter who the House Speaker is.
After what happened the day after the March primary election, however, Rauner’s obvious inability to accept some stark political realities may finally help more folks understand what the rest of us have been seeing for the past year or more.
There is no doubt that Rauner had a bad March 15. While he wasn’t directly involved in Speaker Madigan’s Democratic primary, there’s zero doubt that the people who funded Madigan’s opponent were friendly to the governor’s interests. They made the campaign a referendum on Madigan’s entire career, and Madigan won handily.
The same money conduit Rauner used to fund other races, Dan Proft, somehow came up with $1.3 million in cash via a “dark money” group to give directly to Rep. Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago). All that other Raunerite money ($1.6 million) spent on Dunkin’s behalf didn’t just appear out of nowhere, either. And nobody really believes that the Illinois Chamber decided without prompting to all of a sudden run an additional million-dollar TV ad supporting Dunkin (who had one of the lowest Chamber ratings of any state legislator) without first consulting its own board of directors. That race became a very public referendum on Rauner, but Dunkin ended up winning just 32 percent of the vote. Oops.
And, of course, there’s state Sen. Sam McCann (R-Plainview). Rauner personally endorsed McCann’s GOP opponent Bryce Benton, funneled millions of dollars into Benton’s race, both via Proft and through a $50,000 contribution from himself, and personally campaigned with Benton in the days leading up to the election. He threw the kitchen sink at McCann, with a boatload of cash spent to make the race about how McCann was Speaker Madigan’s “favorite Senator.” Sen. McCann won by more than 5 percentage points. That’s a solid Rauner defeat in anyone’s book.
Everyone with even semi-honest eyes could see that Rauner was a big loser. Yes, he won several other primary races, but he basically steamrolled a bunch of unprepared amateurs with overwhelming financial resources and (in most cases) viciously negative ads. Without a doubt it’s important to win those little races (Madigan himself does it a lot), but the marquee contests against formidable foes—who are far more like the legislative Democrats Rauner will face in November—most definitely went south.
And, yet, there he was, claiming via press release that Madigan was the primary election’s real loser, even though all of Madigan’s candidates won.
“There were many races last night where special interests backed by Speaker Madigan failed to defeat Republican incumbents and candidates who support Governor Rauner’s call for structural reforms,” his post-election press release bellowed.
Somehow, in Rauner’s mind, it’s Madigan’s fault that some Republican hopefuls with a smidgeon of union backing lost their races to Rauner’s heavily financed candidates.
The excuse I heard afterward was that Madigan had issued his own press release pointing out the governor’s losses and the governor felt he needed to respond. Okay, I get that. Madigan didn’t have to rub Rauner’s nose in the previous day’s humiliations. But has nobody ever heard of taking the high road, or at least a road which exists in the real world?
Like I said at the beginning, accepting political reality is not this governor’s strong suit. If that wasn’t abundantly clear before the primary election, it surely became clear the day after.
And this governmental impasse ain’t ever gonna end until that stark fact of life changes.
- Saluki - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 8:53 am:
Hope the vacation was a good one. This column is spot on.
- Magic carpet ride - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:03 am:
Madigan learns from all elections, win or lose. Rauner just blames Madigan always.
- ZC - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:09 am:
With Rauner, the key words appears to be “winner” or “winning.” He’s obsessed with them in his public statements. I hope he’s not as obsessed with seeming to be them, inside his head.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:16 am:
I know you deserved a well earned vacation and I hope you thoroughly enjoyed the ball games, but loving God I was like a crazed scratching drug addict while you were gone. I kept obsessively checking to see if you’d posted something extra. I can’t tell you how happy I am that you are back.
To the post, again just an excellent article. I am saddened by Rauner again doubling down. This was his chance to change course and have cover. Yet he CHOOSES total war with Labor. The great battle approaches. Ragnarok is upon our threshold. No one wins if impasses is declared. Yes he will have delivered a crushing blow to the union of the public servants of the state, but most horrifying is that the smallest per capita workforce in the United States will surely collapse and fly apart at the seems. We are just at that point now. If impasse is declared it will literally be the final blow to the dam holding back the problems assailing the state. You doubt me? We shall see. Public Servants are by and large people just like me. I believe I am good and honorable. I raise by daughters well and through myself into my marriage. I am not greedy. I am not lazy. I care for the poor, disabled, and elderly. If Rauner takes me and other public servants out of action, who in the world will replace us. This is not a temp compatible job. You can’t outsource this stuff. You will lose us and we won’t come back. Four people in my office have told me they are interviewing and getting out. Don’t collapse the dam folks. We can’t control the waters.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:17 am:
Rich, welcome back.
Your work here is why Rauner needs a Paul Lis, someone who filters out the insane, and tries to at least be a sounding board to the reality.
Attention all the Raunerites “who” support John Kasich for Peesident…
Kasich, with Republican majorities, learned from voters, and learned to count (Kasich has always known how to count, but I digress… ) and realized doing the doable within voters’ approval matters when you want to be a functioning governor.
If you are one of those Raunerites supporting Kasich and you refuse to help Rauner learn, that speaks volumes on how you are owned, part and parcel, lock, stock, and barrel, and are not a co-equal partner aiding, youself, in governing Illinois.
This work is spot-on Rich, and those Kasich Raunerites are frankly the Owls I thought they were since jump street.
Of course, Rauner only wants to decimate unions. The Owl, in tweets this week talks about “limiting” prevailing wage and collective bargaining as “important… while illinois is held hostage to those poison pills.
Kasich learned, because he was teachable.
Rauner has proven, so far, he’s not.
- cdog - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:21 am:
Welcome back to the land where the green grass grows, and isn’t just desert-necessitated-artificial stuff. Ha! I bet there was one happy pup upon your return!
“Rauner doesn’t even have enthusiastic support among legislative Republicans for a big chunk of his “Turnaround Agenda,…””
Let’s hope the “yes men and women” Rauner must surround himself with learn that small powerful word, “NO.”
If Rauner was told “no” more often, if he surrounded himself with a “team of rivals” who challenged him and his over-simplified messaging, if he embraced the genius of the old-fashioned contrarian who could teach him the merits of the opposition, all for the sake of realistic input, maybe he wanted come across like such a mad man.
- Niblets - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:21 am:
Only Trump can solve these problems. Just ask him. The governor’s avoidance of reality is in the stye of “The Donald.” What planet are these folks from?
- kitty - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:22 am:
One of the most accurate and on point assessments I’ve read. With no indication that Mr. Rauner will re-consider his unreasonable demands to impose the T/A agenda, I hope that the GOP House members come to the understanding they’re in a position to possibly “broker” a deal with Dems. Possible only if they’re willing to do what is in the best interest of their constituents, social service providers and institutions which are being held as “fiscal hostages”, many of which are suffering a proverbial “slow death”.
- Century Club - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:23 am:
Welcome back! Nothing beats a spring training game.
I think the elections didn’t have an impact on Rauner because his core strategy is to disrupt the operations of the state, especially ones that Democratic constituencies rely on, until legislators will accept his turnaround agenda. He’s counting on legislators throwing trial lawyers, unions, etc. under the bus in order to save the programs they care about. Would it help the narrative for him to win in the Dunkin/McCann races, sure, but its not what he’s counting on.
- Formerly Known as Frenchie - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:23 am:
It would be interesting to do a linguistic analysis of some of Rauner’s recent speeches (to, apparently, folks in diners and high school students). He does seem to two things — embellish numbers (”Dozens! Dozens of companies just waiting to come to Illinois.”) and say the same things over and over again — especially (according to a news story from yesterday) the phrase “super-majority” (said, apparently, 17 times in a speech and in post-speech comments).
These are pretty telling details — the embellishment (”Dozens!”) and the repeated phrases. I suspect Rauner is a guy that has a lot of obsessions — deep, deep obsessions — and these two details are “tells”.
I also suspect the embellishments tend to grow larger as he becomes more frustrated.
I wish someone would ask him about the “dozens” of companies just chomping at the bit to come here but can’t do it until Madigan destroys unions. “Dozens” implies at least — at least — 24 companies. But possibly 36 or 48. That’s a lot — a lot — of imaginary companies.
- AC - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:26 am:
It’s clear now that the governor could end the impasse, but he won’t be the one to do so. The question is, will it be House Republicans, the Illinois Supreme Court changing the dynamics of the situation, or will we have to wait until January and then only if if folks “vote accordingly”?
- TD - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:36 am:
The Speaker certainly plays his games, but the Governor blatantly lies. It isn’t acceptable when politicians run for office, and it certainly isn’t acceptable once elected.
- Wensicia - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:38 am:
==Rauner’s obvious inability to accept some stark political realities==
That’s it. He can’t see past his agenda and refuses to accept his money can’t buy him the votes he needs. Unless and until the ILGOP acknowledge this disaster for what it is, I don’t see a way out for the next two and a half years.
- JackD - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:42 am:
Reality isn’t his “strong suit”? Does he have a strong suit? So far he’s doing his impression of Peter Pan; refusing to grow up.
- Not quite a majority - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:44 am:
Welcome back, Rich! Hope the vacation was a fantastic as it sounds (never been to spring training, so slightly jealous, but I’ll get over it)
The problem at this point is that even if they got a deal, would anyone really believe that BVR would back out two Fridays after signing on to it? MOUs are one thing, but I suspect there are many members on both sides who don’t think he negotiates in good faith. Why stick your neck out on a vote that’s already a sour taste in your mouth only to have one of the negotiators stab you in the back two weeks later?? There is no incentive to here for anyone.
- TigersBaseball - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:44 am:
In a way, Mr. Rauner reminds me of Raymond Tusk from House of Cards. Both are stubborn, have not-so-subtle disdain for the process, and the tools at their disposal to “fix” what they perceive as the problem.
While Tusk got burned — hard — when he went toe-to-toe with Underwood, Tusk did what Rauner hasn’t yet done: learned his lesson, slunk into the shadows, and waited for the right time to return to prominence to regain the upper hand.
Mr. Rauner may do well to consider re-evaluating the landscape, conceding on entrenched positions, and wait for the right time to gain an upper hand, rather than try to maintain a not-so-carefully crafted illusion that he has full control of Springfield.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Great article Rich and welcome back.
Rauner is really divorced from political reality, especially when Rep. Franks says it’s over for the anti-union parts of Rauner’s agenda.
If Rauner cared, wouldn’t he have given up what he couldn’t get by now, since it is beyond clear that he doesn’t have the votes to pass his agenda? Some think it has nothing to do with delusion or incompetence, that this is part of a strategy to squeeze funds out of and cut social services.
- Norseman - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:49 am:
It’s hard for Rauner to take the high road when he’s been driving on the low road so long.
You and so many others have been trying to give him directions to the high road, but he simply ignores them and speeds on down the low road.
- RNUG - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:54 am:
Rich, spot on.
Rauner is never ever going to move. The only slim hope the state’s citizens have is if all, repeat, ALL the GOP legislators decide to collectively rebel against Rauner. It’s going to have to be 100% participation, or nearly so, in order to make it clear they won’t tolerate any retaliation by the Governor.
I’ll bet on the 2018 general election first …
- Austin Blvd - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:06 am:
Rich, welcome back and great column.
A query for all to ponder…
In your column, you write:
“Rauner doesn’t even have enthusiastic support among legislative Republicans for a big chunk of his “Turnaround Agenda…”
Just who are these men and women of courage?
Durkin’ and Radogno never mention them. The governor never mentions them. Why, they never even mention themselves.
To the outsiders, they are like the proverbial tree falling in the forest.
Obviously inconsequential but definitely with the opportunity to be consequential.
Perhaps these GOP legislators need a leader who can lead them out of the woods and to the table.
Way too much to ask for, I know.
- Jimmy H - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:12 am:
Excellent column Rich! It’s difficult for me to find any fault on the part of Madigan. He has been passing appropriations, if you speak to Social Services and Higher Ed.; it is exactly what they need to survive. The appropriations would give those that are dying a lifeline. I think Leslie Munger has said she would prioritize payments to Higher Ed. if there was an appropriation. I think she would do the same for Social Services. I’m concerned about Rauner’s mental fitness, if this is a separation from reality on his part or if it is willful, it is clear that Illinois cannot survive his state of mind. For me this extends to the Republican members also with them being in “mind lock” with Rauner. They are willing to let Social Services die, as well as Chicago State, Eastern IL U, and others. Already irreparable harm has been done to people and the infrastructure. The line that Republican members throughout Illinois, is parroting, “there’s no money to pay for appropriations”, does not wash. Even the Republican appropriation bills have not been balanced with funding sources.
- Mama - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:18 am:
Welcome back Rich. I missed your reports and the bloggers.
- walker - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:19 am:
Smart column.
You cannot make a budget deal with someone who will not accept political realities and solutions.
Rauner might counter with:
You cannot make make a budget deal with someone who will not accept economic realities and solutions.
It comes down to the role and impact of the governor. It has been mythologized by some. Wordslinger is on point when he reminds us that the actions or policies of any governor have limited impact on the economy of a state, unless it’s investing for the long term. He also points out that if we look at the facts on the ground, not the theoretical visions, Rauner so far has caused fiscal destruction that will be hard to repair.
- Mama - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:24 am:
Rich, do you think Rauner plans to run a Democrat against McCann in the General?
2. Will he run a Republican against Madigan in the General?
3. Are there any other Republicans he is planning to finance to run against the Democrats?
- PublicServant - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:25 am:
As long as Rauner gets to choose his preferred hostages, this situation will continue. Don’t send him the K-12 bill. Cite the lack of agreement on revenue to pay for it, or the lack of a complete budget for the state. Also, the Dems need to pound home the veto issue and lack of a submitted budget on Rauner’s part to counter the Rauner “Supermajority” and “4 Billion” propaganda.
- DuPage Bard - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:35 am:
He doesn’t care. He will not change or concede. It’s like telling a 10 year old- it can’t always be everyone else’s fault. The 10 year old will never accept ownership and will never stop blaming others.
- NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:50 am:
Madigan obviously does not learn. He lost the last governors election and now he has spent the last year trying to deny reality. He has been in charge of leading this state to the edge of fiscal ruin for decades. But this is Rauners fault? After just a little over a year? I don’t know whether to laugh or cry at the denial demonstrated in these comments. OMG, how cynical can all of you be? This is why so many average people are sick and tired of politics and those who make their living off of politics. It’s all about greed, either greed for money or greed for power.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:55 am:
===But this is Rauners fault?===
Rauner owns his vetoes. Only a governor can veto, lol.
===Madigan obviously does not learn. He lost the last governors election and now he has spent the last year trying to deny reality.===
lol, lemme guess, it’s Speaker Madigan and the Vetoes he controls?
When Rauner gets 60 and 30, get back to us…
- Independent Retiree Lawyer Journalist - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 10:56 am:
Welcome back, Rich. Great column! Rauner is like the hitter with the loopy swing who won’t adjust. He’s not coachable. Players like that kill the team.
Meanwhile, he comes off like Woody Allen in a scene from ‘Everything you wanted to know about…’ Caught, he says with a straight face, ‘Woman? What woman??’
- Wensicia - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 11:12 am:
==After just a little over a year?==
How long does Rauner get before he owns any of this mess? Two years? Four?
“After all, it’s just his first term.”
- olddog - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 11:31 am:
=== Madigan obviously does not learn … has been in charge of leading this state to the edge of fiscal ruin for decades. ===
Nice talking point, but it has no basis in fact. Madigan has been Speaker of the House since 1983. During that time we have had four Republican governors and two Democratic governors. Somehow Madigan and the other leaders managed to negotiate budgets with Thompson, Edgar and Ryan — three of the four Republicans — and both Democrats. In some ways, Madigan’s relations with the Republicans have been more productive than the Democrats. Yet last year a rookie governor who has never held elective office comes in, refuses to negotiate, vetoes the budget bills, and somehow the consequences of his action — or failure to act — is Madigan’s fault? If we had a minimally competent governor, we would have a budget. Period. Paragraph. End of story.
- Omega Man - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 12:39 pm:
Welcome back, Rich! Let the fun begin!
- Countdown - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 12:58 pm:
2 years, 9 months until inauguration day…tick tock…tick tock. #TurnedNothingAround
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 1:33 pm:
I think the governor is comfortable with his alternative reality, as are the yes-crew directly dependent on him for a paycheck. They’re not out anything.
Obviously, the governor doesn’t employ anyone that can tell him when he’s wrong.
It’s really all on GOP GA members. Virtually all of them have marched lock-step with Rauner on just about every issue since January 2015.
The irony is, for years, GOP GA members complained that they didn’t have a seat at the table.
Right now, if they chose, they could run the table and dictate terms to Madigan and Rauner.
If they don’t do it now, they never will, and never really need to be heard from, again.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 3:38 pm:
OW, love the Kasich remarks. I’m afraid however that Kasich is being re-corrupted. I’ve seen several articles that show a relapse in his “learning”. It reminds me of one of the most debated theological issues, soteriology, the study of salvation. Can Kasich lose his “learning”? Or once achieved is it confirmed by “works” or is it simply grace. I’m beginning to doubt that some can learn or be reformed or even moved. I have no faith that Rauner can be saved which puts me in very unfamiliar territory. Rauner quite literally challenges my faith as do many others right now.
- Rockdog - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 4:25 pm:
Rauner is way over his head in fixing any of this mess permanent damage over union stuff that saves 1.4 percent boys he’s smart
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 5:42 pm:
- Honeybear -
Thanks, we’re all learning, I am constantly learning, it’s just that Rauner refuses to see what could be learned.
- peon - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 6:51 pm:
The Governor may not be interested in political reality, but political reality is interested in the IL GOP representatives.
- Mama - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 7:29 pm:
== RNUG - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 9:54 am:==
“I’ll bet on the 2018 general election first … ”
RNUG, I know you are right, but I sincerely hope you are wrong.
- RNUG - Monday, Apr 4, 16 @ 8:30 pm:
- Mama -
Me too.