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* Russ Stewart writes…
Make no mistake about it: The Republicans are on the verge of eradication, if not extinction.
* And the Politico reports…
Shellshocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s money.
The double shot of bad news had one veteran Republican House member worrying aloud that the party’s electoral woes — brought into sharp focus by Woody Jenkins’ loss to Don Cazayoux in Louisiana on Saturday — have the House Republican Conference splitting apart in “everybody for himself” mode. […]
In a piece published in Human Events, the Republicans’ onetime captain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, warned his old colleagues that they face “real disaster” on Election Day unless they move immediately to “chart a bold course of real reform” for the country.
And in a closed-door session at the Capitol, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told members that the NRCC doesn’t have enough cash to “save them” in November if they don’t raise enough money or run strong campaigns themselves.
* From Gingrich’s piece…
The current generic ballot for Congress according to the NY Times/CBS poll is 50 to 32 in favor of the Democrats. That is an 18-point margin, reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster. […]
The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.
This model has already been tested with disastrous results.
* Question: Is the GOP doomed? What about in Illinois?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 9:44 am
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In Illinois, it’s doomed so long as the leadership remains rudderless and there is no unifying candidate that can appease conservatives and the old guard moderates. Quit frustrating since the IL Dems with all of their in-fighting and a scandal-ridden Governor are ripe for the picking. Maybe State Sen. Bill Brady can unify the party…come 2010.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 9:48 am
Doomed, but only in 2008. It will repair itself and run strong in 2010. It’s a natural, cyclical thing.
However, in Illinois - where Republicans should be on the upswing while the Democrats are acting like spoiled bratty children - the ILRepubs don’t have a strong leader who is ready and willing to throw punches. Nor do I really see one waiting in the wings. ILRepubs may be doomed for longer than their federal counterparts.
Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 9:59 am
The GOP seems to be doomed at the national level, I dont see republicans winning back majoritys in the House or Senate any time soon. Republicans need to target the RNCC money at specific races this election cycle and everyone else is going to be on thier own.
In these hard times people are voting on who is going to help thier pocketbook, and the belief is that democrats are the ones who will do that.
However these type of declarations have been issued before, and everything ebbs and flows with time.
In Illinois the republican party reminds me of the titanic. However they look like a better option since the democratic leaders (Blago, Emil) seem to be turning the Democratic party into the Hindenburg.
The most pathetic part of it all is that Republicans seem to have a deficit of candidates to run all across the state. In this environment you would think that Republicans would have challengers like never before. I wonder how many Democratic office holders are running completely uncontested this fall. I would venture a guess 50% or more.
Comment by Speaking At Will Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:03 am
Former Speaker Gingrich is absolutely correct. Republicans must have a strong platform from which to operate. They don’t at this time. Their presidential candidate does not bring the party together.
In Illinois, the GOP is at the bottom end of a cycle of their own making. When in power in the governor’s office, it appears the party didn’t have succession plans in place. They didn’t grow their own candidates–grooming young Republicans to climb the elected ladder. Until they have some young candidates to boldly run, the Illinois Republican Party is going to take an ineefectual backseat to the current inept Democrats. And that’s a shame for Illinois.
Comment by Fan of the Game Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:10 am
IMHO, no particular party is necessary, and I wish both would drop the old-school playground attitudes.
For too long it’s been “R” or “D”, when what we’ve really needed all along is “L” (”Leadership”).
Partisan politics is antiquated and divisive. A country with “United” in its name certainly should behave as such, and for that to happen, it should start at the top.
Now, to answer the question directly, I think the R party is doomed for now, until the people grow tired of the D way, then we’ll likely hop back over the fence.
Comment by This Guy Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:15 am
They need to stop with the Speaker Pelosi crap and get back on message. The ILGOP is dead
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:16 am
I am beginning to believe that our society wants a Mommy now and then. So it votes for the Mommy Party.
Every generation believes that it can vote themselves rich without consequences. It gets the electoral power to make it happen and votes themselves free lunches, and freebies to everyone - just to be ‘fair’. Then the bills pile up and our economy plummets, government reminds us that it hasn’t a clue in implementing any plans, and voters start to see their taxes. Their naive pacifism creates wars instead of preventing them, and they discover that foreign enemies really do exist and hate us for being us.
Then they come running back to Daddy, and vote in the Republicans.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:16 am
That Russ Stewart column isn’t very optimistic then again politics rarely is. Republicans almost seem like they’re dead in Illinois. It would be nice if they weren’t obsessed with who’s more conservative or who’s more moderate.
Comment by Levois Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:16 am
But they have the dreamiest web site and TC & The Sock Puppets….isn’t that enough?
OK, but they doomed when the brain trust put up jRYAN in ‘02.
This conversation almost as useless as yesterday’s link on AccordianGal.
Comment by Wild Bill Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:17 am
Another question is…how many Repubs are fed up with the whole mess…and just don’t care any longer. Hum? Apathey can breed inaction…
Comment by Siyotanka Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:20 am
The GOP is not doomed, but it sure isn’t strong.
Look at the “bench”: Who does the ILGOP have that is ready to step up? Who do they have who will be seriously considered for a top office? Aaron Schock?
When you look at the Dems, you see loads of young (relatively) talent. Lisa, Alexi, Kwame Raoul, Coreen Gordon. Even Halvorson and Foster are relatively young. Any of those would be (or will be in a few years) serious contenders for a Senate seat or Gov.
Any of them would be favorites over anybody at all from the GOP, with the possible exception of a comeback from Jim Edgar or Jim Thompson.
The GOP just doesn’t have people coming up who can compete. They need to make some serious efforts to develop young talent.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:21 am
Just as the Whig party faced extinction, the Republicans may well be practically extinct in the next 10 years. But as we have seen in our national elections, there is a cyclical nature in our politics. Right after 9/11, whod’a thunk the nation would be ready to elect a then-unknown man of color who was raised as a youth in a Muslim country in 2008? Also, whod’a thunk the Democratic presidential primary would be as divisive as any Democratic-Republican general election, with the old guard of elderly and blue-collar (as well as many Republicans) siding with one candidate and new voters and progressives (as well as many Republicans) siding with the other?
If the Republican party dies, look for a Democratic party divided by its conservative and liberal factions to fill in the void.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:22 am
The ILGOP has been dead for sometime. It seems like they’re all sitting around waiting for the Gov’s missteps to bring them back inti power. They don’t seem to realize there are other Dems willing and able to pick uo the pieces.
Comment by Madison County Voter Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:22 am
Bush doesn’t wear the jacket alone for the GOP woes; the Congressional GOP alienated their base with their wild pork-barrel spending and absolute refusal to provide oversight of Administration excesses. They were conservatives in what sense of the word?
The national GOP won’t go the way of the Whigs; never underestimate the ability of the national Dems to screw up a good thing. But the GOP does need to cast out the cheap hustlers and hacks and actually be who they pretend to be — fiscally responsible, protectors against big government. Look to Dick Lugar as a model.
As things stand now, the Illinois GOP will probably lose the Weller seat and Kirk, too. Bean and Foster will hold Crane and Hastert’s old seats (amazing). No statewide office and a minority in both GA houses — that’s rock bottom.
They have a gift in Blagojevich. They need a star to rally around. Can Patrick Fitzgerald be persuaded to take the Big Jim Thompson route to the governor’s mansion? He doesn’t seem like he wants it, but who else is there?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:31 am
[…] Rich Miller asks the question that my series on the Party of Lincoln ties to answer. Is the Illinois Republican Party doomed? […]
Pingback by Ora et Labora » Blog Archive » Answering Capitol Fax’s Question of the Day Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:34 am
I don’t think so. It would be difficult to build a new, viable political party which has more than fringe appeal–the Greens, the Libertarians, they have good ideas but building mass appeal would be a huge leap from their current state. Someday, perhaps, but I bet not in the lifetimes of most of us. And a one party country would be a disaster.
Power really does corrupt–as we have seen in Illinois, which is already a one-party state.
The Democrats in Illinois, despite setting a plague of thieves on state government, are likely
to be ascendant a while longer. The Repubs should be building a national and local farm team of young people with inspiring person histories and reform tendencies….Bobby Jindal comes to mind. An inspiring personal history approach has helped Obama enormously, and there are likely any number of others out there, should the Republicans stop plundering their own party resources and actually pay attention to the future. Example: lose the Kjellander clones…wealthy elderly hacks who can’t let go.
Of course, a one party state is so not good for Illinois citizens. Someday the Dems will start eating themselves, given all the corruption, patronage and cronyism currently visible, which is likely only a fraction of the real corruption.
The Republicans would then have a chance to step in…but they need viable young candidates and they have almost none now. If Obamamania has shown us one thing, it is that masses of people
want change, even if they haven’t clearly articulated to themselves what that change would like like. Right now, to an awful lot of people think change looks like Obama. But he doesn’t have a monopoly on the change agent role. Repubs,as well as Dems, should be able to take advantage of that.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:35 am
it’s cant get much worse. i have said this before, as have many others, but at the end of the day elections are about likeability and there just are not many likeable gop candidates outs there right now-lots of rich guys who have little to offer, but thats about it.
Comment by downstate GOP faithless Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:42 am
Rich, this is the the question that my series on the Party of Lincoln ties to answer.
I don’t believe that smaller government, greater liberty, and championing self-reliance are principles ready to vanish from the American character.
On the other hand, the Illinois Republican Party is doing a poor job articulating itself.
There is an issue of credibility.
And, as I will discuss tomorrow, they have no clear vision for regaining electoral success.
In order to rebound, I believe there must be deep soul searching and long-term planning.
It will also take a long-term committment.
Comment by Brian McDaniel Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:46 am
The truth is, the IL GOP is being held hostage by the country-clubber left-wing [hey, I best not see this post deleted for saying those four words!] who happen to be party leaders. As long as THEY are calling the shots the IL GOP is not going to gain back much even with the ultra-unpopular governor. Nationally, yeah they’re going to lose more seats because they have more to defend than the Dems. President…it’s a tossup, but Obama gets the nomination McCain best demonstrate how inexperienced and unknowledgable Obama is about the mechanics of the national economy and world affairs cause Obama credidentals are quite weak on it all.
Comment by Crimefighter Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:48 am
The GOP blew it when they failed to bring good people up through the ranks. They also failed when they brought Keys in. George Ryan hurt us but so did running JIM Ryan right after George stepped down.
The Upside is when the GOP had the house, senate and the offices they did the same thing as the Current Dems and took a beating, so if History repeats itself, the Dems are in for Voter backlash since they can’t get along and the Gov will most likely get indited.
Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:54 am
They will suffer big setbacks. The Strenght of the republicans used to be thier ability to act together, while the dems tended to fall into inner turmoil.
The repubs have let a number of grass roots conservative groups drive wedges into the party. They are their own wors enemy. A party platform based on abortion, anti-gay marriage, and anti-immigration is driving away the moderate members and voters who decide elections. They need a strong centrist platform to come back.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:57 am
VM summed up (admittedly unintentionally) the problem with the GOP on the national level:
* ” Every generation believes that it can vote themselves rich without consequences. It gets the electoral power to make it happen and votes themselves free lunches, and freebies to everyone - just to be ‘fair’.”
Sort of like tax cuts for everyone, going to war but not paying for it, adding a new prescription drug giveaway and various “tax rebates” while not cutting the size of government?
* “Then the bills pile up and our economy plummets, government reminds us that it hasn’t a clue in implementing any plans,”
You mean like when all that government borrowing causes a recession, and when the government is faced with a hurricane about to strike a major city and does nothing, and then completely screws up the recovery?
* “Their naive pacifism creates wars instead of preventing them, and they discover that foreign enemies really do exist and hate us for being us.”
You mean like going to war on “bad intelligence” against a foe that we did not need to fight, while watching people like Bin Laden and his friends in the Taliban go free while we are bogged down elsewhere?
That’s the problem for the GOP. They’ve met the enemy, but they haven’t figured out it is them.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:01 am
Crimefighter and Ghost’s last posts explain the dilemma. They can’t even agree if they should turn more conservative or more moderate. Recent history tells us when they turn more conservative (Alan Keyes) they don’t win, and when they turn more moderate (JBT) they don’t win either. Hmmm…could it be something else?
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:05 am
Wilderness. 40 years.
Ok, maybe not 40. But it’s fairly clear Americans have seen the result of conservative policies — foreign and domestic — and don’t like what they see. Conservatives have had a decent run of 20+ years between White House and/or Congress, but those chickens are coming home to roost.
Newt notes that Dems are even outpolling GOPs on tax issues and handling terrorism, go figure.
Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:09 am
While I think McCain still has a chance to win in November, the GOP in IL is in deep trouble. Most of their future stars have either left office or don’t even get involved anymore. Downstate GOP leaders do not understand the suburbs which is where they have to win to be successful. The darkest hour has not yet arrived. It’s sad.
Comment by GOP Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:24 am
The image problem of the National GOP is killing an already barely living state party. The problem is that the State GOP is doing nothing on the ground to reorganize a future. They are missing huge opportunities in Chicago and Cook county were the Dem leadership is pathetic. I’ve knocked on thousands of doors in Chicago. There are a good number of self identifying Republicans and swing voters that would vote for a sensible urban moderate Republican (not Peraica.) The problem is there is no Republican organizing on the ground. All their committeemen do is attend parties!
Comment by clj Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:26 am
The ultra-conservative faction of the national Republican Party put much more emphasis on social issues than on fiscal and governmental issues. If they would return to a platform of fiscal responsibility, small government, national defense, and more power (and money) in the hands of individuals, the comeback would be almost easy.
However, when the hot-button topics are abortion and stem cells and the death penalty, lots of people move away.
Comment by Fan of the Game Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:29 am
I never understood how the Republicans were elected in Illinois. This is not a Republican state. The demographics are against it.
What we’ve seen is poor Democratic candidates lose to Republican ones. So, instead of building up a party base and ideology that fit Illinois, we saw a Republican state leadership without depth.
Are they extinct? They never were ‘tinct’, in my opinion.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:30 am
The IL GOP will rise again. It will rise up in part when the Democrats do the right thing, and finally make the income tax progressive. The IL GOP is weak because the IL Dems - and especially Rod - finance this state too much like Republicans. Sales tax hikes, “sin” taxes that hit their own constituents disproportionately, borrowing indefinitely from the future (OK, that’s Bush Republicanism); this is great for keeping the Dems in power, but the lack of revenue is starting to choke this state.
It’s easy to throw stones from a distance, because of course it’s a political nightmare to hike a tax rich people pay. But it is the right moral thing to do, at this time. At some point Rod will be history and hopefully the Dems will do the right thing, and that will put the Repubs back in this. As someone already said, it’s cyclical.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:36 am
I think Fan of the Game has it right. If McCain wins, that will be the reason. It’s also the reason why Rush and some of these other hot heads have issues with McCain. There’s a fundamental shift going on in Republican politics…and some people are going to get left behind. As for the ILGOP…there’s no one waiting in the wings.
Comment by Deep South Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:39 am
===This is not a Republican state. The demographics are against it.===
The key to Republican victory in Illinois has been - since the late 1970s - winning the votes of suburban women. Thompson, Edgar, GRyan managed to do that. Suburban women turned on Carol Moseley-Braun and that gave a huge boost to Peter Fitzgerald.
As the years have passed, suburban women have become less GOP-leaning liberal independent and more Dem-leaning liberal independent. It’s been a terribly costly demographic shift for the Republican Party.
There are other reasons - African-American and Latino turnout, for example - but that shift by suburban women has been behind much of the Dem dominance. W made an already deteriorated situation (GRyan) much worse. And it’s why hardcore conservatives face a huge disadvantage statewide.
You have to play the game on the ground you have.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:39 am
Six, I think JBT failed to establish herself with a message, much less as a moderate. She did come across as a dog lover.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:40 am
Until Republicans at all levels can galvanize their conservative and moderate factions into one voting bloc on election day, they will continue to be unsuccessful. It never ceases to amaze me how the dems can unite organized labor and the gay communities to vote together in a cooperative way to accomplish their goals.
Comment by One of the 35 Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:53 am
It never ceases to amaze me how the dems can unite organized labor and the gay communities to vote together in a cooperative way to accomplish their goals.
Or African Americans, Latinos, working professional women, teachers and university professors, retired people, etc. etc. many groups of who are seemingly suspicious of one another at various times.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:09 pm
The Bush Administration has been a colossal failure on almost every front, primarily because extreme ideology,rather than practicality, has domininated everyhing they do. It’s pretty clear that Bush will be categorized as the worst President in modern history. Nixon was competent despite the serious damge he did, and Carter was relatively harmless in his ineptitude.Bush has done real long term damage!
Frankly, the national Republican Party deserves to be punished at the polls for their abysmal performance. It will be punished by Democrats and also independents in November Lots of Republicans are demoralized and won’t vote. I don’t think MCCain will be able to ride the Reverend Wright Horse very far in the fall. Obama will beat McCain because of the Bush Adminstration’s terrible record.
It looked bad for the Republicans after Watergate and Nixon. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan enabled them to rebound and ascend in four short years.
Whoever is elected has a tough road ahead of them. Clinton or McCain would definitely be transitional Presidents. Obama has tranformational potential- so I disagree with Stewart’s analysis.
Illinois Republicans will be irrelevant - 2008 should be rock bottom for them. If they can bring themselves to support candidates with moderate positions on social issues, they should be able to rebuild and win support in the suburbs, given the Democratic dysfunction in Springfield. But I don’t see any Illinois Republican political saviors on the horizon. Illinois Democrats deserve to be punished, but social/cultural conservatism seems to be the Republican Achilles heel in Illinois. It won’t sell in the Chicago metropolitan area.
Comment by Captain America Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:13 pm
Russ Stewart begins with some very good points, but as he sometimes does, goes on to invalidate his entire argument by making an extreme conclusion. A “dead” Republican party replaced by a single party system which will then fragment into wings equating to new parties? Come on, this isn’t Isreal or some other smaller country with numerous viable and well funded factions and a PARLIAMENTARY system of government.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:16 pm
I don’t think you can overemphasize the point Rich just made. Look at where the GOP is getting clocked, and it’s the suburbs. When I grew up in DuPage County not too long ago, it was as solid red as anywhere in the country. Now, there’s barely a safe congressional seat for the GOP in the collar counties. The Senate Dems cleaned the Republican clocks — and secured a meaningless veto-proof majority — by taking out the Republicans in the suburbs. And Madigan’s expanded the Dems’ suburban base in the House from the south suburbs to the northwest ‘burbs. It’s like some elaborate pincer move.
I don’t know what the GOP’s message would have to be to retake their home territory. But they did pretty well campaigning hard on lower taxes, yet still delivering good schools, nice parks and decent roads.
Should they be more moderate? Should they be more conservative? They just need to be more practical. If there’s anything Springfield needs right now, it’s a little common sense. You would think that would be an easy sell.
Comment by Just Sayin' Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:18 pm
I took Stewart’s arguments to apply to the GOP NATIONALLY. Hell, it’s no “story” that the party is dead in Illinois. Changing demographics is a big part of this. The immigrant and minority populations of this state have skyrocketing, and they’re a traditional Dem voting base. Also, Illinoisians have on the whole been pretty much centrist-leaning, and the RNC’s national agenda is just too far to the right for Illinois. In a nutshell, the national party agenda is killing the state party in Illinois, because it refuses to moderate itself specifically and distance itself publicly from the national agenda and “core values” because it is afraid of even more backlash from the “conservative” minority, which is extremely well funded, vocal and active.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:26 pm
I am a past County Republican Chair and current County Board Chair. I was active during the Edgar years and you could be proud of your candidate and were not ashamed to say you worked for the State. Between Ryan and Blago, it is now an embarassement to say you are connected with the state. GOP needs to get some common sense and realize most voters are moderate and if the can’t move to the middle of the road they are doomed to be irrelevant minority party for years to come. We are missing a golden opportunity in the next few years if we don’t come together with decent reasonable candidates.”Thus endeth the reading of the word.”
Comment by The Federalist Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:33 pm
The GOP will emerge everywhere triumphant; their strength is as the strength of ten, because their hearts are pure. McCain tsunami from both coasts will leave cyanotic Illinois as part of the bed of a much-widened Mississippi River.
Comment by The Irascible Fachna Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:33 pm
“As you sow so shall you reap.”
Comment by Ahem Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:43 pm
It is always hilarious at this point when people ask the question - what is wrong. A lot of answers always come up that are completely wrong.
The biggest answer is typically “The Republicans are too conservative”, or “appeal to suburban women, etc.”
The main reason why Republicans cannot make any traction is that they have said they are one thing, but then don’t follow up. When Newt did the “Contract with America” and then they actually DID it, they succeeded. Recently, Republicans have said they are for lower taxes, less government, and an end to corruption. However, they have raised taxes, approved (and championed) big program increases and there has been a parade of corruption.
The answer is simple - just do what you say you are going to do. People want to trust their politicians, but they haven’t had much of an opportunity lately.
Comment by trafficmatt Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:48 pm
Matt,
If your argument were correct, how do you explain Blago, Stroger, Daley …? You are basically arguing that the Democratic machine has remained in power for 75 years because people “trust” them. I really don’t think that’s the case.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 12:59 pm
>Crimefighter and Ghost’s last posts explain the dilemma. They can’t even agree if they should turn more conservative or more moderate. Recent history tells us when they turn more conservative (Alan Keyes) they don’t win, and when they turn more moderate (JBT) they don’t win either. Hmmm…could it be something else?
Alan Keyes was unelectable from the start, plus he was from out of state and he was brought in solely to negate any use of the race card. If only Peter Fitzgerald ran for reelection…
BTW the party is dominated by the moderate wing. It’s bloody hard to find an actual conservative around here, as they’ve been shoved outta sight.
And double BTW, where’s a book on Great Moderates in American History?
Comment by Crimefighter Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 1:00 pm
Crimefighter: yes, it WAS something else. It was 12-14 months of 20 times daily “What’s she thinking” commercials that JBT didn’t have the money to effectively respond to. It’s party loyalty-tradition, minority and immigrant population surge, and national GOP “conservatism” that gives the Dems a huge edge and kills the GOP in this state.
What is the “something else” you’re alluding to???
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 1:12 pm
In Illinois there is not much in the farm system for the Republicans. There just are not many up and comers. The 25 years of Republican rule in IL killed the party. Younger pols came into power (30 years ago)and held on to it until they were old and gray. Very few youngsters were let into the club during those 25 years of rule. Now we can see the results.
On the national level the Repub’s are too fractured, too old, too male and too white. They need a lot of new “talent” as well to widen their appeal.
I do think with the way Hillary and Barak have been beating up each other we will be saying “President McCain” come January. Then we will all look at each other and say “How did that happen?”
Comment by Dirt Guy Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:02 pm
===I do think with the way Hillary and Barak have been beating up each other we will be saying “President McCain” come January.===
Maybe, and I’ve wondered about this as well. But then I was reminded by the PBS documentary about George HW Bush’s 1980 presidential bid. Bush blasted Reagan, mocked him for his “Voodoo Economics” and stayed in the primary battle into May.
Then again, Carter’s primary opposition by Ted Kennedy undoubtedly contributed to his loss later that year to Reagan.
One never knows.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:06 pm
Carter’s primary opposition by Ted Kennedy was bad. But I think it’s apples and oranges.
A competitive nomination fight when the party in question is _incumbent_ - see Jimmy Carter, 1980 - is a very bad sign. Also Bush in ‘92.
A competitive nomination when the party is out of power - Reagan, Bush, 1980, and today - really doesn’t seem to influence the final result. One reason the “outs” may fight so hard is because they sense the nomination is very worth having.
If this primary fight has been so bad for the Dems, then why are they both still essentially tied with John McCain? If now is not a breakout moment for him, when is? I’d be very scared right now if I were the Republicans.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:13 pm
I don’t believe the young people supporting Obama are thinking about race, religion, gender or the economy. They see a young, smart, person that they have more in common with than the old grumpy doomsday dinosaurs; in many ways they are more conservative than one might think. As for me, I think that unless we stop selling off, the land and the banks to other countries, we are really in trouble.
Comment by Chanson Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:22 pm
The seed was planted when our Illinois GOP Party leaders (Big Jim Thompson, Bob Kjellander, Cellini, JBT, Andy McKeena,etc) were said by John Kass and others to be part of the real or imagined “Combine” that John Kass talks about in his column. Once we hear and believe that, we started to disintegrate. Is it true? We don’t know nor are we going to waste anymore of our time worrying about it. The solution is for McKenna to distance himself from the alleged “combine” members. He and Tom Cross seem to have a hard time making the same decision that Obamma struggled with when it came to severing his relationship with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Lauzen’s SB 600 showed us where Tom Cross was when it came to fixing the Illinois GOP. It isn’t about to happen. That is why Obamma with his message of “change” gets so much traction especially with Illinois voters (both Republicans & Democrats).
Comment by Wilson Pickett Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:32 pm
===It is always hilarious at this point when people ask the question - what is wrong. A lot of answers always come up that are completely wrong. The biggest answer is typically “The Republicans are too conservative”, or “appeal to suburban women, etc.”===
It’s not a wrong answer to say that if you don’t win suburban women or find a replacement for their votes then you don’t win.
What’s wrong is to assume that you can win suburban women by just being true to your word.
That demographic in Illinois has repeatedly proven to be highly susceptible to a couple of big issues: Abortion and guns. If you “keep your word” to ban abortion and make guns more available, you will most likely lose that demographic.
Fitzgerald did it by emphasizing his moderate stance on guns and his pro-environment voting record. Plus, his opponent had lost most credibility with suburban women. GRyan emphasized Poshard’s gun and abortion voting record. Edgar was solidly pro-choice and backed making a temporary tax hike permanent for schools. Blagojevich touted guns and abortion in his race against JRyan. Same against JBT, but more importantly Blagojevich tossed in her support for Bush and GRyan. It didn’t matter that JBT was a “moderate” on abortion. She was portrayed as “anti choice.” She was also very pro-gun.
If you can’t find a way to crack that nut, or get around it, it’ll be tough to win statewide.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:33 pm
say that I worked for the state government. I worked as hard as I could during my whole career. Unfortunately, too many people work only for the money and political party and not for the good of their department and the state as a whole.
Comment by I am not ashamed to Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:41 pm
Also, the Senate Repubs positioned all their top suburban candidates to the right on abortion/stem cells/etc. last time around and all but one of them lost.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:45 pm
I think the long race was necessary for Obama. He was a blank slate; the Wright stuff (that sounds funny), Rezko/house, elitism, etc., were all going to get an airing. Better during the primaries then the general election. He’s been pretty shaky at times responding to these challenges; he needs to sharpen his game.
Now he has to get on his horse and ride hard to the center. He has to get back the Reagan Democrats (blue collar, Catholics), seniors and Hispanics who’ve kept Hillary in the race this long. He can’t assume they will back him over the independent, tough, Arizona war hero.
One way is for Obama to talk long and loud about values — personal responsibility, importance of good parents, education, pride in your country. I’ve heard him do it, but it’s gotten lost in the horse-race coverage of the primaries.
This could be a wild one. The usual battleground states — the Midwest outside of Illinois, Florida — will be in play. But so could some states in Dixie (Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia) that the GOP has relied upon to win.
A key decision for McCain will be whether to pour resources into California. It’s been True Blue since Reagan left the White House. But McCain is on good paper with Hispanics, while Hillary smoked Barack among Hispanics, especially in LA County.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:48 pm
There are lots of obviously smart political fans on blogs like this one. Why don’t the commenters go after the same political positions that are talked about, criticized so much, and are dear to people’s heart? I really think there are plenty of bright ambitious, successful people who would make great mayors, Reps, Sen, or Govs. These same people look at the political slice and dice machine and go “why put up with that crap”. Have some talking head yahoo talk for hours over a flag pin or find out behind the scene that money buys influence without putting in the footwork. What is in it for them if they have a good job that provides a good living? R or D makes little difference. As Tom Cole (R-Okla.)said in the lead in, it’s rich guys running the show to pay for things almost like a fun toy to play with. I am very glad people are willing to step forward to go after these positions, but the price of admission is getting very high.
At the same time, watch your local high school teams and bands. Some years good athletic or music talent is every where because the right genetic pool is floating through the area. 5-7 years later the same talent is gone. Repub just do not have enough decent people coming out for the team tryouts. Why put up with that crap.
Comment by zatoichi Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 2:54 pm
I agree that for Illinois Republican’s to take back the governor’s office they need to focus on the middle. Women will be the key voting bloc and not hard core conservatives. I think Christine Radogno would be an excellent candidate. Even though she lost her first statewide race, her name recognition has gone up. With enough financial support she could be a serious contender.
Rich, what do you think?
Comment by southern illinoisan Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 4:22 pm
If there is such a groundswell of support for SB 600, how come it is still stuck in the Senate?
Comment by Easy Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 5:18 pm
When someone informs me of “conservative” initiatives by Thompson, Edgar and Ryan, I will drop my argument how their combined 25 or so years in the gov’s mansion proves that Illinoisians are by and large moderate, irrespective of party label. I will have to admit that it is getting more leftward due to demographic changes, though.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 5:43 pm
Wordslinger: Maybe you are correct…people have been writing for years the current US Attorney has no interest in a white-shoe law firm but if someone could convince him that running for Governor would be a continuation of his public service, who knows? Big Jim, on the other hand had been aiming for years–I heard he may have talked about it as early as High School with classmates. If true, he certainly succeeded.
Wilson Pickett: Hello. Andy McKenna IS the combine.
Rich: Politically, suburban women are difficult to figure out. The whole “guns” thing when there is not a lot of gun violence in places like Winnetka or Hinsdale perplexes me. Maybe because, to a lot of these women (and many men in these areas) guns are “icky.” Many times they say they are Republican, but many do not vote in primaries.
If they did, Loleta Didrickson would have been the ‘88 US Senate nominee.
Peter Fitzgerald’s election was a referendum on Braun by the general electorate; nothing more, nothing less.
IMHO, if there had been straight-ticket balloting in that election, Mr. Fitzgerald would have lost.
And as a footnote to all the learned posters here: If Obama is not elected President this November, I am convinced he will run for Governor in ‘10 and win; setting up his ‘12 Presidential campaign.
Comment by The Cypress Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 5:53 pm
[…] Russ Stewart writes an excellent article, highlighted and debated on Capitol Fax today. It is cheerily titled “REPUBLICANS ARE ON BRINK OF EXTINCTION” […]
Pingback by Republican doom and gloom | Extreme Wisdom Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 7:14 pm
Yes, Their failure is that they seem to have one person as their leader who represents the party. On the other hand the dems have a variety of people and even thou Blagojevich is a Dem he certaintly is not the leader of the party. If they want him we’ll trade him for a case of beer.
Comment by the ole precinct captain Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 8:25 pm
Hmm..AA thinks The Cypress has been out in the drought too long. Don’t know which is goofier-U.S. Sen. Loleta “Trooper, Hold my Purse” Didrickson or Gov. “Needed a Gig” Barack Obama.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 9:12 pm
Edgar said and did a very (for this state) conservative thing when he said and meant we won’t spend money we don’t have.
Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:07 pm
AA, if self-identifying “Moderate GOP Suburban Women” regularly voted in the GOP primaries, Loleta would have won. The late Steve Neal even surmised this.
And, addressing your comment on Loleta, Troopers on Constitutional Officer details routinely hold purses and lots of other things. They drive these folks to the grocery store, etc. for security reasons.
AA, I also do not doubt that Barack would run for Governor in ‘10 and win should he lose this election.
It can only help him and cannot hurt him if he wants to run for Commander-in-Chief again.
So, what’s goofy?
Comment by The Cypress Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:09 pm
For 25 years, the ILGOP ate its young and now they’re stuck with aging, impotent “leadership” and no base to support its dying organization.
What is the ILGOP “brand”?
Darned if I know, and I’ve been unable to get reponses from any GOP elected officals that convinces me that they know, either.
Rich is also right about the suburban women’s vote being key to GOP success.
What develops support from them?
Protecting their kids and giving them what appears to be a good education.
Local school boards which take the “You don’t have to achieve it if you can make parents perceive it” approach are spectacularly successful politically.
Nobody bothers studying school report cards anymore (if they ever did) and, besides die hard gadflies like me, NO ONE studies and questions $100 million + school budgets, million dollar per high school teacher early retirement packages, or teacher salaries in suburban high schools that dwarf the other non-doctoral professions.
How do you win suburban moms over?
It’s more important to APPEAR nurturing and caring than understanding the problems and obstacles to success, and being able to articulate necessary solutions to the problem.
That’s what’s kept the Dems winning since 2002.
The Dems and unions have done an excellent job of defining anyone against waste and tax increases as being “against the children”, and children issues are tops for most of the necessary GOP suburban base.
Polls notwithstanding, I really think reasonable pro-life postions can win with suburban women, if the articulation isn’t shrill and repugnant.
Couple low taxes on families and private sector job growth policy, alternative school funding for urban mothers who want to give their children a chance to succeed out of the death spiral in urban public education, affordable college opportunities, and a portable health care system with choice and options, and I think you can win even the liberal moms back.
At least that’s what I’ll be preaching at the June “Becoming Greater in Decatur” GOP convention.
Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 10:36 pm
Cypress, pardon if my snarkiness exceeded my clarity. I have nothing but respect for Troopers, Secret Service, and all other law enforcement officers assigned to executive protection details. However, you are most mistaken if you believe that holding a purse, coat, suitcase, grocery bag, or anything unrelated to the task of executive protection id part of that job. It happens more at a State level than it should, and Loleta was 1) well known for crossing that line and 2) the justification for a Comptroller to have Executive Security was shaky at best. Hynes turned it down on Day 1 and is still standing. At the Federal level, this is not tolerated, at least by the Secret Service, POTUS detail excepted (hard to say no there.)
As far as the ‘88 Senate, I had forgotten about Steve Neal’s observation. My recollection of the breakdown in that race was that she didn’t do well enough elsewhere to have won with or without the ‘burban women. Maybe you’re not goofy on that one.
Gov. Obama-still can’t see that one. He knocks three folks out of line and potentially disrupts the whole ticket for two years in a state that may still be broke and will most certainly still be cycling through Federal trials involving corruption in the Democratic Party. Why not take a think tank position or law firm/professor gig and not acquire any more Illinois baggage than he already has?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, May 7, 08 @ 11:56 pm
The GOP has done what it takes to rid itself of the corruption from the Combine, (Miller dosen’t think it matters but you will seee it does)The Democrats are still livinfg in 1978! They have no solutions for any of the problems we as a state face but raise taxes and our businesses are leaving in droves. The 2010 elections for control of the state will be the revivial of the GOP in Illinois and the Democrats will have to go through the same kind of rebuilding from the bottom up that the GOP has done if it wants to come back.The GOP voters are the ones who demanded change and it tokk 10 years to rid the party of it’s slime. Now when the gop xcomes together for the Governors race and puts a ticket together that represents the whole party you will see the rats leaving the Democrat sinking ship’
It is not only GOP voters that want honest leadership but it was their voters who forced it first, when the people of Illinois seee that the GOP has finally fixed their corruption problems it will be time for the Cook County Democrats to reform and THAT will be a bloodbath.
Ron Gidwitz will be our nomonee to build a bridge between the factions and help to build a new party by helping to fund a Lt Gov candidate who the Base will pick, Less that 4 years ago the GOP was the majority party in the country and it will be again because of it’s voters and the corruption of the Democratic party.
Comment by RAI Thursday, May 8, 08 @ 12:30 am
Regarding the National parties:
The GOP is updating ideas and postions for a post Regan conservatism.
Democrats are fractured with identy politics. A fracture they’ve institutionalized with their primary rules.
About the worse thing that could happen for Democrats is an Obama victory. He’d be a catastrophic Prez along the lines of Carter.. weak and indecisive. Just like the Whigs running and electing an anti-war candidate in 1848 (Taylor) only to disappear as a Party because they couldn’t reconcile on slavery.
I’d rather be a party re-tooling ideas for new times, then a party locked in identity politics.
I’m still betting it will be Gore-Obama by the way…
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, May 8, 08 @ 4:27 am
AA: We both meant the ‘98 Senate race. It was getting late.
The State Police assess the threat level with the official and a decision is made. The detail can be refused. I was unaware of any of Loleta’s propensities.
I don’t see how Obama temporarily leaving politics helps him.
Although, if Bill Baar’s prediction is correct, it sure will have helped Al Gore.
Comment by The Cypress Thursday, May 8, 08 @ 7:20 am