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Missing numbers

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Obama

Sorry if this appears a little jumbled and crammed together, but here are the missing results from the Post-Dispatch poll, via the Hotline and courtesty of Archpundit.

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 1/16-18 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV; surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 1/22). Tested: Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), Treas. Judy Baar Topinka (R, ‘02/’04 SEN candidate Jim Oberweis (R) and businessman Ron Gidwitz (R).

General Election Matchups
All Dem GOP Ind Cook Collar Cent Sth
Blagojevich 45% 77% 6% 45% 55% 32% 44% 46%
Topinka 37 5 74 40 27 50 37 36
Undec/Oth 18 18 20 15 18 18 19 18

All Dem GOP Ind Cook Collar Cent Sth
Blagojevich 52% 84% 7% 56% 62% 37% 51% 52%
Oberweis 33 5 71 23 22 49 32 33
Undec/Oth 15 11 22 21 16 14 17 15

All Dem GOP Ind Cook Collar Cent Sth
Blagojevich 57% 88% 9% 67% 67% 40% 57% 56%
Gidwitz 22 4 56 13 14 44 19 21
Undec/Oth 21 8 35 20 19 16 24 23

Fav/Unfav
Blagojevich 47%/43%
Topinka 45 /31
Oberweis 28 /35
Gidwitz 9 / 8
Bush 36 /59
Cheney 33 /61
Obama 62 /30

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 5:40 am

Comments

Right now I wouldn’t put to much in Governor numbers.We still don’t know who is going to be the Repubs choice and how fractured Blago will do the Dems.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 8:38 am
This does, however, show that JBT needs to get going. When her name first came up, I raised the questioned of whether she had the energy for the fight. I said to have a chance of winning she would have to be out there on the hustings every day, all day..the real hustings, not just the TV ones…so people can see her. And she needs to have positions on the issues facing Illinoisians. Even if they turn out to be the wrong positions, people will give her credit for trying.

No signs of that, unless her pre and post election strategies will be different and she
is keeping a lower profile during the runup to the primary on purpose, so as not to further antagonize the Repub right.

Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 8:56 am
I don’t want to come off as cyncical, but I have one question. Isn’t this the same polling outfit that usually leans Democratic? I can live with it, but I think I discovered over the years that you have to add 3-4% toward the Republican candidate if you want to better match election day results.

I remember them being completely wrong on the Braun/Fitzgerald race, and being off on Blagojevich/Ryan. What I remember is if the Republican candidate are ahead in this poll, then they are definately ahead in the rest of the state.

If they changed the way they are doing things since that time, great. But I don’t remember giving them as much weight as other polls in the past based on their results.

I think it would be wise to add a conservative 3% toward the Republicans to get a better idea of what results would be, if you want to use this poll, based on their past performances.

Like I said, it sounds cynical, but as a poll watcher, I find this poll very interesting and thorough, but slightly biased on a consistent basis, which is OK, because consistency is better than being all over the map.

That said, clearly voters are not as interested in this election as my fellow bloggers are. This poll gives Blagojevich a real reason to smile.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 9:33 am
What is really interesting is that Oberweis’ negatives are close to JBT’s. Ads can help raise your positives, but you are usually stuck with negatives.

JBT’s “I am the only electable one’ takes a hit with this poll.

Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 11:50 am
And Prince Obama gets 30% unfavorable!!!

Did they poll me a dozen times or what?

Comment by Pat Collins Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 11:52 am
Pat, I agree that negative numbers are tough to reverse, but I completely disagree with your conclusion regarding JBT’s “electability” arguement taking a hit. In fact, I just posted on Illinoize arguing the opposite. See my analysis of the the results for independent and Dem voters in the Blago/Topinka and Blago/Oberweis matchups at http://capitalfax.blogspot.com/2006/01/playing-percentages.html#links

Comment by grand old partisan Wednesday, Jan 25, 06 @ 1:17 pm