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* The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers.
The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.)
Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each.
That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41.
This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake.
* You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker…
* Anyway, to the write-up…
More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn’s call for higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who has said he won’t detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2 election.
At the same time, more voters back Brady’s call for more widespread business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn’s reliance on passage of the state’s first public works construction program in more than a decade.
But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited form of recall of a governor.
Yet 70 percent of the state’s voters said they don’t believe Quinn has done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who classify themselves as independents.
It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice.
* And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats…
Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.
This is real trouble as well…
Despite national polls forecasting a potential wave for Republicans that could let them recapture the House, 45 percent of Illinois voters said Democrats should maintain control of Congress, compared with 37 percent who back the GOP.
As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead.
And this ain’t good either…
More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government will make the right decisions affecting them, according to the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot.
* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness…
A majority of the 600 Illinois registered voters surveyed still gave a positive review to Obama’s performance as president — but it is barely a majority. In all, 51 percent said they approved of the job he has done as president while 39 percent disapproved.
I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent.
* Related…
* Brady expected to pick up Fraternal Order of Police endorsement
* Employment Takes Center Stage In Race For Governor
* Politicians Turn Out for Labor Day Rally: QUINN: This election on Nov. 2, it’s all about the economy, it’s all about jobs, it’s all about a governor, who believes, as I do, in the minimum wage.
* GOP gov. hopefuls take on Obama
* Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor’s Seats This Year
* Bad economy favors GOP in governor election projection
* Gubernatorial candidate Brady visits, shakes hands; campaign ratcheting up
* Sebelius visits Ill. for Quinn fundraiser
* GOP, Dems gear up for fierce political season
* Rich Whitney Seeks Victory, Not Green Party Growth
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:48 am
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Rich Miller may very well like Pat Quinn. But the fact of the matter is that MANY voters are disliking the messes associated with the Democratic Party, locally especially. And also nationally: many people dislike the turns of direction taken by Mr. Obama. I’ve seen this in self-identified Democrats as well as Republicans. . . but are the Democrats listening?
In Illinois that would mean the removal of the Madigan machinery. Nationally, it would mean tempering the extremism of the Obamans.
Comment by Jack Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:52 am
It appears Brady’s gun positions don’t hurt him with the Fraternal Order of Police.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:58 am
Hey, Jack,
You ain’t been around for long, have you? Just passin’ thru? Keep going.
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:59 am
you forgot to mention kirk is at 32 percent which is not a shock considering his campaign hasn’t had any sort of economic message. Alexi has totally missed an opportunity to destroy him for never having held a private sector job in Illinois as an adult and been on the federal payroll for all but 2 of the last 30 years.
The problem for quinn is that suburban voters dont care about social issues this year because they are so scared about the economy, there’s a line in there about suburban women looking right and that’s a rich miller politics 101 talking point. The gun ad looks really pathetic now and the euthanizing dogs attack could come back and look like one of the more idiotic issues ever.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:59 am
Cudos to the Tribune for including all the candidates in their polls!
Comment by PFK Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 9:59 am
Word,
As much as I would like to believe that the FOP has come around to the GOP way of thinking, I fear that endorsement is more anti-PQ than it is pro-Brady. I would like to be wrong.
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:01 am
the extremism of the Obamans
Huh? Extremism and Obama really do not go together.
Comment by dave Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:05 am
“…I fear that endorsement is more anti-PQ than it is pro-Brady.”
I suspect that is true for the vast majority of voters as well, sadly. Ah, Dillard, we knew you well. A candidate of infinite jest.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:05 am
We are guessing the poll numbers reflect that when Brady sez he won’t be bossed around by special interests everyone giggles like a school girl ’cause he is a special interest — ala the votes sleezy Champaign sewer deal and the other housing scams.
FOP usualy wants everyone armed. It is the police chiefs who do not favor the firearms frenzy.
It looks so bad for the Ds that they should just fold it up now….NOT!
Just wait for the jim dandy GOPer websites to kick in.
BTW speaking of bungles, has anyone seen Daddy’s Little Deduction lately?
Now that the minor league baseball season is over ( read that as no playoffs for Ryno) Jason must not have much to do. Maybe if NoTaxBill got him a learner’s permit he could be driver
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:08 am
Jack is right. I do like Quinn. Here is what I told the Illinois Times the other day…
===“When you think of Pat Quinn, what do you think?” Miller asks. “See, you can’t think of anything. That’s the problem. During a campaign, you’ve got to be able to say, ‘What do you think about this guy?’ … He doesn’t know who he is. Quinn was an outsider, but he didn’t govern as one; instead he’s kind of a failed hybrid, and he has squandered the opportunity to at least appear as someone who puts the people first.”===
And…
===“Knowing him over the years and getting to know him a lot better now, he really is a decent man,” Miller says of Quinn. “He wants to do right very badly; the problem is he does it very badly.”===
In other words, Jack is just another dimwit hyper partisan desperately looking for any avenue to damage the messenger. Idiot.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:08 am
Jack is right. I do like Quinn….
————-
Welcome back Rich!
Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:10 am
Obama is beleagured by a recession that won’t quit, poor to no job creation, and being way too generous to Wall St. I like him alot, but felt he was not quite ready for prime time in the big fishtank that DC is. I am beginning to think I was right…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:25 am
Don’t mean to be flip, but one needs not be privy to all the cross-tabs and survey methodology for various polls in order to see the trends and the big picture of what voters are feeling and thinking. There’s anger everywhere. It’s palpable and November’s going to be very bad for democrats in Illinois and elsewhere. Strike up a conversation with strangers: standing in line at Jewel, your up-row seatmates at the ball park (in early innings of course), some people you don’t know at a bar-b-que or at a street fair, or the other persons waiting in the dentist’s office–and you will find out first hand graphically and clearly, complete with meaty quotes, what is going on out there and driving the poll numbers.
Also, Rich, thank you for again mentioning the gerrymandering issue and how it will likely affect this particular 2010 election in Illinois. IMO, not enough thought is given to that whole gerrymandered districts deal. Unintended consequences and all.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:29 am
== this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot. ==
Rich, can you explain this to me. I would think that an overwhelming majority of people saying that the Blagojevich trial isn’t factoring into their choice at the polls would be a big deal no matter how the question was worded.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:42 am
LiO, it’s because you can make very specific candidate-specific attacks regarding RRB.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:47 am
“More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government…..”
The actual question asks about confidence in state govt without any partisan reference
We think that means StateWideTom and the SenateMinotyLeader should not get too comfy just yet.
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:51 am
Forgot to mention….
BTW anything new on StateWideTom’s slush fund AKA Two Party System?
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:52 am
I like Quinn too, but I’ll like him a lot better as ex-Governor. Maybe so much I’ll wish he was back. LOL. Just shoot me.
Comment by Excessively Rabid Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 10:58 am
“Rich, can you explain this to me. I would think that an overwhelming majority of people saying that the Blagojevich trial isn’t factoring into their choice at the polls would be a big deal no matter how the question was worded.”
LIO….it might be that Democrats tossed Blagoof out of office.
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 11:10 am
Of course at the end of the day the Dems in Illinois can still count on its impressive get-out-the-vote machine with the unions, teachers, and serious work on the ground by precinct captains etc. The IL GOP machinery is largely an illusion, a paper tiger. Even most tea partiers do little beyond going to events where they preach to fellow members of the choir.
I’m sure the GOP will regain some ground in Illinois in November (they’ve lost about all there was to lose), but the Dems in Illinois won’t suffer the same blowout they’ll experience in a lot of other states. The IL GOP is still just too much of a mess and even though few want to talk about it, the GOP’s statewide ticket is very weak and uninspiring. Most Republicans I talk to aren’t excited at all. Most will be voting to send a message to Obama as opposed to actually voting FOR most of the GOP candidates.
And as the polls even in this bad Dem year still confirm, there are still a lot more Dems in Illinois than Repubs. They’ve only got one place to go home to on Nov 2.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 11:53 am
Democrats should not take comfort this year. It is hunting season and they have targets on their backs. Polls should not give solace. This is an election year when you feel fine until you get hit. Then it is all over. So Democrats should be expecting to get hit until the day after Election Day. I recommend incumbents run as if their lives depend upon it.
Panic is appropriate when you are the game.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 12:18 pm
>Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.
Not mentioned is most of that 37% live in Chicago.
Comment by Segatari Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 12:44 pm
I have been following this race since the previous governor was charged and impeached. I have beel appauled by the the ineptitude of the current governor Quinn has lost my vote and i will never vote republican, i just cant do it. So i will be voting for scott this november, i think the rest of you should as well…….
Comment by nonchalantstu19 Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 1:07 pm
I like Pat Quinn too, but not as a governor. I’m not knocking him per se. Not everyone is cut out for everything, and especially in tough times.
I appreciate that he means well, but his execuction and managment (which are all that really matters) have been terrible!
His best years are behind him (he’s approach his mid-60s). He doesn’t have anything to offer; he’s had two years to show the people of Illinois what he could do as a leader. Illinois is in serious trouble, and the bumbling/stumbling Banana Splits -like- constantly- falling- down-being-goofy- approach to governing has only made matter worse.
Quinn absoultely has to be judged on his performance as governor. People, including himself, did not want to do that for the primary, but there’s no getting around it at this point.
Comment by Will County Woman Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Saw a news story this moning about a national poll which has the general population favoring the republicans by percentags they have not seen even when Regan was in office.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Sep 7, 10 @ 2:31 pm