* As I told subscribers this morning, Public Policy Polling has a new survey out. Bill Brady is beating Pat Quinn by nine points, 39-30, with 11 for Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and 20 percent undecided. From the pollster…
Pat Quinn’s approval rating is 23% and when it comes to the Illinois Governor’s race that’s about all you need to know. Despite being largely unknown and not particularly well liked Bill Brady leads with 39% to 30% for Quinn and 11% for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, continuing his path toward becoming one of the most unlikely big state Governors in recent history.
Brady is winning 80% of Republicans while only 60% of Democrats are committed to Quinn. Perhaps most remarkable is the numbers among independents- Brady leads with 40% with Whitney second at 19% and Quinn finishing all the way back in third at 15%.
There’s certainly still room for Quinn to come back but it’s going to depend on whether people vote based on their feelings about the candidates themselves or just choose on party. Among the undecideds 50% are Democrats to only 16% who are Republicans and 67% of them voted for Barack Obama to just 21% who voted for John McCain. Usually you would expect that Democratic leaning crop of undecideds to come home and tighten the race…except that they give Quinn only an 8% approval rating with 49% of them disapproving of him. Getting the votes of Democrats who dislike him is the only way Quinn can pull it out but right now those folks aren’t sure what they’re going to do.
53% of voters disapprove of Quinn. He has only a 40% approval rating even with voters of his own party and Republicans (7/81) and independents (17/60) are pretty universal in their dislike of him. Brady isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either. The largest group of voters, at 45%, have no opinion about him. Among those who do it’s a slightly negative one with 25% seeing him favorably and 30% unfavorably. But at the end of the day the main thing Brady has going for him is that he’s not Pat Quinn and that’s good enough to give him a solid lead less than three months out from the election.
Toplines and crosstabs are here. I need to get to the State Fair soon, so I’m in a bit of a rush. You’ll have to debate this without me.