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[Bumped up from Thursday evening for visibility.]
* From the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners…
* We have another 11,777 absentee voters’ ballots that have arrived by mail Monday or later. These will be processed at 10 a.m. on Fri., Nov. 5 in the Lower Level at 69 W. Washington St., along with any valid absentee ballots that may arrive in the mail early Friday with a postmark of Nov. 1 or earlier.
* We have a remaining universe of approximately 6,000 absentee ballots not yet returned that may or may not arrive over the course of the next 12 days. (On Wednesday, I understated this number because of the errant reference to the pages of returned ballots, instead of the number of voters’ sets of ballots — Constitutional Amendment and Candidates.)
* There also remain approximately 11,000 provisional ballot envelopes that need to be reviewed over the course of the next week, now that the deadline has passed for voters to supply supplemental documents to support their voter registration claims.
Quinn’s lead stands at 19,413, but apparently, that’ll be rising once Chicago finishes counting. Other counties are still processing as well, but that’s a huge number of city absentees.
* From ABC7…
All that is left are the absentee, military and provisional ballots that the Associated Press estimated number around 50,000. If there are that many votes uncounted, Brady would have to win 70-percent to have a chance to win.
And, keep in mind that most of those provisionals probably won’t even be counted. Cook County Clerk David Orr said yesterday that the county usually approves only about a quarter of the provisional ballots. This is why there’s just no chance for Brady.
…Adding… About 37,000 of those 50,000 total uncounted absentees and provisionals are in Chicago and Cook County alone.
…Adding More… Quinn won Chicago with 75 percent of the vote. Figuring that the city’s 11,777 absentees will break out about the same (it’ll probably be higher for Quinn, considering pre-election polling, but let’s just figure it that way), that’s 8,832 absentee votes for Quinn. If a quarter of the city’s provisionals are counted, that’s 2,062 more votes for Quinn, for a total of 10,894 votes. Using the same math for suburban Cook, which Quinn won with 53 percent, Quinn would pick up 6,042 votes. City and Cook combined total 14,874 Quinn votes. Using that same figuring, Brady’s total for both Chicago and Cook would be 6,742. Add the difference of those two numbers to Quinn’s current margin over Brady and you get a Quinn lead of 27,545, with just 13,000 votes left to count, assuming they are all countable, and they’re not.
This thing is over. The AP is right.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:01 am
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That 50,000 number is absentees that were sent out, not those that election jurisdictions have on hand, right?
Comment by ok Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:36 pm
Rich,
Are the numbers still within a margin of a recount, if Brady were to pay for it? And, I am confused, can the IL Supreme Court deny the recount within certain peramters?
Dunno financially if it would make sense to do a recount, but is Brady legally ABLE i guess is where i am going with this?
If the RGA is going to pay and he Brady’s Crew have legal standing, can we see this get that far?
*** Not saying it IS going to happen, IS the best Political Answer, or recommending, just looking for clairification.
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:43 pm
===can the IL Supreme Court deny the recount within certain peramters?===
Adlai III lost by 5,000 votes and was denied a recount.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:46 pm
that is what I thought I heard/read … but wasn’t clear on the number that the Stevenson case had set as an unofficial benchmark.
Appreciate it, Rich.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:48 pm
ok, the AP ran a story with the 50K uncounted number. The latest story does not have a number. I’m checking now.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:48 pm
Adlai was also on the wrong side of a certain justice, whcih didn’t help.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:49 pm
I can’t imagine a certain justice who narrowly got retained is goig to like the side of the aisle Brady hails from, if it got to the IL Supremes
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 7:54 pm
I can’t see the absentees being anything a whole lot different than the 46-46 split that the regular vote had–although some polls had Quinn doing better among those who voted before election day than he did among those who actually voted November 2.
train111
Comment by train111 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:01 pm
Yeah, ok, that AP number is right.
Chicago has 11,777 absentees and 11,000 provisionals. Yesterday, Cook County had 10,500 absentees and 3600 provisionals.
That’s 36,877 right there. I can easily see 50K.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:07 pm
@ok
From the folks I have been talking to I think you are correct. Rich will get to the bottom of it for us.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:08 pm
ok,
@ 50k going 60/40 Brady Optimistically gives Brady a 10k margin, well below the 19k+ …
My gallows humor is keeping me sane at this point … I hope, after all the ballots are cast, recorded, certified, etc., Brady will do what he feels is best. It is a shame, that the way this is unfolding, that this could very well be the one thing people remember about Bill Brady and his run @ Quinn.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:14 pm
Revenge is a dish best-served cold
Justice Seymour Simon
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:16 pm
I think this is great!! Even when we lose in this country we keep fighting!! What other country has people of this determination?? Proud to be American! Everyone has a voice.
Comment by Trick or Treat Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:19 pm
I personally know 3 folks in Cook County who had to vote provisionally and it was just the Board of Elections screwing up. So you can count 3 more for Quinn. There will be a huge increase for Quinn if the provisionals are counted. Quinn might reach 35k.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:21 pm
Maybe they are just stalling for time while Plummer uses his connections to call out the Guard and Reserves. After all, they appear to be thinking the military voted for them in big numbers. Could there be a coup d’etat afoot?
Comment by wondering Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:34 pm
Its over Bill, let’s all go down the big slide at the fair grounds tomorrow and say good bye.
Comment by conda67 Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 8:36 pm
I believe the Cook votes are going to lean even more Democratic than usual. A lot of the folks who were victim of the Coordinated Campaign VBM debacle were forced to cast provisional ballots.
Comment by Obamarama Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:25 pm
A buck says Brady concedes by tomorrow night. Right before he heads to Florida.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:45 pm
If Rossi can concede in the Washington Senate race, Brady can concede in Illinois.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 9:55 pm
Love that Rich and Wordslinger brought Seymour Simon into the mix. I remember it well. And Word got the spelling right. Extra credit.
Comment by And I Approved This Message Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:00 pm
I ran the calculations on election night relative to the outstanding un-counted precincts in the city and suburban Cook, made reasonable assumptions based on the known data at the time, and extrapolated the vote tallies for the uncounted votes.
Even assuming a late game fumble on a high percentage of absentees by the DCC, and the late mailing of some military ballots in other quarters around the state, it was easy to see that the race was over at that point. The rest of this process was simply going to be going through the procedural motions.
The Fat Lady has been singing for several days now, and its to the point where she will have laryngitis by tomorrow.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:14 pm
Hats off to Quinn. A narrow victory in the primary, followed by a split with AKPD over issues of money and discipline, and he still manages a win in a wave year for Republicans. I really thought he was done after the brutal primary with Hynes, and he likely would have been beaten badly had Dillard won his primary.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:18 pm
on the plus side for jason plummer he won’t have to release his taxes.
Comment by shore Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:36 pm
How is it the sothern cracker Gov of Mississippi can hold up the Illinois GOP and the State of Illinois from moving forward. It was bad enough when they all had to call Carpentersville, at Jack lives here and pays taxes. Wait, this is brought to you by the same people who thought moving Allen Keyes here was a good idea. I wonder how that worked out for them?
Give it up, man up concede, congratulate, have a beer with the gov and move on. Oh, sorry, that was the Moderate who WON. Or take your ball and go home.
Comment by frustrated GOP Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:46 pm
thanks for the detailed update, Rich!
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:50 pm
Has anyone told Brady or Plummer yet? It may be that key information is being withheld so Bill won’t get mad and Jason won’t hide under his bed for a week.
As I posted yesterday, a concession is not legally binding, so who cares? BB can wait as long as he wants, it won’t change the results and it won’t impact the inauguration. It’s time to ignore the gentleman from Bloomington and move on.
As the Chicago press returns its focus to the mayor’s race (and the downstate press turns to their newly elected people for quotes), Brady will be left in the cold. The primary reason for Brady to concede soon, is that if he waits, no one will cover it.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 10:56 pm
Does Nuckels become a hot commodity now that the Governor got reelected?
Comment by Highland, IL Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:09 pm
Straight party voting would have helped the GOP/Brady this year. They have Brady and Republican Legislature of 1996 to thank for eliminating it in a lameduck session after losing control of the Cook County States Attorney’s Office.
Comment by 29th Pct Voter Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:14 pm
A truly historic victory for Pat Quinn. I believe he is the very FIRST Illinois lieutenant governor to EVER subsequently be elected governor.
But carpe diem, Governor Quinn. Seize the day; seize the opportunity! The first duty of a politician is to get elected. You’ve DONE that. You did what you had to do to win, but now you must GOVERN.
To EVER be considered great Quinn will have to stand up to the General Assembly and the unions, without whose support he never would have won. It’s time for some shared sacrifice, but will a politician who instinctively wants to be liked be willing to ask people to make some sacrifices?
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Thursday, Nov 4, 10 @ 11:58 pm
Brady must be a Cub fan, is all I can figure….
Comment by Newsclown Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:24 am
“Brady must be a Cub fan, is all I can figure….”
But Newsclown, the Cubs Do concede, usually sometime right after Memorial Day.
Comment by Give Me A Break Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 5:48 am
–Brady won the state of IL. The people of IL. want him to be governor. Cook co., did not. How is that the will of a state? Sad…..–
Now, that’s a Cubs fan! “We won everything but….”, lol.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 8:12 am
The sad thing is having the City dictate the State. It would be nice if Chicago was on its own, and the rest of Illinois on its own: two states rather than one. I’d much prefer that.
Comment by Siwash Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 8:22 am
Chicago, Danville, Bellville, and Vienna are never going away. If the concentration of people in Chicago were spread across the state the election outcomes may have been somewhat different but not much. Throw all the rural vs urban, South of 80, Chicago needs to be a separate state, the Combine analysis you want/wish. It doesn’t change the reality that any statewide effort must do serious time in the northeast section. You just cannot ignore the large population densities regardless of what state you happen to be in. The trade off is Cook county money helps pays for highways, public buildings, and infrastructure that probably would not exist if funding was based only on the local economy. Just part of the package.
Comment by zatoichi Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 9:02 am
Siwash,
We all have one vote …we all all in this state. If the Brady Campagin Paid Staff had a ground game to find 1+ vote a precinct, YOU would be crowing how downstate rules! Don’t blame Chicago, Cook, Collars, …Blame Brady’s Paid Campaign Staff and the lack of a field Operation …Over 50% of the people DIDN’T vote, and that Staff couldn’t find 1 more per precinct?
You anger is not aimed correctly, Siwash.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 9:05 am
We would have no roads or bridges downstate if we break off chicago.
Our property tax and sales tax would have to be doubled at least, and we owul still b scrounging or dollars.
Chicago on the other hand would have dream infrastructure, reduced taxes etc….
good for chicago, bad for IL.
Comment by Ghost Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 9:30 am