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* Debbie Halvorson will announce tomorrow that she’s challenging Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. in the Democratic primary. From a press release…
“Our families are facing serious challenges, and they need a serious Member of Congress who can get things done. Our neighbors don’t need rhetoric, they need results, and I’ve delivered actual results for nearly twenty years. I’m running to bring real representation, real leadership, and real results back to our district.”
* The Question: Does Halvorson have a chance?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:05 pm
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She has a “Budweiser” of a chance ….
Kidding aside … yeah, she has a shot. JJJ’s issues with other Illinois caucus and Black Caucus members make it easier for intra-primary sides to be taken against him. It’s not like JJJ is running at 70% positives … Debbie will have to be a better campaigner this time around, and with that Achillie’s Heal, that is what gives JJJ a shot to stick around and not make this a “lock” for Debbie …
Not a “good” matchup … a GREAT matchup to watch!
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:12 pm
Yes, she has a chance. She has a better chance if Ald. Beale also runs.
Regardless of the field, if this turns out to be a referendum on Jackson, I think Jackson will be in trouble, especially in the new portions of the district. Not having Obama on the ballot in the primary takes away an important turnout booster for Jackson.
Can she raise the money and appeal across racial and geographic boundaries and get her voters out? We’ll see, and if she does, she definitely has a chance.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:15 pm
She has a chance, I think some of it will depend on how she plays on JJJ personal issues, the girlfriend (for a whole host of reasons) is not going to play real well with some parts of JJJ’s base. It is going to depend on how hard she goes after him
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:18 pm
If the base that JJJ will rely upon fails to turn out during the primary, he could have a serious problem. With no one challenging Obama on the Democratic side of things, some voters JJJ will be counting on may be apathetic about voting.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:21 pm
Yes. Adding to what others have said, if the GOP presidential race looks over by primary time, I imagine there are a number of Republicans and Independents in that district who wouldn’t mind casting a vote against Trips.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:25 pm
Depends on
1. Ald. Beale getting in
2. Shoring up her support in southern Cook County. She grew up in the Heights, after all.
3. how many Republican or conservative-leaning voters at the south end of the district will pull a D ballot for her, figuring she’s the best alternative to the status quo and motivated enough to forego the presidential primary.
If she gets a favorable result in 2 out of 3, she has an OK chance.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:25 pm
Actually, it would be better for that district if both JJJ and Debbie moved on to challenging new occupations and gave some ambitious young Democrats without old baggage a chance to show what they can do for that safe district.
But barring that, yes, Debbie has a slight-very slight- chance.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:32 pm
Halvorson’s no fool; she wouldn’t be getting into the race if she had no chance. That said, in a Democratic primary with no race at the top of the ticket, the vast majority of the Democratic voters are going to be from the city which Jackson will hold, rather than the suburan and collar communities which would support Halvorson. The low Democratic enthusiasm outside of Chicago will lead a lot of the people who would otherwise support Halvorson over Jackson to pull a ballot in the more competitive Republican presidential primary or simply stay home. Unless another African American with ties to the city jumps in and effectively challenges Jackson the northern part of the district, Halvorson will likely be burried by the ward turnout.
Comment by 44 Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:33 pm
I agree with most of the assessments here, but this battle will be decided in the suburbs…JJJ will pull no votes out of the old 11th, and he won’t do as well as he is used to doing in the Heights, Homewood, and Lansing.
Comment by not here Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:41 pm
this question is quite the topic of conversation here in the south suburbs. i’m sure i’m not the only one who thinks this race complicates 2012. i think it’s inevitable that people other than the 3 or 4 candidates will try to make this “opportunity” to gain some form of political advantage. there may be lots of bodies left on the sidelines before it’s all over.
there are just so many factors here. i’ve lived here since 2000 and i’ve never seen the famed campaigns of jackson or halvorson. jesse hasn’t been a presence in the south south suburbs since i’ve lived here. there are memories of when he was a real force in elections down here. he was more of a factor in the giannoulias, shore and cunningham elections in 2006, but not really down here. i wonder if the congressman remembers how to engage voters *where they live,* off the pedestal.
halvorson ran a crappy campaign in 2010 and much of the blame for that rests at her feet. she did the right things — congress on your corner, etc — but failed to get the recognition for it in 2009 and 2010. it got to the point where people moved beyond the realization that she was working the district to actually feeling alienated. while i can’t remember someone actually saying she went beltway, a lot of people said something like it.
but all seems to be forgotten with re-districting. jackson’s (and rush’s) movement deep into will has really rankled voters there. jackson’s section in will, especially, is full of swing voters and it will be really interesting to see if voters there pick up a democratic ballot to vote against jackson or a republican ballot to choose the next president (of course, the gop race could be settled by then, making that choice easier).
what people didn’t see in 2010 (general) was all the signs for jackson’s republican and green opponents. while jackson wiped the floor with them, there was real intensity behind his opposition. my little burg got canvassed a lot by his republican opponent (issac hayes, iirc). but their candidacies wasn’t supported by mail or tv, so they really never posed a threat.
we should remember that this is something that is more than just local. for example, gary peters is challenging john conyers in michigan. redistricting has brought surprises in the past and they probably will in 2012.
the normal advantages of incumbency probably don’t apply to this race. a credible challenger is not only widely known in the area, but has a firm grasp on the job. there’s likely to be a lot of assumptions on all sides that will lead to fatal errors on the part of their campaigns.
both beale and halvorson showed up last night at the thornton township democratic meeting. one of the advantages of not being the incumbent is that you have more time to campaign (and fund-raise). and this race will definitely draw the media.
there have been at least two polls running in the district in the last few weeks. one people widely attribute to halvorson. the call i took sounded more like it came from beale (if only because there was no negative messages tested against him and included a glowing account of his work as alderman). i’m not sure pre-primary polls will tell us much, though. i’m more interested in seeing which campaigns hook up with others on the ground. there is a huge political vacuum throughout much of the new 2nd congressional district, but there are credible campaigns with concerted ground efforts going on in eastern will as well as southern cook county. who knits together the best coalition and produces the strongest election day may very well decide this race. but that assumes a level of competency i’m still waiting to witness. and i could be disappointed (from an observer’s perspective). because this would require real leadership, insight and organization that has yet to emerge from any of the campaigns (i could write more, but i doubt anyone cares)…
Comment by bored now Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:42 pm
Not a chance if Herman Cain is correct. Halvorson’s only chance is for the Dems to prove Mr Cain wrong.
Comment by Mr. Ethics Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:49 pm
If Halvorson didn’t have a shot JJJ would have released a poll by now demonstrating it.
Comment by Dirt Digger Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:52 pm
Mr. Ethics, what the heck are you babbling about?
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:53 pm
Answer yes. Proof - JJ was getting all nervous a couple of weeks ago about the new map.
https://capitolfax.com/2011/09/22/black-delegation-takes-step-back-from-new-map/
Comment by Ghost of John Brown Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 1:54 pm
Yes. JJJ is not some legendary legislator with an excellent track record of moving mountains or pushing through landmark legislation. He is not damaged goods per se, but he’s weakened as a candidate and as a legislator. I know Rich and I had a tit-for-tat on his kids attending D.C. schools, but that will be a serious issue for him that he will be called upon to address. I also don’t see the DCCC getting involved in primaries unless it’s of the utmost importance (i.e. a ranking member or a major Obama bundler/operative).
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:02 pm
I agree with prevailing assessments above that she has a chance but the odds are stacked against her. The African American vote can and often is a reliable vote for African American candidates but history has demonstrated that is not always the case — Rahm crushed Braun in the African American wards, I forgot the name of the white Alderman that represented a heavy African American ward a few years back, Gary, Ind. elected a white Mayor, etc. I don’t know enough about the feelings about Jesse Jr. in the African American communities, but Debbie can conceivably win over some of the African American voters.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:13 pm
Sorry - Now realizing this is a primary makes the post incorrect.
Comment by Mr. Ethics Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:15 pm
Yes. DH could choose between not running, a run in the 16th, and a run in the JJJ district. It seems unlikely she would choose this option without some indication she would get support and votes.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:23 pm
Halverson will give Jr. a run for his money!
Comment by Hattie Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:27 pm
JJJ will be tough to beat unless another black candidate gets into the field to split the black vote. Personally, I think one on one a reformer type black female would defeat him rather easily.
Can DH beat him? Well she will need to make inroads into his base on the south side. She’ll need to campaign heavily there. Some of the black middle class wards in and around Chatham turn out a whole lotta votes and if she could pick off 1 outta 5 there she would have an excellent shot.
As I said last week on this topic having JJJ out of office is not necessarily a good thing. Then he will be perpetually running for anything that comes up. Mostly he would be running his mouth. He would be a shorter version of Bill Clinton as the perpetual “comeback kid”.
Be careful what you wish for people.
Comment by Irishpirate Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:40 pm
Just what Nancy Pelosi needs…..Debbie Halverson back!
Comment by Tim Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 2:45 pm
I sure hope so.
Irishpirate, I would rather have him out of office running his mouth, than in office voting!
Comment by Jaded Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 3:00 pm
The only situation I have seen where a white democrat beat a black democrat in a black district was in 2006 in the memphis area seat held by then rep harold ford jr. The white man running who still holds the seat won the district when 3 black candidates split the black vote enabling him to win the seat. A primary in 2008 or 2010 by a black politician without another black candidate against him failed as well I think.
To the earlier commenter who said obama won’t be on the ballot-he will as I think he’s running for re-election, there just won’t be a primary driving people to vote. the other idea is what republicans in the district do. If the presidential primary for the gop side is over, is there a better chance they grab a democrat ballot with nothing else to vote on?
Comment by Shore Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 3:05 pm
Shore, you’re thinking of Steve Cohen, and yes he has survived 2 primary challenges from black local elected officials.
Comment by J Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 3:22 pm
yes, she has a chance - if she can raise enough money she can win
Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 3:31 pm
I don’t usually jump into these, but I will today.
I think her NRA record is a gigantic problem in that district. She will have to run a super-duper-fragilistic negative campaign, but J3 will fight fire with fire. Democraphics, name ID, etc. give J3 the edge. But if she goes thermonuclear, raises a ton of money, massages the media and does everything else exactly right, she has a slight possibility of winning. In other words, she has to run like the old Debbie, not Congresscritter Debbie.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 3:36 pm
YES she has a chance. I spent the first three decades of my life in the Kankakee area and have returned there frequently over the years and I doubt if I could find a single person there that I once knew that would vote for either Jesse Jackson for anything! I’m told a big problem for her will be what is called the local Democratic Party leadership.
Comment by Rich Miller Sr Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 4:58 pm
I don’t think her NRA record is a negative anymore…cause of what is going on in the Af Am community. is the plaintiff in the SC case in her district? I smell endorsement from him no matter where he lives, and support from like minded to cut into Af Am support of Jackson.
Comment by amalia Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 5:36 pm
Iwould think R’s would support Jackson, not Halverson. He’s always been more non-partisan on issued like the 3d airport. He worked with G. Ryan closely on this issue. I don’t see R’s crossing over to vote for a D back bencher. Why would they do that?
I don’t think she has a chance.
Comment by park Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 8:37 pm
We’ll see how many Will County dems are bullied by her campaign people.
Comment by Bush Twins Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 9:52 pm
Park, if you actually think republicans in Will County would vote for Jackson, you are bonkers.
Comment by Bush Twins Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 10:00 pm
If Beale gets in the race, then crossover Republicans voters will select him over both Halverson and Jackson, Jr.
Comment by anon Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 10:21 pm
She has a chance, not much more. There’s always the possibility that JJJ will screw-up in between now and then. Also within the realm of possibility, new disclosures about mistresses or the Senate seat for sale.
Comment by Quizzical Wednesday, Oct 5, 11 @ 11:07 pm
There will be few (if any) Republicans in Will County voting for Jesse Jackson Jr. Residents of Will County will vote based on the perception (whether real or imagined) of Jesse Jackson Jr. simply being another extension of Cook County political tenacles extending into Will County. Most of the counties that have borders that bump up against Cook County are scared that they will catch the same political disease that infects Cook County politics.Halvorson will “easily” beat Jesse in Will County.
Comment by Wilson Pickett Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 7:05 am
–Most of the counties that have borders that bump up against Cook County are scared that they will catch the same political disease that infects Cook County politics.–
Yeah, Will County politics is as pure as Ivory Soap.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 10:20 am