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* UPDATED - Exit Polls * Primary eve prediction thread and live-blog

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* Let’s move into the next phase of our coverage with your predictions for tonight. Presidential, congressional, legislative, etc. Make as many as you can, and I won’t hold you to them. It’s all in fun. No wagering, please.

….Adding… NBC 5 has a live video feed. We’ll hopefully have more of these as the evening progresses….

…Adding More… Eric Zorn’s predictions…

US Congress : Jesse Jackson Jr., Tammy Duckworth, Adam Kinziger, Ilya Sheyman
General Assembly: Patricia van Pelt Watkins, Kirk Dillard, Derrick Smith
Supreme Court: Aurelia Pucinski
Cook County Clerk: Dorothy Brown
President: Mitt Romney (by 7 percent)

*** UPDATE *** Check the ScribbleLive feed for exit poll info.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:45 pm

Comments

49 Sd Peck , 42 house Hage , President one of them , delegates all over the place , 12cd Plummer , and Roger Eddy is gone

Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm
President: Romney
Supreme Court: Theis
CD 02: Jackson
CD 08: Duckworth
CD 10: Sheyman
CD 13: Goetten
CD 16: Manzullo
Cook County Clerk of Courts: Brown
HD 14: Cassidy
HD 21: Lozano
HD 26: Mitchell
HD 35: Hurley
HD 39: Berrios
HD 78: Lilly
SD 05: Collins
SD 15: Miller
SD 19: Hastings

Comment by J Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm
Romney will beat Santorum, but I’ll guess it’s not the relative blowout some are predicting. Turnout is awful in Cook and the collars and somewhat better further out in the 16th (the exurbs) where Santorum will do somewhat better. Also Santorum’s voters turn out to be slightly more motivated than Romney’s. I’ll say it’s Romney by about 39-37.

Jackson Jr and Tammy will win handily. Manzullo vs Kinzinger, who knows, but I will bet Manzullo narrowly wins.

Ilya Sheyman will win the 10th nod. Piszczor will be crushed in her primary bid vs. Madigan.

And though I hope she won’t, Dorothy Brown will again win reelection based on her name recognition and general low turnout across Cook County. The somewhat competitive primary with Jackson Jr in southern Cook will boost African-American turnout and help out Brown.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm
Jacobs wins
Barickman wins
Pankau wins
dillard wins
A. Collins wins
D. Smith wins
Gill wins
Duckworth wins
Syverson wins
Sue Scheer barely pulls it off
Theis wins
Napolean Harris wins
Kinzinger wins
Madigan Wins

Comment by Spliff Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:56 pm
McSweeney over Gaffney but close , Rowe might get 8% of the vote for her “revolution” , Sandeck wins huge , I want Cliff but Karen will win . Chris Lauzen will beat Pat Brady .

Losers for tonight Cicero Dan and Zahm

Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:58 pm
Raja K. wins the 8th CD Democrat primary.

Jason Plummer wins the 12th CD Republican primary.

Matt Goetten wins the 13th CD Democrat primary.

Adam Kinzinger wins the 16th CD Republican primary.

Mike Jacobs, Sue Sherer, Jared Perry, Paul Evans, Tom Swiss, Annazette Collins, Kirk Dillard, Sam McCann, Jason Barickman, Dave Syverson, Napoleon Harris, Carole Pankau, Dan Lewandowski and Rudy Lozano all win their respective primaries. Sorry I was too lazy to type it all out.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:01 pm
Rich, I predict record low turnout, especially in the city of Chicago.

Why?

- no Senate candidates on the ballot
- no Governor’s race one the ballot
- no competitive Dem Presidential primary

The last time there were no statewide races and no competitive DEM presidential primary? 1964.

It’s a rare year.

Comment by Ok Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:15 pm
Forgot HD 10: D. Smith

Comment by J Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:17 pm
Just finished voting. At 5 p.m., they had run out of the paper democratic ballots in my precinct even though the place was not busy. I had to use the electronic voting which I hate. Also, they have one machine so if the post-work crowd comes, there will be a line and the five voting booths for using the paper ballots will be empty.
I hope Theis wins the Supreme Court but I don’t want to predict it or I will jinx it. Had 7 judicial robocalls on the answering machine from yesterday.

Comment by 32nd Ward Roscoe Village Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:20 pm
Potus - Romney

Congress:

J-Trips (Halverson will get steam-rolled, 70-30)
Duckworth
Foster
Plummer (going to be an interesting General Election)
Kinzinger (Manzullo - ‘It’s business’)

IL Senate:

Munoz
Annazette Collins
Pankaus
Dillard (Nybo - ‘wax wings too close to the sun’)
Oberweis (yeah, I know …)
McConnaughay
Jacobs (ONE. TO. WATCH.)
Garrett Peck (interesting race …)
Rose (welcome to the ‘new’ map, repubs!)
Cultra

IL House:

DERRICK SMITH (a.k.a. Madigan’s Magicians)
Stoppa (over Martwick, interesting NW Truce landscape too)
Michael. Madigan. (Pisczcor will never have her garbage picked up again!)
Berrios
Gaffney (and McSweeney, please go away!!!)
Durkin
Kifowit

Supreme Court:

Theis (but Aurie will make her SWEAT)

Cook - Board of Review:

Morrison (Patlak ‘needed more days’ = kiss of death)

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:23 pm
One more for fun:

Dorothy Brown

She still has a few lives left, and this race ain’t going to get her…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:29 pm
Romney
Theis
Brown
Duckworth
Lilly wins and thus carries Graham in a battle to maintain the status quo
Madigan absolutely destroys everyone
Berrios gets saved
Swiss wins and the Dems run an independent (Madigan can spend unlimitied funds on an IE)
Cassidy mops up Basta
Patrick Tjompson wins third spot in water rec

Comment by Lakewood-Balmoral Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:46 pm
ok-that’s because this is only the 3rd democratic president seeking re-election since 1948.

Comment by Shore Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:51 pm
As said elsewhere, I’ll go with Zorn’s picks. I believe Romney will top Santorum by at least 10%, even with the low turnout.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:51 pm
Romney, by less than 7 percent … 10 is way too high.

To clarify my pick…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:57 pm
Shore - actually, it is the first time this scenario has been the case (no statewide races and an incumbent president seeking reelection) for either a Dem or Rep incumbent president seeking reelection since 1964. I picked dem because that is what will explain the low turnout in Chicago.

Comment by Ok Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:03 pm
Has Romney ever broken 40% in any contested primary held this year? Sheesh!

Comment by Esquire Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:11 pm
Il-10 Dem primary results:

Ilya Sheyman: 36%
Brad Schneider: 34%
John Tree: 21%
Vivek Bavda: 8%
Other: 1%

Comment by Team America Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:15 pm
I just got home to a robo message from a group called Jews and Christians for Santorum. It was the most offensive thing I have ever heard! Did anyone else get these calls? I am speechless.

Comment by Hmmm Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:19 pm
NBC 5 said that 70 percent of the GOP primary vote is coming from the suburbs. Yowza.

My random mostly shot-in-the-dark predictions:
-Romney 47 Santorum 34 Paul 9 Gingrich 8 Other 2
-IL-2 - JJJ by 20
-IL-8 - Duckworth by 8
-IL-10 - Sheyman by 9
-IL-12 - Harriman/Plummer
-IL-13 - Goetten
-IL-16 - Kinzinger by 2

-S.Ct - Theis

-Cook County Circuit Clerk - Brown over Munoz (unfortunately)

-MWRD - in an upset Black gets a spot for being first on ballot

-42nd ward GOP committeeman - Smithburg over Gerson

-Statehouse - Collins over Van Pelt-Watkins
-Statehouse - Smith over Swiss
-Statehouse - Barickman over Cultra
-Statehouse - Scherer over Cahnman

-McLean County State’s Attorney - Chambers over Foster

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:26 pm
Hmmm I have a recording of that call & it was terrible

Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:29 pm
Hmmmm Rich has the bad robo recording . Ironic as it may be a gay man got it last night and said ” Mullah Rick”

Comment by anon Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:32 pm
I voted in the 19th Ward at about 5:30. They said they’d be lucky to get to 50% when normally they are at 75.

Comment by South Sider Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:38 pm
That robocall is posted in the ScribbleLive blog. Scroll thru.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:49 pm
President - Romney by 7

Congress:

Jesse Jr. by 20
Duckworth by 15
Kinzinger

IL Senate:

Munoz
Annazette Collins
Pankau
Dillard by at least 10
McConnaughay
Barickman

IL House:
Kelly Cassidy
Christian Mitchell in a close one
Elgie Sims
Derrick Smith
Martwick
Berrios
McSweeney (unfortunately over one of the most decent member of the GA)

Supreme Court:

Theis

Comment by RajaDanceParty Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:54 pm
The same entitlement promising ones will be re-elected
They have a plan…tax the rich

Comment by Informer Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:56 pm
Mike Hastings will win to replace Sen. Maggie Crotty in IL 19

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 7:02 pm