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Gill claims polling lead over two possible rivals

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* 13th District Democratic congressional nominee David Gill has a new poll which shows him leading two possible Republican opponents. According to the poll, Gill leads Jerry Clarke 40-33 and Rodney Davis 41-31. You can read the pollster’s analysis by clicking here.

Gill is below 50 in both trial heats so there’s there’s a long way to go here. Gill also benefits from a name recognition boost because of his three previous runs against incumbent Republican Tim Johnson, who dropped out of the race after the primary. According to his pollster, Gill is getting “over 50% of the vote” in the territory he’s run in before.

President Obama won the 13th District by 11 points four years ago, but he’s only ahead of Mitt Romney by 4 points in Gill’s poll. Still, that’s pretty good news for Gill and the Democrats. The poll’s generic trial heat had the district as +3 Democratic, 38-35, which is another important point.

Gill is being widely dismissed as a candidate who can’t win. He’s probably hoping that this poll changes some minds.

400 likely voters were polled by Victoria Research & Consulting April 11-14.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 9:51 am

Comments

They would be fools not to nominate Rodney Davis. He’s worked throughout the state. He knows the district and the district knows him.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 9:58 am
It’s going to be a tough district for the Republicans now. Johnson had labor and minority support, he could reach out and win Democrats. I don’t know if the others will be able to do so.

Comment by Ahoy Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:02 am
We all need to be quite clear that Jerry and Rodney are NOT Tim Johnson, and the way the numbers roll out in that district, anyone who gets the “pass” to be the nominee will be facing a hard road, on their own.

Gill ain’t the winner yet, but no GOP Appointed Nominee should think they have a cakewalk either!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:05 am
==It’s going to be a tough district for the Republicans now. Johnson had labor and minority support, he could reach out and win Democrats. I don’t know if the others will be able to do so.==

I’d agree, except Gill is a goofball and people in that district know it. They voted against him three times. Why he thinks enough of them will suddenly change their mind the fourth time around is a mystery to me.

Comment by so... Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:05 am
===They voted against him three times. Why he thinks enough of them will suddenly change their mind the fourth time around is a mystery to me. ===

Very. Typical. Mistake.

Jerry Clarke ain’t Tim Johnson.

Rodney Davis ain’t Tim Johnson.

The only thing we know 100% for sure, is that the variable of Tim Johnson, Candidate, is NOT in the mix against Gill.

Keep saying all these things against Gill.

After about 3 months on the Trail, whoever the GOP Nominates as the Nominee will hear…

“HE ain’t Tim Johnson.”

In the long run, we will see if that van be a plus or a minus against Gill is yet to bee seen.

But, good luck with the…

“Gill’s a kook. Whoever the GOP picks will wipe the floor with Gill.”

Yep, good luck with that!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:13 am
Unfortunately, it practically doesn’t matter who the Republican nominee is, they will be congressman. DCCC is out, NRCC is in; Gill has has enough hairbrained left-wing ideas to disqualify him from winning. Goetten might have gotten a late start and so been lackluster, but he was the only one of the two who could win for Democrats.

Comment by Knifefighter Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:24 am
Gill losese in a sweep, because he can’t answer the following question without turning off Central Illinois Voters -

“If you are elected to Congress, will you vote for John Boehner or Nancy Pelosi as the Speaker?”

Gill: “Pelosi! Pelosi! Pelosi!”

Comment by Downstate Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:37 am
I’ll be really disjointed if it’s Davis or Clarke. The last thing this country needs right now is a careerist political operative trying to take the next step up. It’s nice you’ve worked on campaigns and maneuvered chess pieces around the board to position yourself, but this is not the time for more old school insiders. We need fresh new leaders and ideas right now, not aides and insiders.

Comment by Shore Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 10:57 am
This “outsider” and “fresh new leader” stuff is nonsense, I can’t believe anyone intelligent actually buys into this talking point.

I know when I go in for brain surgery and the hospital is always pushing some career doctor with years of experience who went to the best schools I’m always like, “no I don’t want one of these career medical professionals and their tired ideas, don’t you have someone who’s an outsider to cut open my head, someone with fresh ideas?” They always look at me with scorn and pity, but that’s just because they spent too much time being corrupted by the system, obviously they’re the problem.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 12:02 pm
Contrary to the Republican narrative that he
is “too liberal” or a “flawed” candidate,

I get a kick out of that line. It’s not the Republican narrative. That’s the Democratic narrative.

Comment by 13th Voter Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 12:02 pm
People keep saying that the voters of the district rejected Gill three times; however, only 28% of the new 13th comes from Johnson’s old district and my guess is that Gill does well in that part of the district. Underestimate him at your peril GOP.

Comment by Ben Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 12:35 pm
Ben is right. This isn’t Johnson’s old 15th, it’s the new 13th. It’s new territory that doesn’t know either candidate, no matter who the Rs select.

Ask Matt Goetten how it worked out ignoring Gill. Gill’s team put together some really powerful media. You have to assume they can do it again.

Comment by Former Downstater Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 1:31 pm
Did they poll Gill against Dan Brady? Or has Dan dropped out of contention?

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 1:31 pm
Never underestimate the trickery of the Republicans in Eastern Illinois.

Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 2:50 pm
It’s a pity to say because I believe him to be somewhat lackluster as a candidate, but the smart GOP should really take another look at Adam Brown, although I hear he is out.. This guy has solid organized labor support, good connections from Decatur to Champaign, zero baggage (other than being joined at the hip to Bill Mitchell) but realistically, he’s clean, fresh, effective, and absolutely endeared to a large portion of this district - not to mention he could hit the ground running in 24 hours with tons of support from others in the IL Repub Congressional delegation. I look forward to whatever the matchup will be, but I do definitely think that a non-pol on the GOP side will get absolutely creamed - no matter how commingled they may be with either Johnson or Shimkus..

Comment by Jimbo Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 3:33 pm
I guess it’s game over then! No GOP candidate yet…pretty amazing how this works! How do you adequately poll against a scenario of possible “candidates”, yet to be picked or haven’t campaigned at all & come to a conclusion that really means anything. Against the “mystery candidate”…-3- time candidate Gill isn’t doing that great.

Comment by anon Thursday, Apr 19, 12 @ 4:43 pm
It may be a new district, but Gill’s name has been in the news plenty. I’m astonished his numbers aren’t better against no name staffers. When Gill’s very progressive stances on wedge issues are highlighted, he will be a tough sell to conservative Democrats and independents. You’re a LONG way from Urbana, David.

Comment by LincolnLounger Friday, Apr 20, 12 @ 8:38 am