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U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) today released a new poll from Public Opinions Strategies showing that, despite millions being spent against him by outside groups in recent weeks, Schilling is starting to pull away from his opponent, Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline).

At the same time, Schilling released fundraising totals for the third quarter showing he raised $617,826.37 in that span, pushing his total fundraising efforts for the 2011-12 election cycle over $2.1 million. The campaign currently has $839,000 cash on hand.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll surveyed 400 likely voters and gave Schilling a 51-44 lead over Bustos. 45 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Schilling, while 34 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, just 34 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Bustos, while 38 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll also found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Illinois 17th District by a 50-44 margin.

We Ask America had Bustos ahead by less than a point on October 9th. The firm had Obama ahead of Romney by almost 12 points, not the 6-point margin in Schilling’s poll.

* Meanwhile, the DCCC has a new poll showing Democrat Brad Schneider leading Republican Bob Dold by a single point, 44-43. That October 14th poll tracks pretty closely with We Ask America’s October 9th poll which had Dold up by less than 2 points. This race appears to be quite close.

* From the DCCC…

Our poll shows the President leading Romney by 12 points (54% - 42%), paving a path for Schneider to increase his lead.

We Ask America had Obama leading by 10, 53-43.

DCCC methodology…

The data in this memo is from a survey of 451 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Illinois’ 10th Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.

* OK, on to the DCCC’s new TV ads. The first hits Bobby Schilling on Medicare….

Script…

We work a lifetime for these moments…

We save…and plan so there’s peace of mind in retirement.

But some in Washington like Bobby Schilling would end that security… end the guarantee of Medicare…

Schilling would hand decisions about our health care to insurance companies…

To give more tax breaks to millionaires.

Bobby Schilling needs to remember: he works for us.

And we work our whole lives…for this.

* Another “Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything” spot…

Script…

In Washington, special interests are drowning out the middle-class.

But if you send this Plummer to Congress, he’ll make it worse.

Jason Plummer signed a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs.

And he’d give more tax breaks to millionaires like himself — while making the middle-class pay thousands more.

Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything…what makes you think he’ll work for you?

* And Rodney Davis is hit on outsourcing jobs…

Script…

47,000 Illinois jobs lost.
Sent overseas in unfair trade deals.
47,000 families left to scrape by… while corporations are rewarded for the mass layoffs.
Rewarded by politicians like Rodney Davis who want to hand them tax breaks for shipping our jobs overseas.
47,000 more reasons why Rodney Davis is wrong for Illinois.

I didn’t see any new GOP ads posted on YouTube this afternoon, but if or when I do I’ll update the post.

*** UPDATE *** A pretty good Rodney Davis ad I missed…

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 1:55 pm

Comments

I think the Schilling campaign has the momentum. The poll from the most recent debate had Schilling winning 85%…their fundraising is clearly better…cash on hand is superior…and now this Public Opinion Strategies poll? After being outspent significantly the Schilling campaign is still ahead. The writing is on the wall, it is only a matter of time the DCCC starts to pull out…what they are doing isn’t working. Hope someone can get their babysitting gig back.

Comment by Jonathan Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 3:22 pm
===The poll from the most recent debate===

Was that one of those online polls which aren’t polls?

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 3:28 pm
Public Opinion Strategies is used by Republicans that want to appear like they are doing better than they are.

How many poling firms also produce partisan political ads, POS has. POS produced the infamous anti health care ad “Harry and Louise” in the early 90s. They have been accused of push polling and was charged with violating polling disclosure laws in Virginia.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Public_Opinion_Strategies

Comment by Paul Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 3:43 pm
When was the Schilling/POS poll conducted?

Comment by Pokemon Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 4:10 pm
This poll was released October 9. It shows Schilling and Bustos tied at 46 each.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/il/illinois_17th_district_schilling_vs_bustos-3308.html

Comment by Paul Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 4:41 pm
===This poll was released October 9===

Yes, and it’s clearly linked above. Open your eyes, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 4:44 pm
Schilling is toast!

Comment by redrum Tuesday, Oct 16, 12 @ 4:59 pm
“Public Opinion Strategies is used by Republicans that want to appear like they are doing better than they are.”

Patently false. Plenty of Republicans get mad at them for not reporting back better numbers and never use them for the remainder of their campaigns that really were doomed after all.

Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Oct 17, 12 @ 4:32 am