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* Your final election predictions, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 9:49 am
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Obama carries Illinois by 15.
Walsh gone.
Biggert/Foster too close to call tonight, must wait for absentees, provisionals.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 9:55 am
POTUS: Obama
US Senate: Dems
US House: GOP
IL Congress:
Dold > Schneider
Schilling > Bustos
Enyart > Plummer
Biggert > Foster
Duckworth > Walsh
Davis > Gill
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 9:59 am
Obama will win the electoral votes, but may lose the nationwide total votes. Duckworth, Dold, Biggert win. Nationwide, the House becomes slightly more Republican (3-5 more seats). The Republican senate candidates in Indiana and Missouri lose.
Comment by Darienite Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:02 am
Obama gets over 300 electoral votes.
Walsh blown out.
Shilling, Dold hold on.
Plummer no, Enyart yes.
Foster by a hair.
Shock for Governor signs pop up on November 7.
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:02 am
Obama wins with 303 electoral votes.
Enyart beats Plummer by 3-4.
Duckworth wins handily.
Rodney Davis by 6-8.
Bill Foster by 2.
Schilling wins, but we don’t find out until later this week.
Here’s my longshot- Schneider wins after a drawn-out absentee/provisional fight.
Comment by tikkunolam Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:09 am
Obama 281-257 ECV’s
Duckworth, Dold, Foster, Bustos, Gill & Enyart
Madigan & Cullerton gain seats, the map is the difference maker!
Comment by Ubecha Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:13 am
Obama 290 ECVs.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:16 am
Your final election predictions, please.
My prediction?
There will be less email, mail, tv ads, phone calls, newspaper ads, yard signs, flyers and other junk … tomorrow.
And… the good ol’ US of A will have survived another election.
And and… Rich has a blow-out bash with Google and Channel 5.
What happens at NBC Tower stays at NBC Tower.
Comment by G. Willickers Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:21 am
CD 8 - Duckworth +14
CD 10 - Dold +6
CD 11 - Foster +3
CD 12 - Enyart +3
CD 13 - Davis 50 +3
CD 17 – Bustos by fewer than 1000 votes over Schilling
Presidency: Obama 303, Romney 235. Obama takes Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Romney takes Florida and North Carolina. Closes states in order: Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa.
Popular: Obama 50.3, Romney 48.8
US Senate:
Massachusetts: Warren +5
Connecticut: Murphy +6
Missouri: McCaskill 52 +4
Indiana: Donnelly +3
Virginia: Kaine 51 +2
Arizona: Flake 52.5 +5
Montana: Tester by 0.5 (this is 0.5 either way)
Wisconsin: Baldwin +2
Nevada: Heller 5 +4
Ohio: Brown +8
Pennsylvania: Casey +9
Florida: Nelson +10
Nebraska: Fisher +10
Comment by nrebreg Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:21 am
Obama 300 electoral
Duckworth beats Walsh
Biggert beats Foster
Dold beats Schneider
Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown
Michelle Bachman loses her seat
The Democrats win Senate in Indiana and Missouri
Comment by Jake L Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:22 am
Presidential/Ohio is undecided tonight but then Obama wins barely after the Ohio provisional votes get counted.
Schneider squeaks out a win. Duckworth by 6%
Biggert, Schilling, Enyart, Davis all win.
Madigan +4
Cullerton +1
Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:23 am
Schneider
Duckworth
Foster
Davis
Enyart
Bustos
Saviano wins.
Obama 51% popular, Romney 48%
Obama 303 electoral, Romney 235
Donnelly wins in Indy, McCaskill wins in Mo. GOP legislators flunk 8th grade Health.
As a public service to my GOP friends, here are the electoral college totals for GOP candidates since 1992, when a good man and a great patriot named George HW Bush took some bad advice and ran further to the right.
1992: 168
1996: 159
2000: 271 (with a little help from the Supremes)
2004: 286
2008: 173
That’s slicing the baloney awfully thin.
One last reminder, due to the choices of the first Republican president, from Springfield, and the second, from Galena, the capital is in Washington, not Richmond.
Please keep that in mind going forward.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:25 am
Romney 52-48
obama 294-244
US Senate Democrats 52-48
US House Democrats +3
Obama in Illinois +16
Duckworth +13
Dold +5
Foster +3
Plummer+5
Davis +4
Schilling +7
-Romney will cruise in the popular vote because of unmotivated obama young voters and minorities and sandy in blue states, but lose because the war on women destroyed him in the va suburbs and bain destroyed him in ohio
-Pelosi steps down. Van Hollen takes over.
-Hillary resigns from State tomorrow starting 2016 feeding frenzy.
-Right blames christie for romney’s defeat
-Media upset that voters stick with status quo, struggle to explain how conservative superpacs come up empty with no white house or senate.
-House Democrat gains come more from Republicans who slept walk through their races than any actual work they did.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:29 am
Obama: 294 electoral votes (including WI, OH, IA, NH, VA). Wins popular vote by 1.5%.
Duckworth, Dold, Foster, Enyart, R. Davis, Bustos.
Dems gain one in the US Senate and 6 in the House.
Comment by 60611 Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:30 am
I will get a massive headache as Cynthia Brim is retained.
Comment by Carlos S. Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:30 am
Obama 303 ECV after picking up Virginia and Colorado
Dold
Duckworth
Enyart
Davis
Bustos
Popular vote (with 3rd parties factored in) Obama 49 Romney 48 Johnson 2 Stein 1
Comment by UISer Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:30 am
Wordslinger someone made the great point yesterday the gop hasn’t won a presidential election by more than one state since 1988 when the christian right took over. You look at how the tea party is playing in senate races statewide and in this romney-ryan race and you start to get deja vu all over again with the right.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:31 am
In the State Senate, it will be Pankau,Kotowski,Morrison,Neal,Stadelman,Albracht,Koehler,Sullivan,Bertino-Tarrant,Haine and Forby giving the Dems a 36-23 Majority.
In the House, it will be Derrick Smith, O’Keefe-Conroy,McSweeney,Moylan,Mussman,Nekritz,Drury,Sente,Cabello,Morthland,Verschoore,Saviano,Nixon,Kifowit,Scerer,Kalnicky,Beiser, and CostelloII.
The big upset will be Sam Yingling over Sandy Cole in the 62nd up in Lake Co.
This gives the Dems a 67-51 majority in the house.
train111
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:35 am
House Dems 67 seats Senate Dems 35 seats; If house GOP loses Cole then Cross will be challenged for minority leader..
Comment by PQ's Primary Opponent Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:39 am
Romney
Dold
Duckworth
Schilling
Davis
Enyart
Foster
Comment by Disconnect Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:43 am
Micheal J Madigan.
Comment by And the winner is... Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:43 am
–Wordslinger someone made the great point yesterday the gop hasn’t won a presidential election by more than one state since 1988 when the christian right took over.–
Well, I’m a Christian, and I don’t accept the handle that they apply to their politics.
But that crowd, along with their sinister, knuckle-dragging allies in Rupert and Rush, have destroyed the Main Street GOP of my youth. And that’s a dirty shame.
Further GOP electoral college facts:
1968: 301
1972: 520
1976: 240
1980: 489
1984: 525
1988: 426
They didn’t sweat Ohio back in the day.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:45 am
The conspiracy theories start as soon as the results start rolling in that don’t look so good for Romney.
Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:45 am
Obama 57 Romney 43 in Illinois
Bustos 52.2 Schilling 47.8 (presidential year tide washes Schilling out as fast as he was washed in in 2010)
Sen Mike Jacobs 51.5 Bill Albracht 48.5
Rep. Pat VErschoore 58.0 Neil Anderson 42.0
Rep. Rich Morthland 53.5 Mike Smiddy 46.5
Comment by NW Illinois Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:53 am
The fringe candidates on both sides lose.
The presidential cycle is about returning to sanity.
The fringe…Akins, gills, plummers head back to the shed to plot their county board races.
Obama wins, but very limited coattails.
In spite of the vitriol, the public continues to elect people whom represent the status quo.
Comment by Madison Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:54 am
My election predictions:
On Wednesday, the GOP will blame:
The “liberal” media
Voter fraud
Sandy
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:56 am
Wordslinger, Rupert and Rush have destroyed Main Street GOP, all to true.
Comment by Tobor Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 10:57 am
The good news for Sling as somebody mentioned a few weeks ago, the tea party influence will wane as the GOP realizes they are almost out of angry, white, elderly males.
Comment by Madison Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:00 am
“Crocker Jarmon by six percent.”
Comment by Brendan Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:03 am
8th - Duckworth +11
10th - Dold +5
11th - Biggert +1
12th - Plummer +2
13th - Davis +3
17th – Schilling +6
POTUS: Romney 291 (CO, FL, NH, NC, PA, VA, WI), Obama 247 (IA, MI, NV, OH)
Comment by East Sider Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:04 am
Any predictions out there on the Illinois constl amendment re pension changes?
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:04 am
Political gridlock remains and the people continue to lose.
Comment by Mountain Man Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:12 am
They didn’t sweat Ohio back in the day.
I hadn’t thought of that until you said it, but yeah, Ohio as a swing state is really huge. All of those Republican Presidents from there–I guess Harrison was probably a Whig, but the rest were GOP.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:15 am
Aldyth, conspiracy theories have already been in full effect as to why Romney will win the election.
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:16 am
Carlos S,
Yes, that too! All the judges will be retained including the ones who are rude, sarcastic, have a poor work ethic or consistently put their thumb on the scale for the prosecution.
Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:17 am
President Obama wins Pop Vote and EC
Dold over Schneider
Enyart over Plummer
Duckworth over Walsh
Nekritz wins
Saviano wins
Mathias wins over Sente
Lauzen loses
Comment by mongo Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:30 am
Tom Cross golfs 4 over par.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:30 am
Illinois House Republicans net one loss. Mathias and Saviano win, Cole loses, Nekritz wins.
US House nets 3 total Republican pickup nationwide. In Illinois Walsh loses, Plummer loses, Bustos loses, Foster loses, Schneider loses.
Illinois Senate Democrats pick up 1. Neal and Pankau win.
US Senate nets one Republican pickup. Mass - Scott Brown wins. Indiana and Missouri Republicans lose both Senate races. Wisconsin - Tommy Thompson wins.
For President (going against all conventional wisdom) Romney wins. Picks up FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, WI, NH, CO, ME(2) in late surge. If I turn out to be right I look like a genius, right?
Comment by phocion Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:32 am
Just one prediction: 99% of Americans will be glad this bleepin’ election is over.
Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:33 am
Romney wins OH, Wisconsin, Iowa and the presidency.
Constitutional Amendment is approved.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:33 am
Wednesday 49.9% will be complaining about the results …
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:41 am
Romney wins popular election
Romney wins electoral vote by the slightest of margins
Const. amendment question is defeated 53% to 47%
Comment by East Central Illinois Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:50 am
I predict that the Pres race will be too close to call tonight. Hoping for a Romney win.
Comment by Concerned Voter Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 11:54 am
The the Illinois Constitutional Amendment regarding pension rights will be defeated!
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 12:05 pm
We won’t know POTUS for awhile. The Courts will end up deciding (again). Does your vote count if the Court decides?
Comment by CynicL Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 12:27 pm
According to the Chicago Sun Times website: High traffic crashes Chicago elections website
Chicago’s election website crashed Tuesday because of unprecedented traffic due to voters searching for new polling places and high interest in the presidential election.
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 12:27 pm
Rodney Davis by 5.
Comment by Chambana Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 12:32 pm
The luck of the Irish will prevail and President Barack O’Bama will muddle through the election with a mere 330 or so electoral votes. He will also win the popular vote by 2.86 percent.
Dems pick up two seats in the US Senate and the GOP loses House seats but retains control
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 12:36 pm
Obama 286 Romney 252 Mid -West fire wall holds up.
Dems win Senate Indiana has new Democratic Senator
Mckaskill wins Mo.
Republicans take House Ohio’s Boehner loses Speakers job.
Comment by mokenavince Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 1:07 pm
Obama turns an ankle in his B-ball pick up game today. Romney wins by 4 and 279 electoral. Schilling wins by 2-4 pts.
Jacobs loses by 4-6 pts.
..and Madigan eats an apple.
Comment by WazUp Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 1:13 pm
I predict the losers will whine and offer excuses like blaming the media, biased polling and any thing else they can think of instead of accepting the decision of the voters with some grace and humility. Voters usually get it right.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 1:27 pm
prediction: A bunch of campaign workers will file unemployment claims on Thursday, Most won’t be able to leave where ever they ended up tonight after the open bar, so they will need to wait till thursday.
Comment by frustrated GOP Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 1:49 pm
Arne Duncan defeats students and teachers in the down-ballot Race to the Top.
Comment by The End Is Near Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 1:50 pm
Regardless, 4 more years of gridlock.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 2:03 pm
In the Big 6 House races in IL
Repubs: Schilling, Dold, Davis
Dems; Enyart, Foster, Duckworth
Senate Republicans win upsets in Bill Albracht, Arie Friedman and Randy Frese
House Republicans win upsets with Glenn Nixon, Kathy Smith and Neil Anderson
Romney 279-259. IA Obama. WI Romney
Comment by Jon Zahm Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 2:21 pm
Utilizing winter rules, leader Cross shaves three strokes off the back 9
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 2:24 pm
Obama 332 EV if he carries Florida, 303 if he does not. Florida will go to a recount given the state of the race and the half percentage point law, my gut feeling is Obama very narrowly wins it given the early voting patterns.
US Senate. Democrat. One or two gains. Biggest potential for a surprise, Kerrey in Nebraska, but I don’t think he’ll quite make it. Very close though. But just an extra percent or two could give the Dems as many as five pickups while just a percent or two off could put them in a net loss. It’s that close.
US House. Republican. About ten to 15 Dem gains.
Illinois>
Enyart. Duckworth. The easy ones out of the way.
Should be Dold, but the intensity of his advertising the last few days makes me wondering if the race has closed
Foster very narrowly over Biggert.
Davis very narrowly over Gill
Toss a coin on Schilling-Bustos. Hare’s defeat last time was marked among other things by notably good GOTV in Whiteside County and a collapse in turnout elsewhere. What’s the ground game like now? Because that will determine the winner.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 2:26 pm
I forecast that the Presidential results won’t be know until November 19 or later. Provisional, early, absentee, e-mail and fax votes finally counted and after all challenges are sorted out… Hello Supreme Court… lol
Comment by one day at a time Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 2:55 pm
Obama - wins Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio, so the presidential race is effectively over early.
Bustos
Enyart
Biggert
Dold
Duckworth
Davis
Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 3:22 pm
Cullerton +4
Madigan +3
Comment by lbr Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 3:39 pm
Obama over 300 electoral votes. Early night.
Walsh is toast.
Enyart a winner.
Biggert defeats Foster.
Dold wins.
Bustos wins.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 3:40 pm
Romney wins the presidential race, 291-247, winning Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
Duckworth wins.
Biggert wins.
Plummer wins.
Davis wins.
Comment by Bob E. Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 3:46 pm
Obama wins all 57 states including Mexico.
Comment by jt Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 3:59 pm
I predict that my wife and I wil be able to
watch tv tomorrow without cringing every ten
minutes or so because of a politicl ad.
The people who pay for them should save their money-most folks quit listening after the presidential debates (or before).
Comment by Esteban Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 4:06 pm
errant drive by Cross kills a goose, omen to the outcome. con. amend fails. fox network first to scream change needed to popular vote vs. evc. lunchapial republican poster child Joe Walsh accepts job at Otto engineering, as womens liason to the “right”.
Comment by railrat Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 4:45 pm
Nothing changes. DC gridlock does not solve fed tax issue. GA simply kicks a bigger can. The local candidates who promised ’solutions’ will start their spin. Rush prepares his Ditto-heads for 12/21/12 melt down and claims a financial Sandy is coming. Winners start thinking ‘why did I do this?’.
Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 5:15 pm
Upsets: Mathias over Sente, Yingling over Cole.
Nekritz and Skip will hold on.
Comment by Oh, please... Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 5:16 pm
Building off of Wordslinger and others, let me offer the following:
20 years ago, as a student at U of I, I played a very small role in Illinois’ voting for a Democrat for what had been the first time since 1964. (This was before the blue state, red state thing for anyone reading who is under 30)
Up until 1992, Illinois was considered a battleground state which, although close in some years, usually voted for the Republicans at the top of the ticket. Since that time, Illinois has been a Democratic state.
Sure, there have been some setbacks (1994) along the way (at which time the state Rep we helped elect by 34 votes two years earlier was soundly defeated after she thought she had been elected in Evanston instead of Champaign. But I digress)
Now for predictions:
Shore has it down very well. I won’t go through the individual races as he does, but I agree largely with him/her. Nicely done.
My certain predictions (also, as another poster alluded to):
*Moderate Republicans continue to be driven out of the party (i.e. Dick Lugar) as Tea people blame Mitt for moving to far middle (or sane)
*GOP senators, seeing the political cost of even appearing to be bipartisan, continue to force the unprecidented number of cloture votes (e.g. fillibusters) the Senate has taken in the past 2 years.
*Dems keep Senate and gain less than 10 in House (yeah, I wish it were more, but having the 2010 GOP wave election before redistricting and reapportionment makes it just too difficult to overcome that.
*Madigan and Cullerton each gain a few. My compliments to the staff. (some of whom I may not care for much, but regardless: with ALL of them their heart in the right place and they deliver.)
We now have something I never thought I’d see in my lifetime: an man with African American background is running for re-election as President of the United States. And with a funny name to boot.
Regardless of the outcome of this election, no one can take that away.
And the move forward continues.
Comment by persepctive Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 5:18 pm
President Obama wins 2nd term (IL. by 15-16%) although Fla., N.C. and Va. go for the Gov.,and while Cheesehead State goes Blue again(sorry Mr. Ryan). Welcome to the U.S. Congress Ms. Duckworth (Child Support whack Ad REALly stung). Dold and Biggert probably hang on too. Enjoy all ‘o Ya Political Junkies…(admit it now)….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Nov 6, 12 @ 6:47 pm