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It’s a swing district

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* Rodney Davis launched his congressional reelection bid yesterday. Sen. Dick Durbin blasted Davis on Sunday…

“He just continues to follow the tea party line in Washington,” Durbin said before a Democratic State Central Committee meeting in Springfield. “That may be good news in his Republican primary, but this is a pretty evenly divided district. Come the general election, he’ll have some questions to answer.

Actually, the 13th District has swung wildly between Democratic and Republican, depending on the year. Obama stomped John McCain 55-42. But Judy Baar Topinka beat Rod Blagojevich 48-37 in the 2006 off-year, and Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn in the next off-year election 54-37. On average, I suppose, it’s “evenly divided,” but in reality, it swings with the national winds.

One reason for this swing is the large number of college students in the district. It includes the U of I, ISU and tons of other schools.

* The wild swings back and forth are a big reason why Rep. Jay Hoffman and other bigtime Democrats decided to take a pass last year. They thought they could win last year, but figured they would have real trouble being reelected in Obama’s final off-year election.

That’s why both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have this race as “Lean Republican.” The only reason so far why it isn’t rated as “Likely Republican” is because the Democrats plan to spend lots of cash there. But I’m not sure they can pull this off.

…Adding… Some folks seem unclear on the concept here. Those election results are based on the new district lines, not the old ones. So, yeah, Davis had a tough race last year, but if the pattern holds, it won’t be nearly as tough next year.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:09 am

Comments

Davis is going to have a bruising primary that will be costly as he defends against Miss America of ten years ago.

That will deplete his coffers, making him weaker in the general.

Surprisingly, despite strong gun owner support last election, he can’t find time in his schedule to visit us as of yet.

Hmmm.

Comment by John Boch Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:24 am
===Davis is going to have a bruising primary ===

I’ll be polling that again, but the last poll had Erika Harold ~~in single digits~~ at 16 percent, with Davis at 54.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:25 am
“tea party line”

I saw a couple of polls with some significant data regarding Republicans. In an older minimum wage poll, Republicans who were not in the Tea Party supported raising the minimum wage, while Tea Party Republicans did not. In another more-recent poll, Republicans not in the Tea Party support compromise, while Tea Party respondents strongly do not.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:27 am
Guessing …

Over/Under is 15% for Erika.

Rodney Over/Under at 53%.

I hear Bruce Rauner is looking for a #2.

To the Post,

It will be a nice “Hold” for the GOP if Rodney can keep it, but Callis, with her being a judge, and where she sat on the bench, that also comes with some serious baggage for Callis to have to take on, with the GOP doing all they can to keep Rodney there.

It will be close, but you have to give Rodney the edge as Rich has pointed out so well, and add teh power of the incumbency in that recipe, and that Rodney is very hard-working, Rodney is in good shape to try to defend the seat.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:31 am
Rodney will throttle Harold in this primary - if she doesn’t drop out/decide not to file - and will have no problem holding on in the general. I hope the Dems spend millions against him, because he’s still going to win, and it’s money they won’t be able to spend elsewhere.

Comment by Amusing Myself Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:36 am
Erika Harold is best chance GOP has to keep this seat. What has Davis done beyond voting to gut food stamps from farm bill and rubber stamping rest of tea party agenda? Guy is an empty suit.

Oh right, a congressional committee did name him a non-cooperating witness in the Schock fundraising investigation. So he’s got that going for him.

Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:47 am
The 13th is an all new(gerrymandered) district created in 2012 (I believe it was a suburban district before that), therefore the only results that matter are those from 2012, which means Davis will have a tough fight on his hands. He only beat that idiot David Gill by 1000 votes or so.

Comment by The AntiObama Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:55 am
Here we go again. This will be a very tough race and hard to beat Ann Callis which is why its goin to take someone who can reach non-traditional voters who don’t always vote Republican. That is why Erika is the best candidate in this race. She will beat Ann Callis. Rodney will lose and the seat will be lost until redistricting. We all know this and that’s why Rodney’s backers are prone to racist outbursts when confronted with the facts.

Its time for the old white men to stop telling historic candidates like Erika Harold to get to the back of the bus or try to bully those who represent the future to get out of the way. No more thuggery, Vote Erika to save America!

Comment by joan Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 10:57 am
Davis is but another dot in the wilderness wandering of the Illinois republican party. His challenges are as much about the republican party’s inability to find solid message/brand/solutions footing as they are about his race. What brand does dold run on? or Rauner if his money buys him that primary? Or Kirk in 2016 or joe shmo the suburban state rep candidate whose neighbors want to liberate themselves from the peoples republic of madiganistan?

Comment by Shore Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:02 am
===therefore the only results that matter are those from 2012===

No. Those numbers are from the newly drawn district, overlayed on the past results.

Sheesh. Do you think I’m stupid?

Don’t answer that. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:08 am
Its WAY too early to be calling 2014 Congressional races. Barring any major faux pas by either candidate, this race will be competitive.

Gill lost by about .03% in 2012.

I believe the new 13th district has a small Democratic voter registration advantage. (Could be wrong. Anyone have stats?)

Rich, the stats you quote, are those based on the new lines or straight from the old district?

Either way, my point is this a swing district either party can claim. The fact that it is Lean Republican right now is a win for Davis.

Both parties will be spending a lot of money here. Nothing is sure thing.

Comment by Kelly Dietrich Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:11 am
EDIT: Gill lost by .3% NOT .03% in 2012.

Comment by Kelly Dietrich Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:12 am
=== are those based on the new lines===

Of course they are.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:17 am
===Vote Erika to save America!===

lol

Hyperbole at its finest.

So, Erika is going to save America, and if we don’t vote for her over a sitting Republican Congressman, and over Callis, then America is doomed?

Yikes!

===Erika Harold is best chance GOP has to keep this seat.===

Based on what, being down over 40 points to Rodney in the first polling in the race?

It’s a GOP seat today, and running to unseat a 1st term Congressman in the Primary … based on … I don’t even know why Erika is running besides Tim Johnson’s Ex-Staffers looking for jobs, coupled with Erika’s Hubris, Erika Harold is what is wrong with these type of Primary challenges.

Run for Jakkobson’s seat, if you are in that district, or are you still living in Chicago?

Well, run if you must Erika, godspeed.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:18 am
Wow, the Champaign County GOP Temper Tantrum folks are out in force today!

Rodney coasts comfortably in this primary. If she breaks 37%, it would surprise me. I know Rodney well, but I’m not a fan. That being said, he’s done nearly everything right. He’s everywhere in the district and all over the news. Even when his votes are extreme to some, he comes across as reasonable and attractive.

Not to be taken for granted, but this district will be fairly comfortable for Rodney in a non-presidential year. Durbin won’t have a real race, and Quinn’s numbers are abysmal downstate. What’s the reason college kids and committed Democrats have to come out? To support Quinn? I doubt it.

After he wins this time, I think this district will be fairly locked down for Rodney until it’s time to draw again.

Comment by LincolnLounger Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:24 am
Willy, have you ever actually met Erika and Rodney?

Hard to imagine anyone supporting Rodney after they meet them both in person. Would be like sticking with a Yugo when someone says you can have a BMW.

Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:25 am
-Sheesh. Do you think I’m stupid-

Well,no, but you were presenting numbers from 06, 08, and 10 when the district didn’t exist in its current form - just sayin’

Comment by The AntiObama Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:26 am
If you want to hold a swing district, you run someone strong with swing voters. Some good ole boy hilljack from Taylorville isn’t going to do. This seat belongs to Champaign county and we are going to take it back from the hillbillies and hard-right knuckledraggers that seem to think they have something to contribute to society besides moonshine.

Comment by phil Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:27 am
AntiObama-

Let me spell this out for you. You know all the people in the 13th district now? You know they voted in past elections, right? You know you can use that data and figure out how a district voted using the current lines?

It isn’t rocket science.

Comment by John Bambenek Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:29 am
===This seat belongs to Champaign county===

Madison, McLean, Sangamon and a whole lot of others would disagree with you. Get over yourselves. Your guy Johnson held that seat for years, but it doesn’t “belong” to a single county.

Also, one more goofy post like that and you’re banned for life.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:33 am
This really isn’t all that hard. College kids and minorities will cross over to vote for Erika and we have grown the party. Looking at the winning math in Champaign, a swing county, Gordy Hulten as Clerk, Katie Blakeman as Circuit Clerk and John Farney as auditor. All winning handily because they are young energetic candidates. That’s why Champaign wins with candidates and will win with Erika. What does Rodney offer besides events with Natty Lite at the local tractor pull?

Comment by Mark Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:36 am
===Some good ole boy hilljack from Taylorville isn’t going to do. This seat belongs to Champaign county and we are going to take it back from the hillbillies and hard-right knuckledraggers that seem to think they have something to contribute to society besides moonshine.===

Couple points …

“…This seat belongs to Champaign county…”

According to …whom?

If you didn’t have Jerry Clarke writing “heartfelt” form letters or securing donaim names before Tim Johnson stepped down, Champaign county might have one of their own.

But the seat belongs to Illinois, based on Population, allocated and drawn in Illinois based on the number of voters that each district has in population. When I look to see in the Constitution of the United States that Champaign County must have a Congressional seat, then I will be wrong.

“…the hillbillies and hard-right knuckledraggers that seem to think they have something to contribute to society besides moonshine.”

Are ya speaking for Erika, or just yourself.

what is exciting is if you are speaking for yourself, and supporting Erika, then I am glad Erika’s supporters are raising the discussion as to “why” Erika needs to run in this Primary.

Dope.

As for meeting them personally, I have not, but looking at what each is running for, and WHY they are running, and the logic of both, and the campaigns of both, considering the district, and that Rodney won, is workig hard, doing all the right things, and Erika is being backed by the Tim Johnson Ex-Staffers, and it appears some “colorful” supporters like above, I will take my chances with Rodney, given ALL the factors of Rodney Davis, congressman, Republican.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:36 am
It was a very close race in 2012. Davis will have the advantage as he is the incumbent and the parts of the district where I live is heavily Republican despite what is said about ISU voters being more liberal–plus students typically don’t vote in high numbers in non-presidential years. And, now that most ISU students do not live on campus, many now are in parts of Normal that are in Congressman Schock’s district.

I have not seen/heard much from Erika Harold in this part of the district. There is more to the district than Chambana.

Democrats have to work harder in this district and there more D’s now in the Twin Cities but they are outnumbered by the R’s.

A Dem could win with a good GOTV ground game. Judge Callis has to be a far better candidate for them than Dr. Gill.

Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:37 am
Shore, that’s some good stuff. On the Congressional level, just what does the GOP stand for?

We know that the majority in the House GOP doesn’t like a lot of people. Most people, as a matter of fact. Apparently, most United States citizens are an incredible burden to them as they seek the nostalgia of a “Leave it to Beaver” world that never existed.

I like Kirk. Any GOPer who will stick a thumb in the eye of the NRA, reject the anti-gay bigots and watch out for the fresh water of the Great Lakes is a keeper.

Have to start somewhere.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:37 am
“Erika is being backed by the Tim Johnson Ex-Staffers.” In fact her support is of course much broader than that. She’s the ideal face for the GOP. A welcome change from the failed past.

Rodney is just a leftover hack from Shimkus and disgraced former gop chair Pat Brady.

Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:41 am
===Judge Callis has to be a far better candidate for them than Dr. Gill.===

She is a better candidate, but has some real OR problems.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:46 am
===In fact her support is of course much broader than that.===

I guess you are going to go with the “Over 15%” on the next Poll?

What do you base this “support”? Rich polled this District and Erika was in SINGLE digits, while Rodney was…well, … higher than single digits.

===…She’s the ideal face for the GOP. A welcome change from the failed past.===

Jakkobson’s seat is “Open”, how about a “turn” helping the HGOP in the IL General Assembly?

No? Not “important” enough?

Ryne Sandberg is the Manager of the Phillies. Sandberg rode buses in the Minors for years …YEARS …

Erika afraid of coming up through the ranks?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:49 am
===Rich polled this District and Erika was in SINGLE digits, while Rodney was…well, … higher than single digits.===

54 percent.

And, I misremembered. Harold was at 16.

Obviously, it’s rare to see an incumbent polling above 50 lose. Also, his approval rating among GOP primary voters was 51 percent.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:55 am
So when do we get the Before/After, Rich?

Comment by John Bambenek Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:56 am
OW and Rich, I think you need to turn on your sarcasm meter when you read some of the “pro-Erika” posts.

Comment by Hmmm Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:56 am
===What does Rodney offer besides events with Natty Lite at the local tractor pull?===

The power of the incumbency in defeating Erika Harold?

See, Rodney won. Rodney got sworn-in, and is seating in Congress.

Erika can work her way up in Champaign.

I added the “Sandberg” to make a point, that sometimes, no matter how someone is seen in one light, to be part of something else, dues are not a bad thing, and with Jakobsson’e seat “Open”, why not go to the General Assembly, bring diversity to Leader Durkin’s Caucus, save money for Rodney in the short run, give Durkin a viable candidate to run down there…

Erika is shooting for the stars, while shooting herself in the foot, all the while the Jakobsson seat could use a Republican candidate that can appeal to College kids, is young, energetic …

Golly, unless Erika can’t because Erika can’t pass residency, living in Chicago and all …

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:57 am
Davis’ disapproval among Republicans, btw, was 6 percent.

Date of Poll: 06/10/13. Responses: 1178 likely GOP primary voters. Margin of error: ±2.86%

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 11:58 am
Thanks for the clarification, Rich, appreciate that.

54-16 …that first poll makes this a “barn burner”.

I am glad you made that point as well, that incumbents over 50%…

===Obviously, it’s rare to see an incumbent polling above 50 lose….===

My point as well. What is Erika’s motivation? what is the Tim Johnson Ex-Staffers’ motivation?

It seems to be going against what the GOP in the District are saying in that Poll.

I look forward to the next poll.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:03 pm
Wow at some of the comments on this post. Who says elitism is reserved only for the liberal side of college towns?

Champaign County is not entitled to anything. If anything, Davis is well-positioned in being from near the geographic center of the district rather than on one extreme end or the other like Harold and Callis. Despite his faults, there is no good reason for the GOP to give up the power of incumbency here. And yes, if Harold wants to short-circuit her nascent political career by causing an unnecessary primary challenge and making a slew of enemies in the process, that’s her choice. Just be prepared to pay the consequences down the road. Barring something dramatic, she has no path to a primary win here.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:13 pm
In the six wonderful years I spent at UofI getting my four year degree I never once heard of Champaign County having moonshine. Believe me, there’d have been an Unofficial Moonshine Festival if it existed.

Comment by otoh Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:14 pm
I am just going to pretend that the “joan” that keeps commenting pro-Erika stuff here and on Illinois Review is Joan Dykstra because that would just be too hilarious to handle.

Comment by J. Nolan Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:15 pm
@Hmmmm — OW and Rich, I think you need to turn on your sarcasm meter when you read some of the “pro-Erika” posts.

Doubtful. That’s really how they think.

Comment by LincolnLounger Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:17 pm
Please, that poll was taken before the campaign even began. Erika has had a tremendous national reception in the press and we can’t keep up with all the requests for eher to attend events around the country. In the last 7 or so days she was in DC, Atlanta and Chicago raising money

And let’s not forget that was also before Rodney’s staffer Jim Allen had a racists temper tantrum to intrepid reporter Doug Ibendahl that led to international negative media.

Erika is the future, Rodney is the past. The question is does he want to be part of the future by welcoming the meteoric rise of Erika or to be nothing more than a speed bump on her way to the top.

Comment by Mark Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:17 pm
“…save America!”

At this point it seems as though that cool-aid she has been drinking is spiked.

Comment by J. Nolan Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:18 pm
===That’s really how they think.===

Thank …you …(?)

Look, - LincolnLounger -, speaking ONLY in regards to me and that post, you might be the only person in last few weeks that accused ME of thinking.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:23 pm
… and as for how those posting thinking that sarcasm should be identified easily when talking about politics…

Usually we get a “heads-up” that its snark. Some people THINK as that posts is written, as - LincolnLounger - put very well.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:27 pm
So Rodney supporter(s) got in trouble for racist attacks on Erika, so now Rodney supporter posts something stupid about “hillbillies” and expect people to believe it’s really coming from an Erika supporter?

Seriously people? Really? This brain trust deserves a pass in a primary?

Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:28 pm
===After he wins this time, I think this district will be fairly locked down for Rodney until it’s time to draw again.===

This will only be his seat until Manar makes a move…

Comment by Under Influenced Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:31 pm
Good to see there is no lack of extremeism coming from that district, lol

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:37 pm
===Erika has had a tremendous national reception===

Erika running for Congress in Illinois, or for a National Title, but I digress …

===we can’t keep up with all the requests for eher to attend events around the country.===

When the first poll has you at 16%, your Incumbent opponent over 50%, how about you do a little less jet-setting, and a lot more district visiting.

===Erika is the future, Rodney is the past. The question is does he want to be part of the future by welcoming the meteoric rise of Erika or to be nothing more than a speed bump on her way to the top.===

Future? The future is promised to NO ONE.

Past? You mean the past, incumbent, Congressman, Republican. Ok.

Does this “rise” include a parachute, or will Erika fall like a rock after losing by heavey double-digits?

This Erika Harold campaign is waste and folly. What an absolute shame, Jakobsson’s seat is there for beginning of this “meteoric rise”, but … got to have the Hubris I guess.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:39 pm
@ Mark - LOL What?? Are you asking Rodney to just lay down and accept his inevitable defeat at the hands of the benevolent Ms. Harold??

What world do ya live in? I hope this one is Mark Shelden…again for the sake of chuckles. As everyone knows if you are white, male, christian, you MUST be part of the past..oh gosh…if only Rodney could change any of that… BUT he can’t. Must be a symptom of being from the past…if only he could “save America!” as Ms. Harold will. First Rodney must stand down though so he doesn’t become a “speed bump” in the midst of Harold’s “meteoric rise”.

This stuff writes itself…

Comment by J. Nolan Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 12:41 pm
==I believe the new 13th district has a small Democratic voter registration advantage. (Could be wrong. Anyone have stats?)==

Kelly - you know IL does not have party registration, only past partisan primary voting history history. Using that criteria and my main polling sample provider, using a very broad count of anybody who has participated in a partisan primary, there are ~ 106K Democratic past primary voters and 99K Republican past primary voters in this District. Not a big Dem advantage by any means, especially since the Dem number is likely pumped up by higher participation in 2008. As Ricj said, this is more of a swing / GOP leanish District rather than a Dem leaning area, especially if you dive under the hood and explore ideology, etc.

Comment by Dave Fako Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:06 pm
===In the last 7 or so days she was in DC, Atlanta and Chicago raising money.===

DC, understandable. Chicago, necessary but I wouldn’t trumpet that too much in the district. Atlanta? Georgia isn’t in the district. Heck, Atlanta, Illinois isn’t in the district.

As Willy suggests, perhaps visiting actual counties in the district outside of the ivy walls of Champaign might be in order. 40 points is a lot to make up, and the people in that district that I know don’t want or need a national celebrity representing them in Washington. They want someone who understands them, or at least goes out and tries to.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:12 pm
The News-Gazette had an article from Davis announcing his re-election bid: http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2013-09-23/davis-formally-announces-re-election-bid.html

His comments are funny, he says he is a voice trying to avoid last minute impasses, yet he votes to defund the Affordable Care Act. “The days of brinksmanship and fiscal cliffs and artificial deadlines, they need to end.” Yet look at which party he belongs to and how he votes. I just do not think he is very representative of the district.

Comment by Aspects Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:24 pm
Mark (Shelden, I suppose) wrote: “Erika has had a tremendous national reception in the press and we can’t keep up with all the requests for eher to attend events around the country.”

Uh yeah. Last time I checked, only residents of this district get to cast a vote in this race, not those at events throughout (not ‘around’) the country.

I’ve met them both. While Erika is easy on the eyes, I’m not impressed she spends her spare time and energies mentoring and uplifting prison inmates. I think there are a whole lot of better people who might benefit from mentoring… wounded veterans and their families, for instance.

John

Comment by John Boch Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:32 pm
Allow me to introduce you to now three ex-staffers posting for Erika; Joan, Mark and Phil. Please keep this in mind when you read their posts that their views do not reflect the views of rational thinking Champaign GOP voters…okay there’s probably only a handful of us but we try real hard. Illinois Board appointments and jobs for family and friends aren’t worth it.

Comment by Pesotum Pete Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:41 pm
I still find it humorous that people are outraged that Erika Harold is even running. The Republican voters did not get a choice in the matter given what happened. Even though I am not Republican or expect Erika Harold to win, I am glad she is running so that primary voters at least get a choice this year.

Comment by Aspects Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:41 pm
I’m not outraged she is running. I think it’s short-sighted and even dumb for someone who has potential and could win for other offices without taking on a GOP incumbent, but she can do what she wants. Much like Rauner, too often we see this “I’m (rich, beautiful, famous, etc.), and I’m just going to start at the top!” No paying dues, working their way up, or going along with the party to get along for them. Right now, her primary distinguishing features from Davis are not issue-based, and seem to be more “I’m not him, so vote for me just because.”

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 1:52 pm
- Ron Burgaundy -,

Well said,

And to your Post,

Let’s be honest about whatis going on here with Erika, and the Tim Johnson Ex-Staffers.

The Ex-Staffers want to get back at the fact that Rodney Davis is not their “choice”, and merge that with the Hubris of Erika Harold, wanting to be on a BIG stage, not the Illinois General Assembly, but Congress, you have to willing partners to reach their agreed means of beating Rodney Davis, and not about what is best for the GOP in Primaring a sitting Congressman.

The Ex-Staffers’ anger, and Erika Harold’s Hubris is enought of a reason to run a race that has a possible “star” be dismanteled, as she is down 35 plus points now, and the incumbent is over 50% in that same poll.

Funny thing about feeling entitled, it can effect anyone; no matter how wronged you feel, and no matter how important you think you should be, nationally and all.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:05 pm
=== figured they would have real trouble being reelected in Obama’s final off-year election ===

This x 10.

History teaches very clearly that 2nd-term presidents tend to be a fairly significant drag on the mid-term election of their fellow partisans.

That applies equally to both D’s and R’s.

This factor alone may alter the result of several races across America that were close last time around, and increase margins that were fairly narrow.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:05 pm
Nobody I know is “outraged” she’s running, but it’s sad to see her squander her potential in this Quixotic way. (And whoever coined the term “Erika Hubris” made me laugh out loud. Thanks.)

Somebody should tell her that John Shimkus started out by running for county office in Madison County.

Comment by LincolnLounger Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:14 pm
It is very much a swing district, but I believe it was drawn slightly Democrat. Davis only got about 47% of the vote last time and the Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn elections are both Chicago Democrats who are extremely unpopular even among downstate democrats.

This will be a tough election for Republicans during presidential years and and Democrats on off years. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned over a couple times in the next 8 years as it’s one of the few swing districts in the country and will always draw plenty of money.

That being said, Davis works very hard and if he can prevent conservative mishaps, keep his distance from the tea party without being primaries and win this year and next, he could have staying power, but the next two elections are crucial. The right-wing of the party is his worse enemy at this point.

Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:16 pm
Picking up on Willy’s points, the Illinois General Assembly was a good enough start for our current Harvard-educated President. He saved the ill-advised congressional primary run for later, and clearly was able to recover from it.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:16 pm
===I believe it was drawn slightly Democrat===

Yes, for presidential years. There was really nothing they could do about the off-years except hope they won in 2012 and use every possible advantage of incumbency to hold on. Oops.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:20 pm
In re: Erika Harold

It is sad to see the way this has been playing out.

She has (had) tremendous potential.

Unfortunately, a select few ex-Johnson staffers are ruining her prospects through their selfish power grab designed strictly to settle personal scores and vendettas.

Plus, things aren’t exactly going according to plan here.

That outpouring of national support?
It has apparently generated less than $100,000. The anti-establishment types aren’t stepping up and proving their support of Erika here.

What about institutional support?
Not likely to emerge from the NRCC and similar groups, even should she make it to the general.

Painting the incumbent as “part of the problem” or “entrenched in Washington”?
No go. Doesn’t work with someone who hasn’t even been there one full term yet, like Davis.

Run for Lieutenant Governor?
Perhaps - if you don’t mind retracting all those statements about how deeply and sincerely you want to represent your home district.
Doing so might look a bit opportunistic and self-serving, however. Especially since this is already your second attempt at winning the nomination in this district.

Rely on the support of all those fellow Republicans she worked hard to help get elected over the years in Illinois?
There are none. She has done nothing to help raise money or elect other Republican candidates in Illinois since winning her crown.

I say above that this is “sad”, because both Davis and Harold could have been in office somewhere. Rather than burning resources fighting each other, they could have been focusing on their own elections in separate districts or separate levels of office - possibly even working together to get each other electing.

To borrow a phrase from the inimitable Oswego Willy and direct it towards those noble and selfless ex-Johnson staffers:

DOPES!

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 2:30 pm
Question: “Does anybody know how this district really swings?”

Answer: Dave Fako

Thanks Dave.

Comment by walkinfool Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 3:44 pm
===Thanks Dave. ===

Ditto.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 3:53 pm
===Question: “Does anybody know how this district really swings?”===

A ginger is somewhere in the district tapping his fingers together while muttering, “excellent”.

Comment by Under Influenced Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 4:38 pm
Great stuff by - Dave Faco -

Always learing here … always.

Champaign County was spoiled having a Congressman, that doesn’t mean the district is less served with Rodney Davis, serving the entire district, including Champaign County, and I am still confused as to why Erika feels the need to change the course Rodney is on, and further, if the course needs no changing, then how does Erika and the Ex-Staffers for Tim Johnson make a case of this not being about Ego and Hubris?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 4:50 pm
“As Willy suggests, perhaps visiting actual counties in the district outside of the ivy walls of Champaign might be in order.”

If you’re following the 13th or live there, you’ll have seen her outside Champaign County a ton. Open your eyes.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 7:30 pm
If Davis wins reelection in 2014, Andy Manar will beat him in the Presidential year of 2016!

Comment by Johnny Justice Tuesday, Sep 24, 13 @ 9:42 pm