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Rate Rauner’s three new TV ads

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* Bruce Rauner is running three new TV ads. The first one we’lll look at features a retired Chicago cop who blasts Gov. Quinn for his early release program…

* The second ad is about jobs…

* And the last ad we’ll look at in this post was spotted by Wordslinger last night. He wrote up a pretty witty, on-the-fly analysis…

Just spotted what I think is a new Rauner “mixed” ad.

Caught it out of the corner of my eye on Channel 5 in a watering hole, so not verbatim, but it goes a little something like this:

Opens with a visual of standard, dark scowling Quinn head shot.

Female VO: “Why is Pat Quinn (saying deceptive things, I think) about Bruce Rauner?”

Visual of Blago head enters the shot: “Because Pat Quinn and (insiders, maybe) have been screwing up the state (or something like that).”

(At this point, I started laughing, because I loved the unexpected “scewing up” line. That’s how people talk, and she said it with some moxy).

Then it cuts to Bruce in bright color and goes into a lot of issues and visuals and narration very quickly, I didn’t get it all in one viewing.

One of them was definitely a “responsible plan to raise the minimum wage,” followed by a couple of other things, then a closer of “Bruce Rauner is running for only one reason: to bring back Illinois” (but the visual said “shake up Springfield, take back Illinois).

First impression: Way too busy, too many things going on for :30 seconds. But I absolutely loved the “screwing up” line.

* The spot is called “Screwed Up”…

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:10 am

Comments

First Ad;

“B-, C+”

Why? It was pretty solid until the police sergeant said, “it’s time for people to ‘Wake up’…”

Not a good close line. What, are you “educating us”? Didn’t - VanillaMan - warn us all about looking down our nose at voters, and telling voters to “Wake up”, isn’t that telling the watcher they’re …”dumb”?

Old, white, angry, male…telling me…to wake up. Yikes.

“B-, C+”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:19 am
Second Ad;

“B-, C+”

Why? This should have ran well before the “Ford Ad” Quinn ran, because, while all in the Ad has significant justification, the positive Ford Ad really puts this Ad in a position to look at what Quinn is saying about unemployment, and, on the face numbers, Quinn is “right”, this Ad is outdated as it airs.

Makes a job case, just 60 days to late.

Good quality, liked the visuals, just 2 months late.

“B-, C+”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:25 am
The entire time I watched that first ad, I was thinking “John Burge.”

Ed Hanlon may be a great guy, but if you are trying to make in-roads in the African American community, this is not the way to do it.

There are not enough undecided votes in Chicago to make this ad a good choice, if it even increases turnout among black and Latino voters by a fraction.

I give it an ‘F’ for shooting themselves in the foot.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:28 am
I give the second ad an ‘A’.

Anytime you can use your opponent’s own words to reframe the debate, you are doing well.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:30 am
Third Ad;

“Solid B”

Why? If this was an intro Ad in April thus would be a “B+” Ad, but if you are still intro-ing yourself in this tenor, 5 weeks out, when and what do you “close” with in 28 days?

Absolutely love the “screwing up” line. Delicious. The picture of Quinn and Rod, powerful. However, here’s the “rub”; for over a year, we have seen the Blago-Quinn connection for a long, long time. Long time. Drinking the same water from the same well, not bringing anything new, and reinforcing what out there already.

This would have been great in April, even with the Carhartt…but 35 days out, it’s wasting money better spent on this specific Ad in April, May, even June…but still…

“Solid B”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:32 am
===The entire time I watched that first ad, I was thinking “John Burge.”

Ed Hanlon may be a great guy, but if you are trying to make in-roads in the African American community, this is not the way to do it.===

You are on to where this fails; Old, white, angry, male, and took it to a possible next level…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:35 am
Of the three, I think “Jobs” governor is clearly the best. Although the unemployment rate is at its lowest since the crash, anxiety about the economy is still widespread. Best shot at moving undecideds.

“Early Release” has the makings of a good spot, but i think I would have chosen a copper who didn’t look like Commander Burge’s twin brother. Plus, I don’t think you chide voters to “wake up.” Ask for the vote, don’t demand it.

“Screwed Up” is just too busy for ;30 seconds. I think you pick one topic and roll with it. i don’t know why he brings up pension investments at all. Is that his “George Bailey” moment. IF so, flesh it out in its own spot.

All in all, Rauner might be paying A-Team money, but I don’t think he’s getting top product.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:35 am
For anyone who’s paying attention, these ads seem desperate and dated. Rauner’s third ad, in particular is ridiculous, as he’s trying to refute the positions he took on being against having any minimum wage and being against raising it. He’s smart to try to highlight pension plans that he claims to have helped to offset the growing number of criminal cases that are cropping up against GTCR everywhere- the latest in Detroit.Does anyone trust Rauner with pensions?

AND - Michelle Obama just put out an excellent ad for Quinn, touting his support for veterans.

It looks like Rauner is trying to pivot to the positive and now his new message is “I’m so rich I can’t be bought and I won’t take a salary”.

First two ads - D Does anyone think that cop wasn’t paid to do the ad? The third ad - C Rauner’s message doesn’t resonate but at least it isn’t over the top negative.

Comment by my two cents Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:38 am
Rich, I know I am biased but your optimistic view of Rauner is noticeable. This guy is coming across as fake and people are seeing it. You can say a lot about Quinn, and I have, but the guy is not a fake. You are missing the boat my friend, momentum is with Quinn and while this hearing will not be a positive look for the Dems to drag this into a muddled mess.

Comment by Obamas Puppy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:39 am
The first ad is not very effective C-. The next two hit Quinn on the economy and the State’s horrible fiscal mess. Both B+, but still needs more defining himself.

Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:40 am
The “wake up” ad will reach and resonate in the collar counties, downstate, and with many professionals within the law enforcement communities and LE families state wide. Quinn’s early release debacle was treated in this ad with calm dignity. A-

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:44 am
Didn’t like the first ad… Incomplete. The second ad..A.. It uses what is true. PQ saying he is the jobs Governor. The facts say otherwise. That is solid stuff now. Run it all day long. The third ad plays into the undecideds and want a reason to not vote for the status quo. It’s an A as well. The fact that his motive is to change the way the state has done is the only reason the pay part comes in. Who doesn’t know he is wealthy? I see no point in it a detractor for an undecided. It will only help.

Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:44 am
Old white angry guy = Senior Citizen.
It’s a solid B
Jobs Governor = Those who are or have been laid off
It’s a B
The teachers and police good target but a little to late and wordy.
It’s a C mostly for timing

Comment by In the past Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:45 am
==Rich, I know I am biased but your optimistic view of Rauner is noticeable. ==

LoL, the only thing noticeable is the blue and red blinders on posters getting darker and more noticeable the closer the election gets. I’m not excusing myself from this, either, but to say Rich has somehow been easy on Rauner (implying bias)….wow

Comment by Anonymoiis Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:47 am
Hey Schrimpf: Three new messages in one day? Does this mean your candidate is “desperate?”

Only kidding.

Actually the early release one would have been better with a victim rather than a cop, and has a questionable target audience. It’s not a fail, but could be improved.

The other two are good. One about just getting rid of what isn’t working, the other about jobs. Both messages are right on for Rauner closers.

As Word has often said, if only Rauner could come up with one strong testimonial about how, as a businessman, he was a “job creator” and “company saver.”

Comment by walker Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:51 am
@Obamas Puppy- You are just flat wrong in your assessment.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:54 am
All of these ads just kind of… Stink.

I get the feeling that the bar is set so low for Rauner, and the message quality expectation is so abysmal, that people are giving him “B” and “A” ratings just because he didn’t create an internal crises with the ad.

Meanwhile, Quinn’s campaign has stepped it up with several great ads that will probably win him the day. Match up any of these ads with the disaster-relief ads we’ve been seing, and they barely breach a C-.

Comment by Irked Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:59 am
How to fix the Rauner “John Burge” Ad;

You start with a minority woman, in the same chair, same exact set up.

“Jane Smith, victims advocate ‘X’…”

“When I learned about the sneaky release of felons and other dangerous criminals that Pat Quinn allowed, my stomach crawled. I’ve been working for victims and their families for ‘X’ years, and I see every day how criminal acts can almost destroy victims and their families.

(Same flashing of statements as original Ad)

“All Pat Quinn did was put more people at risk, and put families in harms way, just like the families and victims I see every day.”

If you are going to go after the releases, make people sympathize with victims, not angry about felons.

…unless the target is old, angry, white, male, countering all the outreach Rauner is doing, then they are in their own.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:59 am
Based on the first ad, I assume Rauner will put a complete stop to the ’secret’ release program that the GA passed into law and is used by the courts.

Second ad OK. Seems like those Apple Superbowl ads from years ago.

Third ad - So he is now for raising the minimum wage. He can’t be bought but seems to flip-flop as needed, what the difference?

Comment by zatoichi Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:59 am
The “Jobs Governor” ad is terrific and should have been running all summer.

Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:03 am
Did I hear that right?

Did Rauner actually say that “he helped teachers invest?”

I sense a new narrative:

It is always about public service with that guy. The guy went into investing in order to help the poor. It had nothing to do with the fact that he makes $50 million a year. It was about teachers!

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:05 am
The Hanlon spot is not about independents. That one is about his base.

I genuinely think he’s worried about the right. There are a lot of them mumbling about staying home.

The Sgt. comes off like your average tea partier, The ad will have appeal to angry white males, but nobody else.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:09 am
I thought the jobs ad was very good.

It goes to the heart of the debate.

I give that one an A.

Notice also that the language seems to be getting more harsh in all these ads. “Failed” in this one. “Screwed up” in the other. The Sgt ad also had some language that seemed more harsh than you would expect.

These ads overall sound very angry. They sound a bit desperate. They are pleading with voters not to elect Rauner, but instead they are urgently against Quinn.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:12 am
I like the police sergeant one. I bet it plays well in the bungalow belt. Lots of folks in Chicago neighborhoods must feel anxious about crime and a trustowrthy and kindly looking old cop criticizing Quinn’s early release program will likely resonate with them.

Comment by Meanderthal Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:14 am
Friends–Seriously, how many people voting in this state even know who John Burge is? Along with most people here I get the issue, but also I think the inside baseball is getting to many of us when reviewing ads and gauging their effectiveness. One minute commenters here despair over low information voters– and then the next minute they suggest that they expect people in places like Lexington and Centralia to notice that Hanlon bears a slight resemblance to Burge? LOL.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:15 am
Retired cop ad: Would have been stronger with an African-American cop. C

Jobs Governor ad: I don’t think the average voter is sophisticated enough to understand the entire country was in a recession, and if a governor could buck that trend, he should be president, not governor. B

Screwed up: Affirms those already committed to Rauner. I doubt if it will make any converts. C

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:21 am
“You can say a lot about Quinn, and I have, but the guy is not a fake.”

Yep, he’s really upfront about how dishonest he is. A Grade-A, certified prevaricator.

Oh, that’s not what you meant?

Comment by Chris Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:24 am
Rauner needs to make his move now,
he took 6 weeks of a: 4 to 1 Quinn ad buys/plays over his, all Quinn incessant negative ads blasting Rauner,
yesterday Quinn up by only 2 %, however Quinn’s favorable dropped and especially with Women and Independents, they don’t like negative ads.

so like Mohammed Ali, is Rauner allowing Quinn to punch himself out of money and message? now he needs to do a pivot and come back punching hard and long through the remainder of the election!

summation, Quinn spent his load, message takes 3-5 weeks, and only a 2 point gain, today although down 2 % I would prefer to be team Rauner

Comment by fair & balanced Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:33 am
Now, I’m sensing a pattern here with ol’ Brucie.
If it’s a commercial, it’s Pat Quinn is bad, corrupt, etc.

if it’s a press conference, the questions were given to reporters to deflect Pat Quinn from his bad, corrupt ways.

This all kind of reminds me of that old Far Side cartoon about what a dog hears: blah, blah, blah …Fido…blah, blah, blah

Rauner: blah, blah, blah… Quinn bad, Quinn corrupt… Blah blah…Quinn bad, Quinn corrupt…blah blah blah.

Comment by Larry the Cable Guy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:34 am
Fair,

To be fair and balanced, I thought the polls had Quinn about 10 down.

So it is not a two point gain. It is a twelve point gain, and the hits are going to keep coming.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:35 am
That cop doesn’t look so kindly to me. Clearly, this is an attempt to target undecided African-American voters and send them flying into Quinn’s camp.

Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:38 am
==so like Mohammed Ali, is Rauner allowing Quinn to punch himself out of money and message? –

Ali’s rope-a-dope was a one-time, spur-of-the-moment tactic borne of desperation, not a planned strategy (Dundee was screaming at him to get off the ropes). There was no way Ali could trade blows round after round with Foreman, who was seven years younger and much stronger.

If we’re going with boxing analogies, I’d suggest that Rauner had the ways and means to land body blows on Quinn all summer long, but chose to mug it up and dance around the ring, instead.

Unforced error.

Now it’s toe-to-toe for month and the scorecards are even.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:07 am
Hey - Gooner - Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:35 am:

Yes you are correct in my lack of clarity, let me rephrase; after the 5 week sustained 4 to 1 negative ads blitzkrieg by Quinn camp, he is only up 2%. that is not a good thing for Quinn at this stage

Comment by fair & balanced Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:07 am
===Unforced error.

Now it’s toe-to-toe for month and the scorecards are even. ===

Hard to argue that point, as Rich referred to yesterday, its going to be “Bloodtober” was it???

Comment by fair & balanced Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:11 am
=== “responsible plan to raise the minimum wage” ===

Responsible plan? Raunervich hasn’t had a “responsible” plan for anything.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:28 am
PQ needs to focus more on jobs and less on his purple tie!!!

Comment by Jimmy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:35 am
Of the three ads I think that the second one, the one on jobs, is by far the best. The ad is focused on a major topic and sticks to it. I rate it a solid B for Rauner.

The third ad is to me the weakest of the group.

Comment by Hit or Miss Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:40 am
“He can’t be bought.”

That’s often how it works when you are the one doing the buying.

==- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 9:59 am:==

Willy, you are assuming Bruce Rauner has a binder full of minority women he can choose from to be in his ads. He probably didn’t have one because “they weren’t there.”

==- Meanderthal - Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:14 am:==

He looks of the opposite of trustworthy and kindly to me. Then again, I’m in the demographic that just isn’t “there” when Bruce Rauner is looking.

==- fair & balanced - Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:07 am:==

Try comprehending the numbers.

https://capitolfax.com/2014/09/25/todays-number-29228/

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 12:11 pm
Precinct Captain — Rauner is targeting me so heavily I expect to see his ads when I open my refrigerator. And that cop seems the opposite of trustworthy and kindly to me, too.

Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 12:49 pm
How does having a Chicago police officer play to Rauner’s base??

The GOP base believes EVERYTHING about Chicago and Cook County government is corrupt.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 2:00 pm
PC: “He looks of the opposite of trustworthy and kindly to me. Then again, I’m in the demographic that just isn’t “there” when Bruce Rauner is looking.”

He looks neither trustworthy nor kindly to me, either, and I am of the demographic group (on several planes) that Brucey *does* hire.

And the CPD angle makes it *much worse* from my viewpoint.

Comment by Chris Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 6:42 pm