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Some congressional take-aways

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Illinois

* Man, was this ever a thumping…

U.S. House District 12
100% of precincts reporting

Bost 106,435 (52.7%)

Enyart 84,136 (41.6%)

Bradshaw 11,47% (5.7%)

Eleven points?

Sheesh.

* And so was this…

U.S. House District 17
100% of precincts reporting

Bustos 108,228 (55.2%)

Schilling 88,004 (44.8%)

* Lots of mixed messages this year. Bustos wins, but her own state Sen. Mike Jacobs loses. And yet Rep. Mike Smiddy, who represents half of Jacobs’ district, wins.

I think what we can take away is that the candidate mattered this year much more than the party, or the incumbency factor or even the district (Smiddy’s district leans Republican) or etc. Enyart, Schilling and Jacobs just all got out-worked, out-thought, out-messaged, out-everything.

* One more…

U.S. House District 10
100% of precincts reporting

Dold 93,036 (51.8%)

Schneider 86,572 (48.2%)

Schneider’s campaign trumpeted his Democratic Party affiliation - in a Republican year.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:36 am

Comments

Ragin’ Mike Bost by a landslide? Really? I’ve always been a big defender of Southern Illinois. But sheesh, there really are a lot of hillbillies down there.

Comment by too obvious Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:39 am
In the Bost race it really was as Rich described. Mike Bost simply outworked Enyart.

Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:40 am
He won Southern Illinois. He also got a plurality in St. Clair County…which really isn’t “Southern” Illinois.

Comment by DuPage Expat Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:41 am
Agree on Schneider. His partisan message was pretty much all he was selling.

And Bustos is very impressive. She built a very solid campaign.

Comment by John Kamis Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:43 am
Schneider accused Dold of positions he didn’t hold. In other words, he lied and then kept repeating the lie. The voters caught him and it cost him his job. Good for them. When the liars lose, everyone else wins.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:43 am
Just drove past a yard with both a Quinn and Schneider sign, and it became quite clear: bad year for green signs. Simple as that.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:47 am
I was fairly surprised when Schilling won in 2010. I will admit that I do not know too much about the district, before or after the remap except that it was reliably Democratic under Lane Evans. Schilling probably caught a break running against Hare in 2010.

Comment by Under Further Review Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:55 am
I feel badly for Brad, but I saw this coming a few weeks ago.

He can come back, but he needed better staff and guidance than what he got.

Bost winning - not a shock.

Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 10:57 am
Quick note on Schneider.

Waukegan turnout 2014 - 22498

Waukegan turnout 2014 - 13285

Brad carried Waukegan by a wide margin in 2012. The margins were wide again yesterday, there just weren’t enough votes…

Comment by I'm New Here Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:00 am
I think Rauner hire Dillard to teach him how to work the legislature, but what do I know?

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:01 am
= U.S. House District 12 =

When does Junior send out the media advisory?

Comment by Dirty Red Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:01 am
EDIT - Waukegan turnout 2012 - 13285

Comment by I'm New Here Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:02 am
===Bost winning - not a shock.===

His win wasn’t a shock. His margin was.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:02 am
The Bost win not surprising at all. Dems helped Bost by running the tirade video endlessly. It made oat a folk hero.

The good folks in Southen Illinois simply do not care what the enlightened crowd north of I-80 thinks. They really don’t. They have every right to send one of their own to Congress. The current Congressman a little too button down for the Saluki types. The President plays extraordinarily poorly there as well.

Comment by Searchingfortruth Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:05 am
Schilling never got any real national money. Given the enormous amount money being thrown around, that was kind of surprising.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:09 am
Bost, if he plays his cards right, can be the next “Joe Walsh” for national Fox News.

Why not go for it? His underdog fightin’ image is what he’s got to offer.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:12 am
The moment I saw that rug ad, I knew Schneider was politically blind to anyone worth less than a million. I don’t personally know him, but couldn’t someone have slapped him and dragged him to a Wal-Mart to show him that money doesn’t trump truth? If I worked for him, I would have forced him to spend a week as a Wal-Mart greeter so he could discover his arrogance. That ad lost him votes.

Schilling couldn’t catch lighting in his pizza box twice. He was perfect in 2010, running against old fat mustachioed Phil Hare. Against Bustos, Schilling’s winning 2010 style came off as retro, Brill-creamed, and a bit off. Bustos was a mess, as well as an exposed proven liar, but Bobby was too aggressive and couldn’t find a way around that district’s liberal slant.

Bost is another Schilling.

Dold and Davis are the real deals. While Dold gets the Chicago market attention, Rodney Davis destroyed his primary and general election opponents. Neither is an amateur player, or a lucky one. Both men showed they can spin a winning image in a balanced congressional district.

Kinzinger and Schock are ready for their close-ups in 2016. Both are attractive packaged GQ guys and Kinzinger has military shine over Aaron’s “Alex P. Keaton - Doogie Howser” image. Both men are to be watched.

So if the GOP is interested in new faces for statewide campaigns - they don’t have to rely on Tom Cross, Jim Oberweis, Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady anymore. There is a new generation of GOP players who don’t know what it means to be stuck in the minority and eating Chicago’s dust. There is a new attitude and a new century for them to promote in our state.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:13 am
I was honestly confused at the D10 race. Youhave commercials painting Dol(d) as one thing by BS, then you’d have Dold saying almost the complete opposite (social issues mostly). I then listened closer and it was always Dold and the Republicans did this. I then saw the Bloomberg donated to Dold.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:16 am
Mama, wrong thread but I suspect Rauner thinks he can do it on his own.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:17 am
One not mentioned was the 13th. The fact that Rodney Davis has taken a district mapped for Democrats, and made it his by such a large margin, tells me a lot. Young guy, moderate voting record, wins big in a tough district….the man’s got a good future

Comment by Anonymoiis Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:28 am
Wonder how many of these will just flip right back in a presidential year.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:35 am
Bost wins again in 2016. Madigan came after him repeatedly early on his IL House career to no avail.

Turns out hard work endears Bost to his constituents. That won’t change. Bost speaks their language. An everyman in a region that feels slighted and forgotten. A good fit.

Comment by Searchingfortruth Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:49 am
When does Jerry Jr announce his race against Bost?

Comment by Ronco Nagurski Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:51 am
The map was a significant player here. Congressional Democrats wanted to regain the House through Illinois, so they made a bold play to pick up five seats, eliminating six Republican seats in the process. That meant spreading their voters rather thin, particularly downstate. Then they had to rely on Obama’s reelection year to set up incumbent defenses this year.

They could have drawn a map designed to pick up only three or four seats and been solid for a decade. Instead there are now a net of two pick ups to show for their control of the map.

Comment by muon Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:21 pm
muon makes a very valid point.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:22 pm
@Ronco

If Costello didn’t want the seat when it would have been handed to him on a platter, why do you think he’ll jump in when he has to fight an incumbent for it? I’d bet he stays in-state.

Comment by Peter Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:26 pm
Bost’s landslide just proves what a terrible candidate Jason Plummer is.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:30 pm
Jacobs’ ground game was substantially larger than Bustos and Smiddy combined and carried Smiddy across the finish line I have been told. Looks like all of Jacobs baggage just caught up to him causing him to underperform compared to Bustos.

Comment by Citizen Carl Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:37 pm
@to obvious==But sheesh, there really are a lot of hillbillies down there.==
Either you are confusing southern Illinois with Kentucky, or you have never traveled south of I-80! Bost will represent the area well.

Comment by Rusty618 Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:05 pm
===They could have drawn a map designed to pick up only three or four seats and been solid for a decade.===

I think had Costello’s retirement been known during the process, that map would’ve probably been drawn differently. The 12th District appears to have remained essentially the same to appease Costello and then his departure created a ripple effect on what could’ve been stronger districts to the north, especially the 13th.

Comment by on the other hand Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:38 pm
===had Costello’s retirement been known during the process, that map would’ve probably been drawn differently===

Yep. It’s a Jerry Costello district more than it is a Democratic district.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:40 pm
Rich: Does that district ownership pass to Jerry Jr? Peter: running Jerry Jr in 12 would have been risky while he has the name pedigree just over a year in the GA would have been a tough sell. Hence the big defeat by Plummer. Could have the St Clair Dems held back to put JR up against Bost in 16?

Comment by Ronco Nagurski Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:46 pm
Why does Dupage Expat think St.Clair county is not in southern Illinois?

Comment by southwest Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:57 pm
=== The moment I saw that rug ad, I knew Schneider was politically blind to anyone worth less than a million. . . . That ad lost him votes.

Agreed.

On the positive side, the ad with Dold’s pregnant obstetrician sister talking about Dold being pro-choice was golden.

Comment by Urban Girl Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 2:46 pm
Too Obvious: seriously?!

People confuse stability with winnability. Jerry Costello was a rock. He went everywhere, did everything and had his fingers on every pulse. He personally gave/secured for John Shimkus the super-favorable and red 15th.

Jason Plummer was, is and will be a terrible candidate until he runs for something more local and then hones his ability. I knew he was in trouble the second Bill Enyart was named a candidate for that seat in 2012.

Bost was the right guy at the right time. The areas in Madison and St. Clair Counties that run blue in presidential years are not reliable blue areas in gubernatorial years. The area of St. Clair County outside of East St. Louis is purple and can be red when the right person (like Mike Bost or Katherine Ruocco) runs. Last night a Republican was elected countywide in St. Clair County. Tom Holbrook survived by the skin of his teeth. Ms. Ruocco dominated James Clayborne in the non-East St. Louis parts of St. Clair County. So the Bost win was not only not surprising but, given that he remained competitive in Madison County and won the non-East St. Louis part of St. Clair County, I am not surprised that he won so decisively.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 2:53 pm
Vanilla Man -

I think Bost has staying power. He has the experience and savvy to win in a tough year or lose in 2016 and bounce back in 2018. One major difference between Bobby Schilling and Mike Bost: Bost has been around long enough that he has built a network and helped out plenty of candidates and officials who know how and when to return the favor.

I really, really wish one of Congressional stars had run for Senate this time around. 2016 will be a tough year statewide. I know a lot of people think Senator Durbin is unbeatable, but I really believe that he could have lost if a truly formidable and fully NRSC-backed candidate would have pulled the trigger.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 3:14 pm
Bustos wins a 17th District packed with the highest Democratic Performance expectations in 50 years, while the rest of downstate is much less Democratic and not so fortunate. We now one Democratic Congressmen for the first time in at least the last 60 years, perhaps since the Civil War when the two party systems began in earnest. Even during the Civil War Era Downstate Democrats held 3-to-7 seats. Two Democratic Congressmen resigned to serve in the Union Army and two Democrats were elected to replace them.

Comment by Bill Edley Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 4:22 pm
@under-further-review. Let me enlighten you about the Rock Island based 17th District. In 1982, Lane Evans’ first election, he won it with 53% in a District Reagan carried in 1980 with 57%. The next election in 1984, Reagan won with 54% and Evans won again with 57% and by 1990 Evans won this very Republican District with 67%. He never had a “safe” Democratic District, not even close to the currently democratically drawn 17th Cook rated D+ 7. Yet, Evans was one of the most progressive Democrats in Congress and never underperformed the District’s Democratic expectations. He served for 24 years and retired only because of health reasons.
The District Schilling won in 2010 ran all the way down the Mississippi River to Quincy and then snaked through Springfield to Decatur. Cook rated it D+3. The current 17th drops out all the Quincy/Springfield/Decatur and picks up the 64% D Peoria and Rockford voters. It was drawn for a Rock Island Democrat to win and Bustos, after pushing Peoria Sen. Koehler out of the primary, won it but underperformed the D performance with 53% winning tally.
Some of those Peoria D’s could have gone to the 13th which Republican Davis won in 2012 by less than 1,500 votes and as these maps are fluid, made some of the other downstate district’s more Democratic. The result in 2014 is that Downstate Democrats for the first time, perhaps ever, have one Democratic Congressperson, a “No Labels” Congresswoman.
One more point. Evans gave back $15,000 a year from his salary for 24 years and didn’t take a federal pension.

Comment by Bill Edley Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 5:14 pm
It would not surprise me if Schneider recaptures the 10th District U.S. House seat in 2016, which is a presidential election year.

Comment by bookworm Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 5:17 pm
Bost’s landslide just proves what a terrible candidate Jason Plummer is.

Yes, 2012 was such a good year for all the other Republicans. I don’t know how Plummer blew it while Biggert, Dold, Schilling, and Walsh did just fine.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 5:29 pm
Anonymous, Plummer was a bad candidate. Period.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 5:32 pm
Re: Jason Plummer as a candidate - running adolescents for adult positions because daddy has a couple of bucks is now, and will always be offensive. Smells just as bad when ordered in either red or blue.

Comment by Searchingfortruth Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 6:23 pm
On several occasions on this site I explained in great detail how and why the Schneider ads were not congruent with the make-up of the 10th district. I also explained that this is an independent minded district that picks and chooses to support policies from among both the R and D national positions– and that Schneider running as a shrill and partisan Democrat, especially this cycle, was just insane here. All I got for my trouble was people from outside the district telling me the the tenth was solid blue and that Dold held positions that clearly he did not. Whatever. I am kind of glad Schneider and his staff didn’t listen to me and my free advice, though.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 9:37 pm
Schilling was the better candidate, but brought a varsity team to play professionals, this accompanied by a lackluster fundraising performance, and pay to play allegiance swaps in the financial backers contributed heavily to his loss.

Comment by Oracle Thursday, Nov 6, 14 @ 10:10 am