Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Rauner approval rating drops 11 points in a month

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* The Illinois Policy Institute commissioned a statewide poll and reported this result via e-mail…

Gov. Bruce Rauner job approval: 41.2 percent approval, 35.6 percent disapproval and 23.3 unsure

They haven’t posted this online yet, as far as I can tell, and no crosstabs were provided.

But, wow, man. A 41 percent approval rating after only a month in office?

The Policy Institute didn’t say when the poll was conducted, but did disclose this…

According to the pollster [Odgen & Fry], 36.8 percent of respondents self-identified as independent, while 34.5 percent of Illinoisans polled self-identified as Democrats while 28.7 percent self-identified as Republicans. The poll surveyed 481 people with a margin of error at 4.56 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

Odgen & Fry conducted a poll on February 11th which found Rauner’s approval at 43 percent, with 28.2 percent disapproving. That poll was of 908 voters, so its MoE was much lower. A poll conducted by We Ask America on January 14th had Rauner’s approval rating at 52 percent, with just 23 percent disapproving.

So, either the two February polls are wrong, or Rauner is already disappointing his constituents.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:53 am

Comments

Kind of weird to do polling already, isn’t it? What’s to be gained from the information? He hasn’t done anything yet but talk.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:56 am
Well he did say he was going to disappoint us in his first two years right? At least he’s keeping that campaign promise in check.

Comment by PMcP Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:56 am
The honeymoon should have at least lasted until the budget address. This was the easy part.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:57 am
Rauner’s drop in popularity could really hurt his money buddy Rahm on the 24th!

Comment by William j Kelly Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:58 am
“It’s Baloney.

I can tell you the Silent Majority of people not polled, or not answering polls, are with Us. ‘We’ are fundamentally changing government, and those not paying attention, or the ‘corruptors’, including ‘career politicians’ and ‘corrupt Union Bosses’ never met someone who has never lost at anything, been successful ‘Our’ whole lives, and can drop a ‘g’ faster than you can say droppin’.

‘We’ will save the rest of you. I’m right. Exactly right.”

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 9:58 am
Yeah, give Rauner 5 weeks and give Obama 6+ years. Seems fair.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:02 am
“He hasn’t done anything yet but talk”. And the talk has only been to threaten the livelihood of a group of taxpaying Illinois citizens who serve our state. But they are just at the top of the list.

Comment by Anthony Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:03 am
I agree with Wordslinger. The Governor was just elected. His budget hasnt even been released. People voted for change, and thats exactly what he’s been talking about. Changing labor laws, changing provider rates, changing medicaid eligibility, changing funding to municipalities, changing the rules of taxing one’s property, etc… I feel like Illinois is sick, and getting very afraid of the shots that await while in the car on the way to the doctor. Its too soon to have buyers remorse. The Governor deserves a chance!! Illinois elected him, now we must give him a chance to turn things around!

Comment by Slip Kid Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:03 am
anon and others, don’t be such victims. Seriously. It’s unbecoming.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:07 am
It makes perfect sense to poll approval ratings early, as a benchmark or baseline to compare with over time.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:08 am
@Anon,

“Yeah, give Rauner 5 weeks and give Obama 6+ years. Seems fair.”

1. IPI is pretty much in Rauners’ back pocket. So if they are commissioning a poll, most likely it was to try to bolster his recent activities. I’m willing to bet they misread the tea leaves and thought his popularity was on an upswing.

2. Obama was getting polled from the minute he took office. Have you been living under a rock? And what exactly does that have to do with Rauner?

Comment by How Ironic Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:08 am
Sorry. Anon 10:08 was me.

Comment by Ray del Camino Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:09 am
This is probably more about staking out *any* position at all rather than the specific positions he’s taken.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:09 am
“Such is the power of the Chicago Tribune.” — someone in the Trib editorial boardroom.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:09 am
The recent headlines are all about services at risk, not about lower taxes.

Keeping the tax rate where it was would have helped Rauner politically.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:10 am
Slip Kid, I sure didn’t sign on to all that, lol. I was just curious about the purpose of early polling.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:13 am
We are heading for a very steep cliff. I don’t like a lot of what he is doing, but we have two options, keep heading for the cliff, or make a dramatic turn.

If you really hate this guy, calm down and brace yourselves, it is going to get much worse before it gets better.

He is a smart guy and he knows that if people’s lives are going to be better in 4 years, the change has to be now and has to be dramatic.

If he keeps us on the Quinn track, he was done in 4 years anyway. His only shot is all in now and he knows it.

Comment by the Patriot Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:24 am
If the residents of Illinois actually want the state’s massive problems solved, then they’re going to have to be “disappointed.” They aren’t going to be able to have it both ways. They can choose structural changes that will produce significant pain, or they can embrace “tinker around the edges” policies, happy talk, and a managed decline. This is the only real choice available after years and years of poor financial decisions and profound neglect. The opportunity for milder policy changes has long since passed.

Comment by Illannoyed Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:25 am
He’s been governor for barely six weeks and someone’s trying to make hay out of a poll on his so-called job performance?

Oh, brother.

Someone commissioned this poll. You’ve got to ask yourself if they are trying to shape opinion with it or measure opinion (or both).

Follow the money…

It’s probably too much to ask from caterwauls to at least give the guy until the end of the spring session before whining that the sky is falling, right?

John

Comment by John Boch Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:26 am
===If he keeps us on the Quinn track, he was done in 4 years anyway. His only shot is all in now and he knows it.===

Rauner beat Quinn.

It was in all the papers.

Governing ain’t running against the guy you just beat.

Lots of Rauner’s choices so far aren’t about the governing, but about retaliation, and about policy dictated against state workers, not about trying to fix what ails the state.

Unless you think state workers ail the state, then you are missing the Thompson lessons.

Other than that…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:29 am
“Someone commissioned this poll.”

Uh, yeah, it was the IPI. They don’t have much incentive to make him look unpopular.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:30 am
Wait until the budget address. If what I’m hearing is accurate, Rauner should drop at least another 10 in short order…

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:34 am
@ John Boch

“It’s probably too much to ask from caterwauls to at least give the guy until the end of the spring session before whining that the sky is falling, right?”

The poll is from the IPI. Did you even read this? 3 of their staffers recently joined the administration. Do you think they are trying to sink ‘their’ guy?

Please.

Comment by How Ironic Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:40 am
I don’t think anyone who had high hopes for the new governor thought his so-called style of “leadership” would start off bullying some of the citizens of the state. And those citizens happen to work for the state. It seems so little of him. Where are the plans to actually DO something other than harass workers? Is he aware that he was elected to SERVE the citizens of this state? Is he aware that he is in a sense, OUR employee? Wow, I’m sure that would send him on a tirade to have to think of his service in that light. People want leadership, not harassment. DO something to improve the lives of the people. All of them.

Comment by AnonymousOne Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:44 am
I think most folks are seeing this as the opposite of working together to find solutions. Most citizens know that the state needs some drastic work unfortunately the only thing we hear from Rauner are the opposite of fixes. Even if you agree with him coming out of the gate on the Union thing is not going to help. It’s hard to get your neighbor to loan you his lawnmower when he keeps catching you peeing over his fence.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:52 am
I don’t trust numbers from the IPI without verifying their accuracy. If they release information this bad I can only imagine how low the ratings must really be.

Comment by Past the Rule of 85 Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:53 am
I agree with Oswego Willy. Rauner won. Quinn lost. This was about more than the people, and more about the voters choice for the direction of the state. Voters decided that governor quinn’s policies were failin the state. Medicaid too generous; labor unions too strong; state employees overpaid, and property taxes too high. Its too soon to judge governor rauner’s performance. Its gonna get worse before it gets better. If you’re feelin uneasy, thats good Change is gonna make us better, but it wont be easy.

Comment by Slip Kid Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:55 am
I wouldn’t be too worried if I was team Rauner, he’s not upside down and the disapproval isn’t too high.

He’s the governor who has inherited a huge budget problem in a state that is hard to govern. It’s not going to be parades of ponies and roses.

Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:56 am
More than anything, this poll seems to be a reflection of our instant gratification society.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:00 am
I think the big number and the correct answer in that poll is unsure. People don’t know how he is doing because he hasn’t delivered a budget address and has only been in the job for a month. 41 may sound bad, but if his unfavorables are at or stay at 35 he would be very happy.

Comment by kj Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:02 am
Oh golly, I was so hoping everyone could just get along. Yeah, right.

The man want be popular if he does his job. His objective isn’t to win votes, now, but to straighten out the incredible mess our finances are in today. Hope he succeeds in cleaning things up a bit, and if he does he won’t be popular…. because the cure will affect us all.

Comment by Sunshine Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:06 am
It’s so hard to believe that people who sent a guy they didn’t know to the governor’s mansion would be disappointed when all he does is act like a petty jerk. BIG SURPRISE!

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:08 am
- Slip Kid -

First - Wordslinger -, now me…

I know I didn’t sign on that I thought voters universally voted to…

=== Voters decided that governor quinn’s policies were failin the state. Medicaid too generous; labor unions too strong; state employees overpaid, and property taxes too high===

The point you seemed to miss while dragging me into your simplistic views of the voting public’s concurrence is that running against Quinn now, that’s not useful in governing now.

If you “agree” with me, understand what you’re reading first.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:12 am
Seems weird for anybody to be polling on this if it really is about “the next generation not the next election.” And showing up at a screening of Selma on Lincoln’s birthday to talk about Civil Rights? It is like they are running Bill Clinton’s playbook.

Comment by Elijah Snow Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:14 am
No surprise here. Rauner was elected to make the tough choices that would gore a lot of oxes, and that’s exactly what he’s doing. About 45% of the voters wanted to keep going off the cliff with Quinn, and it’s surprising that only 35.6% of those are disapproving of him at this point. About 23% aren’t sure how this will work out, which is the sensible position at this stage. The 41% approving far exceed the “GOP base” in Illinois, so that number is optimistically high at this point.

It’s going to go lower. There won’t be photo ops with the Guv cutting ribbons or giving away freebies anytime soon, and there WILL be projects cancelled, people laid off, and raises denied, even in union negotiations.

Raising taxes would just be enabling real reform of the Springfield culture from happening for another year or two. The culture is the problem, and he’s taking action to get that changed.

Rauner has the toughest elected job in the country. If he can get Illinois on the right course to responsible spending and finance, he’d have to go down as the greatest Governor in Illinois history. The state’s never been in such deep doo-doo as it is today….

Comment by Arizona Bob Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:26 am
Except, Rauner thinks unpopularity is a plus. So, who is he trying to impress?

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:33 am
“Voters decided that… labor unions too strong; state employees overpaid”

I bet the 40% of union households who voted for Rauner didn’t think that.

C’mon, Quinn’s the guy who tried to take away their pensions. Can we at least pretend that we understand that the situation isn’t all 1s and 2s?

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:38 am
John Boch, you’re really onto something. IPI commissioned a poll to squeeze Rauner for his anti-union rhetoric

Or, more accurately, maybe you’re on something.

As far as “follow the money,” Rauner contributed more than half a million to IPI and is loading them up on the state payroll.

You might want to loosen that tin-foil hat. Cutting off circulation, apparently..

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:43 am
“His objective isn’t to win votes, now, but to straighten out the incredible mess our finances are in today.” I can agree with that. Now, how does an illegal EO and Union busting help accomplish that?

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:45 am
==If he can get Illinois on the right course to responsible spending and finance, he’d have to go down as the greatest Governor in Illinois history.== I believe this is the expectation and nobody underestimates the challenge. But he hasn’t said or done anything to date that suggests he has a plan for doing this. In fact he seems more intent on engaging in union warfare than anything. Maybe he’ll connect the dot when he reveals his budget plan. But I’m doubtful. Nothing that he’s done so far suggests that he’s making the “tough choices” as you call them.

Comment by pundent Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:45 am
As OW likes to say, “elections have consequences.”

That’s not the same as saying “people voted for change.”

Getting elected with 50.27 percent of the vote and with fewer people voting in 2014 than in 2010, neither suggests a mandate nor a ‘vote for change.’

Without detailing how he proposed to fix the state’s budget woes while simultaneously promising to increase school funding and freezing property taxes, it is was just enough to be seen as Raunerclaus. Given the lower turnout, it was as much or more likely a referendum on Quinn.

Elections have consequences for sure-and here they come. A vote for change-nah.

Comment by Tommydanger Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 11:54 am
==35.6 percent disapproval==

==34.5 percent of Illinoisans polled self-identified as Democrats==

Sounds about right. @Wordslinger nails it here - there is little use in polling less than a month into the job for any politician.

There is a reason they did not provide those useless crosstabs. We already know what they say. Republicans still like him, Democrats do not, and most of the ==unsure== are the remaining Independents who do not fall into the ==approve== category. Sheesh.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:01 pm
===As OW likes to say, “elections have consequences.”

That’s not the same as saying “people voted for change.”===

Yep. Thanks, - Tommydanger -.

The consequences are the result, no matter the intent. You can also vote for change and have much different consequences than what you deem as change.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:08 pm
@FKA,

“Sounds about right. @Wordslinger nails it here - there is little use in polling less than a month into the job for any politician.”

Agreed, so why would the IPI, who’s in Rauner’s back pocket even bother? It’s not like they are out to damage him, so I’m thinking they were misguided (again) and thought Rauner would be seen as a ‘liberator’ in his conquest of the unions and state workers.

Comment by How Ironic Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:09 pm
Would all those who complain “polling too early” have the same complaint if Rauner was up 11%?

Comment by a drop in Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:11 pm
People say they want change. Usually what they mean by change is what benefits them and punishes those that are deemed not worthy. Well, change effects all, and will always come with unintended consequences. The voters of this state favored a self-proclaimed salesman. He made no bones about it. Now the change we so desperately clamored for is here, and we don’t like it.

Comment by efudd Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:16 pm
People apparently voted for change, just like they voted Obama in for that “change”, but the problem is, no one knew what the change was going to be because it was all to be revealed AFTER the election was won. Kinda like picking the mystery wrapped present because it looks good but probably has mud inside.

Comment by AnonymousOne Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:17 pm
He hasn’t hit bottom yet.

I expect it is around 35 percent.

Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:19 pm
@How Ironic

Asking myself the same thing. None of the explanations are perfect.

I like your theory best. They polled seeking to build support for a tough slog and make the case for some ==coat tails== legislators could ride in their talking points and votes soon after the budget address.

But then why release the poll results to anyone when you see those numbers come in?

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:31 pm
It seems like a lot of people are forgetting how Quinn was viewed as one of the most, if not the most, ineffective governors in Illinois’ modern history. Quinn’s incompetency paved the way for many gullible voters to support Rauner’s rhetoric about “shaking up Springfield” that was seemingly directed at the haggling politicians. For the good, common people of Illinois, Rauner promised to wave his magic wand and lower taxes, increase spending on schools, and maintain all the important services provided by the state. Utopia! Except … there’s one huge problem. The math doesn’t work!

Comment by forwhatitsworth Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Haters are gonna hate…stay the course, Governor. You are certainly on the side of Illinois taxpayers. And change is in the air…

Comment by Black Ivy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 12:57 pm
“Victims are gonna keep being victims”…LOL

- Black Ivy -, if you aren’t claiming Rauner is a victim and/or just cheerleading, you should add Raunerbot talking points just for comedy sake.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 1:03 pm
Let’s blow some of the smoke away on this one. Rauner spends more time on the road instead of in his office. Blago started off like that. I think he has over played his hand. He talks like a reformer but acts like a some of the people he critizes. His act has gotten old fast. He should learn to button it up.. His budget address ought be really entertaining.

Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 1:17 pm
“You are certainly on the side of Illinois taxpayers.”

Well, 43% of them, anyway.

While this poll is “useless” in that it doesn’t tell us who anyone’s going to vote for in 2018, it is useful information to have. Legislators will pay attention to this while deciding their votes.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 1:44 pm
Dopes are gonna derp.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 2:20 pm
Approval rating will likely bottom around 27%

Comment by Ace Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 2:25 pm
==- John Boch - Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 10:26 am:==

You know plenty about whining.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 2:29 pm
where is all those REPUBLICAN state workers ho vote for him now. This is one state worker ho is Republican that didn’t vote for him and is wateing for the recall to start. SORRY STATE WORKS YOU CHOSE HIM NOT ME

Comment by quincy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:09 pm
quincy, please learn to write a coherent sentence and unlock your caps or go away.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:12 pm
Some of these posts indicate why we really do need public opinion polls.

There is some projection taking place, about what the Illinois people “really wanted” in November 2014, and how Rauner is now delivering on it.

In truth the “mass public” rarely votes decisively -for- anything … 2014 was a rejection of Quinn, no question. That created an opening space for Rauner to propose an alternate agenda, and as some have pointed out, it’s waaay too early to put much stock in polls. Arguably the definition of political leadership is to take positions initially unpopular with voters, that the voters later come around on (see, Obama, auto bailout).

Still, there’s no harm in polling early, and some utility, especially if anyone really had fooled himself into believing that the Illinois public was enthusiastically -waiting- for a full-on assault on state workers, and would cheer on any candidate who did so.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:34 pm
Polls on his job approval will be useful when he has been governor for more than a month.

The reason it is useless so soon after an election is because it merely shows the natural settling of opinion. Also known as the honeymoon coming to an end. That is all it really can show at this point.

Job approval polls taken next week, after his budget speech, would tell legislators and Mr Rauner more useful information than those prior polls combined. Job approval polls taken next month, after negotiations start gearing up and being made public, would be even more useful.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:36 pm
@ZC well said. This poll does have utility as a reminder. The honeymoon eventually ends.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:42 pm
You poll now so you know whether, after the budget address, his approval has gone up or down. If you didn’t have a “before” picture, you wouldn’t have an “after” comparison. (Not that I trust the IPI).

Comment by Ray del Camino Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 3:58 pm
The Governor is obviously not a card player. He has shown too much of his hand already. Maybe voters have lost respect for the guy and this early in his term, that’s not good.

Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 4:15 pm
Arizona Bob:

What was your favorite culture-changing move so far?

The Chief of Staff for his wife at $100K a year?

The no-bid $30,000 a month salary for his CFO?

Or the Bruce Rauner “Friends and Family” Jobs Program?

Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 5:23 pm
“You People” elect some bad Governors. Was Quinn unpopular because he didn’t try to wreck things and hurt people?

Comment by jknell Tuesday, Feb 17, 15 @ 8:37 pm
Ok. It’s not those who have or have had the power/authority and position to create the state’s financial fiasco and bequeathed such a shameful reputation, that are going to be affected by the “tough” choices and changes that Rauner has ALREADY PROPOSED. Are people just pretending they don’t realize that or sincere in their ignorance? Come on. This crap is not avant-garde. And who’s going to throw the most hysterical tantrums? Certainly not those who traditionally bear the brunt of these political hunger games.

Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 9, 15 @ 3:20 pm