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Polls

* This poll will probably get a lot of media play because of who sponsored it, but check out the highlighted dates on this thing…

Governor Bruce Rauner’s job approval rating stands at 36.5 percent as he begins his term in office, according to a new poll of registered Illinois voters by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

There were 31.4 percent who either strongly or somewhat disapproved and 23.1 percent who had no opinion about the newly-elected Republican chief executive.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was taken Feb. 28 to March 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. […]

Rauner saw his highest job approval ratings Downstate, where 43.3 percent either approved or somewhat approved and only 26.7 percent disapproved or somewhat disapproved. In the Chicago suburbs, 34.6 percent approved and 32.2 percent disapproved of his performance.
Rauner’s lowest level of support was in Chicago, where 36.5 disapproved and 31.0 percent approved.

Partisanship is also strongly evident in Rauner’s job approvals. He enjoys the approval of 60.6 percent of Republicans, with only 10.3 percent who disapprove or somewhat disapprove. This is followed by 36.7 percent of Independents who approve and 32.7 percent who disapprove or somewhat disapprove. There are 46.1 percent of Democrats who disapprove or somewhat disapprove while only 24.2 percent approve or somewhat approve of the governor’s job performance so far.

February 28? That’s three weeks ago. And they spent 11 days on it? And then they sat on the results for ten more days?

Sheesh.

What, do they have an intern manually dialing an antique rotary phone while tabulating results on note cards or something?

Anyway, if this is accurate, the governor’s approval rating is already in Pat Quinn territory.

* And Illinoisans may not be feeling Rauner’s “turnaround” yet…

63.0 percent [said] that Illinois is going in the wrong direction and only 22.1 percent said we are going in the right direction.

* On to US Sen. Mark Kirk…

Kirk had a total of 44.5 percent who somewhat or strongly approved of the job he is doing, while 21.3 percent either somewhat or strongly disapproved of the job he is doing. These totals meant that Senator Kirk enjoys a net job approval rate of 23.2 percent.

Kirk’s highest approval ratings were in central city Chicago where 48 percent either approved or somewhat approved of the job he is doing, followed closely by 47.0 percent in the Chicago suburbs and 38.0 percent Downstate.

Most (53.1 percent) of Kirk’s fellow Republicans either approved or somewhat approved of the job he is doing with 16.4 percent who disapproved or somewhat approved. They were followed by 44.9 percent of Independents who approved or somewhat disapproved with 23.1 percent who disapproved or somewhat disapproved. Among Democrats, 40.5 percent approved or somewhat approved while 24.0 percent disapproved or somewhat disapproved of the job he is doing.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:07 am

Comments

Dude….like did you ever hear of spring break? Weekends? TGIF? HUMP DAY? Do you think this posse can be worked for 24-7?
Wonder if BVR will be offended that shake ‘em up Bruce Bucks were used to paint this scene?

Comment by anonin' Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:12 am
They always (or, at least, often) do these really long polling windows. I don’t get it.

I remember they did something very similar last year - maybe on a Rauner/Quinn poll?

Comment by AlabamaShake Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:13 am
Didn’t the PSPI have a similarly long-open-and-long-held poll during the election that showed Rauner with a lead?

At any rate, 36.5% isn’t really that different from 40%, besides the pyschological catch of dropping into the dirty thirties. Given the other polling data we’ve seen, this really isn’t a shocking number.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:13 am
I think those are actually solid numbers for Kirk. 40% of Dems approving is pretty healthy.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:14 am
I am nowhere near an expert, but I am surprised by Kirk’s approval rating. I am not surprised that it is pretty positive. What is interesting to me is that the approval numbers downstate are signifigantly lower than those in the Chicagoland area. I figured it would be the reverse.

Comment by Guzzlepot Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:15 am
Although I suppose a 48% approval rating in Chicago is rather illusory. He’s not going to get near that on Election Day.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:16 am
Kirk doesn’t really set the barn on fire with Republicans, does he?

I imagine that explains his solid numbers with Indys and Dems.

Classic positioning for successful GOP statewide candidates.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:18 am
Kirk has to be happy with these numbers and it has to give the three reps pause. At least it should.

Comment by Niles Township Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:18 am
===What, do they have an intern manually dialing an antique rotary phone while tabulating results on note cards or something?===

Thank heaven’s you have a readership who know what the hell you’re referring to here! lol

Comment by A guy Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:18 am
Maybe that $20 million would be better spent, instead of destroying the ILGOP GA, on trying to learn how to govern within a divided government, and to find common ground.

Rauner is in serious political perception trouble.

Serious.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:18 am
“and it has to give the three reps pause”

It won’t, and that’s probably rational; Presidential-year turnout patterns and the #1 (or at least #1a) Dem target of the cycle? You’re not entirely off-base to look at Mark Kirk and see Norm Coleman or Tom Daschle.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:24 am
“Rauner is in serious political perception trouble.”

Yes- and if the legislators don’t fear opposing him*, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

*- But it all depends on what the 2 $20M funds and AFP do, that could still put the fear of god into some Legislators.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:26 am
Oswego Willy - What do you think the odds of that are compared to, say, Schock being found innocent by the feds, or snow in Carbondale in July?

Comment by AC Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:33 am
To the Post,

Attention ILGOP GA;

The “Rauner Cuts”. They’re yours. You will own them.

Everything “Rauner” is yours now.

The GA Dems, they will hang every cut, everything awful on you with those votes. Those bills will be signed by Rauner.

This will destroy you, just know that petition time. You lost your independence, but will you keep your seats?

Rauner cares nothing for you, ILGOP GA. Rauner threatens. Rauner threatens with $20 million and an approval rating below 40%. It’s breaking my heart.

- Arsenal -, at some point, even $20, even $40 million won’t save a cold-hearted governor.

It won’t save Sonny Corelone’s “buttons”… no matter how many time they’re “green”

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:38 am
- AC -,

Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty.

Snow in Carbondale is rare that time of year…as rare as the Feds losing any cases they take to trial.

Schock isn’t indicted yet, so snow is more likely. Today.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:45 am
“at some point, even $20, even $40 million won’t save a cold-hearted governor.”

Definitely true. I just don’t know where that point is. It may not be 36.5%!

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:48 am
Also,

A good “Governor”, politically savy and smart about off-year elections and politics would suggest to his party to “run against the Adminstration, I’ll try not to hurt you”

Rauner is demanding to BE accountable, and BE there to drive Rauner’s Agenda, no matter the consequences.

That’s how I know, Rauner doesn’t respect you, ILGOP GA.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 11:51 am
Rauner might say that his numbers are actually improving. Three days after this poll, his approval increased to 40% https://capitolfax.com/2015/03/18/rauners-approval-rating-drops-to-40-percent-disapproval-rises-to-37/

40% is no good, but the bigger point is that when you sit on numbers that long they start becoming gelatinous.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 12:27 pm
@AlabamaShake - they may believe it gives a more accurate read of public opinion. A short time period may be influenced by any spike in current events and skew the results. Spreading it over a number of days is more likely to reflect the baseline opinion, regardless of whether a major development broke at some point in the poll.

Just a theory, but I actually hope the undergrad intern roto-dialing scenario is the real truth. Those poor kids.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 12:38 pm
Also in the news today: Caterpillar (one of Rauner’s big supporters) is moving 2 production lines from Illinois to Mexico. We weren’t supposed to notice that with the Schock headlines. I thought the Godfather was going to bring jobs to Illinois?? He can’t even convince his supporters to stay in Illinois?? What’s up with that??

Comment by Outsider Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 1:22 pm
If Rauner’s number get any lower, he’d strip and then flip his own administration.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 1:32 pm
Doug Oberhelman, Chairman & CEO of Caterpillar is on Rauner’s transition team - and he is laying off 770 jobs and moving 2 production lines to Mexico!! That is the story of the day - maybe the month.

Comment by Outsider Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 1:57 pm
How does that compare with Quinn’s numbers? At first blush his numbers don’t seem so bad. As to wrecking the ILGOP with his $20 million? The ILGOP GA would chase a dollar onto the Eisenhower at rush hour, so whatever befalls them it’s their doing. Watching Rauner make them wear collars and leashes is different, and kind of fun.

Comment by Toure's Latte Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 2:33 pm
“How does that compare with Quinn’s numbers?”

Approval is very similar, but Quinn’s disapproves were usually much higher.

“At first blush his numbers don’t seem so bad.”

I dunno, man. I guess it depends on what numbers you believe, but under 40% approval two months in is lousy.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 3:07 pm
@Toure’s Latte - In April 09, after moving up for Blago, Quinn was the most popular gov in a decade with 61% approval https://capitolfax.com/2009/04/21/quinn-the-popular-for-now/

By September 2010, Quinn was at 24% approve, 60% disapprove https://capitolfax.com/2010/09/30/ppp-brady-up-by-seven-topinka-ahead-by-20-and-rutherford-up-by-8/

Quinn spent a lot of his time in the middle 20’s to low 40’s, with most of it around the low middle 30’s iirc

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Mar 20, 15 @ 3:11 pm