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Seals goes up * Updated x1 *

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The piece doesn’t say how big this ad buy is, but it is running on network TV.

Democrat Dan Seals will begin airing a television ad Monday tying Republican Rep. Mark Kirkâ€™s votes in Congress to support President Bush.

Sealsâ€™ ad suggests Kirkâ€™s support of Bush by reeling off several of the presidentâ€™s plans that Kirk supported â€” including the war in Iraq.

â€œWe deserve a leader that will stand with us, not with President Bush,â€ Seals, of Wilmette, says at the end.

In response, Kirkâ€™s spokesman says that heâ€™ll just be focusing on local issues.

The ad will mark the first foray into television in the 10th Congressional District race, though Kirk has been running radio spots for more than a month.

The full ad can be seen here.

Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has endorsed both Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth.

Watch it and discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Animal Farm has the fundraising numbers:

6th District: Republican Peter Roskam raised $570,000 for a total of $2.36 million so far, with $1.5 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrat Tammy Duckworth raised $949,000 for a total of $2.8 million so far, but had only $206,000 left as of Sept. 30. That probably explains why Duckworth went off broadcast TV recently.

*8th District: Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean raised $630,000 for a total of $3.5 million so far, with $324,000 left as of Sept. 30. Republican challenger David McSweeney raised $455,000 for a total of $1.6 million raised so far, with $688,000 left as of Sept. 30. […]

*10th District: Republican Rep. Mark Kirk collected $482,000 for a total of $2.7 million so far, leaving him with $1.6 million on Sept. 30. Democratic challenger Dan Seals raised $474,000 in the third quarter for a total of $1.2 million so far and had $559,000 left as of Sept. 30.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:24 am

Comments

“Meanwhile, the Daily Herald has endorsed both Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth.”

Rich,

How significant do you think the Herald endorsement of Maj. Duckworth is in the 6th Dist. race?

Your decision to note the DH endorsement in a single line at the end of a piece about Dan Seals makes me suspect that you don’t think it will play much of a role or am I reading too much into this?

Usually, I don’t give much thought to newspaper endorsements because I don’t think that they result in many, if any, additional votes, e.g. the Chicago Tribune (IL-R) endorsement of Peraica.

But in this case, I think that the DH endorsement of Duckworth might make a difference by telling moderate Republicans that it is okay 1) to vote for Maj. Duckworth, or 2) to stay home and not cast a vote against the Democratic candidate. Or maybe I found the DH endorsement pretty significant because I found it pretty surprising.

Your thoughts, Rich?

– SCAM

Comment by So-Called "Austin Mayor" Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:52 am
Good thing Kirk is going to focus on the local issues, his national votes are disastrous for his campaign.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 8:53 am
Most readers of this blog will pick up on the subtlety — but I’ll point it out anyway — on Seals website he claims polling data shows the race is tight.

“In head-to-head voting among voters who know both candidates, Seals leads Kirk 52 percent to 38 percent. Kirkâ€™s reelection margin has fallen to 44 percent, well below the 50 percent margin considered safe.”

“Among voters who know both candidates” should read — after asking the horse race question straight up we found we were dreadfully behind the incumbent. But after we read four or five positive questions about Seals and four or five negative questions about Kirk, we found we are ahead in the horse race question. All we need to do is get our message out and we’ll win.”

Seals must still be more than 5 points down since he didn’t reveal the true horse race number — the one they asked before “educating” the poll respondent. And, although these results are good for fundraising, with 20 some odd days left - if he’s not within single digits now - he ain’t gonna win. (Excluding live boy / dead girl scenario.)

Comment by Chicagograssroots Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:04 am
Good ad. Kirk focusing on local issues tells me he has no way to refute what the Seals ad says. Hope Seals campaign have the money for lots of air time.

Comment by Way Northsider Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:11 am
It’s a pretty good ad, but Seals looked a bit stiff and wooden.

Comment by ChicagoCynic Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:37 am
I’m rather skeptical about the midterms being a referendum on Bush’s record. Of course it makes sense to point out that Kirk is with Bush 91% of the time, but I have a feeling that particular figure doesn’t resonate with the electorate as a whole. When you have 30 seconds to reach out and grab the heart of a voter, spewing facts and figures ain’t gonna cut it.

The biggest problem with this ad is the lack of a narrative. Nobody cares about facts and figures. People like a story. People like to see candidates as human, as someone they can identify with. Look at Barack. He has always had a sizeable cache of compelling, heartfelt personal anecdotes on hand to stir a crowd.

I hope the Seals campaign runs purely positive ads the last week.

Comment by Bridget Dooley Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:47 am
I guess Duckworth and Bean wanted to get out early and often on TV. They both have less money than their opponents on hand. Great, now we get to see an annoying barrage of Roskam and McSweeney ads in Oct. which will be as bad as the barrage of Duckie and Bean ads that have aired up until now.

Comment by Wumpus DBA Charity Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 9:47 am
Broadcast is a waste of money unless its for issues, not candidates, especially in a major market like Chicago where any given 80% or so of broadcast viewers can’t vote for Duckworth, Bean, Seals or whoever.

Local cable is the way to go.

–

Anyone catch the broadcast Roskum ads (attacking Duckworth) that today’s Trib is saying are lies? If they’re the ones I think I saw it’s actually two ads: a Roskum ad and a NRCC ad. Both aired on WBBM-TV Ch. 2 10pm news Saturday night.

–

Bridget, citing that stat (Kirk has 91% rubber-stampitude) makes sense since a lot of Dems in the 10th still like Kirk because they think he’s a moderate. Once I tell folks that I’m canvassing for Seals because I don’t appreciate the right turn Kirk’s votes have taken in recent years their ears perk up and they want to know more.

Kirk is between a rock and a hard place. Hard-core conservatives (the Illinois Review brand of righty) don’t like him because he’s viewed as too moderate/liberal. And progressives in the know don’t like him because his actual voting record is much more conservative than he lets on.

For the big, public votes like veterans, environment, and stem cells that get play in the 10th (and Kirk’s media team helps to ensure they get play) Kirk is ok with his constituents — not great, but not horrible. It’s the stuff that gets far too little media attention where Kirk is off the charts compared to the 10th’s voters — the DeLay ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ vote, the torture vote, flip-flops on immigration, etc.

Comment by NW burbs Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:04 am
Seals-Kirk numbers…

New Seals-Kirk data from the Seals camp. Two things stick out–first, Seals’ problem is primarily one of name ID and thus the commercials going up are a big bit of what he needs to do. Second, Kirk’s job approval/favorability is……

Trackback by ArchPundit Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 10:14 am
The Herald endorsed Bean over Crane in ‘04. That and the Trib endorsement arguably spelled the difference in the Bean upset.

Duckworth is also in a close race, so I’d bet the Herald endorsing Duckworth (for Hyde’s district) will be significant.

Comment by ElaObserver Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:10 am
No one reads the Daily Herald, just ask Neil Steinberg.

Comment by ST Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:13 am
The only endorsement that mattered in the 04 Bean Crane race was the endorsement that Crane was never in the district and union members were out in force to support her. She ran a much better campaign than him, point blank.

Comment by Wumpus DBA Charity Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 11:48 am
The Seals ad misses the forest through the trees. The numbers, the actual numerical digits themselves, that everyone from la-la land wants to gloss over, came out in the News Sun. If you really want to see how lop-sided this race really is, they are up in summary format at

GOPulse.blogspot.com

Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 12:17 pm
Seals is a liberal.

Comment by Backyard Conservative Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 1:22 pm
I saw Kirk’s TV spot today. It is very good and makes him seem likeable. I’ve seen the Seals mailers tying Bush to Kirk and they are very good too, but in the end I think Kirk has enough money to spend on the warm-fuzzy tv spots to convince people he’s not George Bush.

Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:04 pm
Kirk is - what, a Republican? Ya wouldn’t know it from his web site. I’d try to back off that crashing trainwreck too, if I were he. Someone mentioned upthread that Kirk’s national votes will derail his campaign, but how can he hope to focus on local issues when he’s been an AWOL legislator for 6 years?
Cannot vote for him again. Just can’t.

Comment by northshore mama Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:18 pm
Northshore mama, (channeling Skeet) he is a member of the naval reserves, how dar eyou question anything he has done, said or thought!

Comment by Wumpus DBA Charity Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 2:50 pm
Contary to kneejerk liberal opinion, Kirk has a strong record on the environment, stronger than many Dem liberal icons, such as John Kerry and Hillary Clinton.

And while I disagree with his opposition to drilling in ANWR, he has helped clean up Lake Michigan, which is important to all of us.

I did a post on this today with more details and links, if you are interested in the record.

Comment by Backyard Conservative Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 3:23 pm
===ontary to kneejerk liberal opinion, Kirk has a strong record on the environment, stronger than many Dem liberal icons, such as John Kerry and Hillary Clinton.

Comparing vote scores across chambers is always problematic, but let’s grant it’s legitimate in this case.

Kerry 109th 89% 2006 71 2005 95 Lifetime 90
Clinton 109th 89% 2006 71 2005 95 Lifetime 90
Kirk 109th 53% 2006 75 2005 39 Lifetime 61

So yes, if you select one year he has a very high rating. His lifetime rating is decent for a Republican, but not fantastic and far lower than the others you mentioned.

It was especially cute to throw in Evans and Kennedy who missed many of the 2006 votes. It’s impressive that you were able to identify one Democrat who had a lower lifetime score in Murtha, who isn’t that liberal anyway.

Heckuva job!

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 4:41 pm
But then the 10th is a moderate district and has always valued independence, which this illustrates.

Comment by Backyard Conservative Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 5:17 pm
That doesn’t change the fundamental dishonesty of your argument.

Comment by Archpundit Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 5:32 pm
What Archpundit, you’re surprised a conservative is being dishonest in their argument?

LOL!

–

Wumpus, I thought military history was irrelevant to running for Congress. You conservatives are so confusing.

Comment by NW burbs Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 6:57 pm
The Elgin Courier ran a front-page story today on the Noland/Roth senate race. Noland is described as “pro-choice” and Roth as “anti-abortion.” Oh yes, Roth is also described as a smoker!

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/couriernews/news/98137,3_1_EL16_A1SENATE_S1.article

Comment by elginite.org Monday, Oct 16, 06 @ 7:19 pm
Has there been any mention here of the McLaughlin and Associates Poll showing Kirk up 57-32?

Comment by Establishment Republican Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:55 pm