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New poll has two races much closer than believed

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Polls

Constituent Dynamics has some fresh numbers for Illinois congressional races. You will recall that they already polled IL 6, 14 and 19 and came up with a few surprises.

These new results are a lot different than commonly believed. Melissa Bean is thought to have a larger lead than this, and Mark Kirk is believed by nobody to be below 50. Still, we’re looking at 1,000 respondents in these (automated) phone polls. Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-16.

* Bean-McSweeney, 47-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf] (They didn’t include the third candidate in the race.)

* Kirk-Seals, 46-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf]

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:16 pm

Comments

Kirk is the kind of weasel who ran on enlisted members being on food stamps and then didn’t do anything about it once elected.

Kirk is the kind of weasel who would stuff his pockets with Exelon money and then argue that keeping nuclear waste at Zion would make the waste more vulnerable to terrorism than it would be if it was being transported across the country from a few hundred sources to Nevada.

Kirk is the kind of weasel that when the interests of the DOD conflict with the communities he represents he takes the side of the federal gov’t.

Nobody believes Kirk is below 50%? Well I do because I’ve met him. He sold himself to the district as being a Republican like John Porter, a Republican with conscience who would buck party leadership.

But in reality Kirk is a pro-choice Republican hack looking to advance his career by ingratiating himself to the bosses.

If Kirk is polling below 50% it’s probably because the district is starting to catch on that he’s a fraud and he’s be deceiving his constituents from the beginning.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:31 pm
Please refresh my memory: wasn’t Sheurer pulling from both candidates in the last poll to include him? (And when was the last poll that included him…?)

I still don’t see how McSweeney pulls it off. Bean’s still got her GOTV from 2 and 4 years ago; it’s likely only gotten stronger w/ incumbency (cue conservatives grasping at straws about donut-eating union guys).

Seals… if the election were in another month maybe. This one will be close. We’ll have to see how his ads do for him.

I’m not surprised Kirk is that low. A lot of Republicans are upset with Washington which, lo and behold, is controlled by Republicans. And you can’t sit on your duff in DC and expect people to still be hunky-dory with you, esp. not in this environment.

Comment by NW burbs Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:39 pm
Not even Dan Seals’ own poll has Kirk below 50%.

Comment by Bob Choda Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:04 pm
NW Burbs, You are off, I believe it is Skeeter who always refers to the Donut eating union guys who didn’t help. Even as jaded as you two are, there is no way that he is conservative. Personally, I think it may be a wash. I am not sure if the union s are helping as much, but that may be offset by incumbancy. I think Scheurer may take some Iraq wa opponents from McSweeney and anti-aborters from Bean.

Question, does Seals live in the ninth? If so, this is so sickening. Bean lives in the 10th and won/is running in the 8th. Duckworth lives in the 8th and is running in the 6th. Seals lives in the 9th and runs in the 10th. I can understand one, but this is becoming an epidimic.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:18 pm
From what I hear from the Hastert campaign, Kirk’s hard reelect numbers were huge. I am not saying that this poll is wrong. I just don’t think Seals looks as good as this poll makes him look. Same thing with McSweeney. These numbers make him look better than he is. I would look at these polls in the context of the previous polls from this month.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:27 pm
Those 8th District numbers look off on the region (county) breakdown. Didn’t Bean top Crane by 10 points down there last time? Because this poll shows that being the center of McSweeney support, and I just don’t by Schaumburg coming out for him.

Comment by Anon '04 Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:45 pm
The numbers for the Republican incumbents could be even worse. Conservative groups aren’t happy with Shimkus (IL-19). From what I hear in So. IL, they’re discouraging Republican voters from voting for him.

A poll of Madison Co. only showed Shimkus & Stover at 43 - 43. Shimkus is toast, & he knows it.

Now if all of this positive change could help Dr. Gill get elected in IL-15, that would be great! Johnson’s such a stumbing fool.

Comment by Philosophe Forum Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:05 pm
Hey Wumpus, Bean lived in the 8th until Republicans wrote her out of the district. Duckworth lives in the 8th because she couldn’t find a house she liked and that was accesible for her in the 6th. Each of them lives within a mile of the district they are running in as far as I know. Wumpus, are you against anyone running in the 17th? I mean that district is so far over the place that how can someone really be from that area? I would say it’s better to have someone from Aurora run for Congress for a DuPage County district than for someone from the Quad Cities area represent people from Springfield.

As for Philosophe, Madison County is 43-43 for Shimkus? That’s nothing, Madison County is a Dem heartland. If Stover is running even in Madison he will lose.

Bean will win, Duckworth will win, Seals will win, and even Pavich will win. Hastert and Manzullo will be the closest thing Illinois has to a suburban Republican congressman for the next 2 years. Then Pavich and Seals will face tough races, but I think Duckworth and Bean will hold on for quite awhile.

Comment by Two things Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:58 pm
Carl Nyberg, (begin slow-clap here): Bravo. Ditto. Encore.

In his DC office, Kirk requested and currently displays Don Rumsfeld’s stand-up desk from his long-ago House days. In the 10th district, he wants to be John Porter’s protege, in DC he wants to be Don Rumsfeld’s protege.

I hope that 10th district voters will finally see through Kirk’s weasel-i-ness, once and for all. He’s a big part of the problem.

Comment by Trust Me Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 9:19 pm
The methodology of this poll is very suspect, and nobody in their right mind would believe that *both* Seals and McSweeney are currently this close in districts next door to each other.

This same poll also shows all kinds of wacky numbers from around the country with Democrats holding leads that are much wider than DCCC polling shows and in a place like CO 7, with the Republican actually ahead.

And for what it is worth, this poll, which showed Duckworth up 1 point over Roskam in August, now shows Roskam up by 1 point.

Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:38 pm
Sorry to burst everyone’s bubble but Mr. Math here will no debunk this poll. Rich–pay close attention and then spread to your colleagues.

Most polls are conducted based on “random sampling.” That is the most statistically sound way to survey a large universe. What is a sample, after all? It’s a small piece of the pie that’s supposed to represent the whole. To get this kind of picture, statistics teaches us you must collect a number of random samples from the whole–enough to meet a 95% confidence interval and produce a credible representation.

This polling company is NOT using random sampling (http://www.constituentdynamics.com
/mw/methodology). They are using something called “Quota Sampling”, which is a form of non-random sampling and is known to cause serious bias and error. Here’s a good website to learn more about non-random sampling: http://www.abs.gov.au/
websitedbs/D3310116.NSF
/4a255eef008309e44a255eef00
061e57/a9a3a3d8155170954a2
567ac002161a6!OpenDocument.

Comment by statistics major Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:51 pm
stats major, i think you’re reading too much into the methodology description. you have a point. still, your “aha” moment is a bit exaggerated.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 12:03 am
If the 10th district voters are finally getting the message that Kirk is not who is pretends to be I am delighted! He is totally two faced. Says one thing, does another. Hopefully it’s coming back to haunt him. He is Rumsfeld’s protege, not Porters.

Comment by Way Northsider Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 8:03 am