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* Erickson…
“As we move into fall, I think you’ll see some rank-and-file members calling for increased levels of discussions,” said state Rep. Dan Brady of Bloomington. “There are pressure points everywhere, from child care services to higher education.”
Brady, the ranking Republican on the House committee overseeing the budget for higher education, said the lack of a spending plan for the state’s universities is taking a toll.
Southern Illinois University, for example, recently announced a series of a program cuts designed to ensure the institution can continue operating into the new year.
Eastern Illinois University saved about $10 million through a series of cost-cutting measures enacted in the summer, including employee furloughs, attrition and reductions to athletic programs.
“We know that this cannot go on like this,” Brady said.
I have long been convinced that the real key to solving this impasse will be moderate Republican legislators who have been endorsed by unions. Those folks, like Rep. Brady’s ISU, often have government facilities in their districts. They don’t see unions as inherently evil. They generally prefer compromises.
So, if those moderates make common cause with Democrats who aren’t willing to bash unions, they could make a real difference.
* And then you have a handful of rich folks who don’t care what the governor might do to them…
“The governor needs to show he has the votes,” said [Barrington Republican state Rep. Dave McSweeney], adding, “And he can count me as a ‘yes’ vote.”
But if Rauner’s rabidly anti-union Turnaround Agenda fails to get the necessary 71 votes in the House?
“We still need a budget,” declared McSweeney. “We need to get this over with.”
* Even so, betting on a “mushroom revolt” is always a fool’s wager. As much as I like Rep. McSweeney (and I do), he doesn’t exactly have a huge following in his caucus. And what makes moderates like Rep. Brady so, um, moderate is their general aversion to fights to the death, particularly with their leaders, and particularly when their leaders have taken such a hard line…
Achieving a budget deal before 2016 looks to be a near impossibility. “Highly unlikely,” Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin tells POLITICO. The Illinois House only has two more session days scheduled for the remainder of 2015. Gov. Bruce Rauner and legislative leaders haven’t met since May. “At what point do they realize if they want to get through this they have to be willing to negotiate?”
Could be a while.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:12 am
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On what basis does Carol Marin think Rauner needs 71 votes? 60 would do to enact it , it just wouldn’t take effect until mid-2016. He doesn’t have to override his own veto…
Of course, those 60 votes (not to mention 30 in the Senate) may as well be on Neptune.
Comment by Harry Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:19 am
Meh, Rauner muscled every GOP legislator to oppose the K-12 approp., then stabbed every one of them in back by signing it,
If they didn’t flip after that…..
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:29 am
Rauner is willing to negotiate? I’ll believe that one when I see it.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:32 am
Brady speaks of “pressure points”, and that has relavance to all but those who do not/will not feel ‘pressure’. To the mighty few, tough guys don’t feel pressure. They apply pressure til they win. It’s all about winning
Comment by Back to Center Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:33 am
Rauner’s war chest, if left hanging over the heads of the mushrooms, will dampen any revolt.
Rauner is trying to beat the speaker, not negotiate with him. He is badly misreading his political mandate and poorly managing the legislative process.
If he isn’t careful his only “wins” he could have today (workers comp and property tax freeze) may be gone by year’s end.
He’s using the budget as a negotiating chip but wont follow through with any of the pain. It makes no sense, is horrific public policy, and its only achievement so far is to unite democrats.
Has no one on the 2nd floor any courage to tell him this? Or do they and he simply ignores it?
Either way is scary.
Comment by Abe the Babe Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:33 am
The process of coming to terms with the consequences of the tax cut and the corresponding budget deficit will get accelerated if we stop talking about “the budget impasse” and calling for “negotiation” and instead talk more about whether the lower tax rate is worth the job losses from the budget cuts. That’s what this is about.
I appreciate the Governor has said he is open to reversing the tax cut he essentially implemented, but that tax cut is the source of the problem. Not an impasse. Not a lack of meetings. And I think Rich is right: lots of GOP legislators don’t happen to share the Governor’s view that a tax cut is worth the job losses from budget cuts.
That’s a real, substantive important debate we should be having. Not calling legislators spineless or saying “figure it out.”
Comment by Dan Johnson Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:34 am
With exception of Sam McCann, none of the moderate GOP supported the union bill … so I don’t see a rebellion in the ranks any time soon.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:35 am
It could be a very long while.
Those moderate Republicans do have a general aversion to fights to the death, but they also have an aversion to undermining their first Governor in some time during his first year in office. Just as moderate Dems have an aversion to undermining their Speaker during the new Gov’s first year in office.
It seems they are already locked in that ==fight to the death==, and once your commander embroils you in it you have little choice but to follow orders or suffer the consequences of going AWOL or being strung up as a ==traitor==. The only ones who can truly disengage and stop the fight would seem to be the two megalomaniacal leaders who started and escalated this fight as a duo.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:37 am
==duo==
Madigan and Rauner are like the Batman and Robin of bad government.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:38 am
I am so discouraged. I wish JBT was still with us. She could have been a big help, as Rich has stated here in the past. Rauner is not wrong in principle that changes need to be made, but how he is trying to achieve those results is not right. The “all or nothing” stance by the governor is hurting Illinois and it matters not that the Democrats have mostly been responsible for creating the mess over the last 10 years. Go to the table Governor with things that CAN be accomplished with those that you have to work with. It is not weakness, it’s respect for those who have been elected.
Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:38 am
The Owls know…
The $20 million is there as a stick, not a reward.
If it was a reward, Durkin and Radogno would have it in their coffers already.
As for McSweeney, he’ll be “green” for a tax increase, and it will be a big one.
McSweeney knows it. McSweeney will be “green”. And that’s that. “Why?”
Can’t vote against the Raunerite Caucus then try later to try to be its leader.
“I said too much…”, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:39 am
== Madigan and Rauner are like the Batman and Robin of bad government. ==
Actually, it’s more like Batman and the Joker … except both of them think they are Batman.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:40 am
What’s the hard count on GOP legislators willing to vote “green” on gutting collective bargaining and prevailing wage?
The only “yes” vote some of this crew has ever made was tne sweeps for FY15. Raiding the cash register is hardly a heavy lift.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:41 am
The irony is that without a budget we are spending about 4B more then we are taking in. Gov. Rauner needs to understand that “turn around agendas” like he proposing, don’t happen with supermajority of Dems in the legislature. To use the budget as leverage to achieve what he can not achieve is just plain silly. We eventually need a budget, but we don’t need a “turn around agenda”. If you are going to use leverage, you have to make certain it is “real” leverage. The Gov. needs to propose a balanced budget with cuts and revenue and call on the legislative leader to meet with him to hammer out an agreement. He needs to concede that he fought the good fight and in doing so highlighted his agenda, but that it will have to wait until 2016 and call for elections to being him a more willing legislature.
Comment by Facts are Stubborn Things Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:47 am
So Durkin has just written off the next three months already?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:49 am
==Rauner is trying to beat the speaker, not negotiate with him.==
And vice-versa.
Oddly enough, Rauner has beaten Madigan more than once at his own game. From the GA pay increase to keeping government running much longer than anyone expected and the Dunkin Defection, Rauner has racked up multiple wins over Madigan.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:50 am
Change in the public sector is incremental. If the Governor is seeking reforms he has to be willing to accept the premise that Rome wasn’t built in a day. This is what happens when someone is elected without having held a public office - lack of understanding about the legislative process.
Comment by Stones Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:51 am
No GOP legislator is going to jump ship without prior approval. It’s very possible McCann got approval to jump knowing this bill would blow through the Senate with or without him. Has there been any word of a McCann primary? If not that is pretty telling. Rauner’s number one goal was to defeat the AFSCME bill for McCann to make that jump without approval surely would have brought a primary. Anyone circulating out there?
Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:52 am
HGF, Durkin has no say in the matter. He couldn’t raise bus money to get out of town if he bucked Rauner.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:54 am
Can someone please explain to me when it will convenient for GOP (and some Dem) legislators to vote on a tax increase? Now, while they are circulating petitions? In January while they are campaigning for the March primary? In March when they start campaigning for the November 2016 election?
I don’t see how moderate Republicans can make the case that dumping Governor Fund-Us-All’s agenda to help the majority party that has given them nothing over the years is a good strategy. In the end, the Governor is doing the polling, developing the message and readying the field operation on a scale that the GOP could never have imagined a year or two ago. He has the map against him, but he is asking them to trust him. Might fail, will most likely fail, but it’s bare knuckles politics and the GOP has never played it very well. So, he is asking them to stop being so queasy and take a Tums.
In sum, I guess I’m not seeing the rewards for a moderate revolt. And don’t try to convince me that no one needs a reward to take a risk.
Comment by Charlie Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:54 am
==Actually, it’s more like Batman and the Joker … except both of them think they are Batman.==
As usual, well said by @RNUG. Though I would suggest that they occasionally trade roles as ==Batman== and ==Joker== depending on the issue.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:56 am
===It’s very possible McCann got approval===
LOL
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:57 am
Bard -
Senator McCann does have a primary challenger who has been passing petitions. And not for nothing, but he’s an Assistant Sangamon County State’s Attorney. That office is so chock full of political types - including McCann’s primary opponent from 2012 - that I think there’s more than meets the eye in all of this.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:00 am
I’ve heard talk that the inevitable state income tax hike might be applied retroactively, either budget year (starting 7/1) or the calendar year.
If the state can’t get a budget through this year, don’t they lose the chance or retroactively apply the tax hike? and won’t that put us in an even bigger hole for the 2nd half of the budget year?
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:01 am
It appears some people do not know the definition of negotiate & compromise. Please notice that neither definition states ‘you have to agree to my way 100%’.
Definition of negotiate in English:
verb
1 [no object] Try to reach an agreement or compromise by discussion with others: his government’s willingness to negotiate
Definition of compromise in English:
noun
An agreement or a settlement of a dispute that is reached by each side making concessions: an ability to listen to two sides in a dispute, and devise a compromise acceptable to both.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:01 am
Most voters probably still aren’t paying much attention to state politics as a whole, but would they notice in a negative way if their income taxes go up again. Seems like the Democrats think so–they apparently have the votes to put a tax increase through on their own, sans the guv. They haven’t. And they may be right. The middle class is badly stretched, and Chicago/Cook are already planning to put through tax increases which will affect many Illinois residents. Would one more tax increase be one too many, from a political standpoint. Even in our heavily gerrymandered state. Apparently, the Dems don’t want to take the chance. Can they rely on a few Republicans to get them out of this. Maybe it would be better for the Dems if there were a few more Republicans to try and influence in a bipartisan direction. But when you are the dominant party in an essentially one-party state, you really do pay a price.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:03 am
==I have long been convinced that the real key to solving this impasse will be moderate Republican legislators who have been endorsed by unions.==
How big is this list of moderate Repubs? 5? 10?
And like -Charlie- asks at 9:54 AM, what would be the reward for revolting?
Comment by Roamin' Numeral Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:04 am
@formerly known as
Demanding a set of policies completely anathema to the other party before you will even TALK about the state’s budget is not negotiating. How can you not understand that? Why would the Dems go along? What’s to stop him next year?
It would be like if a Dem Gov were to demand to a GOP majority that he/she wont DISCUSS the budget until they hike the minimum wage to $12, increase business taxes, and make it easier for school systems to raise property taxes.
Would you call that negotiating?
Comment by Abe the Babe Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:05 am
==Has there been any word of a McCann primary?==
Oh, my word, yes. Hell, there was talk of it long before he took that vote.
Remember, this is a guy who openly flirted with a third-party run last year. He and Rauner aren’t coordinating.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:09 am
How many Republicans have said they are not running again? It seems that there might be some room for Republican support from them–although I know some may be looking for post legislature jobs from the administration.
Comment by Red eft Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:09 am
@Abe the Babe - as I say another thread
==The Governor has put his proposal forward, what is the Democrats counter?==
The counter offer was ==NO. NOTHING.==. To which Rauner’s revised offer was ==YES. ALL OF IT.==.
Like children negotiating over which ice cream flavor to order, when they could just order two different scoops in one cup.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:13 am
“Oddly enough, Rauner has beaten Madigan more than once at his own game. From the GA pay increase to keeping government running much longer than anyone expected and the Dunkin Defection, Rauner has racked up multiple wins over Madigan.”
It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:14 am
I would be really surprised if an income tax increase would be significantly retroactive, just
as I would be surprised if it is 5 percent or more. If there is concerned about the electorate’s reaction, seems as though a surcharge would be even more controversial.
I’ve said before, I see a lot of borrowing and fund sweeps up ahead.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:15 am
I love how irrelevant Durkin sounds (accurately) here. “Oh my, when are they going to get something done…?”
Don’t worry, Jimmy. The governor… OK, the governor’s staff… will let you know when it’s time to show up for the press conference announcing the deal.
Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:15 am
This is beyond tragic. I picked late October for a budget, but looks like it will be 2016. If I didn’t do my job for a day I would be fired, let alone 8 months.
Comment by pool boy Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:19 am
==what is the Democrats counter?==
What do you counter offer when someone demands your first born before they will even negotiate?
Even so, if my memory serves me, the Dems did give in to a property tax freeze and offered alternatives to Workers comp.
But I suppose those didn’t count because they didn’t also decimate unions?
Comment by Abe the Babe Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:24 am
++- Dan Johnson - Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 9:34 am:++ Dan, you made good points, but how do you negotiate with someone who does not care if state workers & others lose their jobs?
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:24 am
===The counter offer was ==NO. NOTHING.==. To which Rauner’s revised offer was ==YES. ALL OF IT.==.===
If you are only referring to the anti-union stuff, then yes. But if you are referring to corporate tax reform and a property tax freeze, you would be mistaken.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:25 am
==From the GA pay increase to keeping government running much longer than anyone expected and the Dunkin Defection==
Well, it’s not like Madigan was “against” the pay freeze; he called the vote on it, after all, and it’s not like that “victory” has any long term effects. Keeping the government open is kind of an own-goal, as it eliminates one of the crises Rauner said he needed to force through his anti-union fanfic. Dunkin is legit, at least to the extent that Madigan actually seriously wanted the policy, and not just to mend fences with the unions (plus, it seems to have made Rauner speak much more softly about negotiations).
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:25 am
Gee, Jim Durkin, thanks for your analysis. And how’s that endorsement of Walker for President going?
Comment by Eugene Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:37 am
So what about Dems in districts with very few or no state facilities?! Should they (theoretically) vote the opposite, then, of HGOP members who have facilities and workers in their districts?
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 10:43 am
This is not that complicated. There is no “meeting in the middle.” Rauner insists on getting something that his majority opponents can not and will not give.
Democrats have utterly failed to properly message this fight which is why the public thinks they are just disagreeing on the budget. Dems are winning the power war but not the message war, which is why the Gov’s polling (and my anecdotal evidence in talking to people) finds he still has public support. As long as the public thinks Rauner is just fighting over numbers with the guy that created the problem, he will win that public fight. It’s so utterly frustrating to watch.
Meantime, real people are really getting hurt…a lot.
Frankly, I just don’t know how this ends. I’ve thought perhaps the Gov just needs to save face with something, but he’s being so utterly intransigent that it’s hard to know.
UGH.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 11:23 am
==So what about Dems in districts with very few or no state facilities?! Should they (theoretically) vote the opposite, then, of HGOP members who have facilities and workers in their districts?==
Exactly! I’ve asked this very question before regarding how my district reps voted in the AFSCME vote last month. My district has a minority either consuming those state services or working for in that capacity, yet my reps voted along party lines, not in a way that represented their constituents.
It seems as though the expectations for fair representation differ.
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 11:33 am
With the proposal to entice ConAgra, we now see the bull…… Surrounding Rauners turnaround agenda. Nebraska=right to work.nebraska=23 spots below illinois in work comp rates. Nebraska=court litigation costs not even a blip on the radar. Taxes,taxes, taxes. Rauner even admits he will concede a rate hike,but he’s willing to GIVE massive tax credits as bait. This guy is a fool and Hypocrite.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 12:26 pm
McLean County Republican Chair, Chuck Erickson, is is of the extreme right. He would like to primary Dan Brady. Dan knows this - I wouldn’t expect a “Profiles of Courage” move from Dan.
Comment by Tyrone Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 12:45 pm
Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 12:26 pm:
“With the proposal to entice ConAgra, we now see the bull…… Surrounding Rauners turnaround agenda”
There is a Rickett family connection here, too.
http://www.omaha.com/money/aid-package-for-conagra-we-are-willing-to-work-with/article_a9ca667c-66dd-11e5-a5ba-dbc7cd244447.html
Makes you wonder about the Caption Contest picture with Kerry Woods the other day… (the middle finger of Rickett’s pointed toward the guv.)
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 1:22 pm
It’s a contest! Who can offer ConAgra the most kickbacks? If there’s one thing taxpayers should be opposing, it’s “economic development” initiatives like this.
Comment by Tournaround Agenda Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 1:45 pm
For the last couple of years, I was willing to pay a bit higher income tax(not property tax, that is a penalty to poor and middle class) if there are meaningful,well thought out cost saving cuts. Included in this, has to be a re formulation of promised pension benefits.whether negotiated or otherwise(we’re applicable). I will not,however, EVER support tax increases to support government giveaway programs. If our state tax policies are so far out of line, than they need changed so that everyone benefits, not just a few connected by political alliances.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 1:50 pm
We’ll see the reactions from the GOP Solons with universities when the money starts running out. In a normal environment, I’d say they’d help out the schools and their employees. In this big money age, I’m betting on the money man maintaining their allegiance. Even if they lose an election, a state job awaits.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 1:59 pm
Snucka makes a good point about Durkin’s irrelevance. I was struck by this:
“At what point do they realize if they want to get through this they have to be willing to negotiate?” - Durkin
Durkin is speaking about the legislative leaders in the third person. LOL
Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 2:12 pm
===Durkin is speaking about the legislative leaders in the third person===
He was talking about the Democrats.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 2:13 pm
Excuse me. I am wrong again. All this time I thought Rauner was a Republican. Come to find out he must be a Democrat who believes in higher taxes for govt give-away programs. My bad.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 2:38 pm
Elections have consequences and we have what we voted for - an incompetent “one issue” Governor who can not or will not negotiate and an equally unmovable Legislature that will not bow down and kiss his cowboy boots.
While this farce continues, our universities are suffering, our education system is failing, our elderly and poor, our museums, our conservation areas and many more are feeling the consequences of his “agenda”.
Will someone be the adult in the room and tell BVR that he is not the CEO of a private business venture, but the individual responsible for the livelihood and well being of millions of us who live in Illinois. And the Dems need to be willing to bend as well.
This madness has to end —– and the legislature us scheduled to be in session only 2 more days this year!!!!!!!!!!!
Is this really what we deserve? Maybe!
Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 4:19 pm
illini, what’s this “we” stuff? I knew better than to vote for Rauner. “We” have to live with the result, but my conscience is clear.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 4:28 pm
== has to be a re formulation of promised pension benefits ==
The IL SC has already taken that fantasy off the table for existing employees / retirees. And ‘Tier 2′ did reformulate it for new hires … so there is nothing left on that table.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 4:30 pm
Norseman - I was using the generic “we” not the personal “me” - please do not put me in that category and so is my conscience. Thanks
Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 4:57 pm
== I think you’ll see some rank-and-file members calling for increased levels of discussions ==
Wow. Here’s an innovative thought: “GO.DO.YOUR.JOBS.”
Comment by sal-says Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 4:59 pm
== I think you’ll see some rank-and-file members calling for increased levels of discussions ==
Wow. Here’s an innovative thought: “GO.DO.YOUR.JOBS.”
Ya’all might just remember that Doing Your Jobs is what the VOTERS who elected you are expecting.
Comment by sal-says Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 5:00 pm
RNUG- Chicago,CPS, and hundreds of municipalities,counties and school districts will eventually feel the pain. Not fair, but the state has no bullets left in its arsenal. With or without tax increases. Taxes raised today, will be given away tomorrow.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Sep 30, 15 @ 6:02 pm