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Daily Herald/ABC7 poll: 48-32-12 * Updated x1 *

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Even more so than with the Daily Herald’s congressional polling, all of these gubernatorial numbers are postively ancient, since the poll was conducted Oct. 16-22, according to the paper. In other words, they sat on these results for eight days and some of the numbers are over two weeks old.

The governor led Topinka by 16 percentage points, 48 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. And in a sign voters view this as the proverbial “None-of-the-Above” election, little-known Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 12 percent support, likely an unprecedented showing for a third-party candidate in Illinois. […]

In this campaign, though, women voters backed Blagojevich by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. And the governor led Topinka by 13 percentage points, 45-32 percent, in suburban Cook, and by 12 percentage points, 47-35 percent, in the DuPage, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Will collar counties.

That campaign is working, the poll shows. Asked to rate Topinka on a 1-10 scale, those surveyed rated her a 4.0 - lower than any statewide candidate this fall and even lower than President Bush, who rated a 4.2. Topinka was rated a 5.6 just two years earlier.

Blagojevich’s own rating stood at 4.6, dropping a full point from two years ago, a likely indication the seemingly endless stream of stories about corruption allegations in his administration is taking a toll.

*** UPDATE *** The Tribune/WGN poll isn’t on the Web yet, but I’m told the results are: 44-29-13

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:12 pm

Comments

In my own polling, which constitutes going door to door, I also have found that women do not like JBT and I really don’t think there is anything she can do about it. A very strange election. Every time a bad story comes out about Blago, JBT drops 2 points.

Comment by Garp Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:20 pm
I wish that the pollsters would do head to head matchups between Whitney and his opponents, like they do for for Blago and Topinka. I think that we would see some very interesting results.

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:38 pm
Rich, if the numbers are so ancient, why post them?

Comment by Little Egypt Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:39 pm
If Judy’s camp were smart they would get more air time with Joe Birkett in the next week. Put that man in front of the cameras — he’s far more likable than Judy and could help sway some of the undecideds and none-of-the-abovers.

Comment by HRH Weezer Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:42 pm
LE, ABC7 is the number one news station in Chicago. When they run these numbers, it’s news. Somebody has to point out the age of the numbers, however, and that’s what I did.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:43 pm
JBT is done. Now the thing to watch is how high will Whitney go? Can he reach 15 or 20 percent? Can he actually win a county? This could be the biggest story of the night.

Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:49 pm
The people I know would be indifferent between JBT and Blago,and would like to vote Blago out. Unfortunately the Quinn vs. Birkett angle makes JBT unelectable for moderates. She really shot herself in the foot with that choice.

Comment by NoGiftsPlease Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:52 pm
Why do the Chicago polls show higher numbers than other polls.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:06 pm
If you watched the interviews on ABC7 with some of the voters polled, you would see that their opinions are timeless. There was very little in their reasoning behind their vote that would suggest they would have changed their opinion over this past week.

Let’s face it, if the numbers were favorable for Topinka would there be any mention of the fact the poll was 8 days old. No. Of course not.

Comment by GOPGal Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:25 pm
SID, to paraphrase John Candy from the movie Plains, Trains, and Automobiles… “We would have a better chance playing pick-up sticks with our butt-cheeks” than Rich Whitney winning a county….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:29 pm
Research 2000 on Realclear ran 800lv from 10/23 to 10/26 and came up with 9+ for Blago and about the same timeline Survey came up with 10+.So if we are to beleive the Herald Blago has lost 6 to 7 points.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:48 pm
Is it too late for a write-in campaign for Jim Edgar?

Comment by elginite.org Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:15 pm
Now that Topinka’s on the defensive with the revelations about her pals Kjellander and Cellini, she’ll keep dropping. Judy fans should be careful what they wish for. Newer polls will show her doing even worse. Count on it.

Just 5 more points to drop by election day and she’ll be down to Alan Keyes’ 27%!

Comment by Real Clear Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:42 pm
Lovies, Illinois voters gave a county or two to Keyes and Blago lost several in the primary. I dont think it will happen either, but stranger things have happened.

Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:44 pm
I think Keyes won four, all in southeatern part of the state.

Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:59 pm
Real Clear…..JBT IS NOT buddies with Kjellander and Cellini. Yes, she did try to cut a deal to bring in some money for the hotel. The idea was hatched by Marty Kavorik (I believe he was her first Deputy Treasurer or something like that). The esteemed Mr. Jim Ryan put the kabosh on it for purely political reasons. In retrospect, it would have been a good deal. The money could have been invested 11 years ago. As it is, I don’t believe the state has received $0 and probably never will. The original hotel loan was OKed by Jim Thompson’s administration. Trust me on this….if JBT, Kjellander and Cellini were that great of friends the big money Republicans (50-60 year old white guys) would have dumped a ton of cash into her election. They were a no show. And it is what it is.

Comment by politicaljunkie Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:27 pm
Well, it’s not over til it’s over.

And voters are gonna do what they’re gonna do.

But if JBT loses, the next day Repubs should be planning for 2010. Because it’s going to be a really bad four years for the Dems. Investigations, big financial problems, chickens coming home.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:48 pm
Zogby has a new poll out that has the race 39-33. Even better, the poll wasn’t taken when Jesus was a kid (like the Daily Herald’s).

Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:58 pm
Must be another homerun for Topinka huh?

Comment by Confused Republican Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:31 pm
It is amazing that I travel the state from Cairo to dang near Cheeseland, and I have spoken to people and outside the city of Chicago, I can’t find hardly ANYONE who is voting for the Gov…..They are not happy with Judy, but they say she is better that what is in there??? Yet all the polls have her way down.

Comment by Where's the Leadership??? Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:51 pm
I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day. If only Jim Oberweis wouldn’t act so bitter and support Topinka and gover her tons of cash then it would be neck and neck because of all the ads she would eb airing. This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they don’t support each other.

Comment by JakeCP Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm
The latest Tribune/WGN poll has Topinka down 15.

Comment by GOPGal Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm
For some reason I think Topinka is going to win. I know that sounds ironic at this point.

Comment by JakeCP Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:09 pm
I read this earlier and then went out and had dinner, but I couldn’t get something out of my mind. So, I came back and re-read it.

This poll has the Governor leading JBT by 15%, and the Governor’s head-to-head at 44%. But, if I read it correctly, built into those numbers is a finding that the Governor will win women 2-1. He won’t. No matter the good or the bad, I can’t imagine him winning that cohort more than 60-40, which would be a total blowout, but it’s far from 2-1.

And, built into those numbers is a finding that he will win the collars by 12%, for all practical purposes the margin he is leading in suburban Cook. I may be completely out of touch, but I think he won’t win the collars by 12%. I can’t imagine a scenario much worse than approximately 50-50, and I suspect that JBT will carry the collars.

I have neither the time nor the willingness to do the math, but it appears to me that if you back out of the Governor’s numbers the overestimates among women and in the collars, and add those back into JBT’s, the head-to-head is probably pretty close in this poll.

Unless, of course, the poll understates the Governor’s lead in the city, in which case you would have to do the reverse math.

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:34 am
I have been pretty pleased with ABC7 Chicago.

This is unlike CBS2 Chicago, which has been blatently biased against Rich Whitney, explicitly REFUSING to include him in their “Straight 2 The Issues” segment, airing every day between now and election day.

Considering that the last Glengariff Group poll showed that 70% of Illinois voters want Whitney included, this is an incredibly BAD business decision by CBS2 Chicago; and it only demonstrates that they are out of sync with what their viewing audience wants. I will be doing my best to bring that message to their investors and advertisers.

Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:20 am
JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

Oberweis has urged voters to vote for Topinka.

Comment by Burbs Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 10:52 am
JakeCP wrote, “I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day.”

I have to concur with Jake. Maybe the kid will get some decent textbooks soon after all? lol

As far as, “This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they donâ€™t support each other.”

No, the Illinois GOP was left in an absolute shambles because Ryan was an absolute crook. This party needs to reform and rebuild into a viable party (aka one that can get candidates elected in what has generally been a blue state).

JBT was one of the few left standing after the Ryan fiasco, so if anyone is griping about their choices, just stop it, because you’re lucky to have someone with as much experience in state government as she does who was actually still left standing and untainted by investigations.

Rod had his shot at reform and has been a failure. The clear choice is a no-brainer come November, and if help is not forthcoming from JBT, then she, too, will be a one term governor. In fact, perhaps Illinois ought to just stick to one term governors so we can get any crooks who want to run locked up faster!

Best solution is to clone Fitz, of course, but that opens up an ethical can of worms. But one can dream.;-)

Comment by Angie Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 12:12 pm