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New numbers in 6 and 8 *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Oct 30, 2006

[Updated from last night and bumped up. Also, FYI, the Daily Herald will be releasing a new poll on the governor’s race at about six o’clock tonight. A new poll for the county board president’s race will be released at 10 pm. Check back for links if you can.]

One brief bit of caution: Some of these Daily Herald/ABC7 poll numbers are eleven days old because the 6th District poll was conducted Oct. 19-24 and the 8th District survey was taken Oct 18-24. The margin of error for both polls is 4 percentage points.

* First, the 6th District. The Tribune poll had this one at 43-39 for Roskam, Constitutent Dynamics reported it at 47-46 Roskam and Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan had the race 51-46 Duckworth.

The freshest numbers, according to pollster.com, come from Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal. The survey of 400 likely voters taken Oct. 23-24 had Duckworth ahead 44-43. But here’s the narrative from the Daily Herald on its poll:

In the 6th Congressional District race to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Hyde of Wood Dale, Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam led Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth 46 to 42 percent […]

Of Roskam’s 46 percent, 27 percent said they were strong supporters, with 19 percent less strong in their support. Duckworth had 28 percent say they were strong backers, with 14 percent less strong. […]

Only 36 percent of those surveyed thought the country was headed down the right path, with 54 percent saying it’s going in the wrong direction and 10 percent not sure. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote.

Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who opposes the war, is getting support from 66 percent of those who feel the country is on the wrong track. Roskam, running as the candidate of the party in control of the federal government, is backed by 22 percent of the wrong-direction voters.

* Now, the 8th. The Tribune poll had Bean with a 50-31-4 lead, Democratic pollster Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal had Bean up 49-33, but Constituent Dynamics had Bean with a far less commanding 47-44 lead, and was therefore roundly ignored.

The Daily Herald has the situation far worse for Bean, with the incumbent polling 8 points under 50 percent and the third party candidate eating up votes:

To the north, 8th District Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean of Barrington held a 42 percent to 39 percent lead over Republican investment banker David McSweeney of Barrington Hills [third party candidate Bill Scheurer is at 8 percent] […]

Although Bean hasn’t gone out of her way to bash Bush, she gets support from 62 percent of those polled who think the country is on the wrong track. Scheurer picks up 12 percent of those voters. […]

McSweeney captured only 68 percent support among those identifying themselves as strong Republicans and just 55 percent among those leaning Republican. That presents perhaps McSweeney’s biggest challenge. “If McSweeney can persuade and energize his natural base of Republican support, he will win the race,” Day said.

McSweeney’s support is based more along party lines: 22 percent saying they back him because they dislike Bean, with another 21 percent saying they back him because he’s a Republican. About 17 percent cited McSweeney’s issues, with an additional 9 percent specifying his opposition to abortion rights as the reason they’ll vote for him.

If this poll is right, and if those Republicans come home for McSweeney, this might be a major upset in the making.

*** UPDATE *** Duckworth’s last TV ad of the season is below.


- Posted by Rich Miller        

10 Comments
  1. - Citizen A - Sunday, Oct 29, 06 @ 11:21 pm:

    Rich, do any of the polls you see poll on the RB corruption backlash ? Intended as a serious question not a snide remark. Thanks


  2. - Larry Horse - Sunday, Oct 29, 06 @ 11:36 pm:

    So if Scheurer gets over 5%, does this new Moderate Party get an automatic berth in the next 8th district election, or how do these things work?


  3. - fedup dem - Sunday, Oct 29, 06 @ 11:37 pm:

    Both of these districts include portions of suburban Cook County where Tony Peraica should clobber “Toddler” Stroger in the County board Presidency race (at least in those areas). It will be interesting to see the impact of the double whammy (Blagojevich and Stroger) will have on Duckworth and Bean, both of whom would have otherwise have on the way to fairly easy victories.


  4. - bored now - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:08 am:

    federal races are at the top of the ballot.


  5. - Wumpus the Free - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:39 am:

    Fedup dem, so is Toddler Stroger going to have the Keyes(nian) effect on this race? Suburban Cook includes Schaumburg, where the race is supposed to be won/lost. You may have called the deciding factor in this. I disagree with an otherwise easy victory for Duckworth, but agree on other points you made.


  6. - Backyard Conservative - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:17 am:

    Dennis Byrne in his column today raises questions about the role Demnet is playing in the suburban elections, driving people in from Chicago and Evanston to canvass.


  7. - Lovie's Leather - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 1:55 pm:

    I can’t seem to figure out where in the world the 8th district is going. Some polls have it neck and neck, others have Bean clobbering McSweeney. Is this a reflection of bad polling? Or is it just errors in the system? Or are there a lot of undecideds switching back and forth??? I almost don’t know what to think….


  8. - markg8 - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 3:05 pm:

    Byrne doesn’t know whether he lives in Chicago as he says in his blog bio or the suburbs as he says in the article.

    Dems have a decided advantage in volunteers willing to give up what most likely will be the last nice days of the fall and even a Bear’s romp to come out and canvass and phonebank for their candidates. Most of the young people I’ve seen getting off those buses are students from Northwestern, U of Chi., Depaul and Loyola. Smart kids who know that Bush and the Republicans are mortgaging their future with their wasteful spending, disastrous war in Iraq and massive tax cuts for the top 1 percent.

    In the IL-06 Peter Roskam has so few canvassers and phonebankers I hear the Republican powers that be in DC flew out over 80 hill staffers this weekend to walk the district and call voters. I hope they’re not being payed by the federal government to electioneer. I also understand they don’t actually talk to voters one on one and ask for their votes. They simply doorhang literature. I guess their accents would give them away.

    I tried calling Roskam’s office last week to ask what he thinks of “occult promoting” Harry Potter books and before I had a chance to say more than hello I was put on hold by a harried staffer who evidently forgot about me. I hung up after 10 minutes. They’re not going to get many volunteers that way but evidently he doesn’t need them.

    The NRCC and the RNC are putting so much money into IL-06 they’re actually mailing packages about 7″ long x 3″ wide by about an inch high labeled “America’s start up kit”. Inside are just 3 pieces of attack literature with slander about Duckworth. That’s a lot of cash to fool people into looking at that junk.

    Another dirty little trick they’re using is right out of Rove’s playbook from the RNC in DC is robocalling with a recorded message that starts out, “I have some important information for you about Tammy Duckworth”. Most people hang up on robocalls and that intro is made to sound like a Duckworth call. If they listen to the full message they get an earful of Republican attacks on Duckworth. If they don’t they are redialed, sometimes immediately but always multiple times a day. One guy said he got 14 of these calls in one day. This is an attempt to block Duckworth’s phonebanking advantage. Numerous times voters have screamed in my ear “Quit calling me!”.

    Roskam knows he can turn out his anti-abortion and gun nut base. He also knows serious Dems won’t be dissuaded by these tactics. But if he can get independents to stay home, to say a pox on both their houses he can sneak in.


  9. - VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 3:06 pm:

    Last month, the Democrats peaked. When the polls started showing a rebound for the Republicans, they unleashed the Foley sex scandals. This gave the Democrats an terrific boost in the polls at a time when their “rout” lost steam.

    But they unleased the Foley scandal too soon. If they launched it as they had originally planned it this week, then they would be in the driver’s seat. But not anymore.

    Duckworth has peaked. Bean has peaked. The continuing damage from Stroger and Blagojevich continues, and voters are pretty cynical. There is little reason in Illinois to cheer the Democratic ticket right now.

    The Democrats need another October/November surprise to feed to a willing MSM. Perhaps they have it. Right now, we are seeing a slow ebb away from the gains they made last month.

    Bean still looks pretty good to keep her seat, but Duckworth’s challenge is fading. As expected.


  10. - markg8 - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 4:54 pm:

    Dems “launched” a scandal involving Republican congressional leaders protecting a Republican - and now what appears to be two more Republican congressmen - preying on Republican children sent by Republican parents to be pages under Republican leadership protection? What’s wrong with that picture?

    Everything. In matter of fact it was a Republican staffer who gave Brian Ross of ABC News the info.
    He did what the St. Petersburg FL and Miami papers
    and the FBI refused to do when they got wind of this and actually made a few phone calls to the kids and found the story to not only be true but got corroborating evidence. Now the House Ethics Committee has finished it’s investigation but refuses to release their findings for political purposes. Hmmmm.

    Vanillaman you’re wrong about Duckworth but don’t take my word for it. You’ll find out soon enough.


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