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Rauner upside down in some key districts

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* Politico…

Public Policy Polling was in the field for SEIU Health Care, looking specifically at five legislative districts where Republicans are incumbents. The surveys looked at Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approval numbers and asked about wages, policy issues and funding for child care. Remember SEIU Health Care is still in contract negotiations with the governor.

An accompanying memo reads: “Rauner’s approval numbers were upside down. Fifty-one percent of voters in the 99th District, where the State Capitol is located, said Rauner was doing a bad job, compared to 32% who said good. He notched similarly dismal numbers in two downstate districts and one Chicago area district. In a northern suburban district voters offered a split verdict, 40% good versus 37% bad, but expressed serious reservations about positions taken by the legislators.

“It’s not only the governor’s unpopularity that should be a cause of worry, but the lack of support for a number of his policies. In all of the districts, a majority of voters said they would be less likely to vote for a legislator who “opposed small wage increases for working poor Illinoisans who care for children, the elderly and persons with disabilities.” The question pertains to a stalled contract negotiation between the Rauner administration and SEIU Healthcare, the organization that represents those workers. Voters also did not look favorably on representatives who have stood behind the Rauner’s administrations cuts to childcare programs for lower-income working families, with a majority or near-majority in all districts saying it would make them less likely to vote for the member.”

As with the AFSCME bill, none of these results indicate that voters are truly up in arms about the policies.

I mean, check this out…

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sheri Jesiel if you knew she voted to cut $200 million in funding for services that help frail senior citizens stay independent and prevent them from going to nursing homes that cost taxpayers more, or would it not make a difference?

You word a question like that and still only get 44 percent “less likely”?

* Let’s go through the polls, starting with Rep. Mike McAuliffe…

How would you rate Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance: good, bad, or are you neutral?

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Rep. Michael McAuliffe, or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Michael McAuliffe if you knew he was supported by Governor Bruce Rauner, or would it not make a difference?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Michael McAuliffe if you knew he was supported by Donald Trump, or would it not make a difference?

When you’re as toxic to your incumbents as Donald Trump, there’s a problem. Just sayin…

* Rep. Sheri Jesiel…

How would you rate Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance: good, bad, or are you neutral?

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Representative Sheri Jesiel, or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sheri Jesiel if you knew she was supported by Governor Bruce Rauner, or would it not make a difference?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sheri Jesiel if you knew she was supported by Donald Trump, or would it not make a difference?

She’s not doing well. Anti-incumbent fever.

* Rep. Avery Bourne…

How would you rate Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance: good, bad, or are you neutral?

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Representative Avery Bourne, or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Avery Bourne if you knew she was supported by Governor Bruce Rauner, or would it not make a difference?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Avery Bourne if you knew she was supported by Donald Trump, or would it not make a difference?

Rauner won that district with 61 percent.

* Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez…

How would you rate Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance: good, bad, or are you neutral?

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Representative Sara Wojcicki Jimenez, or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sara Wojcicki Jimenez if you knew she was supported by Governor Bruce Rauner, or would it not make a difference?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sara Wojcicki Jimenez if you knew she was supported by Donald Trump, or would it not make a difference?

The governor is seriously upside down in that state employee-dominated district which he won with 58 percent.

* Rep. Terri Bryant…

How would you rate Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance: good, bad, or are you neutral?

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Representative Terri Bryant, or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Terri Bryant if you knew she was supported by Governor Bruce Rauner, or would it not make a difference?

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Terri Bryant if you knew she was supported by Donald Trump, or would it not make a difference?

Rauner won that one with 60 percent, yet he’s more of a drag than Trump.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:17 am

Comments

  1. AFSCME - you just got a road map, try to use it.

    Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:23 am

  2. In several of these districts, Trump support is actually a small positive relative to Rauner. Heh.

    Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:23 am

  3. –If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Representative Avery Bourne, or do you think it’s time for someone new?–

    Misleading question. Change it to “Would you vote for a democrat over avery bourne” and I’d be willing to bet the answer would be very different.

    Comment by DGD Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:24 am

  4. I have said Trump won’t matter much because Rauner is already a drag.He is bigger than I expected. That is more than enough to make up for Frank. I don’t think we will have a deal this is too tempting for Madigan.

    Comment by illinois manufacturer Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:26 am

  5. We’ll see if the folks vote accordingly. Especially after Rauner’s millions are spread around to try and convince people that up is down and vice versa.

    Comment by Norseman Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:26 am

  6. Bourne and Bryant are the most vulnerable, (of these 4, to be clear), Sara is only vulnerable if the larger case is made in the stronger GOP part of the district.

    McAuliffe? See: Rep. Franks or Sen. Sullivan. McAullife is 4th vulnerable on this list for a reason…

    Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:27 am

  7. I hear the printing presses humming as i type! Here comes the mail!

    Comment by They're There Their Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:27 am

  8. = Would you be more or less likely to vote for Representative Sheri Jesiel if you knew she voted to cut $200 million in funding for services that help frail senior citizens stay independent and prevent them from going to nursing homes that cost taxpayers more, or would it not make a difference?

    More likely 27%
    Less likely 44%
    Wouldn’t make a difference 22%
    Not sure 7%=

    Taking this question at face value, we’re going to shave $200 million off the budget, but in the long run it’ll cost taxpayers more and screw the elderly in the process. And 49% of the respondents either don’t care or would be in favor of that. An additional 7% can’t decide despite the clear choices. How sad is that?

    Comment by MSIX Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:28 am

  9. Are any of these University districts?

    Comment by illinois manufacturer Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:32 am

  10. - Norseman -

    The undercurrent of “Vote Accordingly” as a rallying (no pun intended) cry for Tomorrow and lots of lots of tomorrow’s until November will only be as strong as Labor, Social Service advocates and Democrats are willing to make it.

    Both you and - RNUG - see the map and a message… will those organizing May 18th see the playbook too?

    Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:32 am

  11. I hate to be a GOP voter and saying this….but I believe we need more Democrats in Illinois Government. The Illinois Republican Party is dying on the vine and there’s not much hope to save it.

    Comment by cgo75 Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:34 am

  12. Good thing that McAuliffe was able to clout his mother in law into a new state job before he goes down in Nov.

    Comment by nona Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:34 am

  13. These are not surprising results.

    Every day, people are realizing the duplicitousness of the governor.

    He says one thing, while his actions do the opposite.

    He phot-ops all around the state trying to portray a leave-it-to-beaver image. “Aww shucks guys, I’m just the governor.” He really thinks that IL citizens are that ignorant.

    Rauner is truly an embarrassment to this state. Even more so than MJM, which I would have thought to be impossible.

    November will not be kind to raunerites and republicans voting against their constiuents best interests.

    Comment by dominionhinny Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:35 am

  14. Weak sauce not to use the names of their opponents in the poll. The names are known, they will appear on the ballot. Add in party affiliation too, as DGD noted, and I’d take the results with fewer grains of salt.

    At the same time, it seems they’re under water enough to prompt labor to seriously consider putting its back into these races, which is part of the reason for pushing them to Politico. It’ll be interesting to see Jimenez challenged hard in particular. She doesn’t always react well when what she believes is her fundamental goodness is questioned.

    Comment by Marty Funkhouser Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:40 am

  15. November depends on how many people ignore the man behind the curtain. Expect lots of manufactured issues, such as Sara being an “advocate” of state workers because she wants to bring jobs back to Springfield, but don’t believe a word of it.

    Comment by AC Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:45 am

  16. Labor is trying to pressure some vulnerable House Republicans into voting against the Governor’s wishes but Republican fundraising in the non-Rauner division has been so anemic that they’re stuck between two tough choices, 1) taking bad votes hurting their re-elect or 2) voting against the Governor yet still being tied to an unpopular Governor but without his financial support.

    Aside from Rauner the Republicans have just not raised money in any meaningful way and it’s too late to start. I’m sure these poll numbers are suitably terrifying but their only campaign funds are Rauner’s money.

    Comment by The Captain Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 11:53 am

  17. Incumbents would like to be above 50% in a generic re-elect, but considering the environment, their numbers are actually better than I expected. Add the opponents’ names, and, while the races might be tight, and the top of the ticket is a drag, they’ll probably weather the storm. The House GOP has never had the financial resources they will have this year to protect incumbents and go after some Dems.

    Comment by Anon Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:01 pm

  18. it’s all about the actual opponent. in some places a Sanders type Dem works, in others maybe not.

    Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:02 pm

  19. ===but their only campaign funds are Rauner’s money===

    And there’s plenty of it. Don’t kid yourself.

    Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:03 pm

  20. –You word a question like that and still only get 44 percent “less likely”?–

    How’s about that 27% that said “more likely?”

    Rough neighborhood.

    Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:24 pm

  21. Sangamon County Republicans are waking up.

    Comment by Liberty Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:47 pm

  22. I believe the Governor will have the Agency Ethics Officers pen memos for release at 4:00 pm the Friday before Election Day reminding State and University workers that it is a conflict of interest to vote in State Elections and choosing to do so may result in discipline or charges being filed under the Ethics Act!

    Comment by Triple fat Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:52 pm

  23. - Triple fat - Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 12:52 pm:
    And it will probably remind them to be sure and vote, “the election is Wednesday”…ha ha.

    Comment by Beaner Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:47 pm

  24. -will those organizing May 18th see the playbook too?-

    Kay/Rauner/Trump….check

    Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:30 pm

  25. Ms. Sara J. Is going to find out the way Bryce Benton did, how seriously families of state workers take the Governor’s bullying. Come on November!!

    Comment by Union Man Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:54 pm

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