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We need some growth

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Chicago, the only city among the nation’s 20 largest to see population loss in 2015, could be overtaken in a decade by Houston as the third-most-populous city if the trend continues, experts said.

The city of Chicago lost about 2,890 residents between 2014 and 2015, bringing the city’s population down to 2,720,546, according to newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Numbers made available in March showed the greater Chicago area, which includes the city and suburbs and extends into Wisconsin and Indiana, lost an estimated 6,263 residents — the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country… Rockford and Joliet lost residents, about 876 and 73 people, respectively, according to census data. […]

Experts say the main factors in Chicago’s population dip are the exodus of African-Americans and the aging of the Mexican immigrant population. More than any other city, Chicago has depended on Mexican immigrants to balance the sluggish growth of its native-born population, said Paral, the Chicago demographer. During the 1990s, immigration accounted for most of Chicago’s population growth.

But after 2007, falling Mexican-born populations became a trend across the country’s major metropolitan areas. Most of those cities were able to make up for the loss with the growth of their native populations, but Chicago couldn’t.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 20, 16 @ 10:38 am

Comments

We are the most mobile society in history. People like to go where it is warm. I just don’t see how Illinois and other midwestern states grow in population in that respect. Texas, Florida, California. Those are states people go to. I’m tied to the land. But if I weren’t, heck yeah I would be headin’ south too.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, May 20, 16 @ 10:45 am
Oh! So it’s not the 1%-ers fleeing a “high tax state”?

Comment by Anonymous Friday, May 20, 16 @ 10:47 am
I agree. I agree 100%.

The fallacy of Houston… too false.

http://www.governing.com/topics/urban/gov-houston-urban-revival.html

The “growth” of Houston is built upon annexation. While Houston “climbs” in the “growth in population”, Houston remains 10th in Media Markets… behind Boston, Phillidelphia and Chicago… also behind Dallas-Fort Worth too.

The point?

Houston’s model is shifting people from inside the media market to make them “Houston Proper” residents through annexation.

It’s the same number of jellybeans now just going into one jar.

Chicago needs serious growth, no doubt, but to follow Houston, Thant means the model says Oak Park, Cicero, Evanston… they need to be annexed… to be… just like Houston.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 10:52 am
The 1%ers go to a state like Florida for 6 months 1 day each year. They likely have a residence in IL too, just not their official residence.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, May 20, 16 @ 10:58 am
The most effective single item state government can do to promote economic growth is have a stable and predictable budget process that does not hold the budget hostage to ancillary issues.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:01 am
To expand on OW’s point of annexation, Chicago is pretty much “land-locked” by suburban cities and the lake, whereas Houston is not. Houston is still able to annex land and make more room for residential areas. That’s not the whole reason, but it’s an important one.

Comment by Moby Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:07 am
The entire global economy ….EU China most of the Americas have flat to shrinking populations. We need income and wealth growth that is not going to just the tip fraction of one percent.

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:09 am
This will all change when climate change makes south of the Mason-Dixon line unliveable. Chicago is well positioned for the long term.

Comment by Jorge Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:14 am
You’re seeing growth in whiter, wealthier populations in the still-burgeoning Greater Loop and North Side and a sharp decline in poor black populations on the South and West sides.

Housing ain’t cheap in the city. Price it yourself and you’ll see.

Big rental and condo towers continue to go up, virtually all the high-rise CHA Towers have come down, resulting in a loss of nearly 200,000 black residents the last 10 years.

Think that was an accident?

I wouldn’t count on any major increases in Chicago’s population in the future. The population has been going down since a peak of 3.6 million in 1950. 2.7 million to 2.8 million seems to be where it’s settling the last 30 years or so.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:19 am
===Chicago is pretty much “land-locked” by suburban cities and the lake, whereas Houston is not.===

They address that in the Governing article, the “land lock” constraints Houston doesn’t have.

And you’re right, - Moby - it’s not the whole reason. The media market measure of growth, for me is more telling, simply because DFW is still considerably larger than Houston in that market, and Houston proper’s growth is predicated by a pen many times.

Much respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:20 am
–The most effective single item state government can do to promote economic growth…—

… is pay its bills. The state owes about $10 billion to Illinois businesses, non-profits, utilities and universities.

That’s just swell for the economy.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:21 am
Chicago is losing population in the poorer areas because of the crime and lack of decent employment.

Until the city finds a way to lock up more of the 1,300 people that have been identified as the major troublemakers the situation will continue to get worse

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:22 am
Jorge is right. Temps in India hit 123 degree today.almost all opulation growth is pojected in an arc from India to either Africa. Just don’t see how that happens.

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:24 am
As Wordslinger notes, the north side (and near west side/south loop) are booming. Two Chicagos. But people should think long and hard before they go bashing charter schools and calling for redeploying police: the thing that keeps this city from becoming Detroit is that there are no attractive options for yuppies in the suburbs and there’s enough attraction for the middle class (and/or the law requiring city employees to live here).

The African-American flight is another reason why Karen Lewis’ charge that the school closings were “racist” because they reflected that flight was so terrible.

Comment by lake county democrat Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:29 am
You have the chicken and the egg all wrong. The reason Houston is growing is not because of annexation, annexation is happening because Houston is growing.

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:29 am
Since Chicago needs serious growth? How can they grow when they are broke & their governor refuses to help them?

Comment by Mama Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:37 am
Does anyone have any data on the number of households in the city? I get the sense that total households continue to increase, but the size of those households continues to decrease for some very common reasons. I know that anecdotes are narrow, but in my very healthy of the city the total population is declining slowly since young families have just one or two children instead of the two, three or even four not too long ago.

Comment by 39th Ward Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:39 am
=== The most effective single item state government can do to promote economic growth is have a stable and predictable budget process that does not hold the budget hostage to ancillary issues. ===

Followed by a stable and long-term strategic spending and revenue plan.

Illinois’ income tax went down, but businesses know that taxes are going back up. They want to know what those tax plans are so that they can implement a plan that optimizes tax-avoidance.

Part of the reason that we didn’t see more growth under Quinn is that his tax increase sunseted after only a few years. Businesses knew it would have to be replaced by something, they just weren’t sure what. And businesses are less reluctant to make a long-term investment when they don’t know what the long-term tax implications are.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:40 am
- Doug -

It’s still the 10th largest media market.

Dallas-Fort Worth is larger.

Signing papers and adding 8,000 people as the ameba grows, it’s not growth, it’s shifting numbers in columns, large chunks of numbers at a time.

Houston has to pass 7 cities to get to Chicagoland.

It’s inflating Houston proper, and while there’s growth, it’s inflated.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:42 am
Illinois’ insurmountable problem is a corrupt government that escalated the cost of government beyond the willingness of its residents to pay. It was done to garner political support from public employees and their families and friends in order to keep the political class in power.

It worked too well.

There’s no trick involved in growing population. You need good paying jobs in the private sector to attract workers and their families, good schools at fair prices to improve the outlook for the future for those coming in, and responsibly run government that provides value commensurate with cost.

One of the reasons that Minnesota is able to attract jobs despite high tax rates and lousy weather is that when people pay more for infrastructure and schools, they see that the money is well spent and effectively and honestly administered. That isn’t the case in Illinois.

Companies won’t invest enough to matter here until government shows a willingness to address structural problems in a smart, effective way instead of just raising taxes to “feed the beast”. That’s all Madigan is seeking now, and who knows what Rauner is really after.

Until community leaders and voters show an interest in doing what’s necessary here by changing leadership instead of just crying “where’s mine!” this won’t get better.

Comment by Illinois Bob Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:47 am
Does anyone really go around screaming “We’re #3″. Chicago’s a big metropolitan city with a big metropolitan reputation. We were able to go from 2 to 3 with little hyperventilating. Chicago is not a sprawl like LA or Houston. It’s still a collection of neighborhoods that patch together a wonderful quilt. Even with our warts, we’re way better than the others.

Comment by A guy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:50 am
Let’s see if Houston keeps growing. It flooded quite badly recently. The area is a geologic and environmental disaster area because of the terrain,large amount of chemical companies and lack environmental protection. I think people will soon start to leave.

Comment by independent Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:51 am
All of these comments are missing the more important tidbit in this story. Illinois is ONE OF ONLY three states which have yet to return to their pre recession peak job numbers. The problem here isn’t the weather folks or the lack of a budget. The problem is the Dems have more or less put us in to an insolvent financial predicament not receptive to anyone looking to relocate their business

Comment by Sue Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:55 am
OW,

I don’t disagree with your point about the media market being much smaller, but Houston is largely made up of Houston, not the burbs…hence the reason why it’s the fastest growing “big city”.

DFW on the other hand has seen most of it’s growth from the suburbs (and Fort Worth, who have annexed huge portions of former farm land to double in size over the last decade or two).

If there is a place that will catch Chicagoland in the next couple of decades, it will be DFW…not Houston.

So with that said, the fact remains. Growth in Chicagoland is stagnant while DFW is adding over 100,000 people a year and that number is increasing. Texas is adding over 1000 people a day.

While some on this blog, the owner included, joked about former Governor Perry making the rounds recruiting corporate relocations, his tour worked.

Toyota and Kubota moved their US Headquarters from California to DFW. Facebook is moving a huge data center to Ft. Worth, Apple is moving thousands of jobs to Austin. Liberty Mutual, Fidelity and State Farm all are building huge new campuses here bringing in tens of thousands of jobs.

Every major city in Texas is booming right now. Houston has seen a slowdown in the past year because of oil prices, but tower cranes are still everywhere there as money continues to flow through the commercial real estate market.

I have been here 30 years and have seen DFW more than double in size. If it doubles in size in the next 30 years, it will easily be much bigger than Chicago.

As Davy Crockett said….”You can all go to hell, I’m going to Texas.”

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:01 pm
- independent - Friday, May 20, 16 @ 11:51 am:

Let’s see if Houston keeps growing. It flooded quite badly recently. The area is a geologic and environmental disaster area because of the terrain,large amount of chemical companies and lack environmental protection. I think people will soon start to leave.”

Houston is built in a low coastal plain, it floods. It has always flooded. It will always flood.

The growth in Houston is out away from the coast, much less prone to flooding as the downtown area.

And people aren’t leaving Houston, it gained over 150,000 people last year alone.

Where people are leaving is Illinois…….

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:05 pm
Chicago has fresh water, which will soon become more important than a warm climate. We just need to retain public control of the great lakes.

Comment by TinyDancer(FKA Sue) Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:05 pm
===And people aren’t leaving Houston, it gained over 150,000 people last year alone.===

How much of that was annexation?

That’s my point.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:08 pm
OW,

I typed up a long response on Houston, it must be in held up in moderation……my big brother doesn’t trust me to post without him looking at it first.

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:22 pm
== The problem is the Dems ==

When people who leave the state are asked why, very few mention state policies. The number one reason is work related moves, followed by weather, followed by quality fo life. https://capitolfax.com/2014/04/30/gallup-half-of-illinoisans-would-leave-if-they-could/

Comment by anony Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:26 pm
the trend is cities south and west are growing quickly and other cities are slowing down overall.

FL in particular.

Comment by Ghost Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:27 pm
- Doug -

I think that’s where the joke is on the lazy.

It’s DFW and the significant growth there that’s amazing. Austin too.

Make no mistake, I can count, I can see congressional district(s) being added in Texas, while Illinois loses onesies and maybe twosies too.

The premise that Houston, which as a market is eclipsed by DFW by many more people, is “growing”, but actually just annexing at a higher rate because they can, is silly.

When Houston passes DFW, then I’ll take note. DFW already has my attention with a different grown model.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:28 pm
This is almost all about the declining African-American population, which has been happening steadily for at least 15 years or so. Get off the Dan Ryan at 55th Street and drive north to the Loop on State Street. You’ll travel past nearly 3 miles of mostly vacant lots that for more than 75 years were home to a great black metropolis.

No matter what form the redistricting process takes in 2020, these demographic shifts will make preserving African-American representation levels in the GA and Congress extremely daunting. (It wasn’t exactly easy last time, resulting in districts stretching from the South Side to Kankakee County.) Expect plenty of voting rights litigation.

Comment by Sgt. W Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:31 pm
- Doug -

To my complete agreement.

===So with that said, the fact remains. Growth in Chicagoland is stagnant while DFW is adding over 100,000 people a year and that number is increasing. Texas is adding over 1000 people a day.===

Exactly. This. This is perfect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:31 pm
You state that Houston is only growing because of Annexation, but that isn’t the case. It’s how cities are built here….the city annexes huge amounts of land area then the developers come in and build huge subdivisions on that land.

The greater Houston area gained 159,000 people last year, that includes the city, the burbs and The Woodlands (where Exxon is building their new World Headquarters).

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-43.html.

By actual numbers of people, the Houston area gained more people last year than did DFW.

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:34 pm
–Illinois is ONE OF ONLY three states which have yet to return to their pre recession peak job numbers.–

According to the 3-25-16 U.S. News and World Report, drawing on Department of Labor stats, ten states have not reached their pre-recession employment peak, and not one of them is Illinois.

But thanks for playing.

The ten are:

Wyoming
Alabama
New Mexico
New Jersey
Missouri
Mississippi
Nevada
Maine
Connecticut
West Virginia

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2016-03-25/job-totals-trail-pre-recession-levels-in-10-us-states

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:35 pm
Based on Congressional representation, Illinois has lost population to the South and West after every census since the invention of air conditioning.

Comment by It's no coincidence that... Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:36 pm
- Doug -

Ah…

I hope you see my “frustration”, like the jellybeans in a jar in regards to Houston “passing” Chicago.

I am not denying, Texas’ growth, especially DFW.

Thanks, OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:36 pm
===You state that Houston is only growing because of Annexation, but that isn’t the case.===

No, I’m asking how much of the growth can be attributed to annexation? Their own admitted model, including the little to no zoning requirements, has annexing land, existing subdivisions, as part of building Houston.

Chicago can’t pivot off any of that in any type of growth model. That’s where I was going.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:40 pm
Anony your 2014 list of the top 10 State’s people want to leave are mostly run by Democrats

IL, CT, Maryland, NV, RI, NJ, NY, Mass, LA and Mississippi

Texas would be the most Republican state in the union and is growing

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:41 pm
Wow- a point .001 decline-

Comment by Liberty Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:42 pm
Houston has been and remains the center of the United States’ oil extraction, refining and export industry.

Despite recent setbacks due to price, that is the epitome of big business, it has been booming and will continue to do so in the future, especially now that the ban on crude exports has been lifted.

Once you can export liquified natural gas, that will also be a huge boost economic boost to that area.

If you manufacture anything that requires refined oil products (and there are plenty), why wouldn’t you be in the center of where they extract and refine the oil, and from where you can export your finished product?

Governors and state legislatures have oogats to do with that economic dynamism.

Now that the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of oil, and is a net exporter of petroleum products, and has resumed the export of crude oil, I guess we’re energy independent.

So we can get out of the Middle East — right?

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:45 pm
There is a reason why Texas is growing at the rate that it is, and it has little to do with air conditioning.

There are jobs here, cheap housing and low taxes.

The folks moving here from California to work at Toyota or one of their suppliers are bidding up houses up to 30% over list price….why?

Because they can’t belive you can buy a 3,000 square foot house under 10 years old for less than $300,000. So they fall in love with a house in a good school district and since they have a pocket full of money from selling their 1,100 sq foot house for $1,000,000 in California, they are offering $350,000 all cash offer….

The seller is happy, the buyer is happy and my property values have gone up 35% in two years.

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:46 pm
–Anony your 2014 list of the top 10 State’s people want to leave are mostly run by Democrats–

It must be incredibly liberating to be so unfettered by the burden of complex thought.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:50 pm
Wordslinger you are trying to convince everyone that Governors and State legislatures have nothing to do with economic dynamism. The first step in solving a problem is realizing you have one and you and a majority of the GA are not there yet.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:55 pm
- Doug -

I have family in Collin County Texas. I tell them my property taxes here in Kendall County, they say that’s 6-7 years of property taxes for them.

There’s a lot to like about Texas, when I visit, it’s tough to come back. But, I do. I love Illinois, and in the future I may move, and Illinois has serious problems, some more dire now than 14 months ago, but it wasn’t sunshine and lollipops then too.

Illinois needs to right it’s ship abc show stability to keep or attract new businesses and jobs, keep peole here, have people move here, but right now, even the credit raters are nervous. Lots of work to do.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:57 pm
“We need some growth”

Not saying you’re wrong, but there is plenty of growth Chicago — more so than any other part of the state. The south and west Loop areas were filled with nothing but junk yards, SRO’s and abandoned warehouses 20 years ago. Now they’re packed with tens of thousands of affluent, new Chicagoans who work in financial services, marketing, technology, etc. Even in the last few months, you can’t pick up an issue of Crain’s that doesn’t have a story about a new development breaking ground.

But big chunks of the the South and West sides have hollowed out because of the disappearance of manufacturing and other blue collar jobs. Not sure how to get those gigs back.

Comment by It's no coincidence that... Friday, May 20, 16 @ 12:59 pm
Rahm has done a good job attracting white collar jobs and young technology workers to Chicago.

The blue collar situation would improve with changes to Workers Comp (possibly could happen) and even more with enterprise zones (RTW ) which will never happen.

Refusing to help rebuild these these suffering communities both in Chicago and downstate within the reality of competitive environment in neighboring states should be an embarrassment to our leaders but it is not.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:15 pm
If Chicago wants to shrink the former suburbs of Austin, Hyde Park, Jefferson Park, Rogers Park, etc. and O’Hare can be DE-anexed.

Comment by Anon. Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:28 pm
–Wordslinger you are trying to convince everyone that Governors and State legislatures have nothing to do with economic dynamism. The first step in solving a problem is realizing you have one and you and a majority of the GA are not there yet.–

LP, the first step would be Raunerbots like yourself to articulate a quantifiable projected ROI on the governor’s agenda, just like the big boys and girls in business do.

Take your time. It’s only May 2016.

After that, you can point me to any course offering at any economics department at any university in the country remotely related to “state governments and economic dynamism.”

You’re selling a partisan wish-list disguised as “economics.” You’re just not very good at it.

You want to help the Illinois economy? Tell your boss to pay his bills. He’s way late and billions short.

Getting paid for labor, goods and services provided is kind of crucial, under any theory of capitalism.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:28 pm
@Sgt. W said: “…will make preserving African-American representation levels in the GA and Congress extremely daunting.”

I read that story and thought of redistricting, too. I hope the “Independent Map” folks are prepared to spend plenty of time in federal court.

Comment by Boss T. Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:31 pm
–Rahm has done a good job attracting white collar jobs and young technology workers to Chicago.–

How’d he do that? His good looks and pleasant manner?

You’re way too hung up on personalities and shallow talking points. Economic decisions and trends are way more complex than you apparently can fathom.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:32 pm
I guess your definition shallow talking point would be anything that calls out the failure of our leaders unless it is Rauner.

I really don’t get all of the defending of the anti business policies we clearly have in this state. It is the biggest reason our state has the least confidence in our government by its citizens

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, May 20, 16 @ 1:49 pm
Word- my pal look at page 3 of today’s trib business section-”Illinois 43000 jobs short of peak employment reached in 2000 and is one of just three states not to regain their peak employment”

Comment by Sue Friday, May 20, 16 @ 2:17 pm
===There are jobs here, cheap housing and low taxes.===

And plenty of parking. I read once that Houston had the most parking spaces per capita of any U.S. city. I wonder if that’s still true and how it affects the traffic there.

How’s your commute Doug?

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, May 20, 16 @ 2:28 pm
OW,

Come on down! There is plenty of room for expats, just don’t bring liberal ideas that ruined Illinois to Texas. We do things our way….

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 2:36 pm
- Doug -

I’ve been to San Antonio, Austin, DFW, have really loved my time in Texas. I’m a Jim Edgar type Republican, how will that fly?

If you sold Yuengling Beer, I’d probably be quicker to pull the trigger too.

Thanks for the invite! Next time I’m down, I’ll find my way down to check out your neck of the woods.

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 2:45 pm
47th Ward,

Traffic in DFW is bad, but not Chicago/LA/Houston bad. Houston has gotten a lot better in the last decade, but it’s still a mess. I have a place in downtown Dallas and it takes about an hour fifteen to make it from there to my office in far north Ft. Worth.

From my house in the northern Ft. Worth suburbs it takes about 15 minutes to my office.

I hate Houston, the weather is humid, the landscape and the city itself doesn’t do a lot for me. My son graduated from UH and loves it there. He’s in Oil and Gas, so he’s in North Dakota right now and can’t wait to come home.

OW,

Next time you are down this way let me know. I’ll buy you a Shiner Bock or one of the new brands. Germans settled lots of Texas back in the day, plenty of good local beer here.

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 4:01 pm
OW,

There are all types of Republican’s here. Our Governor and Lt Gov are hard right, the Speaker is a moderate (he took over with Democrats voting for him).

Suburban legislators are the most conservative…my state rep who also happens to be one of my best friends is a Ron Paul Republican. The state conventions are always fun…..

Comment by Doug Friday, May 20, 16 @ 4:04 pm
===Next time you are down this way let me know. I’ll buy you a Shiner Bock or one of the new brands. Germans settled lots of Texas back in the day, plenty of good local beer here.===

Don’t be surprised if I take you up on it. Sounds good.

Also,

I like the diversity of Party, that’s how a Party stays in a Majority. Plus it allows many leaders to emerge.

Hmm….

Stop selling me on Texas!

This sounds like a discussion best “sold@ with a Shiner Bock or 2…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 20, 16 @ 4:36 pm