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Unspinning the U of I

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Six of nine state universities have smaller freshman classes compared to last year, including the University of Illinois at Chicago, where the first-year class is down 5.1 percent, the Tribune reports.

At Eastern Illinois, Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois-Carbondale universities, first-year enrollment has dropped more than 20 percent. Northeastern Illinois, Governors State and Chicago State have not reported figures, but you can guess.

As students shift to schools with deeper pockets, total enrollment at U of I’s three campuses reached an all-time high. That prompted President Tim Killeen to crow, “Despite the headlines about the state budget impasse … students are flocking to our universities in record numbers.”

Don’t get carried away, professor. Your freshman class at the Urbana-Champaign campus rose just 0.4 percent, in addition to UIC’s decline.

Corfman edits my Crain’s column, so I have a definite conflict here, but he puts out a very good product every morning via e-mail called “On Politics” and you really should click here to subscribe for free.

* Semi-related…

* Whet Moser: The Devolution of the Political-Correctness Backlash - What was once a debate about elevating standards in higher education has become a challenge to their existence, and more broadly, an excuse to ignore even the most basic forms of propriety.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:22 am

Comments

UIS also saw an increase - albeit a slight one.

http://news.uis.edu/2016/09/enrollment-increases-at-university-of.html

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:45 am
I really would be interested in seeing Community College data too. Are kids skipping college altogether? Are they choosing cheaper options? Are they streaming in greater numbers than usual to schools outside the state? Private universities are benefiting or suffering too? Fewer kids? There are cycles like this. We know the difficulties our public colleges have faced, but it seems there’s more to this.

Comment by A guy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:49 am
Just wait 10 or 15 years and the Alumni Association sends out nice letters asking for donations to complete the Rauner Leadership Center. Those big checks from Beijing, Shanghai, and Chairman Mao City will really come in handy.

Comment by Enemy of the State Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:55 am
I can’t speak for the whole state of community colleges, but locally, enrollment is down, and the line i hear (no idea how true it is) is that enrollment typically spikes when the economy turns sour, and then sinks again when employment comes back. They get and keep jobs for as long as they can, and then they go back to school if there’s no work

Comment by JohnnyPyleDriver Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:58 am
U of I has a large base number so any change, up or down, will produce a smaller %. Need to look at numbers of students for the U of I system.

Maybe students, and parents, are recognizing that ISU and SIUE and UIUC provide better value. As I have posted a few times, people at EIU and SIUC and possibly other universities were asleep at the switch 6-8 years ago. They didn’t take steps to reverse the trend and here we are today, with a terrible prognosis.

When your doc tells you to quit smoking, drinking and lose 25 lbs, and you don’t listen, you may pay a big price.

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:04 am
===Six of nine state universities have smaller freshman classes compared to last year===

We’re calling this reform now. This is what reform looks like. State Universities are the status quo.

Comment by Anon Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:05 am
Enrollments have been down at these schools since the recession.

Comment by Enlightened Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:09 am
I’m guessing enrollment is down at community colleges as well. When the state holds back MAP funding that so many students rely on, they either look out of state or do not go to school.
Thanks Governor!

Comment by Because I said so.... Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:15 am
The trend is not their friend. I don’t care about totals, I care about the incoming. You can’t be 20% down and whistle a happy tune.

As to the other link, I read it, and wish I hadn’t.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:19 am
Because I said so—Maybe if a person wants to get an education badly enough, they will get a part time job, ask for a loan from the family, etc. Find a way if you want it!

Plus, didn’t they address the MAP grants and provide funding for them?

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:31 am
It is hard to tell if this is a short term trend. I remember people talking about the recession, and that since there were fewer employment opportunities the number of students rose a lot - especially at community colleges which didn’t even have space to serve them all. The lower freshman enrollment could be because of better job prospects, and higher upper level enrollment could be caused by those 2 year college students finishing and transferring. Just a thought. http://www.finaid.org/educators/20100816countercyclicality.pdf

Comment by NoGifts Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:34 am
10-day enrollment reports went into the ICCB from Community Colleges this week. Data should be available from them reasonably soon (in theory).

It will be interesting to see what the statewide numbers show, as well as the numbers from schools close to the public state schools.

And Johnny PyleDriver has it right - CC enrollment typically goes up during bad economic times, and drops when jobs are more plentiful. This is especially true for PT students, where headcount (raw number of students) will fluctuate more than FTE numbers.

Comment by Mr. Smith Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:39 am
New documentary on funding and higher ed:

http://www.starvingthebeast.net/about/

From http://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/sfp_highered_il.pdf

“Only 1 state has cut higher education more than Illinois- Arizona.”

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:44 am
Here is why UIUC and ISU have higher enrollments. To make up for lost state appropriations, they lowered their standards to accept more students. The increased influx of tuition dollars helps to make up for the lost state funding. The increased enrollment at UIUC and ISU comes at a cost to EIU and the other regional universities. This is a zero-sum game. SIUE benefits from being close to a metropolitan area of 3 million people.

Comment by Scamp640 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:58 am
I’m sure UIUC would be surprised to hear they lowered their standards. They have more than enough highly qualified students and turn many away. They are just getting more money from the ones they take.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:02 pm
@Scamp640 — ” To make up for lost state appropriations, they lowered their standards —”

This is where I say that I doubt the veracity of this statement. Please prove me wrong - anonymous well stated “facts” may sway some readers - but give us credible details to prove your point.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:15 pm
UIUC just reported a record freshman class of 7,593 and 38,093 applications received.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:29 pm
@ Illinois. By standards, I mean the minimum ACT / SAT scores, GPAs. UIUC still has very high standards. They don’t have to tweak their minimum standards by much to bring in another several hundred students. It is common knowledge across the state that this is how UIUC operates. There is nothing wrong with it. It called enrollment management. It is what admissions directors at universities do. It is also how all the flagship public universities operate in every state. You can doubt me if I am wrong. That is your prerogative. But I teach and serve as an administrator at an Illinois public institution of higher education and have done so for 21 years. Google the term “enrollment management” to gain insight into how universities meet enrollment goals. It is pretty simple. If funding goes down, you need to admit more tuition-paying students to make up the funding shortfall. How do you admit more students? You let in students that you would have wait-listed or rejected in a previous year.

Comment by Scamp640 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:34 pm
Maybe this helps to put it into context — Illinois public universities have a net migration out, not in, from other states:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/26/us/college-student-migration.html?smid=fb-share.
Eight times as many students left Illinois to go to school as came in from other states.
Nothing to brag about here.

Comment by Pawn Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:36 pm
On the students leaving Illinois, that is going to happen where Illinois has more than twice the population of all of its bordering neighbors. We have a surplus of college age students. They have big universities to fill. That dynamic hasn’t changed for generations, just the incentives those schools are using to attract students has (like offering in-state tuition, etc.) For example Iowa has a population of 3.1m, less than a quarter of Illinois, and has two large public universities to fill.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:44 pm
@ Ron Burgandy. To the contrary, they are not surprised at all. Universities tweak their “standards” all the time. Again, it is called enrollment management. Universities have payroll and other expenses to meet. These are largely fixed costs. The challenge for a university is to pay for the fixed costs when revenues vary significantly. In order to pay for these largely fixed costs when revenues drop, the first order of business is to adjust the number of incoming tuition-paying students.

If state funding is cut, how will universities make up the shortfall. The first and easiest way for universities at the top of the food chain is to increase the number of students. How do you do that? You adjust downward, slightly, the minimum standard cutoff to get in. However, because the applicant pool does not change, a shift downward in admissions standards at UIUC has a ripple effect across the state. Students who expected to enroll at EIU or NIU are now choosing to attend UIUC. UIUC’s gain is NIU’s loss. It is a zero sum game.

Comment by Scamp640 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:49 pm
Scamp, UIUC turned away more than 30,000 students. If they needed the money that badly, why didn’t they admit another couple of thousand? And do you think the kids who were nearly admitted had inferior grades/ACT-SAT scores? I don’t.

Maybe the directional schools need to work harder to attract those students who were not admitted to UIUC.

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:50 pm
UIUC enrollment gains (however small) continue to be propped up by non-residents and those from other countries:

Resident: 2015 = 27,418; 2016 = 27,656
Non-Resident: 2015 = 16,669; 2016 = 17,224
Other Countries: 2015 = 10,393; 2016 = 10,718

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:58 pm
@Scamp640 UIUC freshman numbers over the past decade don’t support that they are throwing the doors open to increase funding. While this year’s 7593 number is the highest ever, and last year’s was 7565, every class since 2006 has been above 6900 and its not a steady increase. And 38,000 applications doesn’t indicate a lack of interest (granted I’m sure there are graduate applications in there and plenty of students who were accepted but chose to go elsewhere). It indicates a lot of people who didn’t get in. My point is adding a couple hundred students if that doesn’t help the budget much. If anything they are doing that by adjusting the mix of the class to take in more students who are paying more (like out-of-state and in the case of the large Chinese population out-of-country). As for the blanket statement about lowering standards, you brought that forward as a fact, and therefore were challenged to provide some hard evidence in support of that fact (schools lowering published standards, etc.).

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:06 pm
@Scamp - Thank you for your courteous and thoughtful response.

And from what you are saying, perhaps the point could be made that the minimum standards need to be raised. I know that exceptions are always made depending on the program a prospective student may be considering and their supporting documentation, but I do not think this is widespread. In my opinion, even the minimum scores may be setting the bar too low in some disciplines.

I know how competitive it has become to get admitted to our Flagship institution, but 5 generations of my family have graduated and I am certain none of us were admitted by virtue of lowering the standards.

At least you are not going to blame the problems at the UofI on the International Students who are attending. Granted they pay a premium, but I have never heard of any qualified in state student being denied admission.

Comment by illini@ Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm
Scamp640 +1

UIUC has also substantially increased admissions of international students (who pay higher tuition than in-state admits) in recent years to generate more tuition dollars. As far as I know, there was no reduction in admission of in-state students. Instead, there was a sudden spike in undergrad enrollment and class sizes.

We need more info to assess this year’s results. What was the target enrollment at each campus; how did the stats on student quality change, how many of the top IL students chose U of I, etc.?

The latest master plan calls for a substantial increase in enrollment to reduce dependence on unreliable state funding. It looks like little progress was made toward reaching that goal this year.

Comment by X-prof Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm
City Zen, please read my post right above yours. I can assure you, the majority of those kids denied entrance to UIUC reside in Illinois.

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:09 pm
“Scamp, UIUC turned away more than 30,000 students.”

Well that isn’t accurate, because as I said, that number would include presumably thousands of students that were accepted but chose to go somewhere else for whatever reason. Schools admit many more students than they can take based on historical data as to how many actually accept and show up. That’s why the freshman enrollment is bound to fluctuate year to year at least a little. It’s not an exact science, but they only have so many dorm spaces, etc.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:10 pm
“And do you think the kids who were nearly admitted had inferior grades/ACT-SAT scores? I don’t.”

Why, and based on what? Given the instability in funding and stories about faculty leaving and of guidance counselors advising high school seniors to go elsewhere, it’s not unreasonable to think there might be some degradation.

We really need data, not opinions. If there is an effect, it could show across the spectrum (e.g, fewer top-notch students), not just at the bottom.

Comment by X-prof Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:15 pm
For what it’s worth, and maybe it’s not much, the ACT composite at UIUC for admitted freshmen has been essentially flat since at least 2010.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:29 pm
=== I can assure you, the majority of those kids denied entrance to UIUC reside in Illinois.===

You can assure me with a cite, otherwise… you can’t.

Cite please?

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:31 pm
===rose just 0.4 percent===

Imagine what it could have been with a state budget.

Comment by thechampaignlife Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:36 pm
Thank you Willy — Cite please? —

I am starting to ask this question more frequently myself. We should all expect from others and be expected to cite ourselves verification of “facts” that are put on this site.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:43 pm
Well the regionals will be there when these “additional” students flunk out at U of I…I think. EIU and SIU should have signs saying something like that on I-57.

And those who do retain, what do they get? I was a TA at two different state flagships in the Midwest (both ranked above U of I in my field). Those students in those giant classes get something but I’m not sure I’d call it an education.

Comment by Chucktownian Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:49 pm
According to the stats on the UIUC website, it looks like UIUC is more selective now than just five years ago:

2015
- Total first-time, first-year (freshman) men who applied / admitted = 19,515 / 12,061 = 62%
- Total first-time, first-year (freshman) women who applied / admitted = 14,756 / 10,407 = 71%

2010
- Total first-time, first-year (freshman) men who applied / admitted = 14,846 / 12,427 = 84% admission rate
- Total first-time, first-year (freshman) women who applied / admitted = 9,766 / 8,547 = 88%

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:53 pm
For the record all of the figures I cite above re class sizes and ACT composites are from official UIUC reports.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Willy, there is that Google thingy if you want to prove me wrong. About 70% of the kids in an incoming freshman class at UIUC are from the state of Illinois. That is actually low as it used to be 80%-90% 10-15 years ago.

Last time I checked 70% would make a majority. Have at it if you want to “own it” and prove me wrong.

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:55 pm
This Fall the enrollment at my Community College is basically flat. This is good because last year we had a sizable drop in enrollment. But, interestingly, in Fall of 15, the percentage of high school graduates in our district who enrolled in our college increased. That is a key part of the equation, there simply isn’t as many college age students as there were ten years ago.

Comment by G'Kar Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:00 pm
No, - Piece of Work -

That’s not how it works.

You want a fact, show it.

You said a majority of DENIED students.

Cite please?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:02 pm
- You said a majority of DENIED students.
Cite please? -

Rather than continue this fascinating argument for ten more posts, can we just stipulate that colleges don’t publish data on the students they reject?

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:05 pm
Quit being a child Willy

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:06 pm
- Ron Burgundy -

lol, I walked it around a bit, but - Piece of Work - knows… lol.

Props to - City Zen - for showing the work. That’s substantive, I can assure you…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:08 pm
- Piece of Work -

Show your work is all, I assure you, you won’t face questions.

To the Post,

Financial enticements for Illinois students to attend out of state schools are now reaping more students fir places like Iowa State and Missouri.

The state schools here are competing, and are also losing funding.

Tough road.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:11 pm
— The state schools here are competing, and are also losing funding.

Tough road. —

Sad, isn’t it!!!!!

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:17 pm
Let’s throw another statistic into the mix. What are the trend lines for the supply of students (were the birth rates from 18 years ago reflective of a growing trend then or a a declining trend)? What does the future hold for the demographic cohort for likely applicants to Illinois universities?

Comment by 39th Ward Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:19 pm
@ City Zen. I am not sure your data actually show greater selectivity. The data might show this, but I am not sure. Overall, the UIUC is admitting more students in 2015 than in 2010. But we actually need to see the changing average ACT scores to know for sure. Because the overall number of applications is greater in 2015 than in 2010, the average ACT score could have gone down while still admitting more students.

This article from the Tribune shows that average ACT scores at UIUC grew from 25 to 28 between 1987 to 2009.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-college-clout-admissions-jun01-story.html

The average ACT score is still 28 in 2016. From this data, at least, the ACT score has plateaued, while the total number of applicants has increased.

Comment by Scamp640 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:22 pm
Rich - Thank you for the suggestion to sign up for the Crains On Politics email - just more daily reading for me. Looks like an interesting read.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:29 pm
Tom Corfman is doing his High School Alma Mater, St. Ignatius, proud.

Comment by GA Watcher Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:30 pm
@Scamp - appreciate your contribution to this thread, but did you just contradict your initial comment that the UofI was lowering its admissions standards? Always enjoy honest conversation.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:53 pm
@ Illinois. I don’t think so. The data shows increasing standards over a 20 year period. Since 2009, the ACT scores have remained the same while applicant numbers have increased. That might be a described as a defacto decrease in standards. And this is occurring as state funding is being cut. But I could be wrong…

Comment by Scamp640 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:12 pm
@Scamp640 - I agree. There are so many ways to parse the data, it’s hard to pinpoint a reason. And I’ve been unable to find ACT scores in the stats.

http://www.dmi.illinois.edu/stuenr/misc/cds_2015_2016.xls

That said, I give immense props to the folks at UIUC in general for the enrollment stats they post. It’s cool to see enrollment by state. For example, 70 Arizona residents are enrolled. I’d wager we send way more students to UofA.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:17 pm
===if a person wants to get an education badly enough===

Sure. And if I want to travel to the moon badly enough, I could do that too in theory. How much potential of our brightest minds and top future leaders and entrepreneurs will be lost because they “didn’t want it badly enough”?

===didn’t they address the MAP grants and provide funding for them?===

Yeah, after the fact. Better than not getting it at all but a lot more stressful than necessary. Some had to pay upfront, others were told they would have to pay in the State did not come through. Many dropped out. Not a lot of help the grant provided those folks.

Comment by thechampaignlife Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:21 pm
I apologize for not presenting any source data to back up the assertion I am about to make, but …

way back when I was applying for college in 1978 (applications were delivered by pony express as I recall), UIUC was generally considered the “safety” school for many who were applying to college. That is clearly no longer the case.

Standards for admission to UIUC are far far higher than they once were.

Comment by Filmmaker Prof Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:31 pm
College admissions is indeed a zero sum game, but only if you view it from the perspective of the entire world.

Comment by Filmmaker Prof Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:34 pm
Also keep in mind average ACT across the incoming student body isn’t the best measure either, but it’s the one thing that’s easiest to compare from person to person. GPA’s are problematic because difficulty of high schools, courses, etc. vary widely. Schools take that into account but an apples to apples comparison is tough.

Also average test scores vary widely based on college and major at even UIUC. Engineering requires higher scores than Agriculture, for example. And some schools like Fine and Applied Arts weigh auditions and interviews more highly to measure talent and aptitude in their majors.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:40 pm
@Filmmaker - When I was applying to the UofI in 1967, this was my one and only choice and never considered to be a fall back or safety school.

Times change.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:42 pm
Yeah U of I wasn’t a safety school in the late 80’s either. Maybe if you were applying to Ivy’s ala Tom Cruise in Risky Business “Looks like University of Illinois!”

In fact, schools like ISU and the directional and neighboring publics like Iowa were considered safety schools from UIUC anecdotally by my classmates.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:51 pm
While it is true that states like Iowa have large universities and much smaller state populations than Illinois, the same can’t be said of Illinois. We have plenty of students applying. Reasonable to understand why Iowa, for example, would have a sizable out of state contingent and the need to draw from other states. Illinois—not so.

Yet, the number of in state students has dropped over the years, in favor of out of state and international students. I just assumed it was a money issue. It doesn’t cost ILlinois more to educate an Iowan than a resident but they sure get alot more tuition dollars. Of course, the same can’t be said about international students. They may get more tuition dollars, but there is a cost in the way of interpreters, trips to conduct orientation in China, etc.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 4:12 pm
@Ron - thanks for the reminder from “Risky Business”

Great point about safety schools - mine was SIUC but I received my acceptance from the UofI the same day I got my application from SIU. No need to look at other options for me.

Comment by illini Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 4:15 pm