Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Democratic poll has Schneider up by 10

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* As we discussed the other day, a Republican poll had Congressman Bob Dold leading Brad Schneider in the 10th CD by 7 points. The DCCC called that poll a joke. The House Majority PAC released its own poll today…

To: House Majority PAC
From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: October 19, 2016
Subject: Schneider Poised to Defeat Dold in November

A survey conducted October 11th to 13th, 2016 by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of House Majority PAC shows that voters in Illinois’ 10th Congressional district are likely to elect Democratic challenger Brad Schneider over incumbent Congressman Bob Dold in November. The survey includes 738 responses, conducted by IVR calls to landlines and live operator calls to cellphones, with a margin of error of +/- 3.61% at a 95% confidence interval.

Brad Schneider leads Bob Dold by 10% in the race for Congress. Schneider gets the support of 44% of the voters in the district, compared to 36% for Dold. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward supporting, Dold adds 2% while Schneider adds 4%, bringing the margin to 48% to 38%. Schneider’s lead complements a wide Democratic margin at the top of the ticket in the district. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 23% - 53% to 30% - showing room for even more growth in Schneider’s support as election day approaches.

Schneider and Dold are both well-known to the voters in the district: 63% of the district’s voters have an opinion on Schneider while 70% have an opinion of Dold. Schneider’s favorable rating is 33% and his unfavorable is 30%. Bob Dold’s favorability is now in the red: 34% have a favorable opinion while 36% of the district gives him an unfavorable rating. While 23% and 22% are neutral on the two candidates, respectively, 13% have still not heard of Schneider while just 8% have not heard of Dold.

Schneider has a commanding lead with Democrats, winning 86% - 5%, while also winning 9% of voters who identify as Republicans. He trails among Independents 37% - 45%, though his comparatively lower name recognition and Democratic Presidential performance suggest that he has room to grow. The district’s party ID leans Democratic, with 45% identifying as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. Schneider’s solid Democratic performance and near-parity among Independents (20% of party ID) are key to his large topline margin.

Schneider benefits from a huge gender gap, winning 50% of women to 39% for Dold. Dold has a much smaller lead among men, 46%-41%.

While Bob Dold has been able to win in non- Presidential years, he struggles with the higher turnout and down-ballot pressures of Presidential years. While Mitt Romney lost this district, he ran well ahead of the 30% Donald Trump is currently getting. Brad Schneider’s record and his connection with this district, combined with the toxic Republican brand created by the Republican Presidential nominee, looks to be too much for Dold to survive in 2016.

The poll was conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, using a sample pulled from the TargetSmart voter file. Responses were weighted using turnout scores to reflect the likely voting electorate in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District.

These two guys could easily wind up trading that seat back and forth every two years until the next remap. We’ll know soon enough.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 11:14 am

Comments

These two guys could easily wind up trading that seat back and forth every two years until the next remap.

At some point it’s worth asking if that’s a good thing. Fortunately both Dold and Schneider really, really, really want to be a congressperson so, for example, if Schneider wins his seat back he would retain his previously earned seniority but if this district was flip-flopping parties every two years and we weren’t getting the same candidates willing to put themselves through that cycle after cycle would it necessarily be fair to the voters of this district to have mapped them into repetitively low seniority status?

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 11:29 am
FYI: FiveThirtyEight.com gives Clarity Campaign Labs a ‘B’ rating with a ‘D+0.4′ mean-reverted bias. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 11:40 am
===These two guys could easily wind up trading that seat back and forth every two years until the next remap.===

In many ways, this seat has been more about policy and who embodies the “momentary” feelings on how things are going.

It’s not like every two years these guys evolve or an epiphany happens. It’s voting approval or disapproval of “the moment”?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 11:54 am
I don’t believe it.
He’s ahead, but turnout is key for a win for him.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 12:06 pm
This poll is far more likely to reflect reality than last week’s poll showing a 7% Dold lead … unfortunately.

Comment by Deft Wing Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 12:46 pm
VM and DW, it’s hard to believe either of these polls. No one is ahead or behind 7, let alone 10 in that district. 2% is a landslide there.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 12:53 pm
Guy - in previous years I would say you are correct. But with Trump at the top of the ticket - and not likely to break 40% in the 10th CD - then I can see this being a 5+% spread for Schneider.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 1:21 pm
It’s the new version of the old Indiana Bloody Ninth.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 1:48 pm
Turnout, turnout, turnout.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 2:07 pm
===Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 23% - 53% to 30% - showing room for even more growth in Schneider’s support as election day approaches.===

Just yesterday, Bob Dold called Hillary Clinton a “disaster.” Ouch.

Comment by lake county Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 2:23 pm
T Sleep, I could conceive of 5 points. But not until election day.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 3:04 pm
==Just yesterday, Bob Dold called Hillary Clinton a “disaster.” Ouch.==

Not fatal. Her supporters and voters are already in the count. Whoever she’s got now, is most of what she’s gonna get.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 3:08 pm
Spent some time on the Lake County 2016 primary election results website, recently. Now granted, the 10th comprises part of northern Cook and not all of Lake. But the final Dem results for Lake were Hillary 52% and Bernie 46.9%. Hillary is not a beloved commodity in these parts, obviously.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 19, 16 @ 3:29 pm