* From the NRCC…
To: Interested Parties
From: Dan Judy and Jon McHenry
Date: October 12, 2016
Re: Highlights of IL 10 Congressional Survey
North Star Opinion Research conducted a survey of 400 registered voters in Illinois’ 10th congressional district October 8-11, 2016. Congressman Bob Dold remains well-positioned to win reelection, despite the headwinds of an unpopular presidential nominee. Highlights of the survey are:
1. The district retains its Democratic tilt. Democrats hold a 6-point advantage in self- identified party, 34 to 28 percent, and a 3-point advantage on the generic ballot for congress, 44 to 41 percent.
2. Donald Trump is unpopular in the district, while Hillary Clinton has a net positive image. Trump has a 28 to 64 percent favorable to unfavorable rating, compared to a 50 to 44 percent rating for Clinton. Clinton leads 53 to 31 percent on the ballot, with 7 percent for Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.
3. Bob Dold continues to have a positive image in the district. Dold has a 45 to 32 percent favorable-unfavorable rating, superior to both Trump’s and Mark Kirk’s ratings.
4. Dold has expanded his lead since the summer. Dold now leads Brad Schneider by 50 to 43 percent, up from a lead inside the margin of error in August. Looking at likely voters – those who say they are absolutely certain or very likely to vote in November – his lead remains 50-43. Dold receives 53 percent of independent voters, one-fourth of Hillary Clinton voters, and two- thirds of 3rd-party candidate voters.
As the national political environment deteriorates, many Republican candidates in swing districts will need to run well ahead of Donald Trump to win their races. Bob Dold has consistently out- polled Trump by 20 points, and a campaign emphasizing his independence and record of accomplishment for the 10th district has him in a solid position with under four weeks to go. A strong and well-funded campaign will keep him on track to win reelection on November 8.
Methodology
The sample for this Survey of Registered Voters in IL 10, conducted October 8-11, 2016, consists of 400 respondents selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the district who were contacted by live interviewers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live, and 36 percent of respondents were interviewed on a cell phone. Demographic quotas were set to ensure the sample matches registration statistics in the district.
* The DCCC begs to differ…
Newsflash: Republican Bob Dold’s “Poll” is a Joke
The NRCC’s new “poll,” released this morning, has Republican Congressman Bob Dold at a laughable 7-point lead over Democrat Brad Schneider. This “poll” flies in the face of multiple public polls released over the past year showing Schneider with consistent leads over their Republican incumbent:
Furthermore, the NRCC’s results simply defy intelligence, as their presidential nominee Donald Trump continues his death spiral in the polls, and traditionally Republican or swing states start to move over to the Democratic column. No candidate with an “R” next to their name on the ballot will be resistant to this toxic Trump Effect. A recently-released DCCC online survey conducted after the leaked Access Hollywood tapes, and after more recent allegations that Trump made inappropriate sexual advances toward many other women, found that the political environment is shifting in the favor of Democrats. These results are consistent with other public polling released since the debate.
“It’s clear that National Republicans had to cook up a poll to make their incumbent candidate Republican Bob Dold feel better,” said Sacha Haworth. “There’s no other reason why this poll exists, since it flies so blatantly in the face of everything else that’s out there.”
- Nick Nack - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:24 am:
It’s awfully convenient for the NRCC to release this surprisingly favorable (who thinks it’s actually +7?) result right when Trump’s implosion risks depressing turnout. Smart of them to get the headlines, but let’s take it with more than a grain of salt.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:36 am:
Meanwhile Dold sweeps the newspaper endorsementd - Trib, Herald & SunTimes
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:39 am:
There is an important Jewish voting bloc in the 10th District. To the extent that some of these voters care about relations between the USA and Israel, Schneider could have problems.
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:41 am:
@Anonymous Dold’s campaign is saying the *exact* thing on Twitter. What a coincidence.
The party polls, before and now, are a wash. It’s not 7. It’s within MOE.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:41 am:
DCCC and Schneider are clearly freaking out that they are down by 7
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:46 am:
@Anonymous741 Whichever part of the “Jewish voting bloc” the Republican candidates (Kirk and Dold) might normally pick up is offset, at least diminished, by Team Trump going anti-Semitic. The “don’t trust the banks and media” rhetoric is not going to help Dold down the stretch.
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:49 am:
Whoops. Comment at 7:46 was to @Anonymous from 7:39. Sorry about that.
- Ron - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 7:53 am:
Dold will lose. Thank Trump.
- A guy - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 8:29 am:
Sacha doth protest a little too much here I think. I have no idea how accurate this poll (or any poll this late in the cycle) is or not. What I do know from experience is that concoction of varied conclusions is par for the course in that district. The Indies are the majority up there and they split tickets with a laser. It’s always the most interesting district in the state to watch.
- @MisterJayEm - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 8:30 am:
For what it’s worth, the nerds at Five Thirty Eight give North Star Opinion Research a ‘B minus’ rating, and a historical average statistical bias Republican candidates of +0.4%. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
– MrJM
- Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 8:33 am:
The national Democrats find it “laughable” that Trump’s coat trails will sink Dold? The same Dold that has repeatedly disavowed Trump and stated he will not vote for him?
What am I missing here? That the traditional ticket splitting 10th will vote strictly on party lines? What planet are they on?
- Rabid - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 8:41 am:
64% land lines still have 8 tracks?
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:09 am:
With the Republican national message shifting to basically being pro-sexual assault this week, the ball game is over.
We’re just waiting to find out what the score is — and Dold’s district is going to be an indicator of how high the score gets.
- Deft Wing - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:12 am:
It is a joke. Bad move by whoever authorized the release. Unfortunately, it appears Dold is done.
- Responsa - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:27 am:
Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the most part voters in the 10th are not “indies” in the commonly understood political sense that indies don’t know what they are, only pay attention to elections at the last minute, and are easily manipulated. It’s completely the opposite of that. Many voters in the 10th consider themselves to be independent and critical thinkers who relish consuming varied news sources and multiple societal inputs carefully before they decide which candidate may best represent them in any particular office–that time. They are good BS detectors, too. Not all– but most– know that both parties have some really awful people who are a disgrace to the system of checks and balances, and that both parties have some really good people who are not automatically the enemy or Satan just because they happen to have a D or an R next to their name. Thankfully many 10th District voters recognize that both parties have alternate policy ideas and approaches on separate but important issues which should be considered independently both to augment and challenge each other, not salt the earth.
My feelings on polling are no secret. Sacha Haworth’s abrasive and off topic press release, though, is exactly the kind of hot air that 10th District voters automatically reject as insulting partisan blather.
- Skeptic - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:37 am:
“64% land lines still have 8 tracks?” Well, this landline doesn’t have 8-track but does have cassette, reel-to-reel and vinyl. Now get off my lawn!
To the post: Couldn’t they just call it “Phony” and a “Sham” and be done with it?
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:40 am:
@Louis Dold literally headlined an event called “Beat Hillary.” Who wins the presidential race if Hillary loses?
- Just Observing - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:40 am:
I too, of course, don’t know if this is an accurate poll or not, but to argue that it can’t be accurate because polls in April, August, and September had Schneider ahead is laughable as well.
- Nick Nack - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Let me get this straight–Dold is +7 this year when he never won by 7 before, including 2 midterms? Sorry, but that is laughable, folks.
- Chicago_Downstater - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 10:01 am:
I wish they would have published their MOEs and I am suspicious of a 7 point lead. However, it isn’t hard to imagine that Dold could be leading.
I recently read an article at fivethirtyeight that was trying to explain why Senate Dem hopefuls weren’t benefiting from Clinton’s latest surge in the polls. I wonder how much this idea of “anticipatory balancing” is affecting the Dold-Schneider race.
fivethirtyeight article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/
- Anon - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 10:09 am:
Pollsters can weight their polls. Everyone who’s been on a campaign knows that. DCCC was wrong, so is the NRCC, but it’s not stopping the fawning from some reporters (not Rich) ready to run with their narrative about Dold instead of being skeptical.
- Responsa - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 10:43 am:
For people who are heavily focused on polls here is a book you might find interesting and useful in explaining polling data, uses, ethics, and methodology: “The Practice of Social Research” by Earl Babbie. The one on my bookshelf is the sixth edition. I imagine there have been updates to better incorporate newer technology but the essential concepts have not changed much.
The production of and over-reliance on what is mostly sketchy poll data (by pretty much everybody these days) especially when it is used to tell, manufacture or manipulate competing election or policy stories for public consumption, is really not benefiting campaign decision making and is harming American politics IMO. I respect most of Silver’s work but he, too, relies on others to collect the data and when they screw up then even his predictions can be suspect, too.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 14, 16 @ 12:27 pm:
Wait!
Wait!
Wait!
This poll isn’t following our story line!
Trump bad!
Republican in panic!