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Some House Democrats are facing a real dilemma

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Illinois

* The first official vote this newly elected Democratic legislator will cast after being sworn in is during the election for House Speaker…

Newly elected 112th state Rep. Katie Stuart, D-Glen Carbon, said shortly after being elected that it’s a bit premature to say whether she’ll support Madigan for speaker.

“I don’t know what the options will be,” Stuart said. “You’re asking me a hypothetical question just like I wouldn’t tell you how I would vote on any piece of legislation until I actually read the legislation.”

Rauner beat Quinn 58-37 in that district two years ago. The vast majority of votes in that district come from Madison County, which has been trending more Republican with every passing year. It now has a GOP county board chairman and a GOP county board, for instance.

Not to mention that her regional newspapers, the Alton Telegraph and the Belleville News-Democrat, both despise Madigan.

* Stuart defeated Rep. Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon) for various reasons. He seemingly equated birth control with promiscuity, for instance, and Stuart proved herself to be an extremely hard-working candidate. Unless he runs again (and few expect that to happen), she’ll have to work non-stop between now and November, 2018 to win reelection. And unless something changes in this state, her vote for Madigan won’t help.

She might wanna consider calling in sick, or at least pray for a Metro East blizzard in early January. /s

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:24 am

Comments

That is a dilemma. One will be too many. More than one will be too, too many. This will be fascinating actually. Honestly, I think it works either way for the GOP.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:30 am
Surely Madigan is clever enough to give X number of reps a “pass” by voting for someone else?

That sort of thing happens all the time in DC. Once they have the votes they need for anything controversial, the vulnerable Reps get to vote against it.

Comment by Fav Human Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:33 am
Will Madigan’s ego get in the way of his political sense? He could allow a few of the most vulnerable members to abstain.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:33 am
What Fav Human said.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:35 am
Does it take a simple majority to elect the Speaker? Madigan will know the exact number who vote “against” him for public cover and who they are, and why they voted the way they did. The bigger question is, who will be the “opponent”?

Comment by downstate commissioner Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:39 am
===The bigger question is, who will be the “opponent”? ===

Jim Durkin.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:41 am
The continued trolling of the ILRaunerite State Party only exacerbates the dilemma that, when September 2017 rolls along, will Rauner’s continued and unrelenting war against Madigan be enough for Rauner, statewide, win running against Madigan and a Democratic opponent?

Governors own.

You’d think there would be a want for successes. There isn’t.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:44 am
This dilemma extends far beyond the new state rep from the 112th. Numerous House Dems are in harm’s way for voting, again, for Madigan as Speaker (and his one-sided rules).

Rauner’s campaigning for re-election now; and campaigning against Madigan and House Dems. now too.

Comment by Deft Wing Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:46 am
One upside to this election is that swearing in ceremony is going to be tightened up. Don’t expect a lot of speeches effusively praising the Speaker. Arms up, oath, then straight to the receptions?

Comment by LizPhairTax Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:50 am
Things do change…can you believe Madison Cy going toward the Republicans….what is next Dupage going Dem???

Comment by scott aster Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:52 am
Whatever she does, she should not surprise the leadership. A number of private talks will likely occur before the vote.

Comment by Anon III Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:55 am
Durkin will end up being the formal competition, and MJM will be the Speaker.

The more interesting contests will be during informal discussions among reps on whether to offer other names, propose new rules, and what it will cost the Speaker in future commitments.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 10:57 am
Guessin’ BigBrain will make her a target from get go, but the GOPies who vote for Grand Bargain will be in the same boat.

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:02 am
I would be thankful if Madigan would be humble and realize that there needs to be a change in House leadership.

As a middle of the road independent, with a value system that doesn’t fit either party too well, I pay attention to things like this.

Madigan has some serious deficiencies that are not being helped by his odd repetition of his “middle class” mantras. Pretty shallow stuff, almost an insulting way of communicating about the problems facing Illinois by a “leader.”

Comment by cdog Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:04 am
I look forward to Guzzardi and Bullet Tax Cassidy dutifully voting for Speaker Madigan.

Comment by Foie Gras Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:11 am
===Surely Madigan is clever enough to give X number of reps a “pass” by voting for someone else?===

Surely? The next “pass” given would be the first I know of.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:17 am
Given that most of the literature mailed against her called her a Madigan puppet (as an outsider), a vote for Madigan as Speaker is writing the 2018 mailers already.

She’s in a tough spot, but as others have noted the Speaker is no novice.

Comment by illini97 Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:21 am
=but as others have noted the Speaker is no novice=

True. But he is playing the game like it’s 1992. He is seriously lacking a plan, vision and now has waves of distrust in his caucus. What is a Dem to do now? Tough choice of run to him or run away from him as either way hurts in 2018. Dance with him and you own (there’s that word again) his legacy and approval ratings or lose the $$ to fund your reelection by pushing away from him.

Comment by Big Muddy Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:32 am
How many reporters normally cover the vote? This becomes the top story if no bargain appears in lame duck.

Lots of good short clips of tv news anchors saying __ voted for Speaker Madigan. They can go ahead and produce the 2018 commercials the next day.

Comment by m Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:33 am
Beiser, Stuart, and Phelps should vote for Costello.

Comment by Mittuns Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:33 am
She also had a very talented staff. They deserve credit.

Comment by Tom Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:43 am
Historically, the only non-negotiable vote, in Madigan’s mind, has been for Speaker. He has surprisingly flexible on many other things. Then again, one of these days he’s going to have to start implementing his ultimate transition plan. No doubt he has options in mind.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 11:59 am
So weaken the power of the Speakers office, put Durkin in as Speaker. And then blast him and Rauner for not passing a balanced budget.

Won’t happen but would be fun to watch.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 12:42 pm
Katie Stuart could get up during the vote and blast Madigan until she’s blue in the face and loudly vote for Jim Durkin…and in 18 months she will still have her name and face next to Madigan in mailers and tv ads.

Comment by Signal and Noise Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 12:51 pm
The next election cycle will be interesting. I am guessing the ILDP will hammer GOP candidates as being bought and paid for by Rauner.

Rauner may not be as unpopular as MJM, but he ain’t popular. And we see how stuff can stick.

BTW- Saying the GOP is bought and paid for by Rauner is much closer to the truth than saying ILDP members are controlled by MJM.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 1:24 pm